Archive for February, 2011
England to pack a punch for Le Crunch?
Even without Marc Lievremont’s admission that he hates the English the anticipation for Le Crunch would have been huge. The outcome looks likely to decide the Six Nations Championship and, in all probability, whether England can claim a first Grand Slam since 2003, they same year that they went on to lift the World Cup. You might have heard that there’s a Rugby World Cup later in 2011.
There’s plenty of opportunity for traders in the match. As is usually the case with France, we’re never sure whether they’ll display their extraordinary talents or fail to gel as a team. We do know that Les Bleus took a while to get going against Ireland a fortnight ago and when faced with a barrage of sound from a fired-up Twickenham perhaps the same should be expected of them this weekend. Back England now at 1.5 as I’d only expect that to shorten in the first quarter of the match.
Total points is interesting as although we’ve seen that both teams play open rugby and we might expect plenty of scoring opportunities, in the opening matches we’ve also seen that games have been won or lost in the forwards. Two solid packs may cancel each other out, so I would reserve judgement for this one just now.
With six tries to his name already in this tournament, Chris Ashton is unsurprisingly favourite to score the first try at 7.8. It’s a fairly brave move but I’d be keener to lay. The French have changed their side to apparently pack out the midfield, as well as having sacrificed the slight Clement Poitrenaud for the bulkier Maxime Medard at fullback. I think the French will pay extra attention to Ashton tomorrow and England coach Martin Johnson will know that. Expect the first try to come from elsewhere.
Doing darts
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 25th, 2011
Sat here the other evening watching the premier league darts and suddenly realised what I am looking at is actually pretty similar to other sports in the way it is scored and played. The format of the premier league darts is also interesting with the introduction of the draw.
The underlying feeling and the way the odds move is fairly similar to other sports and can surely be traded in a similar manner. A huge benefit of course, is that darts is quite a quick game and therefore it’s very attractive as a trading market. Volumes seem pretty decent as well.
The premier league darts has really caught my interest and it’s an area I plan to do some more work in over the period of this tournament.
Accidents and evolution (Part three)
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 24th, 2011
Never one for rhetoric; I presented a similar case, to those I have described in the prior posts, at a talk I did last year. Using a similar model we followed how that can evolve from a base set of criteria and environments to something more complex. The following two snap shots are from a control where we work at random and an evolved model a few generations on.
Here we are using £2 at random
Here we use an evolved model
I reckon I could replicate the performance of the two at an pre-determind date. But some of the performance will always be reliant on prevailing market conditions, but it’s the gap in performance that is the most interesting. The second benefits from picking the ‘right’ market, direction and exit models. It was only by studying why one performed better than the other that I was able to fully understand the reason and why that was important. You can then use than to hone other strategies.
Of course there an infinite amount of variables, so you need to point it in roughly the right direction. If you don’t know the direction, then do a binary chop to get there quicker. You also have the issue of course that the market can and will change. We recently saw the introduction of cross matching across many sports and that has changed the ‘environment’ to the point where I am sure some strategies have started to fail. This in turn will alter the behaviour of those people who are trying to avoid becoming dinosaurs. Sometimes however accidents in evolution produce strange results. On more than one occasion I’ve made an error on a spreadsheet and it has failed to do something I wanted. That in turn though created some unusual payoffs which lead me down paths I hadn’t considered exploring. Just another path on the road of evolution.
So while using a genetic algorithm is a useful trick, evolving doesn’t stop, it continues ad infinitum. If you stop evolving you may appear in the betting exchange equivalent of the natural history museum in a few years time.
Accidents and evolution (Part two)
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 23rd, 2011
So how did my view on evolution, natural selection and Darwin translate into market strategy?
There are many ways to apply it, but first you need to start. Your first strategy is to have no strategy, just poke around at random. This gives you a control sample to work with, a base metric from which you can build your activity. You should regularly revisit your control to ensure the base you are working from is still the same as when you started.
Next you need to decide the environmental factors. In the case of the market, when do you open a position, when do you close and what do you use to judge that? Could it be the market type, the price, the time? You could have a number of factors that tell you if a market is ‘right’ or is adequate for your participation, these define the environment in which you will work.
Next you need to decide exactly what your entry and exit points are. Start simple and build out from there. It will be fairly obvious, fairly quickly where things are not working and you can ‘kill’ off these experiments. After each life cycle of experiments carry forward the successful ones and add in some new variations for the next generation. It’s surprising how quickly you ended up with a much better understanding and a much better strategy. It’s not just the entry and exit that are variables the environment is also, don’t forget that.
