Archive for November, 2009
Curious
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 28th, 2009
There seems to be an increasing trend for very low matched bet volume on Betfair on a Saturday.
Some of the early races today had much less money matched on them than their significantly inferior midweek counterparts, it’s a curious but persistent trend. In general, I would guess there is less money being matched on horse racing than in previous years, but I’ll have to do some more work on this before I can confirm one way or the other. One thing seems certain and that is that there doesn’t seem to be that much core growth going on in the horse racing markets.
It would be nice to see some more money spent to encourage growth here. At least money spent here funds an industry and real people and things. I think its a negative trend to see gambling based businesses focusing on ‘games’ where there is little substance behind the product and where the punter definitely can not find any edge or doesn’t get much entertainment for their losses. I can see why companies do this as they are easy to run and high, stable margin but other than being a margin generating source for those companies it contributes little else.
One thing I have learnt over time is how pervasive the racing industry is, it’s got a lot of depth. It would be a shame to see it’s funding source get completely detached from reality but racing itself also needs to do more to get participation at a grass roots level.
Betfair back, but not SP
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 26th, 2009
Betfair returned to normal about 1/2 hour after it went offline. Apparently their host lost connectivity which was the cause of the downtime and not any underlying technical issues.
For me, I’m annoyed, as I had an SP bet waiting to be matched before the official off time. Betfair are supposed to manually reconcile these bets when there are problems like this. On this occasion however, it was just cancelled. My log in Bet Angel shows clearly that the bet was submitted before the official off time and that was well before the race actually got underway. It’s only a small amount but it’s the principal that’s the thing. It would be nice to see Betfair reverse this error as a gesture of goodwill.
Betfair down
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 26th, 2009
Just after the off at the 14:30 at Uttoxeter Betfair look like they have had a serious crash. We haven’t had any news from Betfair at the moment as to what has happened, but the whole site including the API has gone.
If you still want to trade you can use Betdaq if you wish. You can download our sister product Betdaq Angel from the URL, http://www.betdaqangel.com. This is pretty much the same as Bet Angel but works on the Betdaq betting exchange.
Just remarkable
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 25th, 2009
Just watched a horse throw its jockey, break through the barriers from the all weather to the National Hunt course, run the entire length of that course, smash through the barriers on it’s return, continue bolting to the start and guess what? It STILL started a 5f race! If finished 5th out of 7 runners.
I can’t believe they still let this horse run. It’s remarkable that they didn’t really care that much for the horses welfare. I know the vet checked it over and all that and that it’s down to connections whether it runs. But when a horse has done that it’s just not fair on the horse or the punters to let it run. Especially in a 5f race.
It threw up a great trading opportunity but I’d rather it be withdrawn and not bag a bit of profit from it staying in the race. Just astonished it was not withdrawn.
1234 & 9-1
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 23rd, 2009
Amazing result from Spurs on Sunday. Not often you get to see 10 goals in a match, especially nine of the them in the second half. That said, Spurs did get a 6-4 against Reading on 29/12/2007. In the same season we also had Portsmouth vs Reading on the 29/9/07, which produced a 7-4 scoreline. I have actually watched a 10 goal match. It was Southampton vs Coventry, which Southampton won 8-2. Some time ago though, that was back in 1984.
1234, where does that come into it? Well according to my model, that was the theoretical odds that there would be ten goals in this match. Checking my database that turns out to not be far from what what we have seen in recent years.
Personally, I think it would be fun to have odds above 1000 on the exchanges and also more correct scores to choose from, at least something starting with 4′s would be good. Somehow I don’t think we will be seeing any 9-1 markets any time soon though.
So close for Kauto
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 21st, 2009
Well, what a race that was. I really though Kauto Star had lost it, but it was always going to be a bob of the head that got it ultimately. The market got the photo finish wrong for once, but I must admit I also thought Kauto Star had lost it.
Benefit of form and horse related knowledge made this a good trade opportunity today. This morning I phoned around a couple of horse racing types and talked to them about the race. One thing came across and that was that Kauto liked soft ground and it seemed to be a race well set up for the horse. You can see the market thought so also.
I managed to equal my total on the race from last year, on what turned out to be a good day. But I should have done better to be honest. With plenty in the bank I kept trying to catch a bounce out, but it never happened. I wasted a lot of money doing that. Sometimes it works very well and it was worth a go. Made more on other races, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles sometimes.
In reaction to this race I laid Kauto Star for the King George VI. Will hold the position for a little while, but it looks like I have made a mistake there as well. I don’t trade Ante Post much unless I have a good reason to do so, so I am not well practiced but it seemed an opportunity. Denman runs next week so I guess that will define how the Gold Cup ante post looks between these two.
Liverpool vs Man City
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 21st, 2009
I’ve had quite a few emails on this match so here are my prices.
Liverpool – 2.02
Man City – 4.30
Draw – 3.60
As you can see the market has it pretty much spot on, maybe very minor value on Man City. I know my prices are within 0.10 accuracy over the course of the season so I can’t see any value. Both teams probably won’t want to lose this one so perhaps a tentative match is likely?
