Fun in the sun
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 2nd, 2010
It’s hot in New York at the moment and that’s thrown up some decent markets in the US Open. Nobody seems sacred in the heat and several contenders are already out, but Murray put in a good performance.
I’ve traded the US Open a lot more this year, mainly thanks to being able to ultilise Tennis Trader. For some time I’ve wanted to trade Tennis more often, so it was an important tool to have before I could trade with increased confidence. My instinct has always been to model sports as best I can before I get heavily involved in them. When you model you can participate in a market based on facts, rather than ‘feel’. For a fair while I’ve used a spreadsheet for Tennis, but this was cumbersome and not fast enough. Now we have put Tennis Trader into Bet Angel its helped a lot!
At the end of the day you can sit and stare at a market for years to try and understand how odds move, but having some stats right in front of you is always going to be immensly helpful and it also cuts out a lot of experimentation. I’ve learnt a lot from being able to mess around with different scenarios endlessly. The main purpose I use it for is to see what the score needs to be to fulfilled to reach an upside target, but I’ll also look ahead before I enter the market to see what downside I could let myself in for! This has allowed me to trade with increased confidence and larger stakes. One interesting thing I have noticed is how, when the odds drift slightly from the forecast, you can see that the market is changing opinion on a player. I’d never really noicted that before and is often providing a good entry point to the market.
I’m really looking forward to the next few rounds!
Impossible?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 31st, 2010
When I was young I was constantly reminded how some things were just impossible. I had many dreams, but a difficult start in life meant they were very very distant. I also had no mentor, guide or path on how to achieve the things I so dearly wanted to. This was going to be hard work. I saw my father suffer at the hands of fate at a young age and this was a pivitol moment. It could have reinforced any negative thoughts I harboured, but it actually drove me to make sure I did my best to achieve some of the things I really wanted to. That key moment gave me my drive. Sometimes you need that to fill in the skill gaps!
I started to read up and understand how others had been succesfull. A lot of them extoled the virtues of a positive mental attitude, a can do approach, a how not a why. At first this sounded like a load of BS, but over time I slowly realised that if you surround yourself with postive thoughts and people, while discarding negative thoughts and people, you slowly began to accept that anything is possible with enough effort and application. I learnt that nothing is completely impossible, just sometimes very difficult. Also, sometimes, you needed a bit of luck as well. But even that taught me something, that luck is where opportunity meets ability. Negative thinkers just never spot the opportunity.
What’s the source of this ramble? Tonight on Discovery channel there is a must watch film for everybody. It is the story of Philippe Petit, the film ‘Man on a wire‘. It’s an Oscar winner and one of the most inspirational films I have ever watched. The story and the man behind the film is a great example of ‘Anything is possible’. Also, listen carefully to Petit’s philosophy of life, it is refreshing and inspiring.
On my next trip to New York I’m going to seek out Petit to see if I can get five mintes with him, it would be a pleasure to meet him. Impossible? That’s what people said when I told them I wanted to meet Warren Buffett.
Blackberry picking
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 30th, 2010
Went out with the children this weekend to gather berries. At this time of year mother nature provides a feast right on your doorstep and it’s missed by many people. We gathered a whole variety of fruit from local ‘common’ areas, popped them in boxes, took them home and made some pies and crumbles. It’s something I’ve done as long as I can remember.
While advising the children which fruits to pick I realised that it’s not unlike participating in any market. You are never under any obligation to take a position in market. You are also under no obligation to be right every time. Therefore you know that there are good and bad opportunities. You also know that if you skip the current ‘opportunity’ then it is likely another one will be nearby. So if you are not sure, there is nothing wrong with just doing nothing. Unfortunately many people can’t.
There are tens of thousands of betting markets each year that pass in front of your eyes and many opportunies that come and go in each one. Picking and choosing ones that are ripe, makes more sense than ones where you can’t see a clear opportunity. If you look hard enough, or wait long enough, then a clear opportunity will appear without you doing a thing. Trying to make the best out of everything in front of you often means you don’t do a good job. Of course, part of the skill is spotting the opportunity, but the more berries you taste the quicker you will know which ones are ripe and which ones to avoid.
So there you have it, go pick some berries.
You don't have to pick and try to eat unripe ones!
Arrest over test cricket ‘betting scam’
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 29th, 2010
Another story in the press this morning about another alleged betting scam.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11122388
The News of World appear to really savour these stories, perhaps will a little too much vigour? But there is no doubt that sport should be played for the right reasons and any corruption should definitely be rooted out. If you are in any doubt as to why gambling has a sullied reputation, its stories like these that produce it. Let’s hope that publicity like this will make any corrupt sportsman think twice before even thinking anything like this could be deemed acceptable behaviour.
