Archive for April, 2009
Chaos at Folkstone
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 30th, 2009
Not sure I have seen a race like this for some time. Two jockeys chucked before the start on the way to post. Horses run to post. Another horse chucks a jockey at the start. All the horses load when one plays up and gets stuck under the gate. All horses come out and are reloaded, another horse fails to run!
5 out 10 horses played up of which two were withdrawn, not sure I have ever seen that before!
Champions league – Past performance
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 29th, 2009
When you read a financial sales letter or advertisment, they always put that little caveat in that “past performance is not an indicator of future performance”, how apt in the current environment!!! You may be interested to know this often afflicts the betting market also.
It seems to be a classic case of placing too much reliance on past activity. What you often tend to find is that if something unusual has happened recently people think it has a higher chance of happening again. It’s like watching people playing roulette and upping their stake, just because red has come in six times in a row.
For a more recent example look at tonights champions league. Based upon the free scoring quarter finals you may find that tonights market gets mis-priced at the higher end of the market, i.e. it makes sense to lay and vice versa. I’m tempted to put this into use tonight on the correct score market. It may not work tonight but I am pretty sure that over the long term I will end ahead as that’s always been the case.
You may want to try using the ducthing to a profit target option to take advantage of the many opportunities and potential strategies in play on the correct score market. I’ve embedded a video of this function. This is where I will be lurking tonight.
Laying low
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 26th, 2009
Never one to miss an opportunity to bet or analyse a sporting event, four years ago I was watching the London marathon with my laptop beside me recording and betting on the event. Being a former marathon runner I knew that front running a long distance race was a mighty task and I thought that maybe after her Athen’s exploits this race could determine how Paula Radcliffes running career went from here. I expected her to front run but expected at some point that the odds may come back once she hit the front.
Her starting odds were 1.38 and as the race got underway she hit the front and looked strong showing no signs of obvious distress. It should be said though that with Paula this is somewhat difficult to spot thanks to her unorthodox nodding donkey running style. One hour into the race her odds had dropped significantly as her competitors struggled to keep up and she was now available to back at 1.14. The odds were coming in quite quickly and she hadn’t even reached half way! I felt it would be worth laying some money at short odds. One hour and forty five minutes into the race she was trading a 1.01 to back. At these odds your downside was £10 and your potential upside, if she failed to win was £1000. You would place this bet in the hope that she would tire or something unusual would happen such as a strong contender emerging from the field forcing the odds back out. Barely five minutes later things began to happen. First the odds moved out to 1.02, then fifty seconds later 1.03, fifteen seconds later 1.04. I kept looking at the TV to figure if I was missing something then suddenly Paula stopped.
The exchange market went crazy and the commentators couldn’t quite grasp what was happening. The market reacted quickly and people started exiting their positions in panic. Thirty seconds after I pondered what was happening her price on the exchanges had rocketed out to 1.50. As quickly as it hit that height it sunk back when people realised that this wasn’t an athlete breaking down mid race more a ‘stopover’.
Which just goes to show that when some body advises you to lay low you should not keep out of the public spotlight for a while you should get onto an exchange and offer up lots of money at very short odds!
Ouch!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 25th, 2009
Not having a great day today, but Leicester just compounded that with a £126 loss. I was fine on the ‘feature’ race if not making much money. Therefore, I held my position in the market till right on the last moment. At that point the price shot away and I suddenly had a big loss on the cards. Looks like somebody who had faster pictures took advantage of them and walked away with my money. This on a day when I really could have done with a much better result. Such is life. Just a reminder on the short races to not leave it to the last second I guess!
A marathon, not a sprint
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 25th, 2009
It’s the London marathon this weekend and I’ll be there, but not running. Just watching and cheering on a few friends. For most of my life, trainers were an ever present part of my lugguge where ever I travelled. In my time I ran over 200 long distance road races all over the place and two London marathons, one competitively and one for charity. In 1996 I found myself in the right place at the right time and made it into the Times when I ended up doing the press tour with Steve Coppell and various other celebrities for the 96 London Marathon, spot the odd one out! I also appeared on Radio Five live.
