Archive for December, 2010
At last…
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 29th, 2010
Yesterday saw the first decent sporting action since 1492 or something. Anyhow, it’s seems an age since we had a day where there was lots going on.
I tucked into the racing and footy yesterday and had a good day and I am hoping for a repeat today. Fog seems to be the main problem now, not snow and ice. Let’s hope things keep moving along so we can at least have a decent end to the year. Good luck if you are playing, if you are not then I don’t blame you. Enjoy the run in to the new year whatever you are doing.
Some winter cheer
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 26th, 2010
One look at the racing card will echo what you will have seen for the last month or so, abandoned racing. It’s the worst period I have known in my ten years on Betfair, pretty bleak. Boxing day usually brings a whole slew of opportunity and some top quality action at Kempton. Today, out of the 11 meetings due to take place today, only one hasn’t been abandoned as I write this, and there is a real prospect of that remaining fixture being lost. This has be costing racing a fortune.
On the upside I was up early this morning to watch the Ashes and feeling there was value in England, see yesterday’s blog, I was lovely and green when I rose to watch the match. I also did of a bit of racing in Caulfied and Randwick to top up the account.
It looks like a thaw is about to set in this week but the forecast is ominous again at the moment for the end of the week. Let’s hope the weather returns to normal again and we don’t experiance a ’63 winter again. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to have a normal day!
Overreaction to Aussie supremacy?
Having taken a look at the stats in preparation for the fourth Ashes Test down under, one of the things that has really stood out is that there has not been a draw at the MCG since 1997. In that period there have been 10 Australian victories and England were beaten by an innings and 99 runs the last time the sides clashed.
There’s no denying that the Baggy Greens have an excellent record at the MCG, but traders should remember that the Aussies are a shadow of the team they were last time England visited the imposing venue.
Other than the batting collapse in Perth, England have been the dominant side in the series and their price – they were available at 3.25 on Betdaq at time of writing - looks longer than it should be for this pivotal contest. Unlike the pitch in Perth, the MCG track will help negate the pace attack from the Aussies while also allowing spinner Graeme Swann to have a say in the result, something he was largely denied last time.
Overall England look the better value to win the Boxing Day clash and that of course would mean a British return for the urn. I would certainly expect England’s price come in a fair bit towards the middle of the contest.
Merry Christmas and all that!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 24th, 2010
Just a sort note to wish you a Merry Christmas / happy holidays and all that stuff. 2010 has been a good year and we are looking forward to more of the same next year. With the weather not exactly perfect, I’m off to spend an extended break with the family. I hope you enjoy the festive period.
Going grey
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 22nd, 2010
With the weather hitting the horse racing, I’ve been playing around in Greyhound markets a lot more. Greyhound markets are a different beast from horse racing for sure, but they are viable as a market. I don’t think they are viable on the scale of other markets but they certainly can produce the goods. I can’t afford to spend too much time on these markets but I think they should be of interest to many others.
In this P&L you can see that I earned £42 in 36 markets. While this is only just over £1 a race on average you can get up to 100 races a day. Also, I did this in between my other activity. Start multiplying these numbers up by day, week and year and they look interesting. I’ll stick a video up for Bet Angel customers when I get the chance. Worth a play.
New Betfair charge?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 21st, 2010
Seems like a lot of people received an email from Betfair yesterday evening saying they will charged £4 a month if they have an inactive account. Even I got one!
My inactive account was an account I used to test Euro configurations of Bet Angel and now, despite my activity elsewhere, it looks like they want to charge me unless I actively use it. I’ll be on the phone this morning to withdraw funds and close it down. I suspect there will be quite a few others that will do that as well.
For those that opened an account and forgot about it, it looks like Betfair will just debit their account. Not sure that an email is enough effort to warn those people. A letter would be more appropiate and the timing, just before christmas and during the christmas break, is a stinker on the PR front.
Anyhow, check all your accounts and log into the premium charge area to check if you have some forgotton accounts or else you will be charged by the look of it. Log into them or do something to avoid the charge.
I predict a draw (Part 3)
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 20th, 2010
Can you guess the outcome of this match? In total £4.1m out of a total of £4.36m traded was on the draw. Remarkable!