Underrated strategy
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 27th, 2010
I covered the ‘lay the field’ strategy in some depth in racing ahead magazine a couple of months or so ago, it’s an easy strategy that works well and has been popular amongst exchange users for years. On Bet Angel you just need to set the odds, a value and click to lay the field.
To make it work, all you need to do is look for a market with a great deal of uncertainty about it. One market that was well qualified recently to fulfil this criteria was the Aston Villa next manager market. In fact most next manager markets exhibit similar characteristics and you can profit if you lay the field early on in these markets. A competitive handicap in racing over a short distance can also be fun!
Currently in the Aston Villa next manager market, these are the lowest traded odds: -
Bob Bradley – 1.43
Sven GE – 2.00
Kevin MacDonland – 2.32
Martin Jol – 5.00
Gareth Southgate – 6.00
Laying the field at less than 3.00′s would have been a viable strategy here and it’s possible that others may still come into contention.
A worthwhile strategy in your armoury.
Paddy Powers on
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 25th, 2010
It’s easy to forget in this modern age of betting exchanges that traditional bookmakers are still around and still going strong. Paddy Power just released results which showed that gross win was up 117% to €112m and operating profit up 66% to €36.1m. Online betting accounts for 73% of the group’s operating profit.
Paddy Power said profit before tax for the six months to June 30 grew 54% to €52.5m. In 2009 Betfair earned £42m for the whole year.
Paddy Power said an “exceptional” World Cup tournament generated total gross win of €18m (€12m in the period), a more than four-fold increase compared to Euro 2008 and the World Cup 2006.
Betfair eyes up filipino
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 24th, 2010
Having made its first major move into the Asian gaming market last year with an agreement to provide IT solutions to Interactive Entertainment Solutions Technologies (IEST), operator of a betting exchange in the Philippines, Betfair has now been offered a 40 per cent stake in IEST worth US$15m by Philippines-based Diversified Financial Network Inc (DFNN).
DFNN notified the Philippine Stock Exchange this week that IEST and Betfair had defined an option agreement for Betfair to acquire a 40 per cent stake in the company at a value of $15m. DFNN told the Philippine Stock Exchange that Betfair’s option to acquire the stake is valid until August 19th 2011 and may be exercised at any time before expiry.
IEST is a unit of Pacific Gaming Investments Pte Ltd, owned by Diversified Financial Network Inc – a leading IT solutions provider in the Philippines.
Goodbye Windsor
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 23rd, 2010
I’m not leaving, but Windsor is. That’s it for the summer evening racing at Windsor and it marks that week that we transition to all weather only evening racing. The downside is you now have no get out of jail cards for a poor afternoon, good news is your social diary suddenly widens!
I managed to finish the last Windsor evening race of the year with a healthy £155 profit, but the rest of the day was a bit torrid. I didn’t enjoy it much and I know it wasn’t a great card, but the liquidity was poor and this made it tough.
To take less risk you need a good fill rate. When the market is filling orders quickly you can zip in and out of the market without too many problems. When it doesn’t fill very quickly you can be left with duff positions, especially if you use higher stakes. Today I had a lot of duff positions! As I exit the summer I think it’s clearer than ever that a lot of the racing markets on Betfair are not growing. I don’t think that’s a problem for most, but having been on Betfair for so long I’m increasingly running out of room to grow, either in depth or breadth. So that will be one of the things I’ll be looking at in the winter. My emphasis is definitely changing.
Any how, make the most of the remaining fixtures this week as it won’t be back until Spring!
Murray vs Fish
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 20th, 2010
This match caught my eye this evening because of the match they played at Queens earlier this year.
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2010/06/10/bad-light-stops-fish/
I think this could be a good trading match as Murray is ranked higher but Fish has won the last two encounters. Tennis Trader predicts Murray will be trading at 1.19 or thereabouts if he wins the first set.
As this is a three set match you will see some lovely swings if the match goes to 1-1. The last set should throw up some huge swings if it’s competitive.
Eboring
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 19th, 2010
OK the racing has been entertaining, but the trading has been less fulfilling and lacked a bit of spark about it. This is probably due to a participant(s) in the market that is causing grief for quite a few traders.
On Tuesday I seriously underperformed in light of this activity, but on Wednesday I turned it around having monitored the activity. I think that’s the problem with this tactic, it is easily exposed. We put the autotrading spreadsheet on the market using small stakes and analysed the resultant data to understand what is really going on. This answered quite a few questions for us, but still left some unanswered; but it was a big step forward. We think this person could get seriously caught out given the right situation occurring in the market, so we are just waiting for the that opportunity. We will continue to monitor this unusual activity.
