Archive for March, 2009
Bet Angel on TV today!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 31st, 2009
After last weeks sponsorship of Wolverhampton, we are delighted to announce that we will be sponsoring the entire afternoon racing card at Southwell today, including the £18,000 class 2 feature race of the day. The races will be live on ‘attheraces’.
It’s a pleasure to make such a positive contribution, which we hope will bring more attention to the market. This can only be a plus for everybody involved. The last race of the day will be the ‘Win Bet Angel at win.betangel.com’ handicap. So why not visit http://win.betangel.com, register, and put yourself in with a chance of winning a copy!
Minimise losses with one click
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 30th, 2009
Maintaining discipline or exiting bad positions is a must if you want to get your trading expectancy positive. With this in mind we invented the one click stop loss. Setting the one click stop when you enter a trade means you don’t have to panic or procrastinate, whichever is your sin, when the trade goes wrong. In flash Bet Angel will exit your position before you have had time to ponder over whether it will charge off into the distance with your trading bank. Worth playing with if you have never used it before.
Best motor sports trade ever?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 29th, 2009
I made a post with this here a little while ago: -
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2009/03/13/we-are-not-competitive/
I am not skilled at motor racing sports or have a strong enough opinion to trade it regulary, but if a trainer came out and said that a horse was not competitive, you would expect the price to drift quite a bit. That’s what I felt would happen in the Formula 1 markets when I heard these comments by McClaren on the state of play on their F1 season. I am amazed it took so long to be discounted into the price of Lewis Hamilton. But looking at the chart you can see his price has drifted considerably since these comments came out, an excellent trade. Lowest price traded was 3.50, current price after testing at the Aussie GP, 10′s!!

The most predictable drift ever?
Flat packed
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 28th, 2009
Today we saw the turf flat racing season kick off at Doncaster. Things will start to get busier from here. They turned out to be pretty busy today as well! With the meeting at Nad Al Sheba running at the same time it was a busy day, but one that turned out to be quite tradable as well. Had a rollercoaster day but just like the ride I enjoyed it in the end and just wanted to get on again! Hope you had a good day.
I had a go at a few of the Nad Al Sheba races but only managed to pull out one reasonable result on the 16:40

Progress being made in the US?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 28th, 2009
Interesting article I bumped into the other day. It seems there is a softer approach on the way to US gambling. If the US does relax its prohibitive grip on on-line gambling it could take the market to a whole new level.
http://www.igamingnews.com/index.cfm?page=artlisting&tid=11271
Aussies ban Betfair
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 27th, 2009
Betfair CEO Andrew Twaits is outraged the multi-billion dollar company has been blacklisted under the government Internet content filters, a move set to annex tens of millions of dollars in local revenue. Read the full story here.
Bet Angel on TV this evening
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 26th, 2009
As we have previously undertaken, today we will be sponsoring an entire card of racing again. A large number of our customers owe it to the horse racing industry that they exist at all. So it seems a relatively straight forward gesture to return some of that money back into the sport. Obviously we will get some publicity as well!
Anyhow, enjoy the trading at our expense and if you get any decent trades in, send us a few screenshots to go with the other memorabilia we will collect. We hope you have a good day!
How odds really move
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 25th, 2009
Over many years I’ve modelled a number of different events to see how odds should move in those particular sports. I actually started doing this some time ago in my attempt to win the football pools. Therefore, the first ever market I tried to model was a football match. Back then I was just hunting for the reasons that a match ended in a draw. Over the years I expanded my knowledge to include a whole range of things and in much more complexity, detail and accuracy than I could ever have imagined. I actually enjoy doing this, regardless of any financial reward.
Somebody phoned me recently and asked me some questions about how odds move in a football match. Their questions surrounded backing 0-0, which incidentally is an very risky proposition. The main issue is that, on average, a goal occurs around every 35-38mins or so (subject to the match you are looking at). But the standard deviation on this is a whooping 25 mins! You would need to be very lucky to time an exit from this trade. Skill or exit strategies don’t really figure if you hold your position for any length of time, one goal and you are stuffed! During our conversation I explained something that the caller felt was very odd. So true to my word, here is a video explaining why odds can sometimes behave in a counter intuitive manner in a football match.
Fluke?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 23rd, 2009
Had an unexpected bonus at the weekend. Well I say unexpected, I do hunt for these sorts of opportunities as the effort costs little but the rewards are there if you look hard enough. Sports markets seem to be the sort of place where the harder you look, the luckier you get.
