Archive for November, 2010
Carling cup
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 30th, 2010
I don’t do too much on the Carling Cup but if I was on tonight, then opposing big teams fielding weakened sides is probably not a terrible idea. I find it difficult to price these matches, but a bit of speculative position taking is never going to be a disaster given the incentives in these types of matches.
The outsider will tend not to drift much if at all in the first half so a back at large odds will collapse if they take the lead. Have a preference for teams playing at home, same applies tomorrow.
Betfair widen cross matching again
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 30th, 2010
Betfair have gone for the big one and are going to ‘trial’ cross matching on pre-off horse racing today at Lingfield. Cross matching was initiated to ‘improve’ the fill rate on markets and eliminate the possibility of the book going over broke. As users subsequently found out, the first iteration also improved Betfair’s bottom line.
As you know, I am a keen market watcher and given enough races will be able to see the exact impact that this change has had on the market, it is likely to have an impact you would think. We will keep an eye on things and update the thread on the forum as we learn what is happening. It may be time to alter your strategies.
One very big open question is what happens when there is a withdrawn horse. We have asked Betfair for clarification as it’s not impossible for a trader to get cross matched in certain circumstances and there is potential for problems depending on the way Betfair are going to try and resolve the withdrawn horse. We await a response.
Speechless
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 29th, 2010
You could claim to be speechless about the prospects of racing this week. It looks like only the ‘all weather’ racing will survive, with all the other courses likely to struggle. But this title refers to my inability to speak well this week thanks to flu. Time for a break!
[Edit : Got a text from my local school saying there were 72 children off with the same thing, I hope you don't get it]
Back to the weather, it’s not uncommon for weeks like this in the winter and they are well factored into my plans. But if you are just starting out it can be depressing. As I stated in a previous post, I worked hard to bank some good times in the summer, so I can comfortably sit this out. But it is unusual this year in that we faced the same issue early in the year. As a result, lost meetings will probably set me back a good five figures in 2010. However, I’m already up on last year so everything is a bonus from here, but the lack of racing is going to deliver much less upside than could have been possible. It would be nice to end the year on a flourish.
With the lack of racing and the flu I will probably spend this week doing other things and a bit more research. It will be a good opportunity to get Christmas shopping out of the way and generally have some R&R. I will probably do some more work on the greyhounds, as this is an area where I am probably not performing at full capacity and they don’t seem to mind the cold, so it will be interesting to have a play. I’ve got an impending office move to plan as well. Bad weather is inevitable now and again, so if you push the boat out in the summer don’t fret in the winter, it’s inevitable. It’s difficult on the tough days to have a result that makes any material differnce to me so I’m not going to worrying about losing the odd day or two.
Use this time to do other things, other sports or to push forward on new projects or research. If you have snow and kids, then go out and enjoy it!
Freezing Folkstone is on, off, on, no its definitely off! Not a surprise.
Trading the drifting Denman
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 28th, 2010
With a tough week already, it looked like Saturday was going to be a white out as well. Fortunately Newbury survived with a quality card and that gave me a reason to sit behind my desk. I’ve typically done OK at the Hennessy gold cup, so wanted a fair crack at it. When you have been going for a few years you can’t but resist looking at previous years and having that as an unofficial target. Tough when the most of the racing has been cancelled.
The predominant factor in the early market was the drift on Denman.
Denman was asked to carry 2st and with uncertain ground, it was probably this that set of the drift. I don’t follow horse form so I can’t confirm that, but I suspect that the ground could have been reason that the drift set in? With that weight in such a competitive field, I’d also be surprised if the market didn’t think Denman was a little short at his early price. Either way there was a drift.
So how would you trade this? Most people would extrapolate the current trend and lay first, but that would have been a disaster here as Denman went off at an SP of 5.9. It’s typically a common issue that you see in many markets, that people put too much weight on something that has just happened and project it into the future. Often the past has little relationship to the future.
If I toss a coin and it comes up heads ten times in a row I may suspect the coin is biased. But unless I have firm evidence of that, I have to assume the next toss is 50/50. Most people would put undue weight on heads in this scenario. I didn’t choose heads and because of that got the result I wanted from this race. But I bet you there were a lot of people that laid at 7.60!
England v South Africa opportunities
Peter De Villiers is under increasing pressure at the helm of the South Africa rugby union team and will hope he can make amends for a poor year with victory against England this weekend.
Much has been made of the Springboks’ six game winning streak against the Red Rose, but results this season suggest that there is good value in backing the hosts early. In their nine matches since the start of the tri-nations in July, South Africa have tasted defeat six times. They look a shadow of the side that lifted the Webb-Ellis trophy in 2007.
Their average margin of defeat in these six matches is over ten points, while in the three they have won since, only their victory over Australia at the intimidating Loftus Versfeld Stadium was by more than four points.
