Archive for September, 2009
Racing wants more cash
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 30th, 2009
Really very interesting piece on the racing industry yesterday on the BBC web site. You can view the article here: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8280227.stm
You can download the entire Deloitte report by clicking this text, it’s a 7Mb file.
I won’t attempt to summarise or make an opinion on the report but I do think they are slightly off with their figures. Amounts wagered and the levy amount can’t really be compared across such different markets, but I do concede that racing could do with more money but this needs to be tied into modernisation. A big part of the gambling industry is utterly reliant on racing, but then again, the opposite is true also! I think a small increase in funding would surely help the industry which is seeing prize money fall away. But I also think they need to do more to encourage more people into the sport and through the turnstiles.
When I first started on Betfair I knew nothing about horse racing, now I quite enjoy it. That may not have happened if it were not for new technologies. I am sure if they invest in modernising the sport and the structure of the sport, it would pay rewards.
That was weird
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 29th, 2009
Some odd betting patterns at Warwick today, Abhainn was unexpectedly backed before the off from 8′s into 3′s. You can see from the price chart that the price asked was very definite. At the time I thought, ‘That was weird’. But you are never going to get upset at laying something for much less than you expected. That was only half the story, in running £10k was matched at 2.36. It won!
Congratulations Scott
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 29th, 2009
You have probably come across Scott’s blog, http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com
It’s always an interesting read. I am hopeful of a non sports post on their soon as Scott’s wife has just given birth. Just wanted to register my congratulations.
Better with ten men
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 28th, 2009
It’s always been frustrating to see people comment that a team seems to play better with ten men, the stats don’t back this up. That said, this isn’t a great example; as the team who had the player sent off did go on to win! However, you can see that the price reacted quite clearly when Da Silva was sent off.
I haven’t modelled a sending off accurately just yet but, I am getting there. On this occasion the market decreased Man Utd’s chance by 20% on the sending off. The upshot of this? It’s always worth watching players who already have a yellow card!
Are cats good at trading?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 27th, 2009
I did a post on rats trading, so I had to share this users post on the forum with you: -
“Don’t know if this has happened to anyone else, but was trading a 3rd favourite today, odds of 8 – 8.2. I just couldn’t get it right. Ended up losing £11 on the race before the 5 minute to go warning. At this I decided to have a break and went to the shop to get some fags. On coming back home I saw one of my new kittens draped over my pc mouse, sunning itself. I picked it up and put it on the chair so i could settle down for some more trading. I maximised my betfair account screen to see my P&L for the day after my £11 loss. To say I was shocked was an understatement!
I trade to a £1000 bank, and was trading to £100 on the 8 – 8.2 shot. My balance had increased by £728!! With my heart beating fast, I checked the account statement page and saw a back bet of £100 @ 8.6. Then it fell into place, my kitten must have Either trod on the mouse or lay on it and clicked the button, As I had left the cursor over the ladder. Tonight, that kittens had fresh salmon!”
Manipulators may be good
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 26th, 2009
Saw this interesting piece on Betfair’s website which talks about the role of market manipulators and how they make the market more efficient, not less, through their practices.
There was a post recently on this blog about spoofers that fits well into this piece. I guess that what ever market you are in, you are always going to get people trying to influence prices. I think this probably works better in some markets than others, so it’s probably a skill unto itself. One of the skills of reading a market is estimating exactly what is filling and where. If you have full market depth seeing the numbers creeping up next to the prices on the screen is helpful in determining if there is real pressure in a market or if the money flowing is just an optical illusion. Often you see lots of money apparently flowing around prices but very little seems to be getting matched.
If you are learning how to read the markets, its often worth recording a video to re-play at a later point. It can help you read the market better and learn from mistakes. Well recommended for beginners.
In esteemed company
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 25th, 2009
Just learn that one of the local pubs is hosting an official party conference this week. I may pop along to hear what will probably be some amusing policy decisions.
Hustle
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 25th, 2009
Was this a hustle or just a case of fat fingers? On Wednesday we saw another one of those odd moments when the price on something comes crashing in for no apparant reason. I posted up some examples on the blog before where I got something matched at tiny prices that should have been 1000. On this race we saw something matched at 10′s that really should have been 20′s, not just once but twice!
