Archive for June, 2011
Betfair premium charge & earnings soar
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 29th, 2011
As we are all aware now, Betfair pleaded poverty and an imbalanced business model again yesterday, when announcing another new charge. This time hitting consistent earners for up to 60% of their profits. We heard the similar stories for data charges, transaction charges and the premium charge part one and all the other various amendments over the years to their charge structure.
This didn’t stop them from announcing record revenue and earnings a few hours later. Earnings per share are up 56.2% on the year before. So on the face of it, it looks like profitability isn’t a problem. See the full announcement here: -
http://corporate.betfair.com/media/press-releases/2011/2011-06-29.aspx
Given the apathetic response to the first premium charge I always guessed that Betfair would go for an increase at some point. The thing I didn’t guess was that it would triple! I pencilled in a worst case scenario of 50% but never thought a figure above that was feasible, rational or viable. It seems I was wrong. It remains to be seen what impact this will have on Betfair’s ‘We like winners’ stance.
The curious thing about this new charge is that it makes sense, at 60%, for me to teach others how to do it and not to do it myself. This doesn’t really solve Betfair’s ‘problem’ if they are concerned with the cost of servicing my account? It also means if I can earn 40% of my Betfair total on Betdaq then I should switch, and this is perfectly possible to do.
On the positive side Betfair just confirmed by imposing this charge who are the most successful ever users of Betfair. So I should be pleased with that as I am in that group. It also means that increased competition in the market is now almost a nailed on certainty, which we should all welcome.
At the lower levels of the market there is still room for newbies and aspiring super users. Unfortunately it is now unlikely they will reach the same heights as people that have gone before them, but there is still plenty of opportunity there. You will just have to stop when you get to £250k!
Good end to the month
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 28th, 2011
A surprisingly strong end to the month continues with good performance on Saturday. Unless I mess up on the final few days it should be a good month. Wimbledon continues its great run of throwing up wonderful opportunities. I think this could be the best grand slam I have seen for opportunities. Maybe I have just been in the right place more often than not?
Mondays and Tuesday can be weak in the summer, poor quality racing, only two cards and thin volume a lot of the time. I’ve been taking some time off this year because of this. No point in flogging a dead horse, much better to get some balance in your life. OK you miss some opportunities, but there is a sensible return where the benefits of some R&R outweigh any possible financial gain. At this point in the season, this is your chance to get some balance back. That said, don’t miss Wimbledon as it’s turning out to be a real treat this year. Maybe wait till next week to have some time out!
Feast or farce
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2011
Not difficult to choose what to do this afternoon. Yes there was some racing on but when end up with 15 minute gaps and one race at Pontefract had just two runners, though curiously this was the best race of the day for me.
Over at Wimbledon there were quite a few decent matches and opportunties so it was this that held the main interest for me today. As a point of interest, if you want evidence that people are using models like Tennis Trader, have a look at the following implied probability graph. The odds map perfectly onto the the points won or lost on serve, you can clearly see the ranges.
There are 351 tick increments on Betfair, an average of 36.7 games at a Wimbledon match and hundreds of points in a match. If you can pinpoint where the odds should without an aid given those variables, you are a better man than I!
Betfair confirms CEO to quit
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2011
“After ten years with Betfair, and nearly six as CEO, David Yu has informed the Board that he believes it is now the right time for the company to start looking for his successor. He does not intend to renew his current contract (which expires in October 2012) and therefore the Board will now begin a search process for a new CEO. During the process of identifying his successor, David will remain fully committed to the Company and to delivering the plans for future growth.”
http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201106270700111416J&fe=1
Probably a bit of a shock for people who invested early on and now find themselves sitting on a 50% loss. The market has reacted calmly to the news, but most of it was probably in the price already.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BET.L+Basic+Chart&t=1y
A week full of opportunities
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 26th, 2011
We are now just beyond the half way point in the year. So double what you have made so far and you end up around your annual total!
