Archive for July, 2010
Goodwood / New football season
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 30th, 2010
This is turning out to be a good week so far. I think the research I did last year and this has given me some confidence to know exactly what I should be doing and when, also when to not bother! I don’t think it’s been easy, but that gives me even more confidence given the fact I am making it work well.
Today is going to be very busy so I hope that I can end the week with a good performance. There are still many hurdles to be jumped, excuse the pun, before I can conclude it as a good Goodwood but I am certainly heading in the right direction.
I’ve started to turn my attention to the new football season. I don’t engage in pre-season friendlies and don’t let them shape my opinion, but I do carefully examine the transfer market. That is where the clues to the new season will lie. You can use any ratings system on the planet and whatever math you like. But it has always been the transfer market that holds most clues to the shape of next season.
Goodwood day two
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 29th, 2010
First race of the day struggled to stay in profit, small profit second race and a loss in the third. My winning run broken. But with the shackles off I threw caution to the wind and actually had a pretty reasonable day. It’s been pretty mixed though, but I am doing a better job than last year. I hope to keep that up for the next three days to complete a strong month.
The confusing thing is that I am unable to accurately predict which races I am going to do OK on. I am usually pretty good at this and can glance at a card and pick out some key opportunities. I can’t seem to do that this week, I’m stuck and having to be pretty re-active. It’s all working out though.
There are some interesting shenanigans going on in the 15:25 already, which I will keep an eye on. Good luck today what ever you are doing.
Positive start
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 28th, 2010
I didn’t expect Goodwood to be that easy and it wasn’t. But thanks to my preparation I did get off to a good start on the week. In fact I managed a clean sweep on all the races yesterday. Which meant, after carrying over races from Monday, I am entering today on 43 winning races in a row! While a run like that sounds great, it’s not. It just adds pressure to perform on the next race and you end up being cautious. Sometimes caution is not the right strategy. If you look closer at yesterday, I did manage a 30p and 34p race, not exactly impressive but a positive none the less. You need a bit of luck to put a run together and both those races involved a huge slice to get them positive before the off.
This morning I am sifting through all the data I collected yesterday to see what I can learn from it. If you are active in the market and put a lot of orders through, its often worth spend an hour or so doing this. It can tell you a lot about how the market is acting. I run a spreadsheet which acts as my gatherer of ‘control’ data and I match the two and analyse my performance against what is happening in the market in general. It can give you some great insights. Incidentally my control spreadsheet, which trades at random, put through just over £2k yesterday, it lost on £8. Hidden in that stat is a very clear message for all market participants.
I don’t have particularly high expectations for today, but that’s usually a sensible approach. It makes any expectations much easier to beat! I’m actually feel a bit poorly today, so I may not be on my best form. I think I may be burning out a bit after a really busy summer, so I definitely think an enforced break may be on the cards! I’ve been keen to chase down some really long term targets this year but I think I have been pushing myself a little hard.
I hope you had a positive start and with at least a couple of additional cards on this afternoon hopefully you can find something in the markets.
Glorious Goodwood?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 27th, 2010
Goodwood starts today and I must say that in previous years I’ve often struggled to make this a glorious week. Goodwood does not seem a lucky course for me. Last year I had to work hard to try and get things right and it took me most of the week to get it and by then it was too late. This year I am better prepared so hope to do better.
We also have the Galway summer festival this week. That should add some interesting elements to the card and that combined with Goodwood should make for an above average situation this week.
Goodwood is one of my favourite courses. If you get the chance to go there, please do so. The surrounding countryside makes for a unique racing experiance. Chichester is a very pleasant town and there are some nice villages on the coast. Bosham is a fun place to go and visit. But don’t park near the shore, the tide rushes in very quickly and gets very high. Many a time I have seen a sumerged car there. Worth a visit!
The car park in Bosham
Off to the House of Lords
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 26th, 2010
I have been invited to the House of Lords today. I have been to Parliament before, when I was lobbying on an act of Parliament at the committee stage. But I have never been into the depths of the upper house before.
Why? It’s a long story, that I may find time to explain at some point, but it’s to do with a charity. I am looking forward to it. I don’t think pictures are allowed in the upper house but if I get any, I will put them up on the blog.