Premium charge anniversary
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 24th, 2009
It seems to have slipped quietly into the background, but in September last year we saw the announcement of the premium charge. After the furore of last year, there seems little fuss to ‘celebrate’ the anniversary. Maybe there really are only a few payers of the charge?
For my part, Betfair was an easy sell in the past. Get better odds and trade sports like financial markets. But the premium charge muddied that message somewhat. I think the post by Armida summed it up nicely.
I guess some of response to the charge comes from your perspective as well. If you have come from a background of successful involvement for a number of years then any new charge is going to hurt when the market is not growing at a core level, you don’t expect to pay more to get less. If you don’t have that background, then you have a different perspective and it turns into just another hurdle to overcome on a market where there are many. With the high level of churn in these markets, I imagine that helps bury any changes.
Speaking of changes, Betfair are due to tweak the charge again in October, in case you missed that announcement. I can’t see any mention of this anywhere other than in this thread so if anybody lets me know if there is an official announcement I’d be happy to link to it.
Iffy the comeback
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 23rd, 2009
I think I may have to buy this horse, I follow it’s fortunes so often. It ran, yes that’s right, it ran, this evening at Kempton. It has such a dodgy record for running I had my finger poised but it actually managed to race tonight. Maybe it’s something to do with longer races that it doesn’t like? Anyhow, for the record, here is its record: -
Greyhounds
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 23rd, 2009
Popped into the Greyhound markets last night. My interest was that Betfair were sponsoring it last night and I thought that may add some liquidity and make it worthwhile. Trading the dogs isn’t like the horses, it’s much more volatile but it generally works in a similar way and similar styles can apply.
I never get a massive amount out of the dogs but it can add a bit to the day. The funny thing about last night was the couple of big races. The TV camera swung to a Betfair screen and Gary Wiltshire described the money and odds available. It was just at the same time I dropped £2k into the market. There was only £2.1k or so to back the favourite so I was pretty much all of that, quite funny.
I pushed the boat out for the big race and ended up being around 15% of the total market! Sorry if I trod on anybodies toes but I’m always trying to look for new things to do where possible. I didn’t actually earn a great deal from the race but it was worth experimenting.
Return on turnover
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 22nd, 2009
While I’m in the mood let’s talk about return on turnover as well. I’ve tracked my return on turnover for some time as I feel this is the key to sustaining longevity in the market. It also tells you a lot about trading.
Adam Heathcote recently put up a spreadsheet sent by Betfair detailing how much he had turned over and earned this year. On this sheet is shows that Adam’s return on turnover was 0.17%. If you wind the clock back to an era where software didn’t exist and traders used screen refreshers, we have detailed public records of another trader that allows us to calculate their RoT, in fact they did it for us. It was 0.23%, 0.19% & 0.13%. You can see their edge was eroding year by year to the point where they stopped trading.
There is so little data out there for us to compare against, its interesting to see data exposed in this way. I’ve measured my rate for some time knowing that it is the key to maintaining my edge. If I see the rate declining I need to step in and take corrective action or learn new tricks! As it is, my rate is probably very high in comparison to the others I have seen using a similar style, so it looks like things are OK, for the moment. Basically, if you are trading, your return on turnover is going to be measured in 10ths of a % and this tallys with my experiance.
We can use the stats detailed to throw up another metric though. Let us use the poorest rate out there which was our trader of 5-6 years ago. They managed a 0.13% return, let us assume we could match this, in fact given Adam’s 0.17% return, lets set the bar much lower at 0.10% on average. To get £1, on average, from a race would therefore require an average turnover of £1000 per race!
If you are trading with £10′s it suddenly looks a bit daunting to squeeze £1 out of a race, but in fact, it’s not as daunting as it looks. This is because Betfair offer instant settlement. You don’t need to put £1000 in one go you can put ten lots of £100 instead, or 20 lots of £50. Not so daunting after all is it?
Strike rates
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 21st, 2009
I know I have got all excited about strike rates recently but….. I must insert some an important caveat when addressing strike rates in general, not all strikes rates are created equally.
