Archive for October, 2010
Westwood done good
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on October 31st, 2010
An Englishman at the top of the world golf rankings, never thought I would say that. With the declining Woods, his 281 week reign at the top of the sport has ended and Westwood has taken over. Is there something about been a good golfer that requires you to be named after some of the equipment? I’m off to get my name changed by deed poll!
I remember his form dipping after the birth of the his first child (trading opportunity in there) but he has come back to be a great golfer since them despite not clinching a major yet. It takes a great deal to be the top of anything you do, so credit where it’s due for Lee getting to the very top, however achieved.
Trick or treat?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 31st, 2010
Last night the clocks went back and today we have racing that starts at midday(ish) and finishes at four. This signals the slide into a quieter period for racing.
There is still plenty of other sport to do and some decent feature races coming up, but some of the other stuff is less appealing. We also have the weather potentially posing a threat. So it’s time to hunker down and reset expectations and styles, to adapt to the winter.
If you are still on the rise you may not notice the shift in the winter, but if you are at the top of your game it’s pretty likely that you will. If you fit neither category then its still likely you will notice a difference. Everybody knows lower performance can be painful but if you are prepared for it then it should be easier to cope with. From best to worst month my activity drops 50% at this time of year on racing. This was a shock when it first happened to me, but now I know, I can accept this will happen. The best way to cope with this is to not chase opportunities that just don’t exist, the reason you can’t see them is that they are probably not there.
In short, as we head through the winter, don’t beat yourself up if you struggle now and again; it’s just part of the seasonal mix. It’s a trick, use it as a treat. Use the time productively to do other things either personal or professional, also research new areas. Both will pay big dividends in the long term.
Arsenal vs West Ham
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 30th, 2010
Compiled some premier league ratings today but didn’t get time to put them up this morning.
Anyhow, top of expected list of goals was Arsenal vs West Ham at nearly 3.5 goals. Given that this match is now at 0-0 at half time, but there has been plenty of goal mouth action. I think there is a lot of value here in terms of backing an Arsenal win or laying a low goal tally. Counter arguments are that is a local derby and West Ham will have a good incentive to nick a point with a backs to the wall approach, but you feel Arsenal should win this. Even moreso given how the first half has gone.
I’m going to give it a go. I may not get it right this time, but with the same set up in the future I think I will get it more right than wrong.
Winner at odds of 1000 at Wetherby
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 29th, 2010
Big shock in the 16:00 at Wetherby where the complete and utter rank outsider, Maoi Chinn Tire, won the race. I didn’t get this one but have bagged some before. £912 matched at 1000 before the off!!!
New communications tool
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 29th, 2010
I’ve created some new videos to highlight some of the new features in the latest version of Bet Angel. I will record some more in the coming week, but you can find a list of the current selection here. I have uploaded them to You Tube as well.
For some time we have allowed a lot of flexibility on how Bet Angel communicates with Betfair. This extends beyond the unique connection mode feature, to other areas of the software. As an active user of my own product, there is obviously a significant incentive to make sure it works to the best of its ability. However, it became clear that quite a few users had never made full use of these features, so when we released the latest version of the software we decided to pull all these features together in one area where you can control all them with ease. You can also save these settings to a custom profile so you can adapt your needs to each market or trading location.
The benefit of this new feature is that it’s now much easier to tweak how Bet Angel communicates with Betfair and maximise the speed at which it does so. We have also added in a new communications mode for people using poorer quality connections.
You can view more information on the following video which you can view in HD mode: -
Derby day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 29th, 2010
Isn’t the Derby in June? Yes and no, if you are in Australia, early tomorrow morning (UK Time) is Derby Day in Victoria. This kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival and a week of top class Australian action. On Tuesday we have the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup.
As I have leant more and more about this carnival of racing, the more I realise it’s significance and I’m actually quite excited about it this year. I don’t know if I have the energy to trade it, but an early rise may be in order given the right market conditions and enough desire to overcome my need to sleep! Good luck if you are getting involved.