‘Little Hotpotch’ should go down in history as the one of, if not the worst SP for backers seen yet on Betfair. The SP volume was unusually high on this market. Even stranger was the money on this particular horse. Something was completely broken about this market and especially this selection. A horse at 1000 generally attracts little interest but this horse attracted £5733 on the exchange and £3297 at SP!!!!! The market itself was high by SP standards at nearly 4.7% but the amount on ‘Little Hotpotch’ was extraordinary, something very odd going on.
Anyhow, the SP seemed to be out of kilter with reality so I put a lay in at SP for a small amount. I should have been matched at 1000 but the lay resolved at just 41.35!! This it one of the most memorable trades in my career.
A fluke, for sure as I didn’t guess I would get such a favourable fill. I did figure out that when the market went in running this selection would trade at 1000. Knowing my maximum lay would also be 1000 there seemed little risk. I nearly fell off my chair when I was filled at just over 40.

Iffy start
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 20th, 2009
You could be forgiven for thinking this refers to the week or day, but no, this post is all about using TV pictures to trade. I tend to have at least one TV screen up and running with the volume set at a suitable level. In between poking around on the Bet Angel screen I am always listening to what is happening on course and looking for anything interesting. This week has thrown up lots of opportunities. The one I will highlight is ‘Iffy’. This horse was running at Ludlow and it lived up to it’s name.
Looking at the pictures, it looked remarkably reluctant to race and after several attempts it did eventually race, but someway behind the other horses. At the first since of recalcitrance the price started to drift and continued to do so till the start of the race, a relatively easy trading opportunity. From that point on the drift took on another dimension as the horse plodded off from the start. Eventually the jockey got ‘Iffy’ motoring back into contention but it ran out of steam.
This week has thrown up loads of these opportunities and a bit of a classic today when ‘King Penda’ chucked the jockey twice before eventually starting the race. This caused the price to drift from 5 to 8 at the start. Keeping an eye pictures is a useful way to exploit these sorts of opportunties and expand your trading.

1000-1 winners
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 19th, 2009
Ok, maybe that should be 999-1 winners. Been using the quieter time this week to drift through some data. Over the last two years guess how many winners at 1000 in horse racing have come in?
The answer may surprise you, according to Betfair data its 102 winners. All but one of those drifted to odds of 1000 in running, only one was 1000 before the race started and went on to win. Fortunately I actually bagged that one, but I have been trying for some time it has to be said.
Still, that number of 102 was higher than I suspected.
All things come, to he who waits
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 18th, 2009
Psychology is an important aspect of your activity on the markets. I often feel this is what separates somebody who can’t be succesful with somebody who can and also it can lift you from good to great. Having the right mindset makes a big difference. Throughout my life if I see somebody doing well my instinct has always been, “Hmm, that’s interesting I wonder what they are doing?”. Unfortunately in life you meet many people who do the opposite and would prefer to try and tarnish an achievement than give credit for it. In my experience that’s a very destructive way to look at things and shows up an errant mindset. One that will probably lead to a number of incorrect decisions.
I know it sounds corny but having a postivie attitude really does makes a huge amount of difference. As do a number of other traits such as being self critical. While watching Horizon yesterday evening I was interested in some of the comments that were passed through the presenter. I think there are some lessons in there for all of us.
One of the things they talked about was deferred gratification, I found this link by Googling ‘Marshmallow experiment’ if you are interested. The other thing that caught my attention was the interview with Carol Dweck and her reference to the concept of a ‘Growth mindset‘. Both interesting concepts and something I am sure will help you in your quest.
Post Cheltenham blues
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 17th, 2009
Well Cheltenham is in the past and we are now back to the regular mix of all sorts of stuff on the horse racing. Suddenly you have to get used to earning in a day what you could have achieved in one race last week! But don’t despair as we are now in the ramp up to the flat season. Between now and then though, typically a tougher period awaits.
Not all doom and gloom, just around the corner we have the Aintree grand national meeting and that will throw up interesting opportunities and then a few weeks later we will kick off the flat season with the Guineas meeting. In short there is plenty ahead of us to get excited about, even if this high profile festival is now history for another year.
Don’t look back, look forward.
Liverpool at it again
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 15th, 2009
If there is one recurring theme of football betting is has to be never to bet against Liverpool. Endlessly famously for the impossible comeback in Turin, Liverpool seem to constantly pull the rabbit out of the hat at the least likely moment.