I predict a draw (Part 2)
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 20th, 2010
Second part of what will probably be a three part post.
The draw is now trading at a remarkable 1.42 and £2.85m of £3m on the match is on the draw! To put that into perspective only 10% of the money on the Man City vs Everton match is on the draw, a more rational number.
Question now is what sort of a draw will it be. 1-1 is usually the favoured result and that is being backed in as well. I think I may have a play on this match.
I predict a draw (Part 1)
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 20th, 2010
The draw is a “underactive” area of the match odds market. Out of the three outcomes availble, the draw tends to get proportionatly little attention and volume out of the three.
So, a bit of a surprise to see the draw accounting for 96% of the volume in the match. Not only that but even more surprising to see the odds backed in from 3.00 to 1.30, before the off. The italian football market is a curious one isn’t it?
McCoy is sports personality of the year
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 19th, 2010
Well done AP, well deserved. Looks like racing’s campaign to raise awareness, and votes, has paid off. I’ve got a lot of respect for jump jockey’s and especially for AP. So it’s great to see it the sport getting recognised.
SPOTY
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 19th, 2010
Or Sports Personality Of The Year in its long form.
Let me declare my interest. I would love Tony McCoy to win this award. Not only is it fully deserved, but it would also give a boost to racing. Let me temper that with the fact that the short priced favourite just never seems to win this award any more. Also, in the general public, there is little recognition of who Tony McCoy is.
Before I got into horse racing via Bet Angel I wouldn’t have had a clue who he was, now I regard him as one of the best sportsmen in the country. I am pretty sure you could give AP a dead cow and he could still win a race. There are not many sportsmen who have been at the top of their sport for 15 years and you should also affored respect for all jump jockey’s and the risks they take. In any other sport you would instantly be a 1.01 to win the award given such an achievement. But against more popular sports, you wonder whether the general public will vote for him?
Is he value? Given the interest in the betting community I sense this has driven his his price down. Betting activity needs to be matched with votes for a win. I don’t know how many votes are cast but given the declining interest in racing I wonder whether his price is a little short? Anyhow, here is hoping AP can get the award.
A legend
Something from nothing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 18th, 2010
Hey, it’s been tough lately but that’s no reason to give up completely. Yes, you can be relaxed if you have worked hard during the peak season, but there is still opportunity out there; even if somewhat reduced.
Despite running around to do the last few elements of organisation ahead of Christmas I sat down behind my screen for the odd moment yesterday to keep my hand in on the racing. Not a great total but I know a lot of people who would be happy with it. I averaged £20 a race which is no great shakes, but it soon adds up when you string a few together. I probably only spent less than five minutes on each race so the other way you could look at it was that I had to commit just over an hour of my time to do it. When you look at it that way, it’s not too shabby. I also ran some stuff on a spreadsheet to gather some market data for later analysis.
Keeping your hand in can be useful but you should also use this spare time do more research, look at other sports, read up on some material etc. Being effective at anything is like making a house, you have to lay the foundations at some point. Go build some foundations!
Arsenal’s price shoots out
The draw for the first knockout stage of the Champions League has been made and of the four English clubs in the competition Arsenal have been dealt the toughest two-legged clash by drawing Barcelona.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the price for the Gunners to win the tournament immediately doubled subsequent to the draw from around 15 to 30. Traders watching the proceedings may have been able to see that Arsenal were to draw Barca, anticipate the shift and beat the hordes to lay and back at the higher price. Well done if you did!
You may remember Lionel Messi’s four goals against Arsenal at the quarter final stage last year and for those who think he is likely to do so again, his odds to be the competition’s top scorer will prove attractive, even at 3.0. Chelsea’s Nicholas Anelka has five CL goals to his name so far this season and considering he will go against big outsiders FC Copenhagen next, his 13.0 to get the golden boot could also shorten after his side’s round of 32 match.
Full draw is as follows: Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk, AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Valencia v Schalke, Inter Milan v Bayern Munich, Lyon v Real Madrid, Arsenal v Barcelona, Marseille v Manchester United, FC Copenhagen v Chelsea.