It would be nice to say ‘That’s it’s’ but that is rarely the case. You have to remember that the market itself evolves and people in the market occupy certain niches. You need to find a niche but also compete with people who may already be present in that niche. Your activity in the market will also shape the environment, so that in itself produces a response from the environment. One failure of market participants is to fail to evole a strategy, every strategy has its moment but many people find, often by accident, something that works; from that point it starts slipping away. The general reason is that your activity has probably forced others to evole and so the whole things rolls on again but also a lot of participant never work out why what they did works. I am always restless for understanding.
More reading: -
Accidents and evolution (Part one)
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 22nd, 2011
Some time ago, when I was young, I was accosted by somebody on the streets of Guildford. He was trying to challenge my view of the world and get me to sign up to their cult or something. He followed me down the street and asked me if I really believed the world, everything we see, was created by accident. Without hesitation I replied, YES!
When I was young I had asked myself the same question. So I went to the library and started to read up on the theory of evolution to try and understand if there was some simple scientific logic at how you could arrive at something so complex from something so simple. I found my answers and wrote some simple code to see them in action. The code basically started with something white and introduced some Darwinian variables such as mutation and predation and I studied how it turned from white to black over several generations. I change the environment to test how that affected the evolution.
To this day I use these principles when working through a system, process or problem. Evolution does, eventually, provide a solution even if you don’t have a clue when you start out. Have a look at what you are doing and see if these principles can apply to what you are trying to achieve. People often talk about neural nets in trying to find an edge in the markets, but I have found a bit of Darwin a much more viable and logical solution.
Not again!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 20th, 2011
Got back to my desk on Sunday evening to see that Betfair had been offline again on Sunday afternoon. My commiserations for anybody that was caught out. I had some spreadsheets running but, fortunately, they were not completely caught out; only a minor hit. I am relatively inactive at the moment as the February is a good period to take time out with the family. I work very hard in the Summer, so this time of the year is when I can take time off, forget about emails and the markets and do so without too much impact on the bottom line. I’ll often take some time off this month and prepare for peak season and get ready to kick off some new projects.
I’m surprised to see Betfair down on a quiet Sunday, it is very unexpected. I just wish we had some better explanation of what is going on. Till we can have a week without problems, I’ll need to put a new key on the keyboard.
FA Cup
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 19th, 2011
Most of this weekends ties look to have a certain amount of inevitability about them. You would expect to see most of the favourites see off the weaker teams, but I do fancy the look of Stoke vs Brighton.
It has a nice set up to it with Stoke doing ‘OK’ in the Premiership but Brighton going great guns in league one. I reckon the seagulls will really be up for this match and will have the belief they can win. Therefore, for this match at least, I will favour positions that profit from a good Brighton performance (EDIT : I should caveat that this is a bit speculative as Brighton at away. At home it is much more favourable). For the others, I find it difficult to look much beyond the favourite, though team sheets could change that.
Ladbrokes results
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 17th, 2011
There is a summary here: -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12490900
Or the full detail here: -
http://www.ladbrokesplc.com/media-centre/press-releases/releases-2011/2011-02-17.aspx
A mixed bag of results, but pretty good given the underlying weakness in core markets. Labrokes is still 3-4 times the size of Betfair depending on how you measure it.
Champions league
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 16th, 2011
Well that was a cracking start to the champions league knock out stages!
The cat has been well and truly put amongst the pigeons with Spurs win in Milan. Harry’s steps towards legendary status are getting quite common now. Can Arsenal over turn Barcelona this evening? It would be a memorable night if they could and this match has my attention. Arsenal can’t afford to concede but must really win to have any chance in Barcelona. Barca will have no expectation other than a win on their mind. Since that infamous match against Chelsea a few seasons ago I am sure it will be an electric evening at the Emirates. I sense Barca will try and soak up the pressure and hit Arsenal on the counter. After the fireworks of last night, my contrary manner makes me want to step aside the emotion and do something around Barca. However, at this tight stage it often makes sense to back the outsider and trade out at half time if things haven’t happened. Should be an intriguing match.
This evenings European football
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 15th, 2011
The two key champions league matches don’t look exciting prospects from my viewpoint. Two home wins on the card and two away teams that will be trying to avoid defeat. The first leg in these cases don’t throw up many clear opportunities usually. It’s the second leg that is often more interesting given what happens in the first.
The match that has caught my eye today is the Aris vs Man City match. Man City are quite short but should win away from home and their pedigree is unproven as yet. That’s the one that looks most interesting at first glance.