If I get a monkey, I can give him a set up that gets him a 50% strike rate, not hard. With the same monkey I can increase this to 80-90% by tweaking some parameters. There is a simple trade, which requires more than monkey like intelligence, that will get you all the way up to an incredible 99.9%! But none of these rates tell the full story. All can be profitable or unprofitable depending on the result attached to that strike rate.
If I had a strike rate of 10%, you may consider me an idiot, but if I won 11 times my stake 10% of the time I would still be profitable. If I won 99% of the time but lost 100% of my trade value I really would be an idiot! Knowing what you have won and lost and how often is critical to working to a good trading strategy. It’s no good scalping for one tick if you loose a whole bunch when the market goes against you, despite having a decent strike rate. You will lose.
Obviously, nirvana is a high strike rate and big win. But this is generally something that does not goes hand in hand in any market, whether sports or financial. But knowing the key stats will tell you something critical, how much you can afford to lose!
For example, if you win 70% of the time, you know immediately where you should cut your losses. With a 70% strike rate you can afford to lose twice as much as win on average and you will still be profitable. Having the loose leash of twice your average profit as a upper limit to losses will immediately change the way you trade. But, of course, each style, strategy and personality has their own rates. Knowing and understanding them is the first step to successful trading.
Man Utd time
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 20th, 2009
Couldn’t help but watch the Manchester Derby. Man United desperately needed a late goal at home and guess what, the officials managed to find nearly seven minutes of extra time to allow Man Utd the best possible chance to score. Has this happened before I ask?
The average extra time added is around three minutes. So seven minutes is right at the far end of the bell curve, given that it represents 15% extra time in the half. But what is even more amazing is that the officials clearly, clearly, signalled FOUR minutes of added time. City manager Hughes was complaining on the touch line as to why the match was continuing well past the allocated time, he knew what was coming. The plain truth is that the match should have ended at least 90 seconds before Owen slotted in the winner. Hughes will quite rightly feel very aggrieved that yet again a match at Old Trafford finally ends when Manchester United eventually put the ball in the net.
No sour grapes from me, just an observation. When the match has drifted well into extra time I laid the draw with the profit I had made on scalping it after the sixth goal, but I would certainly wish this scenario wouldn’t play out time and time again at Old Trafford. I would happily dismiss claims of bias as an optical illusion but when you see something like that, it just doesn’t feel right, does it!
Early bird doesn’t catch the worm!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 19th, 2009
Hmmm, bit hacked off this morning. Up very early to look at the Aussie group racing. Did a nice trade at Caulfield only to see my profit wiped out in a manner I hadn’t seen in the UK.
As the race started two horses reared and one chucked it’s jockey in the stalls. In the UK that would have just been tough luck, but the stewards in Aus called one or both non runners, not quite sure what they have done at the moment. This obliterated my trade and I went from a nice profit to nothing. So all this rhetoric about the early bird, well no juicy worms about this morning! In fact I feel like at cat just snuck out and bit my head off! Such is life.
Off to play Tennis at 07:45 so hope I have a good game and return to UK racing in a better mood.
Writers block
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 17th, 2009
A case of writers block is on the cards. I recently agreed to start writing for another magazine, the first article will be published next month.
While writing to national press standards is demanding, I do quite enjoy it as it makes me feel I have left some legacy from all my participation and research on the markets, this is why I talk about my work also. It would be a huge waste to never document or talk about a thing I have learned, so it’s nice to put that into words and know that people will gain from it now and in the future. It also focuses your mind, you can’t just make things up when you write professionally.
Anyhow, I hope the articles reach a new audience and bring some new people into the market and give them a bit of a leg up. Something I could have done with when I started all many years ago.
Minimax theorem
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 16th, 2009
I bumped into this when I was studying game theory a long time ago. I recently revisited this again and it prompted me to put a post up on my blog for people who had not looked at the benefits of optimal play in a game, especially in a zero sum game. Very often people follow completely the wrong path for psychological reasons and minimax can help you make roughly the right decisions. For a primer, have a look at the following wiki page: -
US Open Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 15th, 2009
Last night rounded off a great US Open for traders. With an unseeded player winning the womens, defeating the two Williams on the way and Federer losing the mens final, it’s been a great tournament. Federer was around 1.30′s to win last night but that looked under pressure when a call was overturned by Hawkeye and the match seemed to turn from that point. I think that the last grand slam has probably been the best trading fodder all year, in what has been a good year.