How bizarre was that?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 27th, 2010
17:10 at Haydock and Drill Sergeant gets off to a flyer. Gee thanks, I got stuffed by the start. But he is well in the lead as he goes around the first corner. The suddenly he stops and starts to have a casual stroll around the course. Price rockets out from heavy odds to to 120 and confusion reigns as the field catch him up and somehow pass him without an accident. Mc Coy somehow gets the horse moving again to win. What a race and what a ride by McCoy.
£335 matched at 70's
No false start for Betfair float
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 27th, 2010
Betfair shares got off to a good start last Friday on the London stock exchange. I am sure there will be plenty of excitement and speculation around the shares for some time. Betfair is a ‘new’ business, has good competitive aspects and is one that has seen rapid growth. Surely a ‘hot’ stock.
As you may be aware, I have been brought up on a diet of long term investing on the stock market and not speculation. My focus has always been on value and not price. So there is the reason why I’ve been generally been luke warm on Betfiar’s flotation. This is not because Betfair isn’t a great company, but it’s just the price I would have to pay to own part of it.
If you want to rationalise how I see stocks, imagine you are betting on a football team to win a match. You are searching for situatons that are stacked in your favour and where doubt has been minimised, you know there will be goals. The sort of value I am looking for when buying shares, would be the equivalent of the team I was betting on being a goal up already or been able to back them knowing they are definately about to score. Of course that never really happens in the sports market, but these type of situations can occur in the stock market.
If you buy a growth stock it’s like betting that a football team will win by a set number of goals. The high valution of growth stocks represents the future, the trouble is, that hasn’t happened yet! Any hint of a failure to fulfill the expected future can be crushing to a companies valuation. When buying growth stocks you are betting on there being many goals rather than exploiting value.
All that said, I will almost certainly become a Betfair shareholder at some point, why? The lure of being a owner and a customer is tough to resist. While shareholder rights are generally poorly understood, you do have them and this makes it worth holding a few shares at least.
And there're off!
Bet Angel 1.26 released
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 26th, 2010
We are pleased to announce a new beta release of Bet Angel is now available. There are a number of changes in the latest version, some of them significant.
We will post some new videos up in the next few days which will better describe the changes we have made and allow you to confidentally use the new features, but here is a summary: -
Screen Layouts – the size and position of each of Bet Angel’s windows can now be saved under a named layout. Saved layouts are displayed in a picklist in the header area of the Bet Angel trading screen so that you can quickly switch from one layout design to another. Layouts can span multiple monitors.
Settings Editor – The settings tab page has been removed and has been replaced with a new settings editor. The editor has been split into categories and now includes options from the ladder screen, chart settings and sound alerts. The Communications page has been enhanced to allow more control and optimisation of your connection and of individual data feeds. It also includes a new ‘Connection Smoothing’ process which improves the consistency of the data feeds for users on a lower bandwidth connection.
Named settings profiles – All settings can be saved under a named profile (either via the Settings menu or via the Settings editor). These proiles are available from within Bet Angel or via the log in screen when you first start the software.
Improved betfair charts – The betfair charts can now be configured to display either price or implied probability (or both) and can be synchronised with the market currently being traded or the selection being displayed on one of the ladders. The refresh rate is also configurable and all these settings will be saved under the named settings profile. The betfair charts can now be resized and their size and position will be saved with the named screen layout.
Improved advanced charts – The advanced charts now have a toolbar allowing fast switching between styles and runners . They can also be synchronised with the market currently being traded or the selection being displayed on one of the ladders. The chart style used in each chart window will be saved under the named settings profile. The advanced charts size and position will be saved with the named screen layout.
Trade of the season (so far)
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 25th, 2010
I mentioned in another post about the Portsmouth saga and it turns out I was correct in my interpretation. This turned out to be the trade of the season so far. Portsmouth relegation markets have been a nice earner in the last couple of years!! I’ll have to wait till May to get paid out but I can now green out and look for the next opportunity.
Betfair’s LMAX up and running
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 24th, 2010
It looks like Betfiar’s financial markets operation, LMAX, is up and running. I am on their mailing list but haven’t received anything yet. However, if you visit the following site you can read about LMAX and sign up for an account and browse the site.