Mid week they cost me some money by defeating Real Madrid 4-0. It’s not that I didn’t expect them to win, I just didn’t figure it would be by four goals! Yesterday they humbled the seemingly impervious Man Utd 4-1 at Old Trafford. No amount of stats or research would have thrown up that result for you. Mid week they were priced for a smidgen over 2 goals for the match with a slight advantage over Real. Yesterday was a similar scenario but in reverse, i.e. in favour of Man U, similar result! On this occasion I didn’t do anything, given the result midweek and the the extra day Liverpool had to recover.
I think this does show why a succesfull strategy on football really turns out to be a numbers game. While these results are ‘odd’ from a statistical perspective a delve through the records confirms that the world hasn’t suddenly changed it just that these sorts of results stick out more. That said, I’ll still reserve my right not to bet against Liverpool.
Golden day ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 13th, 2009
After what has been an excellent week we can look forward to the big day today. Thanks to all the users who have emailed me this with some excellent results and it’s great to see some exceptional totals out there. I’ve always been reluctant to post my figures up as I think they can often set false expectations but it’s great to see I was humbled on Tuesday!
Looking at the structure of the Gold Cup today it looks like it could be a significant race today from all perspectives. So I’ll be doing my best to pull something out the hat today across the card and on this race. Cheltenham has ‘felt’ much better this year after last years debacle. I still did better last year on the previous but this year has proved much better than expectations. Lets hope today tops off an excellent week.
Best of luck whatever you are doing and however you are doing it!
We are not competitive
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 13th, 2009
Interesting news coming out of the McLaren camp this week and finally an admission from McLaren on the state of their formula one season.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/7941572.stm
Doesn’t seem to be priced into the market at the moment but maybe people are waiting for more concrete evidence to emerge not just from McLaren but the other teams as well. Should be an interesting season.
Cause and effect
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 12th, 2009
Cause and effect refers to the philosophical concept of causality. Causality is about the relationship between one event (called cause) and another event (called effect) which is the direct consequence of the first.
I had a eureka moment at the weekend where I suddenty cottoned on to a fact I had been pursuing for a number of years. I love it when you get those moments, suddenly, all that was foggy becomes crystal clear. You wonder why you couldn’t see it before.
It also dawned on my that what everybody is really looking for is, causality or cause and effect. Look in anything hard enough and you will find it. I think this is particulary relevant on a betting market. The following video may help you understand where I am coming from!
Solid start despite cock up!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 10th, 2009
Got off to a solid start on the Cheltenham festival despite a bit of a cock up. Was busy trading the big race of the day when I figured out a lot of my orders were not going in the market. It took me ages to realise that the account I was using didn’t have the correct exposure limit! Doh!
It was too late to get the issue fully sorted at that moment in time so I just needed to do the best I could and sort out the issue after the race. It was frustrating as it was going well and I no doubt lost a lot of ground through my inability to put new orders through. Such is life. Ended up on a decent total for the day which gives me confidence for the week. But it could have been so much better! I’d obviously had the same issue up to that point but never realised.
Have a great Cheltenham
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 10th, 2009

First race of Cheltenham 2009
Typically with a large racing meeting like Cheltenham I look to get off to a steady start. I am happy to reach break even or a small loss just to get used to things. First race this year started off unexpectedly well with £175 green across the card, so my confidence has taken a boost. Had a good week last week and a decent Monday so confidence was high already. Now the first race is under my belt hopefully I can settle into a decent pattern for the rest of the day. Either that or this is hopelessly placed optimism.
Whatever it is I hope you have a cracking Cheltenham.
Why not be a robotrader?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 10th, 2009
For some time Bet Angel has had the capability to link to Excel. It’s not just a link, you can custom write tools, views of the market and all manner of wonderful things in a spreadsheet and get it to ‘talk’ to Betfair vis Bet Angel.
The Microsoft Excel integration not only allows you to view a market in Excelm but also trigger bets from the spreadsheet through Bet Angel. This isn’t just simple triggered betting however, we also allow you to send Bet Angel specific functions and bet characteristics using our unique scripting language.
Want to place an offset bet with a ten second fill or kill delay and a trailing stop? No problem. If you want to trade a certain price if something some happens, that’s possible. Only place a bet fifteen seconds in-play if the price on the favourite has drifted by a certain amount, that’s possible too. In fact just about anything is possible using the spreadsheet capability.
Whether you use the spreadsheet to monitor certain types of activity or to trade automatically its useful. Or why not become a robotrader and use Excel to help you in certain markets. A machine is often quicker to react to the market than a human so get it to enter a trade and you can manage it from there? The possibilities are endless.