Government to mop up betting cash
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 25th, 2010
Following a pledge by the UK coalition government, MP Don Foster has been asked to compile a report into abandoned betting accounts estimated to amount to millions of pounds which could be used to improve public sports facilities and clubs in the UK. Basically the government are looking at ways to access dormant cash in betting accounts. This is more or less the same initiative that they have embarked on with savings accounts.
For the full story visit this link: -
Just a month left
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 24th, 2010
I don’t want to depress you, but in a months time the summer racing calendar will be shutting down. Most of the major sports events will be out the way and the evenings in the UK will start to pull in.
The days of ample opportunity and get out of jail cards will have been served and your approach will have to shift slightly to adapt to the prevailing winds. It doesn’t mean that opportunity has gone, just changed shape a bit.
A few years ago I recognised that the summer had a very different feel to the autumn and winter and if you are just on racing alone, the winter can descend you into a state of torpor at times. You also, unfairly, bias your results to the summer. So I adapted and increased my activity on other markets and this has the effect of spreading out my results month on month over the year.
While the summer schedule is busy, I often feel that this busier period often leads to under performance. If you look at two days this week. They show different totals but have the same underlying theme, the average per race is quite low. This is simply because I am picking off clear cut opportunities. If I don’t see one, I don’t go for it. In the winter you don’t have that choice so you tend to work harder and often pull in better results.
The moral of this story is that a decline in opportunities isn’t such a bad thing as it could be made out to be. Also, there are so many markets out there, widen your remit to get a better all round performance. Till then, make hay while the sun shines.
Getting stung
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 23rd, 2010
I got stung twice on Tuesday. Both incidents were pretty rare but taught me a lesson.
Sting one, we have a wasps nest in the Garden. Despite many attempts to get rid of it, they still persist. We called in the specialists in but that was only a temporary respite. So I took matters into my own hands and had a good poke around in the composter to locate it. Unfortunately the wasps were wise to me and one poke with a stick sent a flood out of them to defend their territory. I got stung a couple of times and one was right on the joint of my wrist and very painful. This made moving the mouse was a bit tricky for a couple of days. Anyhow, the specialist returned yesterday and destroyed the nest!
Sting two. If I get something wrong in a market, I don’t panic I just adopt a plan B, then C & D if that doesn’t work. Starting with low stakes I tend to try something and then if that doesn’t work I will cut out and try something else. Now and again though it can backfire, especially if you are unlucky. I got unlucky this week and managed to put in my worst daily performance for about 13 months. I’ve been quite happy this month but the market well and truly tripped me up on this day. Just a set of events that don’t occur very often did and that was it, nothing I could do. I did the best to repair the damage but I didn’t chase it. The upside return on trading is quite small when measure in percentage terms. I’ve often seen people go into ‘recovery’ mode when something happens, especially out of the blue. But if the ‘recovery’ fails then the road back is very long and hard. You are just better off accepting a loss, whether it was a fluke or not. You will live to fight another day, chasing a loss could wipe you out forever!
My lesson, a bit of stupidity is going to cost me one way or another, that’s inevitable. But it often serves as a useful reminder not be stupid! More importantly, its how you deal with the aftermath that’s key. Both my painful stings are behind me and I am confidently moving forward again.
Getting stung can be a useful reminder
Another big price winner
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 19th, 2010
I am really starting to like Golf as a trading medium.
I tend to carefully model sports before getting deeply involved with them. Doing that allows me to test the up and downside limits to a strategy and that in turn allows me to know what I need to do to be successful. I tend to hunt for the downside to any strategy as that allows me to frame it at which point it clearly defines the upside for me. This is why I often suggest that people trade at random. If your random losses are X and your strike rate Y then you immediately know what you need to do to profit. If you can’t get near that metric, you either need to start again or think of a new way into the market.
Golf is tricky to model. Players heading off at different times, playing on different difficulties of holes. But for anybody that has played golf, one characteristic stands out. One good shot can make a good round and one bad shot can ruin in. These characteristics can send players rocketing up or down the leader-board.
The practical upshot of this is that big outsiders can shorten quickly and short prices can lengthen quickly. This seems to throw up some really big priced winners. Last year in the Open Championship we had Cink, an 800 shot, battling Watson, a 1000 shot, in a play off. This year the unknown Oosthuizen romped home at 490!