Dubai far from a failure for Woods
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on February 13th, 2011
OK, Woods may have flunked the last round in Dubai but it seems other ventures in Dubai worked out quite nicely, even though they didn’t!
Another difficult day for racing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 12th, 2011
Racing hasn’t had it easy this winter. Over half the meetings lost in December, November wasn’t a bundle of joy and the start of the year hasn’t really gone to plan.I am struggling to remember when we last had a normal week.
Lots of good thoroughbreds need a decent run out ahead of Cheltenham, but few are getting one. Just when you think you have seen it all; we see, on what was going to be a great days racing, a disaster at Newbury. It’s too early to speculate on exactly what happened, but it’s ripped a hole in what should have been a very good day. Let’s hope they solve the problem quickly and make sure it never happens again. A very sad day for connections and all involved. Nicky Henderson described the events were ‘Like a horror story’
With half term on the horizon and a quieter month I think it’s time to have a break from things to return fully charged for peak season. Winter isn’t outstanding at the best of times, so little is lost by going for some R&R at this time of year. Horrible incident, let’s hope they get to the bottom of it quickly.
Late winner in the Manchester derby?
Traders will be arguing among themselves about whether there will be a goal-fest on Saturday when Manchester United and Manchester City do battle. The game at Eastlands earlier in the season produced a goalless draw, which was arguably one of the worst games of the year. However, who can forget last year’s seven goal thriller when Michael Owen scored a 94th minute winner to shatter the Citizen’s hearts.
Since August Roberto Mancini’s side have built up a reputation of putting men behind the ball and being happy for a point against the better sides, a perfect example of this was at the Emirates in January. That has been further highlighted in the number of goals the Citizens scored against sides in the top five positions – one.
It’s not just the blue side of Manchester that has struggled to score against top five opposition, United’s four games against such clubs have produced just three goals.
Bearing in mind that there has been one goal scored in the last two league meetings between United and City, it’ll be worth letting the game develop and if it remains tight back the Red Devils to win it late on when their price has risen significantly. Paul Scholes headed a late winner at Eastlands and another would bring in a healthy profit.
Dubai desert classic
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on February 11th, 2011
Received a useful tip earlier in the week about Thomas Aiken. Six of the last seven tournaments he has finished in the top 20 and was available at 120′s. After the first round he is five under par, in second place and in to 25′s. I’ve also backed Sterne at 440 to 50′s, Martin 450 to 75 and a fair few others.
No trading out for me until they finish the second round. All I need now is a leading contender to shank a shot into the rough and I’ll be sorted!
Football rich list
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 10th, 2011
It is always interesting to read the Deloitte reports. They seem to highlight the significant, and growing, gap between footballs elite clubs and the rest.
Seven of the top ten clubs come from the English premiership. The top clubs even in this elite division are pulling away from the others.
http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GB/uk/press-release/0966fd0057101210VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm
But there are still a large number of structural issues in the game.
Dogs
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 9th, 2011
Had a quick go at the televised Greyhound racing last night. Nothing special but a satisfactory result. There are lots of greyhound races on each day and if you have never tried it, it is worth giving it a go. Volumes can reach £10-20k per race and the markets are a little illiquid, but they are a decent supplement to horse racing for smaller users.
Where Angel’s don’t fear to tread
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 8th, 2011
Just over a week ago we had the Betfair upgrade and first outage.
Betfair has a chequered history of outage’s, but have been much better in recent years. Because Bet Angel was around before the API was created, we have always maintained a dual mode of operation. You can connect to Betfair via non API (The website) or API modes.
I tend to connect by the API but I have both available at all times, just in case there is a problem at Betfair’s end. One of the characteristics that we saw last week was that Betfair had a tendancy to bring the website back up first after an outage. Therefore Bet Angel users were able to get online quicker than others. At moments like this timing can be critical, especially if you have an open position. This capability in Bet Angel pretty much pays for itself alone, in this mode Bet Angel becomes an insurance policy. I traded where others didn’t last Monday and that paid good dividends on what was a tough week in general.
The other side effect from last week is that I gathered data on how the market acted when the API was down. By doing this we could ‘see’ what effect knocking out the API had on the market and its participants. It was a unique opportunity to get under the skin of the market. So, there you have it. While it created some problems, it was also an opportunity.
Let’s hope things are back to normal now and we can settle into a ‘normal’ pattern again. Only thirty five days to Cheltenham!
The market was very different last Monday afternoon
Super Bowl off to a slow start?