The South Africans were trailing at halftime in both of their previous matches against Scotland and Wales, so we might not see their odds for the match at Twickenham contract any shorter than they are currently at any point. England’s price on the handicap markets could well shorten quickly if they gain an early dominance in the match, as they did against Australia. However, the ‘Boks came back strongly in the second half to beat the Welsh and England were guilty of allowing late tries against both Australia and Samoa, so be prepared to back South Africa at the break and lay off later if they can cross the line.
Of their nine last games all but South Africa’s most recent topped 40.5 points, but perhaps this is unsurprising given habits of Southern Hemisphere referees. The conditions tomorrow will be against a high-scoring outcome, but a couple of early tries could send the under 40.5pts price out. Don’t bank on it though. England took 24 minutes to cross the whitewash against Australia and 47 minutes before a five-pointer against the Samoans. South African fans were made to wait until the 70th and 50th minutes against Scotland and Wales.
An ill wind….
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 26th, 2010
Tis an Ill win that blows no good, so they say. With an ill wind blowing down from the artic it looks like racing is going to suffer badly over the next week. Saturday is pretty much a wipe out by the look of it.
So….. Hopefully you can now see the context of this blog entry back in the summer.
I know it seemed odd to some that you would put trading first in these situations. But that week back in the summer will likely lead, excluding exceptionals, to 5 times or more than I am likely squeeze out of this week. Making hay while the sun shines has never been so apt! The good times in the summer can easily fund time off in the winter when opportunies are sparse. But when opportunity is available at each turn, you would have to mad to ignore it. That week and this should help you understand where I was coming from.
Busy week ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 23rd, 2010
World tour finals Tennis in London, top quality stuff afternoon and evening. Champions league football and then cricket throws in its hat with the Ashes. Going to be a great week to exit November!
Cross matching goes live on inplay racing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 23rd, 2010
See Betfair announcement. Looks like they are planning to go live tomorrow on all racing: -
“Following a previous trial earlier this year, we are now running another trial of in-play cross-selection matching (‘cross-matching’) on the win markets at Lingfield Park on Tuesday 23rd November. Cross-matching will only be activated after the markets are turned in-play.
Cross-matching was introduced on most sports during 2008 and has had a significant, positive impact on liquidity. It has meant that a customer’s bet is more likely to be matched than would have been the case without cross-matching. When a bet request cannot be matched by an opposing bet on the same selection, cross-matching will attempt to match the bet request with unmatched liquidity on the remaining selections in the market. Cross-matching incorporates ‘best execution’ meaning that whenever the bet matching algorithm can match a bet request at a better price than requested, it will do so, resulting in the customer making the bet request getting the best possible price.
We don’t expect customers to notice any material difference in the way the win markets operate at Lingfield Park.”
Dinner
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 23rd, 2010
I met up with somebody last night at Gatwick airport. We talked for hours about many things related to the markets and in particular how to model behaviour and probabilites. In a world dominated by ‘experts’ it was a real pleasure to speak to somebody who actually was one! I sense the feeling was mutual.
Anyhow, when it came to paying the restaurant bill we both offered to pay and, as you would expect, we then could have dutched the bill. But in true market style my counterpart made an offer I couldn’t refuse. We would toss a coin and let the ‘market’ decide. I called heads and won.
I sense this is just the first of many discussions to come so I’m confident things will start to revert to mean over time. Anyhow, a relevant way to solve the who pays problem.
ATP World Tour Finals – player by player
The World’s eight best male tennis stars get trade blows in the climax to the tennis season, the ATP World Tour Final, which gets underway at the O2 Arena in London on Sunday. Obviously Bet Angel’s Tennis Trader tool will help when it comes to trading the matches but a few observations on the key players may also help if trading their outright odds…
Rafa Nadal (world ranking 1) – Regularly crocked, it’s no surprise that Rafa tends to end the season poorly as his dodgy knees tire. He is number one for a reason though, but it should be pointed out that most of his ranking points were won at the Grand Slams in the longer format tournaments. Hasn’t played for a month so perhaps be prepared to initially lay in his early matches.
Roger Federer (2) – In solid form, he won at Basel earlier this month. We know you can never underestimate Fed who is favourite for the title, but given his group draw, his odds for the title may drift early on. Alongside him in Group B Andy Murray has an excellent 8/13 record over the Swiss star, while Robin Soderling is capable of beating anyone in his current form.
Novak Djokovic (3) – Winner at the equivalent event in 2008, in contrast to Nadal, Djokovic often puts in his stronger performances at the tail-end of the ATP calendar.
Robin Soderling (4) – The form player. Winner last weekend at the Paris Masters, he can be backed for the tournament at 10/1. He’s odds against in his opener against Murray, but bear in mind that the Swede has just usurped the Scot as the World’s fourth-ranked player.