A curious thing about this market is that all the markets suggest an above average number of goals, which is counter to the prevailing psychology of the match. The price on 0-0 correct score will probably decay rapidly if there are no goals.
Massive match fixing probe launched
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 20th, 2009
German prosecutors have launched a probe into around 200 football matches. They suspect a number of matches, including champions league and Europa league matches, have been targeted by criminals who bribe players and officials to fix games. The criminals made money by betting on the results. Matches under investigation were played in Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Croatia, Slovenia, Turkey, Hungary, Bosnia-Hercegovina and Austria.
Get me out of here!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 17th, 2009
With the UK racing markets bumping along the bottom at the moment I rejoined one of the few specials markets that I will trade, “I’m a celebrity, get me out of here”.
Those who have been on my course will know why I joined this market and it didn’t disappoint again this year, though the volume was a bit low. With a full green on the market I messed around last night during the coverage and was surprised at home much the market reacted to the activity on screen. When Camilla got upset her price shot out.
No where near as much money matched as a normal market, but it makes for an interesting distraction if you have nothing better to do.
How to turn over a 1.60 shot
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 16th, 2009
I knew Southampton would lose yesterday, or at least not win. How? Well there were two key overriding factors in yesterdays match.
First, I had bothered to make the trek to the south coast to watch the match. Because of the unsocial hours of the sports markets I don’t get the chance to watch much sport so when there is a team nearby that plays when I can watch, I’ll often nip along. Unfortunately for Southampton every time I watch them, they lose! My mere presence appears to send them to defeat. As it was a case of the form team playing the team short on form on this occasion. I expected this mere fact to overturn my Southampton hoodoo. They lost 3-1.
For the more logical answer of their 3-1 loss yesterday we should look at what happened between when I decided to go to the match and the events that led up to the match itself. Brighton have been on a slippery slope this season and endured some heavy defeats as they slid inexorably towards the bottom of league one. As a result their manager, Russell Slade, was sacked on the 1st November.
Things looked pretty hopefully for Southampton, this was probably the match they needed to finally lift themselves out of the bottom four of the league. That was until Gus Poyet arrived at Brighton to take over the vacant managers position. I’ve documented it before but it’s amazing how often teams that have just had a manager appointed suddenly outperform. For that reason, I felt that at a price of 1.60 Southampton didn’t represent good value. In fact they even contracted in price near the off to 1.52 according to my data.
Unfortunately because of my history with Southampton, I didn’t have a bet, such is life. I was more concerned with trying to squeak some money out of the last day of the Cheltenham open. What I can predict is though is that, because of this ‘exceptional’ loss, most rating systems will incorrectly mark down Southampton and probably incorrectly price their next match. It will take another match to work out Southampton’s true form but I’ll be looking for some value when they next play. Let’s hope its not another team that has just changed manager!
Surprise exit for Murray?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 12th, 2009
I was suprised to see people claim that Andy Murray’s exit from the Paris masters was a surprise. Despite such a late night last night, Murray was in action again today and looking very tired. I thought his price was pretty short but it got very short indeed when he won the first set. From there Murray really ran out of steam and I thought it was odd that the market hadn’t priced this in. Just goes to show that stats can only every tell you one side of the story.
Will I make a profit this week?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 12th, 2009
Yes and no I guess?
Yes I will make a profit, but technically I will right up against the wall, why?
Last week with the Melbourne Cup, Breeders Cup, the UK racing and the champions league it was a busy week. This week there isn’t a great deal on the card. On Wednesday the premium charge came out for last week and it was a big one. This week I may struggle to get in a day what I managed in just one race last week. Net result, I will probably spend most, if not all, this week working for Betfair. Boo hoo.
Real Copa Crash
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 11th, 2009
Real Madrid crashed out of the Copa Del Rey last night. As though that wasn’t bad enough for Real Fans it was to lowly AD Alcorcon. Priced at 1.39 to win the first leg away Real Madrid promptly got thrashed 4-0. But that was OK because they had 90 minutes of the second leg to turn it around. Last night they stumbled to a late 1-0 win and stumbled out of the cup.
Real Madrid play Zurich at home in the next round of the champions league.
Football value this evening
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 10th, 2009
A quick glance on this evenings football has through up Leeds as a clear value candidate. Rather than duplicate the information here, please have a quick read of the posting on the forum. The thing that stands out on this match is that it is a clear value candidate. Very often things are a lot more marginal, but here there is clear room.
Bear in mind that value only appears over time, so you need to stake with that in mind and consistantly over a number of matches. Read my previous post about this.
At the adverts..
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 10th, 2009
Hmm, a distinctly poor week ahead by the look of it and today we are ‘treated’ to a day on ‘At the adverts’, err.. ‘At the races’ I mean. At least we can use the red button to watch the build up a bit better, but we are never over the moon when faced with a winter card all on this channel.