If I would have let my bet on Oosthuizen stand I would have made a small fortune, but I just find it impossible not to approach every market without carefully planning out my approach. As a consequence there were others I backed and I also laid off some of the substantial potential on Oosthuizen. Being a relative rookie I did expect him to crumble a bit under the pressure, but Oosthuizen did a great job of playing percentage golf over the weekend and with such a gap to the other contenders it was the right thing to do. The others couldn’t have any impact without taking risk and than ultimately led to mistakes.
Overall, a good tournament. Just itching for the next one now!
Wel gedaan!
Time to sit back and enjoy
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 17th, 2010
With the hard work out of the way on the Golf, it’s now time to sit back and enjoy the weekend play. With plenty of profit in the bank I can take some speculative positions without too much worry and don’t have to watch the market like a hawk. I hope the weekend produces a thrilling climax to the tournament.
Open golf day two
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 16th, 2010
Here is the list of my best backs from the open. Oosthuzien is the best having crashed in from 490 to just 14′s this morning. This means for my ‘massive’ £4.25 stake I can green up for near on £150 on just Oosthuizen. Daly touched teens early on as well. Three of these bets are on the top ten ‘odds leaderboard’ so its been a cracking start. Would have been even better if some of the shorter prices had blown up, but there are still quite a few that have slipped out of contention. Roll on the cut!
The Open golf championship
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on July 15th, 2010
If you want a clue as to how to trade this event, just have a look at the weather forecast for a massive clue. Changed course, competitive tournament, poor weather ahead of the cut.
I notice that after nearly winning it last year Tom Watson is priced at 300′s for something similar this year. I don’t think that is realistic, he was 1000 last year. Stewart Cink is 150, he was 800′s last year. Justin Rose is priced to be in contention, but a lot of his golf is on the US tour now, not sure if that form will translate to the Open.
Curiously, Justin Rose used to live near me and his local course was just up the road. Only when he was an amateur breaking into the professional scene though. We did end up playing on the same course once at the same time and other than having dinner with Colin Montgomerie once, that’s about the closest I will ever get to the claret jug.
One thing I do love about golf though is the ability to play on the same course and relive the famous shots from the big tournaments. I think that adds something special to the game of golf. Trying running on Old Trafford with your mates to have a kick around and you will be arrested, with Golf you can tread in the same footsteps as those you admire. It’s a inspiring feeling.
Occam’s razor
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 14th, 2010
In case you are not familiar with this concept here is a link to the Wiki page: -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor
Basically, most things are best explained in simple terms and explanations with much more detailed thought or rationale behind them turn out to be much less effective in explaining or moving forward a concept. I only learnt of Occam’s razor while watching a science documentary one night but it my experience Occam was right. If you can’t explain something works in simple terms then you are probably on the wrong track. It’s something that seems to have been true for the whole of my working life. Distilling something down to a basic decision always works well, over complicating something works badly.
It seems to be the same whatever you look at. So if you are searching for something, think about actually what you are trying to achieve and the fundamentals behind it. From there you are likely to be very near your final answer already.
It’s over
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 12th, 2010
Last night finally saw the World Cup end.
It’s been a great couple of months but I’m exhausted, so I am personally glad to see the end of this busy period. It’s really great having such opportunities, but it’s impossible to work flat out like this for any length of time. Time for some recuperation and hindsight. It has been very rewarding though, with last week bringing in my second biggest week ever.
I’ve also gathered lots of data to look at and come up with some new ideas, so I am really looking forward to digging through this and expanding my repertoire. I thought it was interesting last night that just short of £23m was matched on the World cup final last night and that it rose to ‘only’ £34m by the end of 90 minutes. That’s less than I expected.
No sooner than it fades away than it’s back. The football season is already undewary again as the second round of UEFA champions league qualifying takes place this week. Next weekend we have some decent pre-season friendlies. It’s going to be a busy year!