Glad I am sat here and not half drunk on some beach. OK I lied, but any regret at not getting sun burnt has been tempered by some fantastic results in the market this week. I’ve really picked up speed in June and I am heading for a great month overall. Despite taking more time off this year I am still ahead of the previous year, I must be doing something right!
The early rounds at Wimbledon have thrown up some first class opportunities. I recently waded through ten years of grand slam tennis results to look at some key metrics and it’s proved enlightening. Wimbledon has provided many opportunities already to profit, so I hope the second week picks up where the first left off. Rather than post up lots of charts here, have a look at the Wimbledon thread where I have been posting charts from matches I have been actively trading. It acts as a useful collecting point for these and should give you some interesting perspective on what I am looking at in a Tennis match.
I managed a record race this week. Not for the week, month or year, but an all time record. I can’t tell you how great that feels after so long in the market. I’ve been making good progress on complimentary activities as well this year and have learnt new things about the market in the process. Hopefully in the final six months of the year I can put some of that into practice.
Talking of practice, don’t forget to download the latest version of Bet Angel which now has a fully functional practice mode. With Wimbledon into it’s final week, why not fire up some Tennis matches and play around with Tennis Trader to get a feel for how to trade tennis. Wimbledon is just one of many tournaments with good liquidity. Before long the tour will be heading over the pond for a time zone that will mean you can trade tennis in the evening to compliment anything you do during the day.
Betfair poised to replace chief executive
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 25th, 2011
Interesting report in the Telegraph which popped up late last night.
Back to earth with a bump
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 23rd, 2011
In line with my objective to take more time off this year, I had a well timed break after after Royal Ascot to head off for a BIG wedding abroad. What a fantastic experience it was and how I wish I could have extended the trip to the post wedding bash on the edge of the mediterranean. Wimbledon was calling though, so I had to make do with what was a fantastic few days instead. We packed so much in and hardly slept each night, so it felt more like weeks than days.
I arrived home to the rain and a rain delayed Wimbledon. I immediately felt like I could have got away with a few more days! I also kept pondering whether working in the UK is all it’s cracked up to be. With modern technology, it’s quite possible to work anywhere I want. I can’t help thinking I should do exactly that.
Originally the wedding was last week but moved to this week. This was lucky, or else I would have missed Royal Ascot. As it was, Royal Ascot went very well in the end. I think I may have done a slightly better job over the week, but not that much better. I managed my best ever day at Ascot, my second best week on Betfair and if you include Betdaq, my best ever, ever, week. I say “if you include” as I am sure that while working on both exchanges was definitely complimentary overall, there were a few races where I just couldn’t focus on both intensely enough and had to sacrifice one or the other.
I was nervous about Ascot having had such a rough time last year, but on just one day this year I beat my entire total for the same week last year. How? I dug down and learnt from last year and changed my approach. I’ve seen so many ‘experts’ vanish without a trace I never taken anything for granted in whatever I do, especially in this market! If you ever want advice from somebody on anything, time in the job is a great qualifier.
Some great memories
Tennis – Grass vs Clay
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 21st, 2011
What statistical evidence is there to support the differences between grass and clay court Tennis?
Yesterday we highlighted some ATP data that told you the difference in how much shorter a point is on grass. Winning a point on grass is an average of 1/3rd the time on clay. My first instinct on reading this statistic was that a match on grass must be shorter than on clay.
Ever curious, I downloaded and analysed ten years worth of grand slam matches and looked at some facts. What I found was that, in mens tennis, there was an average of 10.1 games per set on Grass in the grand slams and only 9.60 on clay. It appears that grass is a bit of a leveller when compared to clay and that matches last longer on grass on average. Clay accentuates the skill of a player but grass rewards winning on serve, which is quite likely anyhow as the stats in Tennis trader will tell you.
There were lots of other discoveries I made in the data. I’ll post some more up over Wimbledon.
You could always play on both at the same time, Nadal and Federer did in
Grass is for cows
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 20th, 2011
Wimbledon is the only grand slam on grass, but it wasn’t always that way. Two other tournaments were played on grass on the grand slam circuit. The US Open, was played on grass until 1974, and the Australian Open, was played on grass until 1988.