It’s not often we trade on the NFL, but amid all the hype, how could we not mention it? Super Bowl XLV kicks off on Sunday evening in what promises to be a fascinating contest between the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The total points market is always one of interest and this year promises to be no different with Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger occupying the quarterback positions. The over/under points total is set at 45.5 (I seem to remember points spread being set at a huge 55-58 last year) and traders might be interested to note the highest total over the past eight years is 69 points, when Tampa Bay destroyed the Oakland Raiders in 2003.
In the past eight Bowls the average total is 48 points. One factor to consider is that the Packers and Steelers have two of the most feared defences in the NFL.
From a trading perspective, the trends point to a clear strategy. Super Bowls often start slowly. Only twice in eight years (2010 and 2007) has there been more than six points scored in the opening quarter. The average first quarter points total during that period is just 5.1 points. So, back under points / lay over points and reverse around the start of the second quarter. Both quarterbacks have put up good numbers all season, so the points should flow as defences start to tire.
Down, Down
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 5th, 2011
I would like to give you an update as to how February is going, I’ll let you know when I can log into Betfair!
It’s been the worst week for Betfair for some time. If Betfair would like to offer up some more detailed explanation I am sure we can all make a better judgement as to why the site is less stable than ever recently. In the absence of that we will have to speculate why a company that recently floated for over £1.5bn, can’t keep their shop open for business.
Over the last few years we have accepted more general charges, transaction charges, data usage charges, premium charges and variations on terms that we felt were there to support the infrastructure and investment. That this doesn’t seem to be happening, is a little perplexing; perhaps even worrying. But hell, at least I can play on some arcade games or fund some poker promotion.
February is traditionally the time of year that I take a fair bit of time off. When my father passed away I took most of February off and as it’s a quiet time of the year anyhow, I’ve slipped into this modus operandi. It’s good and a worthwhile exercise to do anyhow. You can lay down some plans for the rest of the year and contemplate the last year, while enjoying some hard earn rest. I think it may be well timed this year!
Let’s hope we get a return to the expected status quo soon. Speaking of which (Showing my age): -
The impact of transfers
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 5th, 2011
Back before the start of the season I tipped a number of teams to struggle and managers likely to leave their jobs, by and large I have been spot on. A couple of surprises, but come the end of the season I’d should be well up on the deal over the course of the season. So, how did I find these opportunities? Just one word, money!
That money makes the world go around is true and none more so in the world of football. The net effect of transfers should be to increase the performance of teams in the long term. However, we all know that just chucking together good players isn’t enough and you need a good manager to get them to work together well.
Torres is no doubt a fine player but his confidence has evaporated recently and his move away from Anfield was probably the right one. Will it galvanize Chelsea? That is another question altogether as its over to Ancelloti to make that happen. I’m not so convinced he can keep all these star players firing. Will paying £35m for Carroll be a wise investment or just a wild punt? Much will depend on if ‘King Kenny’s’ management style is suitable for the modern game.
Meanwhile over at Man Utd, Ferguson is in the increasingly usual position of not having as much money to splash about as other teams. This means he needs to draw on his management experience to make things happen. His pedigree to do this is undisputed. You also have this interesting ‘confirmation effect’ at the moment in the Man Utd team. Unbeaten this season and chasing that down has added extra belief and incentive into the team. The champions league will be key to the elite teams confidence.
So, given all the spending I reckon we are in line for an ‘as you are’ period. All things are relative, including spending. One teams buy is likely to negate the others. The top teams are likely to continue to be out of the reach of aspiring mid div’s.
My focus in now on the bottom of the table where an interesting end to the season is almost assured.
The new Torres?
Pub landlady wins EU case
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 4th, 2011
Venues showing live Premier League matches from foreign broadcasters are not breaking EU law, court advised.
Full story here: -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/feb/03/eu-law-sports-rights
This could make a big change in the financing of the premier league.
Twitter feed
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 3rd, 2011
In case you were not aware we do have a twitter feed. You can view it at: -
http://twitter.com/betangel
We have played around with it on and off for some time, just putting in thoughts and notes as they occur. You can see the current tweets there at the moment which will have been useful for you. If there is enough interest we will continue doing so.
Ouch!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 2nd, 2011
You have to feel sorry for money chasers sometimes. On Sunday we saw one of those ‘classic’ horse racing moments when a horse, that traded at 1.09 before the off, fell at the first hurdle at Fakenham.
That said, I don’t feel that sorry for money chasers as when I see something at short odds I instinctively try to oppose it. Low downside and high upside is just too tempting to resist. Therefore I will always look for an opportunity for those odds to be turned over. In this case there was a simple strategy to oppose something this short in a jumps race. I do feel sorry for connections though. It must be gutting to go through all the hassle to get a horse to a track only to see it do that.