Unfortunately, it was downhill from that point as I was unlucky with injuries. In the space of two years I went from decent club runner to also ran when, amongst other issues, I ruptured my achilles tendon. I never recovered from my injuries and now its really painful to run, so I’ve pretty much had to hang up my trainers. I go out for a shuffle now and again, no longer a run.
A marathon, not a sprint, is an often quoted phrase to back up the the old tortoise and hare fable. It took me years to work out that doing roughly the right things over a period of time produces the right result and it’s a lesson for us all. While I no longer run marathons, I still get inspiration from that simple phrase.
An easy 40% profit
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 23rd, 2009
You may remember this post from 1st April where I felt this was a clear opportunity: -
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2009/04/01/going-down-out-or-both/
Today this bet came in with news that they will be deducted 10 points.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/s/southampton/8014811.stm
Well done to those that followed the bet, but it couldn’t have been many as the price has stayed at 1.40′s or so for ages! I have to say this was a pretty easy spot given the number of clubs that have gone into administration in recent years.
Budget hit for gamblers
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 23rd, 2009
Bingo club owners amongst other operates in the UK were miffed yesterday when the budget lumped more tax on an already highly taxed sector. It’s likely the net tax increase was put in the budget because most of the electorate will not be directly aware of the increases.
Full story here: -
Betfair Partners with Cricket Board
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 22nd, 2009
Last week England & Wales Cricket Board, or ECB, named Betfair its official betting partner in addition to being an official betting partner of The Test Match Grounds.
Brokered by Essentially Group, the partnership allows Betfair to place the ECB logo on items and also includes perimeter boards, tri-vision sight screen and replay screen advertising, product sampling and promotional activity at the eight Test match grounds across English cricket.
“The npower Ashes Series will be the biggest sporting event of the summer and provides the perfect platform to take our growing brand to a wider consumer market,” said Lee Cowles, Betfair’s director of sports, specials and casino, in a company statement.
Letter from Darley Stud
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 20th, 2009
It’s nice to know our efforts are appreciated by the racing industry. Sponsorship is an altruistic process for a small organisation like us. We certainly don’t expect to see instant rewards, but it’s great to know our efforts are taken the right way and received in the manner it was intend. Hopefully it has also raised the profile of trading on exchanges for everybody.
We received a letter last week from Darley about our recent sponsorship. It’s nice to see the letter and such professionalism in the sport, it’s given everybody who works in our team a nice boost. It reads as follows: -
“On behalf of Skiekh Amhed I am writing to to say thank you for your kind sponsorship of the ‘Win Bet Angel at win.betangel.com Handicap’ at Southwell on Tuesday 31st March 2009. We were delighted to have ‘Hunterview’ win the race.
We are all well aware of the important role that sponsors play within the racing industry and we would like to take this opportunity to express our appreciation of your support.
Thank you once again.”
Long term trading using trailing stops
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 18th, 2009
Further to my last post on the blog if you are looking to catch longer, bigger market moves, then this is a useful set up to do exactly that. The great thing about this type of trade is you don’t need to actively manage it much. This means you can do this on multiple markets all at the same time and Bet Angel Guardian will look after this for you while you get on with your normal trading. Give it a try on small stakes to try it out.
Un-shifting sands?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 17th, 2009
I spend hours watching the markets, even if I am not in them. People often ask me how they have changed.
Over the nine years I have been in the markets, they have changed a lot. Curiously though, markets are not that different from the recent past, though I guess they are more competititve than a few years ago. We noticed a shift in 2005 when we launched Bet Angel, I’m not going to accept credit for that though. It just seemed at that point the trading market matured, It left a number of ‘old style’ traders in its wake. That’s why we watch the market, we are keen to understand it’s current shape.