Betfair results fail to impress
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 15th, 2010
Betfair announced their maiden results yesterday. You can view the full regulatory release here: -
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201012140700098801X
Or a more concise BBC report here: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11989347
The upshot was that the city didn’t like them and sent the shares down 16% to below £10 for the first time. Quite some way from the £15.50 reached on the first day of trading. The results always contain some interesting reading material and now they are public, we will get to see a formal statements at least twice a year. Have a read of the full report to get all the detail.
Much better
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 14th, 2010
Not only am I feeling better but I must say, what a relief it was today to experiance three race meetings on in the afternoon and some decent field sizes as well! After such a barren spell recently, it was really nice to get really stuck into some markets again.
Despite keeping my hand in the game over the recent barren spell I haven’t been doing as much as normal and it’s suprising how rusty you can get. I’d be suprised if you took a lot of time off, how you could become very rusty indeed.
Anyhow, the card looks good tomorrow so I will going all guns blazing to get something, as the cold weather looks set to return later in the week. It could last for a while according the forecast which is frustrating but it could result in the first true white christmas I have seen.
Finger crossed for the King Geogre VI!!!
Sorry
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 14th, 2010
Sorry if you were inconvenienced by the recent outage on our main web site. It’s the first such outage we have experienced. During it we realised that people were unaware that our duplicate .co.uk domain was still active (different hosting company). We will make sure that this is better publicised in future.
As we use separate servers for everything you should be reassured that it was only the web site that was inactive. All other aspects of Bet Angel, including your use of the software, were unaffected and functioned normally. Since day one we have taken special care to ensure that is the case.
In light of the delay that our hosting company experienced in resolving the problem, we have chosen to review this arrangement going forward.
Once again, sorry if you were inconvenienced.
And the winner is?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 12th, 2010
‘Reality’ TV is reaching it’s year end climax and I’m looking forward to a boost to my December totals.
Despite their nature, there are sometimes some very intuitive trades to be made on reality shows. Not always, but quite often, opportunities jump out of these contests. So while I don’t tend to watch this sort of stuff, some logic will point you in the direction of a clear opportunity.
On the X-Factor I have had up to £4.5k green on some contestants. As the winner approaches though, I’ll have to accept a more modest total. The moral of this story is to never overlook a market, as opportunities can occur anywhere. Keep looking for them.
Arsenal the business
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 11th, 2010
If you look at the top of the premiership there is a lot of ‘buying points’ going on. Chelsea and Man City have spent a fortune buying up talent to keep hold of a top four place. Man Utd have also spent a lot, but not as prolifically as the former teams. One likely reason for this is that Man Utd are run as a business, albeit a heavily indebted one. So they can’t afford to run the business in an insolvent manner. Much of this relies on success though, so they HAVE to do well or they will suffer.
Outside of those three we have Arsenal. While they may be seen as underpeformers, realtively speaking they are not. But the thing I like about Arsenal is the way they run their business. This article gives you a peak inside this: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11403202
Because of this I would tip Arsenal to be there or thereabouts for a few years. You never know when a new Man City or Chelsea could come along, but I feel Arsenal are in the unique position of having a decent vision of how the club should be run off the field and a consistent pattern of performance on the field. You can’t fund immense losses forever, so you feel those clubs burdened with those issues will eventually have to revert to a more sensible model. That should mean they head for lower performance in general.
The finances in football have distorted the landscape significantly, I think this has lead to football losing it’s soul somewhat. I’d be in favour of a more level playing field, but I realise that’s unrealistic now. But sooner or later football will have to pull itself together. In the meantime follow teams at either end other financial scale for season long value opportunties.
Cheltenham didn’t bust
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 10th, 2010
Phew, things worked out OK today. Nothing spectacular for sure, but £560 from 14 markets is a useful return to the fold. Nearly all that came from Cheltenham, so the prospect of a decent day looks on the cards with the twilight and evening racing to come.
Cheltenham or bust!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 10th, 2010
With most of the racing lost to the weather once again it looks like the week will rest on Cheltenham for most racing traders. It’s a high risk strategy as there is no gaurentee that Cheltenham will provide favourable markets, especially with little infront or behind of it. Already Channel Four have asked for the times to be put back so they can cover the meeting, that’s going to impact things as well. Lets hope that when the races get underway properly they provide some good trading fodder. Good luck if you are giving them a go this afternoon.