Part one of three
Part two of three
Part three of three
Cheltenham tips
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 9th, 2009
After a couple of weeks behind the desk in full trading mode, a good Saturday and Monday behind me I am about as ready as I ever could be for Cheltenham. I just hope it is ready. Last year was really tough and was a big struggle based on the previous year. It felt completely different. I’d love to offer up a prediction for this year but I am afraid I can’t. I’ll probably have a better idea of how it feels tomorrow evening though. I’ll post up if I have any thoughts. Don’t take no post as a negative, just use it as an indication that I am too whacked out to post!
One thing you will will notice with the markets at Cheltenham is that there is a lot of money around. This tends to squash price movement and this can be a problem for people used to more volatile markets. If you think about this, rather than viewing it in a negative fashion, it also has some beneficial effects. In more volatile markets it is not uncommon to see a price move from say, 2′s to somewhere approaching 3′s. That doesn’t typically happen in the bigger markets, so you can take on more risk if you wish. It’s a high stakes game but one that works wonderfully well if you get it right.
My first objective is to try and get a £100k turnover race through as quickly as possible this week. If I can do that early in the week, I can set myself up for a crack at a record race later in the week. None of that is guaranteed of course, I could end up with a record loss, but there is no harm in trying!
Don’t wear a bikini in winter
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 9th, 2009
Bet Angel has quite a range of features, In total there are seven main areas. While it may seem daunting to use all of them , or you may feel more comfortable sticking to just one screen, you are quite likely to be missing out on some perfectly good strategies if you ignore any of these key areas.
It’s important to understand why this is. When we designed Bet Angel it was because of need, it wasn’t a marketing exercise or an effort to replace other income. That work continues to this date, in the background we are always testing and prodding the markets for new ideas or to improve performance. This week we are stress testing the latest version during one of the busiest weeks of the year. You have the comfort of knowing we carry the can first, if there are any issues!
People often ask me and other traders what features do they use the most? The simple fact is that each day I can find a use for pretty much all of it. Different markets across the card, the day or the week often require different approaches to maximise the opportunity.
With the Cheltenham festival this week mixed up with a variety of other types of racing, is a perfect time to try some of the other features on Bet Angel. Even if you are not used to them its worth experimenting with them, because they all exist for a reason.
Multi market trading
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 6th, 2009
Further to the introduction to Guardian I highlighted recently, here is a video showing you some multi market trading. In the video we skip backwards and forwards across multiple markets letting Bet Angel manage the trades as we go. Doing this will allow you to get more trades through the market and increase your potential profitability.
Lack of interest makes me gamble
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 5th, 2009
Today the Bank of England will get on with their string pushing efforts in an attempt to revive the economy, they will fail. At the moment all interest rate cuts have done is steal money from savers and they haven’t benefited borrowers whose rates remain HIGHER than the same time last year. As savers outnumber borrowers six to one, all the rate cuts seem to have done is impoverish the prudent. With cash now trash, I fancy a gamble with my money.
Nope, I’m not going to lump on a seller at Wolverhampton this evening, I’m going to buy some premium bonds. With the yield on normal savings virtually zero, almost certainly zero after today’s MPC meeting; premium bonds seem worth a punt. OK your chance of winning a big prize is very small but if you are going to earn nothing on the money anyway it seems like a bit of a value bet. Especially when you consider you can’t lose your stake.
Value in under 2.5 goal markets
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 4th, 2009
Thought you may find this interesting. Here are the prices for the under 2.5 goal markets on the premiership tonight. In the first column you can see the prices that were listed on Betfair and in the second column you can see my prices. The difference between the two will tell you if the markets represent value or not. For example, in the Fulham match you can see that the markets have rated the chance of under 2.5 goals at 1.84, where I have valued the true odds at 1.78. This means that the market is overpriced this and it represents value. You can see that Wigan versus West Ham is spot on.
I’ve studied football markets for a very long time and I can price the unders market very accurately, almost to 100% accuracy. So it just goes to show you that value still exists out there. Of course value doesn’t appear in one night it matures over hundreds or thousands of matches. So always bear that in mind when you seek value.
| Fulham | Hull |
1.84 |
1.78 |
| Man City | Aston Villa |
1.68 |
1.7 |
| Newcastle | Man Utd |
2.04 |
2.03 |
| Stoke | Bolton |
1.75 |
1.71 |
| Spurs | Middlesborough |
1.92 |
1.87 |
| Wigan | West Ham |
1.66 |
1.66 |
| Blackburn | Everton |
1.63 |
1.61 |
Can you feel it?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 4th, 2009
Some music to go with the post.