Andy Murray (5) – Possibly still nursing a slight wrist injury, so might assume his shot making and first-serve percentages to fall as his round-robin matches progress.
Don’t ignore the remaining players Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer and Andy Roddick though. The quality of the contestants means that the gap between the favourites and the outsiders is probably closer than the odds suggest. Last year, one of the event’s weaker players Nikolay Davydenko beat Juan-Martin Del Potro in the final – both are absent this year.
There was a little girl
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 19th, 2010
You may have heard this poem before: -
There was a little girl,
Who had a little curl,
Right in the middle of her forehead.
When she was good,
She was very good indeed,
But when she was bad she was horrid.
The market can feel like that at times and it can be the very thing that throws you off balance. But you have to believe that just as the market can be horrid she can be very good too! This week the racing card was a bit of a mess. Poor quality racing, mainly at lower grade courses with small fields. It was always going to be tough, and so that proved. There is always tomorrow to have a good day and you just move on but sometimes the market can be horrid. But also just because you had a tough day, doesn’t mean others wont. It just may not suit your style.
Comparing any day to last week, last month or last year is always going to be subjective. So don’t imagine you can get a repeat performance simply because of your prior results. No matter how clever you are sometimes the market just isn’t strong enough to work the way you want. At this point sit back and wait for clear cut opportunities, pushing your luck just won’t work. Some days the market just wants to be horrid!
Set back for Betfair Australia
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 18th, 2010
Scott reports on his blog that Racing NSW has won an appeal on what is clearly a discriminatory tactic against Betfair. Unless Betfair can overturn the ruling it’s a game changer in this territory for exchanges.
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2010/11/racing-nsw-wins-racefields-legislation.html
International friendlies part 2
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 17th, 2010
If you want evidence to back up my previous post, have a look at the following chart from Albania vs Macedonia. It would be easy to assume you could tell what was going on in this match. But this graph was actually taken at 53 mins into the match at 0-0. The match ended 0-0, go figure!
International friendlies
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 17th, 2010
I can’t offer dramatic insight into these matches this evening.
They are often difficult to price and have a lot of variables that you just can’t take account of. So if you are playing in these matches I would recommend some specualtive plays opposing the obvious. When you look at the teams, the incentive to win is a bit dulled and the underlying players will probably be jumbled around and mixed up. So it’s difficult to get a real handle on the real fundamentals. I’ll be laying at short prices if I see an opportunity, but I will also be down the gym rather than giving in a real go. A night for speculation only!
Man Utd to refinance
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 16th, 2010
News story this morning about how the Glazer’s have given notice on their money borrowed from hedge funds.
Read more about the story here: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/m/man_utd/9192771.stm
It’s interesting because the interest payments on the debt have been putting a huge strain on Man Utd’s ability to spend money. A case in point in the following sentence: -
“Earlier this year the rate rose to 16.25%”
I’m aware that raising finance in the current market is tough and rates can be punitive. I went through an exercise last year with somebody that was trying to fund a $20m purchase. We just couldn’t get an acceptable rate through private equity without gingiv up a large chunk of the business and losing control. It didn’t seem worth it.
I guess we will have to wait to see what the deal is that has allowed them to pay down the debt. But I’m keeping a longer term eye on the finances of the big clubs as this will surely dictate their activity in years to come. It’s not possible to live on borrowed funds or large levels of debt indefinitely. The long term winner will be the one that can get that balance of spending and revenue just right. I think a lot have it wrong at the moment, not just at the top.
Cock ups, blunders & mishaps
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 15th, 2010
You are either perfect or a liar and nobody is perfect.
Coming to terms with errors is the key to success in anything. If you stop or get put off by losses, errors or mishaps, you will never see the upside. Upside is always there, but a lot of people never ‘see’ it. Couple losses, cock ups, blunders & mishaps with a bit of psychology and it prevents you from getting to the good bits. It took some time, but I learnt to treat up and downside with equal weight. Psychology tends to do the opposite. Years ago I used to think that positive thinking was a load of bull but slowly I realised that it does actually work. Positive thinking does have its issues but overall it will help you.
Think about negative actions. Can you imagine for example, trying to solve a maze by stopping at the first mistake or by giving up because you keep making errors? No, to solve the maze you try to remember where you went wrong and avoid the mistake. Eventually you will attain success.
I recently forgot to code up a spreadsheet correctly and it failed horribly. It made loss after loss and was a bit of a disaster. By the time I spotted the error I was down hundreds. But….. it taught me something critical about the market, something I hadn’t spotted before. So I modified the spreadsheet and let it loose again with a mercurial change in results. I learnt from my mistakes.
The moral of this story, every mistake is just another step to further progress: -
Cheltenham
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 12th, 2010
Nice to see Chelt’s back on the card and some decent jump racing. I am hoping to get something out of the open meeting and it has worked well in previous years. Looks like we have finally arrived in the jumps season proper.