No end in sight
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 9th, 2010
Just been browsing the Met Office web site for news on when the cold weather will end. Unfortunately, despite a respite at the weekend, it looks like it is still here for a while. The main issue being a high pressure in the Atlantic blocking progress of a westerly airstream.
I was on fire this week last year and could do no wrong, difficult to be on fire this year. On a daily basis there is very little to be done, it’s not worth me doing the odd all weather meeting here or there, so my focus is other sports.
I’ve always enjoyed trading on football and there are some intuitive strategies to be had. I mailed out a list of videos last night. I’ve also returned to Greyhounds during this period to try to develop that a bit further. I suggest you revisit both if you are looking for things to do. For racing traders Greyhounds will feel different, but generally familiar territory.
Don’t forget, you shouldn’t feel guilty taking a break. If you have worked hard during the summer, there is no reason to beat yourself up for taking time off now. You have to bank the good times for moments like these and a little sacrifice of leisure time in the summer can more than be made up in the winter with little impact on your bottom line.
I can’t actually remember such a barren period for the horse racing markets and the Met Office reckon the current period is setting records which date back to 1993. So it’s a period that probably hasn’t been seen in the betting exchange era. After a really good year it looks like I will fall at the final hurdle and have a rubbish December. Knocking 1/12th off your year isn’t an ideal scenario, but there is little that can be done about it. It’s really annoying as I really pushed the boat out this year and it looks like the final numbers will be out of my hands. I don’t think I have the energy to put as much effort into next year and I also have commitments planned out in the next couple of years, so I think I will have to be happy with 2010 for a while.
Still, who knows what is around the corner? Hopefully some sunshine!
I'm not dreaming of a white christmas
Online betting tax imposed
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 8th, 2010
Stark headline for a lot in this sector, but in the latest austerity budget in Ireland there were proposals to level out the playing field by introducing a new tax on phone and Internet gambling. As always, details are a bit sketchy at the moment but shops have been taxed for sometime but other channels not, so this is addressing that discrepancy.
Quite how it will work and be enforced is difficult to see at the moment, but it will be an interesting move to watch. It’s really difficult to now how it will affect exchange users, but the Irish government have confirmed the application of this to exchange users will be different to other forms of gambling. Let’s watch how it unfolds.
Existing Irish bookmakers were very guarded in their response.
Next NUFC manager
Newcastle United FC’s sacking of Chris Hughton – apart from being one of the most stupid backroom decisions in the ludicrous world of Premier League football – opened us up to a few smart trades over the last couple of days.
The favourite usually chops and changes based on nothing more than speculation and is directly affected by what the potential new managers say in the media. Martin O’Neill was installed as the immediate favourite, then Alan Pardew quickly moved to the head of the market when he expressed an interest.
It seemed fairly straight forward – lay off the favourites at the shortest odds and back them when they get replaced with a new favourite, when potential new fave becomes the latest to talk about wanting the job to the news cameras of the world. Pardew now looks likeliest for the job at 2.34, but that wasn’t the case when Martin Jol suddenly quit Ajax. The Dutchman moved to the top of the market – which was the cue to lay him. He’s now slipped back down again (to 4.3).
There are a number of markets that behave in this way, depending on media hype and exposure. X Factor to an extent works like this and the BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year, the result of which will be announced in a matter of days, exhibits similar characteristics. When there is more media interest in a particular candidate, there is naturally more interested in them as a betting proposition. If it’s not warranted, the market will soon readjust.
Lessons from Liverpool
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 7th, 2010
Tonight we are in the final group stages of the champions league. These matches can throw up some odd results as some have strong incentives to win and others much less so.
Last night the market was pretty stable in the Liverpool vs Aston Villa match. Then the teamsheet came out and there was no Gerrard or Torres on it! You can see the effect this had on the price. It is always worth remembering that while football matches are generally very stable before the off, there are times when that is definately not the case. At least we can often get an understanding of why.
In the end the market got this wrong and Liverpool were comfortable winners. In hindsight some good value was created by this move.
The week that wasn’t
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 6th, 2010
I picked a good week to be ill last week. Never will a chest infection and fever be so well timed!