There is a good summary on the BBC website: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/jonathanoverend/2009/09/so_what_will_be_your.html
Nice screenshot
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 14th, 2009
Somebody emailed me another nice images of a Bet Angel screen posted on a blog. View the image by clicking on this text, it’s too wide to put on the blog.
You can see three advanced charts on the left, you can user define the size, shape and data displayed on the advanced charting. Next you see the three ladders with full market depth. Then you have the market overview charting scaled to show the front of the field and finally on the far right you have Guardian showing all markets the user is looking at.
It’s always interesting to see how users are putting to use the variety of functions on Bet Angel. I think it can also give ideas for your own trading setup. It looks like this blogger has been trying all manner of setups as they start their journey into the trading world.
Bizarre finish in US open
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 13th, 2009
Serving to save the match at 15-40 Serena williams explodes and hands the match to Clijsters. Never seen that before. Unfortunately, I was at a wedding reception and missed last nights matches but caught up this morning. Remarkable come back so far by Clijsters! I’m pleased to see Wozniaki in the final as I earmarked her a little while ago as one to watch. Still recovering from a late night so I haven’t really looked in any depth at anything today, will just chill instead.
Record run ends..
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 12th, 2009
Well it had to stop sooner or later and it turned out to be sooner! I had tr0uble getting anything decent out of Chester all day and it was that race meeting that stopped my run at 82 in row, with a frustrating loss early on in the day. I ended up just failing to break even on the race, losing less than £1 but it was enough to stop the winning run. I could have laid something in-running to avoid the loss but it’s just not in my rule book to chase a loss, no matter how small, so I just had to accept that it was the end of the run.
It turned out to be my only loss of the day and had I avoided it, I would have topped 100 by the close of the day. As it is, I now have to go on another monster run to stand a chance of getting anywhere near my new record. It was a good day over all and a good week. Much better than I had anticipated given my problems in previous years with this meeting.
It’s nice to get such a good start to the month as this month is short on really big meetings. If you want to know where the key fixtures are, the BHB have a decent list at their web site, have a nose so you can plan ahead a bit.
Any how, I am going to have a really relaxing Sunday after a busy week so I hope your week has gone well and I look forward to chatting early next week.
New record
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 12th, 2009
As I have previously stated, my strike has gone up quite a bit recently. One practical upshot of this is that I just set a new record for consecutive winning trades!
When I sit down to trade the first race of the day today I will have successfully traded the previous 70 races without a single loss. My previous best was set back in October 2007 at 66. I hope that I can push the forward again today but it will be a challenge. I need to be careful not to let that run stop me from taking some risk, as you need to take risk to get reward. The tendency when you are on a run like this is to protect it and I really shouldn’t try to do that or else I will miss opportunities.
To get a record also requires a bit of luck, you still need things to swing your way now and again. On at least a couple of occasions yesterday I was deep underwater on some races, but managed to pull things around to end up profitable again. On another day that may have been very different, I obviously just got out of bed on the right side yesterday.
I’m pleased as punch to get this great run as it justifies the effort I put in during the middle of the year to get myself to the next stage. My new screen layout incorporating the overview screen is helping a lot, so if you haven’t used this feature before please check it out as it came out of the work we did to help identify market trends.
US Open tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 11th, 2009
I tend to perform better in the early parts of tournaments as I benefit exponentially from shocks. Also, as the tournament progresses, its easier to make mistakes in close matches. One thing that has caught my eye is the rain delayed match from last night. I think the Gonzalez / Nadal match has the possibility of throwing up some interesting characteristics when they return.
I have always been a fan of taking a position during enforced breaks or initiating one at least. It’s so important to stay in the zone when you are playing at such a high level of sport that an enforced break can often throw up opportunities. One to keep your eye on.