In terms of how the market reacts and moves, you will be interested to know that the current market still acts in pretty much the same way it has done for a few years. What we are looking for is a seismic shift in the market. In recent times all we have seen is the odd tremor, but like a San Fransican sitting in the Bay Area, we haven’t had a 1906 yet. Thanks to this constant market watching over the years, I have learnt a great deal about what a day has in store, how it’s likely to react and what the key markets are etc. etc.
One thing that has taken longer to get used to is seasonality, I am confident that this year we may have finally sussed the longer cycles in the market and their impact. It’s made me more relaxed on the year as a whole. As we head through April and into May, things will start to get very busy.
Currently you will see some big moves in the market on quite a regular basis, a few years ago I wasn’t sure why, but now I know to expect them and when. While not every body enjoys this type of volatility its throws up big opportunities and if you are alert to them, there are some big moves to catch out there at this time of year.
A classic case for lay the draw?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 14th, 2009
Both champions league matches tonight are interesting from the viewpoint that somebody HAS to score. Liverpool have a mountain to climb after their comprehensive defeat at home and they must score to have any chance. They have nothing to lose. Much depends on whether Chelsea kill the game off or simply pack men behind the ball. I’m not sure what Hiddinks instructions will be? It’s quite possible they will just try to frustrate Liverpool and then catch them on the break when Liverpool push too far forward. Given history, this doesn’t look like a good plan as one early goal could really fire Liverpool up. I suspect though that Chelsea will not be adventerous for the same reason.
The market is priced for 2.58 goals and a slight advantage to Chelsea, but only slight.
Bayern Munich however need a bigger miracle and playing at home must surely score at least once! I suspect this will be all out Bayern attack as it doesn’t really matter if they can’t score. Barca will surely just sit back and try and nick a goal if they can and kill the tie. Whatever happens, Bayern will be desperate to make amends for some poor performances and will almost certainly do anything to get a goal or two. Of the two matches this is the one most likely to see a goal and the market has priced in at least three. You can’t have half a goal each so this looks like a good candidate for a lay the draw and trade out type position. There you go, I’ve cursed it now!
Make sure you use Soccer Mystic to work out your risk and profit scenarios for these games.
Mixed up Monday
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 13th, 2009
Ah, it’s that time of the year again when you are faced with the inpenetrable bank holiday markets. About a billion low quality races all going off at the same time! Often there is so much clashing and problems that next to nothing can be easily traded and if you can, you may not actually see the start itself. A risk in itself.
This particular Monday has never been a favourite of mine and two years ago I pulled in my second worst result ever on this day. As a consequence don’t feel you are missing much by skipping today!
Still without full use of my hand I have little option but to be home today, so I may have a go at some very carefully selected races, but I doubt I’ll all guns blazing today. The busy summer is almost on us, have a rest and enjoy some time off.
Electrifying end to the US Masters
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 12th, 2009
Already green I am sat down enjoying the final day of the masters and there is some fantastic golf being played. It could be a really exciting finish if this level of play is kept up. Great stuff.
US Masters golf – Todd Hamilton
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 11th, 2009
Hamilton will always be remembered for winning the UK open at odds of 1000. In the US Masters Hamilton was also priced at 1000 and is now 60′s. Any money placed on Hamilton at those starting odds would now be worth a greened up total of 15.67 times your indivdual stake on Hamilton!!! Food for thought!
Good from bad
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 11th, 2009
As I’ve mentioned before, having a positive outlook on things is always beneficial. When I was young, I used to think this was a motivational trick, but after a few years it began to dawn on me that always having a positive outlook was a useful trick. You tend to find in life that unexpected things happen for good and bad quite often. If you aren’t ready for the upside you will often miss it. Friday and Saturday was a classic example!