It’s never fun to be ill but with so much racing cancelled last week and some football, there was little going on in the markets. It can be really tough making money sometimes but a complete absense of opportunity obviously isn’t going to help either. But I actually quite enjoy the lack of pressure to perform and the chance to do something else. I’ve been working so hard for so long that I’d sort of forgotten what a normal life is like!
Another problem I also face, is that on the days where there is one meeting on the card, it’s really tough to get enough out of it to make an material difference. I’ll often just pass on those days and focus on investing instead. Sometimes even two low quality meetings can exhibit the same issues. But I can’t really complain, as this is an issue of scale.
I managed to pull in some reasonable results over the weekend, but other than that I didn’t do much. The snow and ice prevented me from getting far in the car either so it’s been a funny sort of week. For those solely into horse racing its been a bit of a disaster but these weeks are very rare. I can’t remember when the week was so bad from a racing perspective.
It would be a disappointing end to the year if the weather continues like this. I had a good December last year so it would be financially costly this time around. You would guess continued bad weather unlikely, but we need that jet stream to move soon to have a hope. If you are suffering on racing, take time to look at others markets such as greyhounds and football. Both present reasonable opportunities and if you are doing nothing else, they are worth a look.
A rare sight last week
Don’t pay till May
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 4th, 2010
It was only when my favourite football club got relegated that I started playing around in the relegation and promotion markets. Since then it has become a regular stamping ground for me during the season, especially at the start or end. People seem to have this wonderful propensity to put too much emphasis on recent results or events. Either that or they carry hopes that are just clearly out of whack with reality.
So far this year I have made some good trades on these markets including Liverpool, Portsmouth, Southampton and Blackpool. I’ve got Bolton wrong but got several others right, which more than covers the others. Plenty more trades to follow, I am sure.
With such dominant teams at in the top division it makes sense to look for lays in winners markets. This tends to work in your favour over time. Also, it’s very rare to get a team that completely dominates over a season so early leaders are often a good lay at the right price. In relegation markets, you often see newly promoted teams perform well initially before falling away in the second half of the season. Next season they will often a good price for relegation. Look for early performers to fade and skirt with relegation at some point. A sense of panic can ensue in the market with a bad run.
Over the last six seasons I’ve managed to predict who will finish the bottom team each year and I also try and predict all 20 finishing places, a pretty tough ask. However I have acheived a correlation of around 80% using some simple metrics. Currently those metrics tell me that West Ham shouldn’t finish bottom as there are better candidates for this slot. Also it tells me Blackpool are good value for relegation at their current price. They may escape but the market is pricing in too much at the moment. If you are not confident with nailing you colours to one selection, trying backing or laying multiple selections using the dutching or bookmaking tools in Bet Angel. That works well and offers less risk.
The only issue with these markets is they won’t be settled till next year. But that shouldn’t stop you from taking part in them as you will get a nice bonus in your account come May next year.
After a sublime start , Chelsea are currently undergoing a reality check
Trade the Ashes to Adelaide…
Australia enter the second Ashes Test under intense pressure after being humiliated by England, who managed to turn around the first Test in Brisbane last week.
The Adelaide Oval, venue for the Second Test, was once famous for throwing up frequent draws, although there have only been three here since 1991.
If anyone’s considering laying the draw on Betfair or Betdaq (currently trading at 2.06), I wouldn’t disagree with them, despite Australia seemingly lacking a convincingly reliable wicket taker and cooler weather forecast which will probably not help the pitch to break up. However, I will point out the potential benefits of backing now before laying off after day one.
The Oval track is undoubtedly a batsman’s pitch and we are likely to see some big totals on the first couple of days. If the batting team have racked up a hefty score without the loss of too many wickets, the price for a draw is sure to shorten to odds-on, at which point you can lay off to lock in a profit.
2012 all over again?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 1st, 2010
Been keeping an eye on the winner of the 2018 world cup bid market. England are shortening up quite quickly and are now favourites to win the tournament. I hope they do, or else I will be a very old man by the time the World Cup tournament eventually comes, if it does at all, to England.
It’s very reminiscent of the London 2012 Olympic bid. Paris were in the lead for ages are looked nailed on to win the bid but London came surging through on the final few days thanks to a lot of effort by Lord Coe and his team. I wonder if history is about to repeat itself?