Anyhow, one important aspect of your activity on the market is to try and feel a market. A bit of an odd thing to say but it’s pretty important to know if you are doing the right thing. I know what markets should act like and how they should feel and this is one of things I discuss when I do a talk. If a market does not feel right or seems to behaving in a strange manner I immediately pull my stakes back down and try and work them back up. It’s no good charging into a market if it isn’t responding in the manner you expect.
You can put some science into it. I can forecast how much money is likely to be traded on a race many hours before it has started, I also talk about this at my course. This gives you some measure of whether the market is acting normally. Last week, lots of people emailed me to point out some strange behaviour in the markets which I also noticed. I suspect this was somebody experimenting in the markets. The net result was positive for everybody except the source of this activity I suspect. Things seem to have returned to normal now, but it shows that if you get a good feel for the markets then you can take advantage of these aberrations.
Banking on Gordon
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 3rd, 2009
Thanks to Scott Ferguson for pointing out this article on his blog. Ladbrokes have offered a market on the words Gordon Brown uses in his speech in the US.
I would have thought ‘Special relationship’ is the banker. ‘European Union’ has to be mentioned, for political reasons. ‘Hard working families’ looks good value as does ‘protectionism’ which is almost certain to be mentioned. With the weather dominant on the East coast ‘Snow’ has to be worth a shot as a comedic opener. However I think the real value bet is ‘Keynes’, I think Ladbrokes have mis-priced this at 20/1. I studied Keynes and his work a few years ago, read more here. With the BoE likely to drop rates to a mind numbing 0.5% this week in the UK, the only option left to the world leaders to turn this thing around is Keynesian style stimulus. Obama is embarking on this already. Keynes thought interest rates were exercises in string pushing and felt that the world wouldn’t have suffered such a depression in the 30′s if they had followed a strategy of public works spending, he was also very critical of the protectionism during this period. I don’t know how long Gordy has but if it is long enough, you would have thought there was a reasonable chance he would reference Keynes as justification for a number of policies. I think I will have a little punt on some of these.
How to set up multi market trading
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 2nd, 2009
One of the unique features of Bet Angel is that it will let you trade multiple markets at the same time. There is nothing complicated to setting up this feature. All you need to do is add the markets you would like to trade to Bet Angel’s Guardian feature. ‘Guardian’ allows Bet Angel to actively monitor your orders in each market and perform certain functions for you automatically.
Add a market to Bet Angel, fire in some orders and Bet Angel will do the rest. Here is a video explaining this feature.
February
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 2nd, 2009
If you are a regular reader of the blog you will know that I didn’t do a great deal for Febuary for personal reasons.
You will be interested to know however, that I still did almost as well as I did in Feb 2006! Based on the fact I only really did the last week, that shows you the sort of growth that has taken place since then. On my return to work at the end of the month things were pretty settled and fairly normal so I am looking forward to March with much interest. Of course the feature is the Cheltenham meeting. It was spoiled a bit last year by the weather and that made it super tough. I hope that this year is a bit easier. March should see an uptick in your fortunes. I like this time of year as the garden starts growing and it’s a good reminder that spring and summer are not far away.
The problem I find, having been in the market for nearly nine years, is that I can’t help comparing results with prior years. No matter how clever you get, it is always difficult to compare as many things occur that influence results and shape your results. So try not to get hung up on a bad week or month, they will occur for any number of reasons. It’s more important what you achieve over the year. Like wise, don’t think you are a god because of a great month.
When you start to think you have it cracked you start to get complacent and that ultimately leads to failure. Seeing others fail or clearly head off down the wrong path acts as a constant reminder to me to keep pushing forward and to be self critical.
Geocaching
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 2nd, 2009
Ok, slightly off subject but if you are at a lose end and looking for something to do; or, like me, have three children that want constant entertaining why not have a go a geocaching?
I discovered the joys of geocaching while fiddling with my Iphone. It’s basically a worldwide treasure hunt using GPS. I was amazed to know that there are around 8,000 locations within 50 miles of my house. So on Sunday I went out with the children to discover a few of them. It’s amazing where some of them are located and you soon realise that you have been walking right past them while hundreds of people have been stopping off and signing in.
For more information visit http://www.geocaching.com/