While I’m lucky in some things, I’m not in others. With a day off yesterday I took the children swimming. Near the end of the session I decided to nip into the sauna. After I had warmed up, I stood up and…………………. the next thing I knew I was flat on my back half in the sauna and half out the sauna. I’m still not sure what happened, but after laying in stunned silence for a short period of time one thing I did realise was that several things hurt. During my journey out of the sauna, I had successfully slammed my back on one of the benches, causing extensive bruising, ripped off a toe nail and had put out my hand to halt my fall. This successfully bent my fingers back and caused me to tear most of the supporting muscles in my hand. While my back is intact, my right hand is a write-off for the moment, as well as being double its normal size. So that’s the bad, where is the good?
Last night I really could not get comfortable in bed and spent most of the night trying not to aggravate my wounds. I did manage to get some sleep but by 5 AM I was fed up trying to get comfortable and decided to come downstairs. I switched on my PC and thought I would have a nose out what’s going on in Australia. Before long I was busy trading, having changed my mouse right-handed to left-handed, and actually really enjoyed it. By the time the rest of the family had woken up I had already got through a very successful trading session. Had it not been for my accident I probably never would have bothered getting up in the early hours to try the Australian racing. As it is, as long as I don’t mess up this afternoon I should have a bumper day. Next week I’ll try and avoid the pain in the first place and just go for the gain instead!
Masters first day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 9th, 2009
As expected Tiger drifted a bit before finishing strongly. I say a bit, at level stakes he moved 200% and now he is at much shorter prices. A good opportunity to green out, he looks in good form.
If you had dutched the ‘favourites’, all under 50′s including Tiger in this case. You would have LOST 11% of your stake value at the close of day one. In contrast if you had backed those ranging from 100-500 you would have GAINED 13%. I’m a healthy all green at close of play on day one so now contemplating if I play again before the cut.
Biggest postive mover on the day, Tiger, IP moved 6%, biggest negative Mickleson, IP moved -7%.
US Masters on the Iphone
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 9th, 2009
Just downloaded the US Masters Iphone app and I must say this is superb. A lot of other sports events could take a leaf out of the US Masters book and produce a similar app. No excuse now for not keeping in touch with all aspects of the tournament. Great stuff!
Master the masters
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 9th, 2009
While golf isn’t a main sport for me I do like to have a play around at some of the bigger tournaments. Here are a couple of hints for you.
It’s almost impossible for the favourite NOT to drift at some point during the tournament. So laying the favourite is a good strategy. Tiger woods always makes me nervous, but when you look at the game of golf you would need the favourite to have a perfect round and no dropped shots and no contenders for the price to only come in. As anybody who plays golf knows, that’s virtually impossible. A good round can be destroyed At 4′s Woods is more or less the same sort of price he has been in previous circumstances but you have to wonder how he will perform in his first major since his knee problems. Ever the professional, you wouldn’t bet on Woods having a mare. But taking an impassionate view it would be a fairy tale for him to blitz the field over four days.
Luck can play a big part in majors and one interesting aspect of stroke play golf is the cut. After two days you will lose a big chunk of the field when and how this happens can create opportunity if you back or lay the field. You often get complete outsiders coming in on the crest of a wave and this allows you to catch a big price and lay off at much smaller values. I often back 25% of the field at larger prices and hope that a big outsider has a good run at some point. If this comes early I will trade out, but often the cut will increase the chances of a profit. Even if you use tiny amounts of money backing something in the hundreds and trading off at lower prices can produce excellent results.
Suspended in dis-belief
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 8th, 2009
Despite my nervousness, as expressed in a previous post, I actually did pretty well last Saturday, in fact it wasn’t the delays on Betfair that caught me out in the end however. It was the late suspension of the 15:05! I already had an open lay bet in the market and closed the position as expected before the off. In fact I had several positions that I closed together.
When the market failed to appear in play I took screen shots and data from the race, knowing what was likely to happen next. Betfair decided to resettle the market.