The Ebor turned over £1.6m vs £2.3m last year but on a like for like basis it was about level. I underperformed on this race, but still got a reasonable result.
York Ebor meeting
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 17th, 2010
I’m looking forward to this meeting, but I don’t know what to expect from it.
Last year I absolutely sailed through the week but this was against the same period in the previous year when the meeting didn’t even take place. It’s difficult to reliably compare the coming week with a week from three or four years ago. But it’s safe to say that I expect this week to be better than the last two weeks.
Traditionally the space filled between two big meetings in racing can be pretty disappointing. That’s pretty much what we’ve seen since Goodwood. So I approach this week with raised hopes, let’s hope it delivers.
Good luck whatever you do!
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 16th, 2010
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I will be keep tabs on Blackpool.
Liverpool’s match against Arsenal was interesting and it played out pretty much as expected. Liverpool didn’t want to lose and neither did Arsenal. But Arsenal were lucky in the end to get the point. I still don’t think that Liverpool are title challengers.
Andy Murray did a fantastic job in defeating Nadal and Federer on his way to the title in Toronto. You shouldn’t read too much emphasis on this title. Most elite athletes will focus on key objectives. Nadal will be very focused on the US open in this tournament will have been a prep for that but not the real deal. Both Nadal and Federer will not be too disappointed at losing. But an excellent win nonetheless for Murray given his path to the title.
I got some kudos at the weekend for correctly predicting the result and score from Portsmouth vs Reading match. The local newspaper asked me to do a write up. So I guess I will be asked again until my luck runs out!
Working holiday
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 16th, 2010
I can now finally explain my ‘very satisfying‘ comment from a little while back.
Under duress from my wife and kids, this year we decided to have some time off in August. I usually holiday in the winter when the sporting schedule is very quiet. But this year we took a summer holiday as well. With the summer sporting schedule in full flow it would prove very costly financially to just take time off. So it was a ‘working’ week. At first this sounds a bit odd, but not when you put a few pieces together.
Most sports events don’t start till later in the day in the summer and go into the evening. So that leaves the morning and early afternoon to spend time with the family, not just on holiday of course, but throughout the summer holidays. When the evening is over there is plenty of time there also, so there is only a small section of the day when you are incommunicado. On holiday, early mornings would be spent out and about at different locations and down the beach, before returning for the afternoon session. As the evening set in we would invite some people round; sit on the patio, eat drink and be merry, while we watched the ships float past. It was idyllic. It made me think again about making some lifestyle choices. I have been determined my whole life not to relive the same year again and again and promised I would treat myself given the chance. I have often failed to do so!
It took some planning as we need to find a nice place to stay but one that also had decent broadband and a satellite access. We found the place and it was perfect! I enjoyed it so much I am sure it could be a regular activity. Here are some images of my temporary set up and the view in both directions.
Betfair for the iPad
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 12th, 2010
I see Betfair have launched an iPad app. I quickly downloaded it but there isn’t a great deal to it at the moment, so don’t rush.
As the iPad has a much bigger screen it is possible to log in and operate via the Betfair web site which works pretty well, thought the username and password entry can be a pain. Simple additions like viewing my P&L for the day would make this app useful but that’s not available, just an account balance etc, the same as on the iPhone app. Also, like the iPhone, it uses the battery hungry location services to make sure you are betting from a legal territory, this is a real pain. Unless Betfair improve this app, I don’t really see it being of great use to me at the moment.
However, If you are interested in downloading it here is the link: -
http://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/betfair-for-ipad/id384896490?mt=8
Are England Hungary enough?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 11th, 2010
After that rather forgettable world cup campaign do England have enough enthusiasm to munch through some goals against Hungary?
Some new blood is expected to be on the pitch this evening but I can’t muster much enthusiasm for the match. From a betting and trading perspective I don’t like friendlies as it’s difficult to really establish what the true price should be. That makes recommending a really viable and worthwhile strategy incredibly tough. I struggle to participate in things I don’t understand or can’t model and friendlies fall right into that category.
The market is pricing in three goals in total and 2.40 of those to England so it should be a comfortable England win. I think the most ‘interesting’ bet though is from Paddy Power. You can get 5/1 on “Any England player to be caught giving an offensive gesture to the crowd”
First trade of the premiership season
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 10th, 2010
It’s not often that the first decent trade of the season occurs before the season has started, but have a look at the odds on the Aston Villa’s first match of the season against West Ham.