The first thing I tried to find was charges. It appears Betfair are going to adopt a normal financial market model of charging for a buy and sell, there are some example trades here: -
http://www.lmaxtrader.co.uk/cfd-trading/cfd-trading-examples
I had dreamed that they may not adopt the traditional charging model, but I guess that was a bit optimistic. However an open market platform with small costs probably does open up some opportunities. It’s a very competitive marketplace so it will be interesting to see how this all pans out. They are going to have to work very hard to get customers. Who knows, I may even get an account manager!
Fat fingers crucify punter
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 23rd, 2010
I see lots of strange things in the markets but few stranger than what happened just a moment ago at Newbury. While I realise we all, in some way, take money of each other now and again. I feel a great deal of sympathy for what they did, we all screw up from time to time. I can’t imagine how they felt after this error.
The long and short of it is that they backed a 400/1 shot down to only 1.08, with significant amounts of money. All this occured before the off. Why, is anybodies guess. But you feel it could be a bot error. There is a discussion on the forum, but here is an image I took quickly after this happened.
It’s going to take some getting back I think.
Ouch!
Pompey likely to close down
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 23rd, 2010
Portsmouth say they are likely to fold after talks with former owner and key creditor Sacha Gaydamak broke down. Full story here: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/p/portsmouth/9120108.stm
Odds on Betfair for relegation have plunged from 11′s to heavy odds on. In settlement terms Betfair count going out of business as relegation, hence the change in odds. I suspect this could be a wake up call from the administrator to the only creditor holding up the process. Lets wait and see….
Odds are going down, are Portsmouth as well?
Rooney signs five-year deal with…
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 22nd, 2010
What a saga and seemingly for nothing, Rooney has signed for…… Man Utd. Was this just one big bluff? It will be interesting to understand what exactly happened here.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/m/man_utd/9118602.stm
Is £113m too much?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 22nd, 2010
I see this enormous lottery jackpot has now been claimed.
I do wonder what is the point of gifting somebody so much money, especially in times of such austerity? I find it a little crass. I am sure the money could be put to excellent use in a number of ways, but gifting it to one person?!? I know there has to be an incentive to do the lottery, but I am sure most people would be very happy with much less. It’s difficult to reconcile such enormous wealth at these difficult times.
On the wider issue of gifts, I’m not a believer in inherited wealth. I think it destroys the essence of progress and creates an inverse incentive in an economic system. I think everybody needs an incentive to get out of bed in the morning and make their impact on the world. I don’t think inherited wealth or such large gifted sums can achieve that. You can’t take money to the grave, so I think those that have it should give some of it back or put it to effective use while still alive.
http://theweek.com/article/index/205802/warren-buffetts-billionaire-donors-club-by-the-numbers
Champions league ratings
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 20th, 2010
A successful night last night. The ratings plumped for 46 goals in all matches last night, including the champions league, and the matches delivered 43. For the champions league I was looking for 23 goals and got 25. The matches pretty much turned out as expected, though Basel’s win at Roma wasn’t on the radar. I reckon there will be around 23 goals tonight. Bear in mind there could be more or less but over the long term we will be pretty close.
This evening the matches look much more interesting with lots of nice setups across the board. How will Man Utd play after the Rooney kerfuffle this week, will Rangers shut out Valencia, will Spurs put in a good performance in Italy, will Barca thrash Copenhagen? There is lots to get stuck into this evening.
Most goals to least: -
Barcelona v FC Copenhagen
Man Utd v Bursaspor
Twente v W Bremen
Schalke v Hap Tel Aviv
Inter v Tottenham
Lyon v Benfica
Rangers v Valencia
Panathinaikos v Rubin Kazan
Benoit Mandelbrot
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 18th, 2010
It was sad to hear of the passing of Mandelbrot last week. But that we should be blessed with his insight is a great thing. He also lived into his eighties, which is a good innings.