The big issue I have when Betfair do this, is that it seems to be completely arbitrary. I know they throw the terms at you and quote ‘offical off time’ but I am just not sure where the ‘official’ off time comes from or how it is calculated. I know for an absoluete fact that all my positions where equal at the time the race actually started as I closed all positions together. I saw the start, even if Betfair didn’t!! However, when the market was re-settled some of those positions were settled as though some were open and some closed. Impossible when you consider that they all closed at exactly the same time. I have plenty of evidence to prove this simple fact.
You could be forgiven for thinking this rant is because I lost some money, but on this occasion I actually gained as a result of the error on Betfair, but it still annoys me something rotten. What I want are clearly defined rules, not arbitary ones, especially when incorrect in my eyes. I know when I placed the bets and when the market should have gone in play and I was out by that point. According to official off I wasn’t. It could have been very nasty if it had gone the other way.
Fortunately on this occassion it didn’t and I got a small bonus. But it worries me that there doesn’t seem to be any way to ensure this is a fair settlement. That’s concerning for everybody, what ever you do on the exchanges and however you do it.
Treacle trading
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 7th, 2009
I can’t remember a day when I was so nervous about using the exchanges.
On Saturday, Grand National day, my biggest concern was with the stability of Betfair itself. As the day wore on and we came to the traditional 3pm pinch point, things were slower but bearable for me. Speaking to some other traders and customers though, they didn’t feel comfortable with the delays and quit. I guess the strain on Betfair was so high that delays were inevitable.
We can only speculate why this was the case, whatever the cause, it was very frustrating. Despite this I managed to beat last years total on the race and the day but the week was a little weaker. With Cheltenham and Aintree now out of the way we can focus on all the fun and games we have in front of us for the summer. Having been in the market for so many years it takes an exceptional set of circumstances to hit a record race or week. So all I can do for the summer is work hard and hope these circumstances come together at some point. Here’s hoping.
Those nightmare moments!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 5th, 2009
Every now and again you get these odd nightmare moments that you don’t wish on anybody. Last weekend my main connection froze for a short period, but it wasn’t a problem as I always have a back up running. On this occasion though , the lock up occured right at the point just before the off and I was caught cold. By the time I had turned to my back up connection , only seconds later, I’d dropped £120 or so.
These are often defining moments. No matter how much luck was against me and the potential loss I had, I just took the hit. One of the biggest mistakes I see people make at moments like this, is hoping the position comes back to a better resolution. When it doesn’t, you will get hit hard. Trading is essentially a numbers gain, making fewer losses than profits, so failing to manage that will mean you are unlikely to make money longer term. If a trade turns to an outright gamble you will fail longer term, it’s just inevitable. Not having defined entry and exit points and a positive expectancy for your trading will ruin you longer term, as will chasing losses. It’s important to draw a firm line between the two.
Unfortunately there is nothing you can do about these things, they happen and should be part of your broader mix. Over time these ‘exceptional’ events tend to even out and that should give you comfort. But they only tend to even out over much longer periods. If you are reckless you may not get the chance to see the other side of the coin.
On this occasion the loss was pretty easy to overcome so it wasn’t a major problem, but if I had let this one go, my big liability would have come in and I would be nursing a much bigger loss. As we move away from the jumps season, a clean exit become increasingly more important. Never lose focus on that.
Get your Grand National sweepstake kit here
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 4th, 2009
Each year this is the one race that everybody has a bit of a punt on. Whether they nip to the bookies or do something via an office sweepstake this is one of the biggest betting events of the year. Bit of a lottery the national, but that doesn’t seem to stop people having a go each year. There are some hints and tips at http://www.grandnationalbettingtips.co.uk/, as well as an office sweepstake kit, so enjoy!
A lot of day to day racing on Betfair isn’t actually showing any growth year on year but some of the big meetings are showing good growth. In 2006 the amount of money matched at the off on the National was £5.2m, 2007 £6.5m and last year £9.3m!! Last year was also notable for the cock up with Betfair SP.