Semenya tests as ‘inter gender’
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 11th, 2009
Breaking news this morning that tests on Semenya confirm that she has some inter gender / hermaphroditic condition. Looks like this story, like Semenya, is going to run and run. It’s a terrible situation to be in really isn’t it, for the individual involved and for sport. Anyhow, full story here: -
St. Leger so far
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 11th, 2009
Things seem to be going OK this week, better than I expected. The Doncaster markets are a bit jumpy but by and large I am pulling in some steady but unspectacular results. My strike rate continues to improve and in the last 106 races I have lost in only 7.
Yesterday was fair, but acceptable and we still have the two biggest days coming up today and tomorrow, so that should help get to a good week. That said the card at Doncaster doesn’t look particulary strong and on top of that racing experts are saying that the St. Leger isn’t a strong race this year.
The issue I have today is that we start the card with a Group 2 race all out on it’s own at 13:35, not a helpful start to the day. I always find the first race of the day a struggle and usually my objective is to just get a small profit to get the day off on the right foot. Today I will have to push a bit harder on the first race which will make me feel uncomfortable.
We also have to look forward to the three runner at 16:25!! I will trade this as no matter what the market, there is always a strategy to put to use on it. The favourite Al Zir will be going off at 1.42. If you been on my course you should know what to do, especially as it should attract a lot of volume.
St. Leger meeting
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 10th, 2009
I must admit, from a trading perspective, I haven’t got a great deal out of this meeting in the past. I’m sort of hoping that this year will be different but I’m not setting high expectations to only be disappointed. This month has started well and my strike rate is still climbing so I’d like to hold onto that and see if I can get a good result.
My only advice, given the prior years, is to take things a little more gently. If it starts to work you can always accelerate into the market. I’ve set sail with a gentle Wednesday and hope to build from there.
Not playing tonight
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 9th, 2009
No activity from me this evening as it’s my fourteenth wedding anniversary and we are out for a posh meal and some pampering. Traditional musings say this is an Ivory anniversary, but modern says Gold so it looks like a Spandau Ballet single is in order, LOL!
Just a quick post on the England vs Croatia game.
I reckon the odds should be 1.61 England, 7.20 Croatia and 4.1 the Draw.
Current market prices are similar but too short on the draw. I guess this is because it isn’t a must win game for England. I think the best value this evening was the price of Sweden to beat Malta. If you could have got any money on Czech Republic to beat San Marino, well done. I put an order in a long time ago and still didn’t get matched!
Iffy start…. again!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 9th, 2009
Being a non horse racing type its always something interesting when I can identify a horse by name. I can’t understand how many chances this horse is going to get. It refused to race again today.
Murray mullered
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 8th, 2009
Andy Murray was completely outclassed this evening in New York. Cilic dominated the match to win in three straight sets and fairly easily. Despite only have a first serve percentage of around 30% in the second set, Cilic still dominated a poor Murray to cruise to victory. The warning signs were there from the off and the second set confirmed Murray’s error strewn display.
Even after taking the first set you could still Lay murray at 1.30′s and he never really got into the game. Pre off £2m was traded on Murray at 1.08 & 1.09. A boon for low layers and as I mentioned the other day even if the favourite goes on to win its quite possible to trade out at break even or a profit. If the favourite doesn’t, the upside is huge. Federer is now odds on to win the title again and Del Potro is looking now looking quite interesting.
There is some value in that
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 6th, 2009
I’ve often used this phrase and others often use this phrase, mainly incorrectly, so I felt I should qualify what it means!
Simply backing or laying something ‘Because it is value’ just isn’t good enough. If we see something priced at 1.50 and we think is should be priced at 1.20 there is clearly defined value, 30% in fact. We could feel pretty confident about putting some decently money on that. While it may not win this time, doing it one hundred times would produce a decent return for us. But therein lies the problem, it’s not very common to see 30% edge in the market.
I can price a number of markets very very accurately. But the edge I find is often quite narrow, maybe a few percent. Therefore, to return money over time, I must base my stake on the chance of winning and the theoretical margin of my edge. To place a bet any other way is just lunacy as the prospect of ruin lurks just around the corner of a bad run. In short , it’s possible to be right but still lose money because your staking method is shot to bits.
Most people use the Kelly Criterion or something similar to work out what they should stake. You can read more on it at this link: -