Very few players would not admit that a win at Wimbledon would be a career defining moment. But it’s not through trying that players fail; it’s generally down to how each surface plays. Research by the ATP in 1992 showed that the average length of a point on grass was just 2.7 seconds versus 8.2 seconds on Clay. As there are more tournaments on artificial surfaces, many professional tennis players tend to prefer the slowness and higher bounce to be found on clay courts to the speed and low bounce of grass courts. That is why you see serve and volley players doing well at Wimbledon, as well as those with a powerful serve.
So, is Wimbledon dull and boring with such short lived points? More tomorrow.
Bounce
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 19th, 2011
As this post got buried on the blog the last time I posted it, I have reposted.
I’ve been reading this book recently and it resonates with me. Of all the things I have done in life I have maintained most wasn’t talent, just hard work and lots of practice; but maybe that is how you acquire talent? I’m learning to play the piano at the moment. I’m rubbish, but getting more ‘talented’ everyday.
If your desire is strong enough you can achieve many wonderful things. Having worked up from an very ordinary background, I firmly believe that this is true. If you want an insight into how many different types of people have become successful, have a read of Bounce. A good book.
Final day of a busy week
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 18th, 2011
Well done to Rory McIlroy who continued to rip through the US Open. Unfortunately this scuppered my trade which needs a competitive field to work. At 1.40ish this leaves only one possible strategy, to back or lay McIlroy. I reckon most people will lay McIlroy given his blow up in the US Masters. It’s a clear fact however, that the error most people make is to take past trends and extrapolate them into the future. Rather than go on gut instinct, I’m going to knock up a spreadsheet this morning and see just what McIlroy has to do to hold onto his six shot lead over 36 holes. I reckon he has learned from his Augusta disaster, he certainly interviewed well last night.
Ascot was tougher yesterday, but I’m well ahead of last year year; I have done well to learn from my experience last year. I don’t think I’ll be able to manage a record but you never know. I’ve aimed for my second best ever and will see where I end up. I managed to pick up some decent results from other races yesterday so that balanced things out. Overall it’s been a good week.
Royal Ascot / Open Golf Thursday
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf, Horse Racing on June 17th, 2011
Another good day in the bag for Royal Ascot, but I left it late today. I didn’t get a real blockbuster race till near the end of the card. I had to work much harder than yesterday and I took my foot of Betdaq, as working harder meant I couldn’t keep focus on two exchanges effectively. I did broaden my activity out on Betdaq though to other races and they worked well. So after Ascot I’m going to continue my work there.
I did have a hiccup mid afternoon when my Internet connection went down. Quick as a flash I went to my back up connection and continued, but I never found out why it was only my main machine that failed. A quick reboot between races brought it back to life.
Overall, The weather made the markets a bit jumpy and there were some real moves around. The biggest was when the trainer of a horse came on and said his horse was unlikely to win because of the ground. See the graph below for what happened next. The weather has been incredibly poor this week and heavy rain has set in again this morning. So I think we could be in for another tricky day today unfortunately.
I got off to a great start on the US open golf, so it looks like it is going to be a very good week indeed. Here is a list of the top ten +ve movers overnight.
Rory McIlroy – 23 to 3.8
Charl Schwartzel – 80 to 14.5
Sergio Garcia – 90 to 25
Y. E. Yang – 170 to 24
Graeme McDowell – 70 to 28
Bubba Watson – 55 to 38
Louis Oosthuizen – 250 to 32
Brandt Snedeker – 70 to 38
Jason Day – 46 to 36
Stewart Cink – 100 to 50
For a full list of movers, visit the forum.
US Open golf
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf on June 16th, 2011
I love the majors as they very often throw up some excellent opportunties. So while things are very busy at the moment, I will be taking time out today to open up with some positions on the US open.