With a lack of funds available for transfers it was quite likely O’Neill may get upset, though I am not sure many anticipated his departure. If you read the August edition of Gambling magazine you will see I hinted at clubs where this could happen. To quote from the article “Several teams like Aston Villa, Bolton, Fulham and Sunderland face high
wage bills in terms of their overall level of indebtedness and that could put pressure on these teams.”
The effect of the depature on the team is obviously going to be negative and the market is in the process of discounting that now into the price. It’s probably gone far enough now.
Woods slumps to career worst
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 9th, 2010
Woods finished on 18 over at the WCG Bridgstone in Wisconsin, his worst performance as a professional. Playing at elite level in any sport is often about state of mind and Woods is obviously struggling at the moment. I’m suprised at the prices he has been offered to win these tournaments. His lack of form since returning from his break has thrown up many quality trading opportunities.
For the full story head on over to ESPN which has a good summary of the story: -
http://sports.espn.go.com/golf/columns/story?columnist=harig_bob&id=5447166
You thought racing had integrity issues!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 8th, 2010
Formula one race fixed at the weekend, some strange moves in odds on Tennis matches. Thses have all be topped by this remarkable boxing ‘match’. At least the winner had something to say about it.
Full story here: -
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/boxing/betting-stink-over-fight-farce/story-e6freygr-1225895840688
All 29 seconds seconds of the ’bout’ here: -
Very satisfying
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 6th, 2010
Managed to put in a decent session yesterday and the result was very satisfying. Given the huge number of races on yesterday the total was expected, though higher than forecast, but it was the manner in which it was achieved that was the key. Slightly cryptic, but I will explain more next week.
Undercover boss C4 – 9pm tonight
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 5th, 2010
This should be quite a revealing documentary this evening: -
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/unde … /episode-4
Paul Fisher is the boss of Jockey Club Racecourses, the largest and most successful organisation in the competitive world of British horseracing.
He’ll pose as Richard Setter, a new casual employee, who is trying out entry level jobs in the world of horse racing to find out how his company works from the bottom up.
Betfair API problems
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 4th, 2010
Just a short note to confirm that there were problems with the Betfair API this afternoon. For those that are new to Bet Angel you may be interested to know that we support API and non API connections. In the event of an API issue you can just switch from one mode to another to carry on you activity. There are some differences between the modes so make sure you are aware of those before switching connection mode.
That went well
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 2nd, 2010
Goodwood ended up much better than I expected and I comfortably beat all my previous years totals. July as a month was also a cracker and was particularly pleasing because I managed to pull in a record month.
It’s a great confidence booster to get a record month after a decade on the markets. I never take anything for granted and have always felt that I and everybody, has to earn their place in the market. It’s naive to assume that the markets will get easier and easier as time passes so you have to assume they get harder. I always parallel this effect it to watching a pop concert. It’s the same in most markets.
In the early days on Betfair many things worked, but bit by bit the theater filled up and people starting jockeying for positions. The simple positions at the front filled up first and soon it was difficult to establish yourself there as you would have to push in and most people wouldn’t let you! From there the market reaches a natural point where most positions are occupied so people starting innovating by finding good positions elsewhere. Positions started filling up elsewhere and people find their little niche but in that niche they are always looking for a better view. If you stood on tip toes then you would surely be able to see more? But as soon as you do that though, everybody else does as well. It’s a game of constant shuffling.
Goodwood / New football season
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 30th, 2010
This is turning out to be a good week so far. I think the research I did last year and this has given me some confidence to know exactly what I should be doing and when, also when to not bother! I don’t think it’s been easy, but that gives me even more confidence given the fact I am making it work well.
Today is going to be very busy so I hope that I can end the week with a good performance. There are still many hurdles to be jumped, excuse the pun, before I can conclude it as a good Goodwood but I am certainly heading in the right direction.
I’ve started to turn my attention to the new football season. I don’t engage in pre-season friendlies and don’t let them shape my opinion, but I do carefully examine the transfer market. That is where the clues to the new season will lie. You can use any ratings system on the planet and whatever math you like. But it has always been the transfer market that holds most clues to the shape of next season.
Goodwood day two
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 29th, 2010
First race of the day struggled to stay in profit, small profit second race and a loss in the third. My winning run broken. But with the shackles off I threw caution to the wind and actually had a pretty reasonable day. It’s been pretty mixed though, but I am doing a better job than last year. I hope to keep that up for the next three days to complete a strong month.