With it’s arrival we also have some bad weather on the doorstep but also Christmas decorations in the shop. It’s put me in a festive mood and looking forward to the upcoming holidays.
I tend to be a bit more relaxed in November and December as the big targets are gone and it’s more a case of not getting frustrated. Hopefully a good couple of days at Cheltenham will continue that mood. You should see increased liquidity at these races and that should help you. Good luck!
Posthumous Paul
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 11th, 2010
I am sure you have heard of Paul the Octopus by now and his recent death. I think along with the Vuvuzela this was one of the things the World Cup will be remembered for. More than the football. But, putting aside the well acceptable cognitive and predictive abilities of Octopus vulgaris, just how clever is Paul?
Here is an excellent post that I missed first time around but found in my recent google search of our departed deity.
http://betoftheweek.net/2010/07/paul-the-octopus/#more-1046
Paul chose England for the 2018 world cup bid
October
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 9th, 2010
October went very much to plan. No big upside or downside surprises and it followed the pattern in previous years of having been a strong month overall. Though it has to be said that the UK racing always takes a dip in this month as we transition to the jumps.
I managed to get a new record day in October and beat it twice again which was a surprise, I did have a few moments where I was really on form and some where the markets just didn’t play ball, but this balanced out overall during the month. Strike rate was down a bit on last year, but I have been less focused on this and more focused on picking up some quality positions. This has resulted in a few more losses than normal.
I passed another milestone last month and will pass a significant one in November so I am increasingly turning my attention to new challenges. When you push and push for years it becomes harder to reach new milestones and you inevitably have to start setting wider and bigger goals. The sort that you can’t reach in a day, month or even a year. So as we approach the end of the year I am starting to focus on the ‘what next’ question. You can work harder and harder but ultimately that will send you to an early grave, so I am starting to looking at things from both ends to understand exactly what I want to do over the next 5-10 years. Hopefully I can reach a conclusion by the end of the year.
I am not expecting any fireworks in November and have a few days booked off. The first week is always a cracking one but then it slides away from there. Time to celebrate and enjoy some of the hard work undertaken in the summer.
Zenyatta – History not made
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 6th, 2010
A real disappointment to see Zenyatta not make history this evening. But an odd ride by the jockey who was trailing by some distance for most of the race and only produced Zenyatta on the last bend. While I can’t claim to be a jockey or understand racing that well, with such a huge prize on offer, it seems odd to have ridden the race like that.
Pretty liberal use of the whip late on as well as it was obvious he had left it too late. The debate will rage on for some time I reckon.
Football’s turn for an ouch!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 6th, 2010
Bolton score against Spurs, so you would expect the odds to move a bit. However, you wouldn’t expect Spurs to get backed into 1.59; but that’s what happened! I suspect somebody sorted the odds in the wrong order or just had the wrong selection up some how and back heavily on the goal.
Bolton won 4-2 so no get out of jail card was served on this occasion. £77,809 was matched at 1.59.
Jockey title opportunties
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 6th, 2010
Another close Jockey championship draws to a close this weekend and it’s going to the wire by the look of it.
http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/sport/8619942.Jockey_title_rivals_square_up_in_dramatic_Doncaster_finale/
http://www.thepja.co.uk/champ_flat.aspx
The battle is throwing up some interesting trading opporunties as people start to discount the prospect of a jockey change bringing a change of fortune for individual horses. Certainly there is a big incentive to win races that may have been over looked earlier in the season. Keep your eyes open for racing with either of the these two riders in them, as they may present decent trading opportunties. There have been many already this week.
Fireworks at Churchill downs
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 5th, 2010
Interesting start to Breeders Cup weekend!
95% of traders lose?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 5th, 2010
95% of traders lose is a very common statistic quoted, but I’ve never seen any data on it. Somebody recently sent this to me about forex traders, which I thought made interesting reading. Obviously this is limited to the scope and definition of the survey but I think it’s an interesting article and discussion. It also shows the importance of money management and low transaction costs.
As they say, 47.3% of statistics are made up on the spot!
http://forexmagnates.com/us-forex-brokers-account-profitability-comparison/
So you think?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 1st, 2010
Bart Cummings trained ‘So you think’ steps up in the early hours of the morning UK time to see if the legendary trainer can bag his 13th winner of the Melbourne Cup. There is $6m up for grabs in this year’s race spread across the field. Given the form that the favourite is in, this should be a very interesting race and betting heat. The price ‘So you think’ has come in a fair bit already and ‘Shocking’, last years winner, is on the drift. I’m already up on the race 13 hours before it starts thanks to these moves.
With the Melbourne cup this week and the Breeders Cup at the weekend, this is the last really good chance of the year for a strong week. So I will be taking all the opportunties I can to finish the year with a bang!