Going Dutch
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 11th, 2010
This isn’t a pick! I think the Spanish have done a good job so far tactically and may test the Dutch defence in a way it hasn’t been tested so far this World Cup. This is a reference to what I will be aiming to do this afternoon. I have Dutchand German friends just round the corner from where I live, but as the German’s didn’t get to the final I will be going Dutch for the final. As I am unlikely to experience the thrill of watching England play for the greatest price there is in International football, so I may as well do it by proxy with a native supporter. It should be a fun afternoon.
The match is priced at 2.20 goals with a 0.36 goal advantage to the Spanish. I think that’s fair given the progress of both teams so far. I would have expected the market to price closer to 2.00 goals so I wonder if the draw could be value at this level. If you look at the stats home advantage is worth 0.40 of a goal so that effectively means it’s an even match but Spain are playing at home. If you don’t believe that, then Spain would be a value lay.
I won’t be trading the final as I will trying to get into the swing of things before the final.
The world cup effect?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 10th, 2010
We noticed recently that the racing markets have picked up a bit recently. So I thought I would look to see if volume had been affected by Wimbledon and the World Cup. I picked a day when England were playing and looked to see if volumes had dropped.
You can see the gap on the graph, but this was mainly caused by the first race not reaching the same volume as the last race, last year. If you adjust the graph for that fact, there is actually little difference between the two sets of data. Basically volumes didn’t drop because of the World Cup. If felt like that in the markets, so I think I can summarise by saying that while the volume didn’t drop the type of activity did seem to change. It could be a coincidence but it certainly felt different. Now these markets are at or near their end things seem to have reverted back to their old pattern.
An interesting observation.
Newmarket July meeting
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 9th, 2010
I’ve never really put this one in the diary as a meeting that exhibits great characteristics but this year it feels different and is much more positive. Don’t get me wrong its a much better than average meeting, it’s just never stood out in previous years. It’s been a good start to July, so I am hoping the last day of the meeting will bring further rewards. Typically the last day is the best.
Small fields
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 8th, 2010
If I had a small field in as my garden I would be happy. But a small field when trading is not such a happy occurrence. Look at today’s card and there are seven meetings but only 5 races have field sizes in double figures!
Straight off this tells me what sort of day this is going to be, trickier than usual. But its alarming that none of these courses can seemingly cobble together a decent field. No doubt there will be a few races today where the horse gets prize money for just turning up. Not a great state of affairs.
7/7
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 7th, 2010
Was having a shower this morning when my wife reminded me of the significance of the date. It’s amazing how events can quickly slip into the past and we should all be reminded of those events, lest we forget.
I was in town this morning and did a little piece for CNBC. So far I haven’t had enough time with them to show them the wider world of modern betting markets, but I am sure it will come! I hope so, as I dislike tipping without a full explanation, which you can’t do in a few minutes. Still, Rome wasn’t built in a day. Traffic was horrible so I arrived back a bit late to start the afternoon racing which was annoying.
7/7 has more poinciancy for me that others as I got caught up in the melee. You can read about it and my views on this post. I’ve never been able to understand how people can show hatred to others whatever the reason, still can’t.
Germany vs Spain
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 7th, 2010
The market is priced for 2.40 goals or thereabouts with a 1.20 goals to Spain. The Germans have stormed through to the semi final whereas the Spanish appear to have ground out results but both teams slipped up in the group stages.
Some interesting notes I’ve copied from elsewhere: -
- Victory at Euro 2008 was only Spain’s second win in eight competitive games against the Germans.
- Germany are unbeaten in three previous World Cup games against the Spanish.
- Overall, the two nations have met 20 times: Germany have won eight and Spain six, with six draws.
- Germany have reached this stage in six of the last eight World Cups.
- While Italy beat the Germans in 1970 and 2006, it is 52 years since a side other than the Azzurri defeated them at the semi-final stage.
I’ve always been a keen advocate of psychology over stats and I think the Germans definitely have the wind behind them. The Spanish have the weight of expectation on them as they are the first Spainish team to reach the semi finals of the World Cup. By contrast this will be Germany’s 11th world cup semi final and most German’s wouldn’t have expected that this time around.
I’m tempted to plump for a contrary trade by favouring the German’s to win a low scoring contest.
Uruguay vs Netherlands
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 6th, 2010
I think you would have to fancy the Netherlands in this match, which the market is doing by one goal. But it is also pricing in very few goals, just short of 2.30. So the market summarises this as a tight match with the Dutch should win.