The confusing thing is that I am unable to accurately predict which races I am going to do OK on. I am usually pretty good at this and can glance at a card and pick out some key opportunities. I can’t seem to do that this week, I’m stuck and having to be pretty re-active. It’s all working out though.
There are some interesting shenanigans going on in the 15:25 already, which I will keep an eye on. Good luck today what ever you are doing.
Positive start
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 28th, 2010
I didn’t expect Goodwood to be that easy and it wasn’t. But thanks to my preparation I did get off to a good start on the week. In fact I managed a clean sweep on all the races yesterday. Which meant, after carrying over races from Monday, I am entering today on 43 winning races in a row! While a run like that sounds great, it’s not. It just adds pressure to perform on the next race and you end up being cautious. Sometimes caution is not the right strategy. If you look closer at yesterday, I did manage a 30p and 34p race, not exactly impressive but a positive none the less. You need a bit of luck to put a run together and both those races involved a huge slice to get them positive before the off.
This morning I am sifting through all the data I collected yesterday to see what I can learn from it. If you are active in the market and put a lot of orders through, its often worth spend an hour or so doing this. It can tell you a lot about how the market is acting. I run a spreadsheet which acts as my gatherer of ‘control’ data and I match the two and analyse my performance against what is happening in the market in general. It can give you some great insights. Incidentally my control spreadsheet, which trades at random, put through just over £2k yesterday, it lost on £8. Hidden in that stat is a very clear message for all market participants.
I don’t have particularly high expectations for today, but that’s usually a sensible approach. It makes any expectations much easier to beat! I’m actually feel a bit poorly today, so I may not be on my best form. I think I may be burning out a bit after a really busy summer, so I definitely think an enforced break may be on the cards! I’ve been keen to chase down some really long term targets this year but I think I have been pushing myself a little hard.
I hope you had a positive start and with at least a couple of additional cards on this afternoon hopefully you can find something in the markets.
Glorious Goodwood?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 27th, 2010
Goodwood starts today and I must say that in previous years I’ve often struggled to make this a glorious week. Goodwood does not seem a lucky course for me. Last year I had to work hard to try and get things right and it took me most of the week to get it and by then it was too late. This year I am better prepared so hope to do better.
We also have the Galway summer festival this week. That should add some interesting elements to the card and that combined with Goodwood should make for an above average situation this week.
Goodwood is one of my favourite courses. If you get the chance to go there, please do so. The surrounding countryside makes for a unique racing experiance. Chichester is a very pleasant town and there are some nice villages on the coast. Bosham is a fun place to go and visit. But don’t park near the shore, the tide rushes in very quickly and gets very high. Many a time I have seen a sumerged car there. Worth a visit!
The car park in Bosham
Off to the House of Lords
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 26th, 2010
I have been invited to the House of Lords today. I have been to Parliament before, when I was lobbying on an act of Parliament at the committee stage. But I have never been into the depths of the upper house before.
Why? It’s a long story, that I may find time to explain at some point, but it’s to do with a charity. I am looking forward to it. I don’t think pictures are allowed in the upper house but if I get any, I will put them up on the blog.
Government to mop up betting cash
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 25th, 2010
Following a pledge by the UK coalition government, MP Don Foster has been asked to compile a report into abandoned betting accounts estimated to amount to millions of pounds which could be used to improve public sports facilities and clubs in the UK. Basically the government are looking at ways to access dormant cash in betting accounts. This is more or less the same initiative that they have embarked on with savings accounts.
For the full story visit this link: -
Just a month left
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 24th, 2010
I don’t want to depress you, but in a months time the summer racing calendar will be shutting down. Most of the major sports events will be out the way and the evenings in the UK will start to pull in.
The days of ample opportunity and get out of jail cards will have been served and your approach will have to shift slightly to adapt to the prevailing winds. It doesn’t mean that opportunity has gone, just changed shape a bit.
A few years ago I recognised that the summer had a very different feel to the autumn and winter and if you are just on racing alone, the winter can descend you into a state of torpor at times. You also, unfairly, bias your results to the summer. So I adapted and increased my activity on other markets and this has the effect of spreading out my results month on month over the year.
While the summer schedule is busy, I often feel that this busier period often leads to under performance. If you look at two days this week. They show different totals but have the same underlying theme, the average per race is quite low. This is simply because I am picking off clear cut opportunities. If I don’t see one, I don’t go for it. In the winter you don’t have that choice so you tend to work harder and often pull in better results.
The moral of this story is that a decline in opportunities isn’t such a bad thing as it could be made out to be. Also, there are so many markets out there, widen your remit to get a better all round performance. Till then, make hay while the sun shines.