When the race got underway the SP wasn’t returned and then when it was, it did so with ‘Comple or Die’ returning a miserable 4.28, the worst SP from any bookmaker by far, most returned 7/1. Betfair decided to halt the settlement and resettle the market at a more ‘appropiate’ SP. They took the hit themselves in order to do this, we hope all goes smoothly today! My concern with Saturdays is that they don’t seem to be as stable as the weekdays so I hope Betfair’s servers are full on for the National.
Fair wind
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 3rd, 2009
It’s the big day tomorrow and I was looking for a good day and got one! I couldn’t seem to put a foot wrong today, well almost. I had a cock up on an early race that cost £30. Other than that it seems a fair wind blew through the markets today. I only had two losses out of 31 races, the other loss being £2 at Wolverhampton when I was on the phone to my sister!Not the best result, but the most obvious, of the day was on the 15:10. ‘Voy Por Ustedes’ gave some nice moves in the market as he went late to post. I meant to grab a screen shot of the chart before the off but forgot. However you can still see the swing in there, but more interestingly, you can see how the in running players played. You can see a definate floor and ceiling to the price in running, which is really interesting. It really shows up in the graph.
Oops!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 3rd, 2009
Just a short note to apoligise for the odd posts that appeared on the blog this morning. I have been trying to import some old stuff and it all got muddled up when I imported the wrong XML file. I have deleted the errant posts now and things should look normal again. I’ll try again at some other point!
Single click profit
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 3rd, 2009
As the one click stop video went down so well I thought I should also highlight the trade calculators we have had in Bet Angel for some time. You can fire up the trade calculators from any screen, as they are available at the top of Bet Angel. One is also built into the enchanced ladder interface.
The concept behind the trade calculator is to allow you to focus your attention on achieving the best exit from a market. As your position, hopefully, matures to a profit; you can focus on all the various indicators you wish to use.
Just one click on the trade calculator will get Bet Angel to put your closing order in. No need to move, drag or drop things. This saves you vital seconds on the exit and also allows you to focus on the numbers or charts in front of you rather than trying to work out where you should be clicking. I use it all the time as I found it helps my ability to spot the correct exit point thanks to not having to worry about the actual exit itself.
Aintree Antics
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 2nd, 2009
We just put the biggest jumps meeting behind us with the passing of Cheltenham, but Aintree still ranks up there when it comes to big race meetings. Most people know Aintree for the Grand National, I’m not taking bets on how many people ask me for a tip this week, but during the three day meeting there is plenty to get stuck into. It’s usually a good start to April before we enter the flat season proper. Here’s hoping for a good meeting!
Swinging Southwell
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 1st, 2009
You may think this refers to the antics of some people at the races on Tuesday but in fact it turns out that Tuesday was an excellent day for swing traders. Several races exhibited the classic set up for a decent swing trade and anybody sharp enough to spot it would have done well on Tuesday. It was great to see a new Bet Angel customer, Carl Harris, take advantage of the opportunity. Traditionally it’s gamblers that struggle to cope with the transition for punting to trading so it’s great to see a traditional punter trade well. I recorded a video of one the swings on Tuesday. I traded using larger stakes on my main account and a smaller amount on the secondary account. I’ll upload it to Bet Angel TV when I get the chance to add some commentary.
Going down, out or both?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 1st, 2009
This is all about a soccer trade. For some time I have been watching the odds on Southampton being relegated from the Championship. Southampton have been in a precarious financial position for some time and I fully expected them to fall foul of the league rule that says you will be deducted 10 points if your club goes into administration (goes out of business).
Today Southampton went into administration which should have meant almost certain relegation as I predicted months ago. However there is some confusion about whether the points deduction will take place as it seems the holding company has been put into administration but not the club itself?
They are still 1.40 odd to back for relegation but I can’t tell you any longer if that’s strictly value. Given Southamptons predicament though it looks quite likely they will be relegated anyhow, with or without the points deduction. You can read some of the discussion around the points deduction here. There may still be a decent opportunity to hand.