I would secretly like a Germany / Netherlands final as it would add some serious spice to the mix, but I suspect Uruguay will feel they have an equal chance. A lot rests on Forlan, with a couple of suspensions this makes the match a stiffer task than they would like. If they do win, it will probably be through tactical nous. At least we know how the last penalty would be taken!
How many times do I have to say 'Don't dive!'
My lucky day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 6th, 2010
Nothing lucky about the result which was fine, but it was more the manner in which it was achieved. Often you can wade into a market and everything goes wrong. Nothing works the way it ‘should’ and bad postions get worse and so do good ones. Yesterday was unusual, in that I forcast a poor day but I didn’t really get any significant negatives yesterday. It just seemed that when I got myself into a hole, it quickly offered me a way out. That was lucky, but it’s continued my good start to July, a morale booster. I now can’t claim bad luck when I have my next stinker, I’ll just net it off against yesterday!
No pleasure
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 3rd, 2010
OK, so I got the Netherlands win right, Murray’s defeat at Wimbledon and Forlan scoring with Uruguay qualifying for the semis. But other than the Netherlands win, the other two were a little bitter. A couple of cruicial points would have seen the Murray match take a different complexion and a long overdue UK mens finalist at Wimbledon. As for Ghana’s defeat, it would have been nice to see a win rather than that last minute ‘cheating’ drama. I am sure he could have got his head on the ball and saved football’s blushes. But there in a nutshell, in all three cases, is modern sport.
Busy at work on some new research next week and looking to spend some time analysing the whole of Wimbledon and the World cup. Should throw up some interesting stuff for sure.
Reaching a climax
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 2nd, 2010
Excuse the double entendre but both Wimbledon and the World cup are now reaching the critical stages.
Both Nadal and Murray know that they have a great chance to win Wimbledon if they get through the semi final. That said, Berdych is on fire at the moment as I write this. I can’t help but think Murray’s price is a little low given his opponent. The market is telling us there is only a 2.7% difference in ability given the odds, that doesn’t seem correct.
Brazil vs Netherlands is price at 2.32 goals with half a goal to Brazil. I don’t have a strong opinion on this one but instinct is telling me to look for an opportunity to lay Brazil. They haven’t come up against much yet and attitudes start to shift in the latter stages of a competition. Everybody knows they are only a couple of games away from glory. Should be an interesting match.
Uruguay vs Ghana is priced even tighter at 2.20 goals with half a goal to Uruguay. Forlan has been prominent in each game so far and seems on form, though I suspect lots of people would like Ghana to win. I think 2.20 goals is too low. Can’t wait for the Germany vs Argentina game!
June
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 1st, 2010
June was fine, nothing amazing but better than last year. Had some difficult patches, some highlights, but it just sort of happened without anything stunning happening in either direction. I just ground out a result each day.
The whole month got a shot in the arm with the World Cup and Wimbledon, both of which were welcome additions to what was often pretty poor racing. I put some renewed focus into these areas this month. The launch of Tennis trader should have helped everybody get a better understanding of Tennis trading and Wimbledon so far has been brilliant trading fooder. On the racing front, Ascot met my lower expectations!
There were a few notables from last month. The biggest is that I celebrated a decade on Betfair in the middle of the month. It’s incredible to think it’s been ten years since I first placed a bet. Betfair also celebrated their tenth birthday last month. I sent several notes of congratulations to various people in Betfair, I didn’t get one acknowledgement back! Reaching ten years has driven some focus into my thinking. But that’s something I’d like to address in a separate post.
Another couple of things, I did manage to get another 1000 winner last month which is pretty rare, but I don’t class that within my main figures as you can’t account for exceptional events like that. I also achieved something last month that I don’t think I will ever likely achieve again. It’s so off the scale I don’t think it’s worth talking about as nobody would really think it was likely. It was appropriate to do it on my tenth anniversary.
July should be interesting. With the World Cup and Wimbledon set to, end the racing may perk up. I got off to a cracker today so I am hoping to pick up speed through the month. However, life is best understood backwards but you have to live it forward. But here’s hoping for a good month.
One of a number of decent results today, a good start to the month