Mandelbrot is best know for his work on Fractals. The beauty of fractals is that, while not predictive, they can describe very complicated objects from very simple constructs and that, I believe, is the key to life universe and everything. Whether is subatomic particles, a coastline or a tennis match; all have their roots and descriptions in very simple origins. It’s quite amazing how simple systems can produce complex behaviour and it’s something I’ve explored for years. I never feel confident in something until I have broken it down into it’s finite constituent parts. When you look at Tennis Trader, it works by taking a very complicated and complex end result, the odds, then it breaks those down into some fundamental metrics which then allows it to project forward. While not strictly fractal in nature, I owe that thought process to people like Mandelbrot.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beno%C3%AEt_Mandelbrot
If you are looking for a good book to read on this subject, a nice layman’s introduction is this one, it’s always been high on my recommended reading list: -
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Mis-Behaviour-Markets-Fractal-Reward/dp/1846682622/ref=pd_sim_b_1
Merseyside Derby
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 17th, 2010
How tantalising is this match!
I’m not sure if I have seen a better set up for this Derby in all my years of following football. Passions will be high and both teams will be desperate for a win. Neither team can really afford to lose, but recent stats favour the home team. Everton have won 9/13 home fixtures while Liverpool have won just 1/12 away fixtures. Given various circumstances I suspect this will be a draw. This is much more likely given that it is a derby match. It’s pretty even all round on the markets, nobody is risking any decisive pricing.
When you look at the market, it has basically priced in a 1-1 draw, plumping for a match with just over 2 goals on average and a slight advantage to Everton. This makes it difficult to put a firm strategy forward until the match gets underway.
Should be a good match to watch anyhow.
Shocking
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 16th, 2010
Good volume on the Caulfield cup in Melbourne this morning, £1.25m was traded on this high profile race and it produced some nice moves. The favourite, shocking, was defeated on heavy ground by Descarado trained by the colourful Gai Waterhouse. I had no idea she was Scottish!!
Shocking is also in key contention for the Melbourne cup, maybe the ground will be more suitable there. It’s been a good session this morning and ideal practice for the Melbourne Cup.
Odds chart for shocking
The aching transition
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 14th, 2010
It’s that time of year in horse racing where the flat gives way to the jumps.
Some good flat races left, but a lot of lower quality and end of season stuff too. On the other side, the jumps now also have a number of novice races. So you end up with some really thin betting markets around at this time of year and things get tougher. However, it’s not new it’s been the same for years, it just a seasonal shift.
When I first ran into this period quite a few years ago, I thought I had lost it. It can be difficult to cope with, but if you are struggling during this time it’s nothing to worry about; it’s just the normal transition from one market type to another. This is usually the last big month I get before we descend into the winter malaise. So I’m going to do my best to put in a good month and start collecting some firewood to keep me warm over the winter!
Get used to it
Early bird
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 13th, 2010
With the Melbourne cup just around the corner and a breakfast meeting in London this morning, I thought I would take the opportunity to get up a bit earlier and trade the 1000 Guineas at Caulfield racecourse, Melbourne, Australia. I posted the result on the forum. The more I dabble in Australian sports the more I get the urge to visit this antipodean land.
It was good practice for some of the bigger races coming around the corner. I did well and within an hour was showered and on the train in the rush hour to London. Just goes to show that opportunities occur all about you if you are willing to look and work at it. I am tired this afternoon though, so I wouldn’t recommend this all the time; however I did run a spreadsheet all night on the racing so there is a start for something new.
Stunning Scottish goal
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 12th, 2010
Currently preparing for this evenings slew of International matches and reviewed what little action there was last night. This included a stunning goal by the Scottish under 21 team against Iceland. Have a look at this: -
Liverpool could face points deduction
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 9th, 2010
Liverpool need to agree a sale by the 15th October or else they could be put into administration. This is significant if you remember my post last year about a similar situation with premiership club Portsmouth. Full story here: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/l/liverpool/9074311.stm
For sale : One club, many wrangling owners
X Factor alert
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 8th, 2010
OK, I know you are thinking, what’s Peter doing talking about the X Factor! But, for anybody that has been on my course, the news that a new contestant is likely to be added to the market on Saturday should be a signal to get involved in the market.