On a close look the card doesn’t look terrible but with small fields and long races I doubt it is going to be easy. This is where you earn your money for sure. The thing we have noticed lately is that there isn’t enough ‘real’ money in the markets. You can put an order in to fill and it simply doesn’t. If anything, everybody runs away from it! I’ve dropped stakes in response but the markets are so weak at this time of the year that even that doesn’t seem to be having any great effect. It will be probably less noticeable for people using smaller stakes but for those using bigger stakes, it’s a right pain!
It’s not all bad, with extra time on my hands in the winter, today I completed some work that has been two years in the making. More about that another time.
No fireworks
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 8th, 2009
Don’t get me wrong, there were plenty of fireworks around yesterday. We are very lucky to live just across from a field where a big annual display takes place, very useful. But at the Breeders Cup last night it felt like I’d only been given a couple of sparklers in the back garden.
For some reason while this meeting is a decent betting heat it never really seems to catch fire from a trading perspective. I did just fine last night, but for such a big meeting it just never seems to really take off spectaculary and I would expect more from it.
We collected some data from the meeting so will have a good look to understand why, C’est la vie. Despite not getting a great deal of pleasure of out last night the end result is that it will drive me forward again. I love exploring the markets and trying to learn why things happen and how. If I’m honest, that’s what I enjoy the most; the exploration of new territory. I am sure if I was born in the 15th centry I’d be on some wooden ship discovering the new world. As it is, while I still travel a lot, I’ll have to settle for something more mundane.
Breeders cup
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 6th, 2009
There are not many races I tend to do in the US, but the Breeders Cup is one of them. I’ve often looked at key races in the US but there just doesn’t seem to be enough interest in them. Even the Kentucky Derby barely registers on the trading Richter scale from a volume perspective.
However, the Breeders Cup is different and is worth a look. One of the problems you will have is that the key races tend to take place near midnight, so it’s definately one for the night Owls. Fridays have never done much for me on the Breeders Cup and last year neither day produce a decent result, despite doing well in prior years. I think that is the problem with infrequent events, you just never now quite how they will behave until you arrive at them. Based on last years efforts, I don’t have any immediate recommendations for this year.
This year, all I am hoping to do is better than last years effort. The only special thing I remember from last year is that it was snowing in the UK.
Horse genome unlocked
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 6th, 2009
Link to the full article below. So this begs the question, could we be on the verge of extra nighttime racing when scientists produce horses that glow in the dark?
Some interesting charts
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 5th, 2009
In these very dull UK markets excitement is hard to come by, but here are some interesting charts for you.
First a weird one from Fairyhouse yesterday. It’s fairly obvious that the Irish racing is quite likely to be more volatile than the UK racing, this race in particular was always going to see the odds move around a fair bit. But I didn’t expect to see what happened here.
This next chart was certainly more readable. Tons of money appeared when Northern Bolt hit it’s low price and forced the price to drift. When the drift hit it’s high price, nobody wanted to lay anymore and it came right back in again. Where Fairyhouse was a rollercoaster ride, Catterick was a gentle punt down the river, stopping off for a pint along the way. Two interesting graphs anyhow.
October
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 4th, 2009
Well October turned out to be a bit of a surprise for me. I had expected it to be a downer, but in fact I ended up with a record month including a record day. Never have I been so pleased to be wrong!
That’s only half the story really. The UK racing markets have, as expected, have started to go into their annual hibernation and opportunities are harder to come by. But I worked hard during the summer on new ideas and markets and that hard work has paid off. With less activity on the main UK racing card I’ve switched more attention to elsewhere this year and that produced big dividends this month. Even accounting for that I didn’t have quite the dip I expected, but I am expecting a much slower November. If prior years are anything to go by I could see myself only achieve half of October. Time for a break, more research and some more prodding of the markets.
I think October just goes to show that the harder you work, the luckier you get.
Shocking winner in Melbourne cup
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 3rd, 2009
Well that went well! I hadn’t expected anything given my failure in previous years to get a decent sum from this race. So it was a pleasant surprise to do well on this race, just a shame you only see this sort of liquidity on one Australian race a year. Even then, just about everything went right this morning. So I definitely feel lucky to have got such a flattering result.
Congratulations to those that joined me in the early hours and also profited on the race. I think it was a success for the betting community as well. £2.7m was matched on Betfair, well above the previous year, but that is nothing compared to the $76m that was put into the Australian pools in Victoria when I last checked. Nationwide, I am informed, this total would have been nearer $200m!
No fairytale win for “Alcopop” but congrats to ‘Shocking’ who edged out the field. Looks like I will be back next year.
All night support for the Melbourne cup
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 2nd, 2009
It’s the race that stops the nation tonight in Australia and already, 8 hours before the race is underway, £750k has been matched on the market. I’ve already put through a few trades and hope more will follow before the start of the race at 4am.
To ensure Bet Angel users can have a trouble free night we will be have a support team in place to help assist through the night. Please remember that you must have money in your ‘Australian wallet’ and you must tick ‘Use Australian wallet’ when you log into Bet Angel if you want to trade any Aussie races.
We hope you have a good day / evening / morning, best of luck!