As with all things, there is a bit of uncertaintly here. But you could get some good upside if the 13th contestant does arrive. For once in my life I will be watching the X Factor over the weekend!
This betting market has the X Factor
Death of a strategy
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 7th, 2010
If you read the ‘birth of a strategy‘ one thing you can see how is long it takes for a new idea to fade, but why?
Well, people were in this market before I was, so my arrival no doubt had an impact on them. It must have or else I couldn’t have made any money. So was their response to sit there and let it happen? No, they would have tweaked their strategy to take account of the new kid on the block. So, eventually, my strategy faded from it’s previous highs.
But to describe it as ‘dead’ is wrong. As my fellow market participants did when I arrived, I have simply tweaked a few parameters and am now continuing on a slightly different path but upwards again. It’s beautiful market efficiency in action! For me to continue I need to find a better way. When I find that better way, existing participants will have to respond to find a better way. If they do, it will be my turn and so on. It’s the same in any market and always will be. It’s one big game of cat and mouse!
I have seen quite a few people come and go in time on Betfair. Finding a strategy that has a pay off is one thing, maintaining it completely another. The things I teach people on my course today, are very different from even a couple of years ago. While the market can exhibit similar traits, the participants don’t and that is just part and parcel of the market. You have to adapt to continue to hold your position in response to other moves, you run to stand still. Some strategies that worked really well a few years ago just don’t work anymore or in different manners. Likewise, strategies that didn’t exist a while ago have come into full view now the markets have matured.
One constant that has always been there though is profit. When I first started doing this I wasn’t sure if I was kidding myself. But I slowly learnt that potential profit exists in every market, every day. Finding it at the lowest risk is where the skill and psychology comes into play. I’ve mentioned on other posts that sometimes just sitting and waiting for a clear opportunity is often the best tactic. If you can see on opportunity, one probably doesn’t exist.
I am always restless to understand more, so I am sure that I will witness many more births and deaths. The quest continues!
A game of cat and mouse
September
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 6th, 2010
September was pretty much spot on where I thought it would be, which is encouraging. I got off to an indifferent start but picked up speed as I went along and finished on a high. Nothing amazing stood out in September and I completed a quiet transition away from the evening racing. The only notable thing was that my strike rate slipped year on year for the first time in a while. I have tweaked a few things recently, so that is not entirely unexpected. I recommend that you always take time to experiment and look for new ideas. If you don’t you could lose your edge or miss a new opportunity.
So far the year has been much more positive than I imagined so I am set up well for Q4 now. If I can safely navigate through this month, then I will approaching last years total. This has surprised me, the market is more competitive than ever and full of new advice givers on a daily basis. I guess there is a message in there somewhere!
The passing of September sees us slip into a quieter period on the UK horse racing scene so my expectations are lowered as a result. I’m am enjoying getting down the Gym more often and catching up with friends and other traders now there is less time pressure. If you have been doing this for any length of time, you pretty much live from month to month as far as results are concerned. You can never be guaranteed that what worked last month will work again this month. Having got through the bulk of another year is very satisfactory. As I head through my 11th year I am more confident than ever that I truly understand how the market works. All that hard has put me in a good position to cope with whatever the market chucks at me. Of course there will always be complete unknowns and it is those that will eventualy disrupt things. The biggest threat to the way Betfair works, is Betfair itself IMHO.
This month is off to a flyer thanks to a good weekend. The highlight of course being the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. That went well, as did the other racing, so hopefully I can build on that now.
TV rights to do a Bosman?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 4th, 2010
An important case taking place this week in the European courts of justice. If successful the case could led to a deterioration of the money coming into UK football. I suspect there will be many battles to follow if the ruling goes against the premier league.
You can’t help but feel sympathy for people in one territory who are forced to pay much higher costs just because of a line drawn on a map. Given the mobility of information in the modern world, I don’t think this is a situation that can remain tje same in the long term future, whatever the reasons for or against.
Full story: -