The Blue Course at Congressional is longer than when previous majors were held there and the par has been reduced to 71. That is almost certaintly going to make the scoring much more competitive and the scores lower. Should be interesting.
Royal Ascot – Day two
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 16th, 2011
That went well! I have to give myself a 10/10 for yesterday. After a quiet start with a few errors in my P&L I slowly got into stride and managed to really hit top speed by the end of the day. In the end I managed to achieve my best ever daily result at Ascot which was incredibly satisfying. I can’t pretend today will be a repeat performance, but I will try hard.
It’s difficult to pick any highlights out of the day as it all went pretty well. I didn’t do that great on the Prince of Wales stakes but managed to turn it around and still get something from the race, so that felt like a win. The reason I just did worse than I should have, was because I took a little too much risk on board. But that’s no bad thing, as it shows I was on form if I pushed it too hard. Today I touched the edge of the market.
We are just south of Ascot and the weather here this morning is just dreadful. That is bound to have an impact on the racing today. Hopefully things will cheer up a bit this afternoon.
Ascot – Day one summary
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 15th, 2011
I thought that went quite well. I struggled last year but this year was ok and I could have done better if I was a bit more aggressive. In hindsight I was too passive yesterday, didn’t take on board enough risk. So I’ll give myself an 8/10 as it was good, but I could have done better.
Frankel made a bit of a mess of the feature race of the day and the market on Frankel was so strong that it soaked up two £200k+ bets with hardly a blip. I told some delegates at during the morning workshop today what would happen to the price of Frankel in the run up to the race and I am glad to say I was spot on. That made it a good trade.
As I predicted Betdaq markets were showing a lot of strength yesterday and therefore I now forecast this for the rest of the meeting. There were some races that I did better on one or the other exchange, but the fact that both are very tradable is a huge bonus. You also have to lop 20% off the Betfair result, so the incentive to trade on Betdaq is high. I’m beginning to widen my activity to other markets as well, now that I have a feel for the big races. Not without its difficulty and I am not 100% focused on Betdaq at all times, but the effort is proving worthwhile.
This morning I had to go out to buy a new suit for a wedding. But this evening I’ll analyse some of the data from the first couple of days and give you an insight into how the market is shaping up.
Royal Ascot day one
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 14th, 2011
An intriguing day one at Ascot. After all, what colour hat will the Queen be wearing. LOL!
I’ll be all guns on the first day to work out what feel the market brings this year. I’ve paid a lot of attention to Ascot over the years and each year we see the market shift subtly in one direction or the other. I didn’t do a very good job of it last year, comparatively speaking, so I’ll want to put in a better performance this year. I’ll be gathering lots of data to analyse and offer some opinion as we move through the week.
I don’t fancy the first race today at all, but the remaining races seem to throw up some clear opportunities; I’m looking forward to getting stuck into those. The St’James palace stakes already has £600k matched on it at 8am this morning, mainly thanks to the participation of Frankel. Can’t wait to see how Frankel runs.
If you reflect on comments made about previous big meetings on the blog. I suggest you fund your Betdaq account and start using it on Ascot this week. I strongly suspect Ascot will generate very favourable markets on Betdaq. Betdaq Angel is free to use, so download a copy ready to unleash your fury on the markets!
I wish you the very best of luck at Ascot this week.
It’s a trick…
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 13th, 2011
Shot.
Great value entertainment and trading fodder today at Queens, in the traditional warm up for Wimbledon. I thought Murray did a great battling job in Paris and his display against Roddick the other day was just awesome. Today, after an early wobble, he closed out against Tsonga and did some headline making shots as well, but in a different manner to the Roddick match. Hold onto your hats as Wimbledon fever is almost here. Can’t wait!
Canadian entertainment
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 12th, 2011
Not often you see a formula 1 race like that! I lost count of the number of times Jenson Button pitted, then he goes on to win the race! Vettel lost it on the last lap and was turned over at 1.04, Button was backed at very big odds. I wasn’t trading it but perhaps should have been given the weather conditions. Sometimes it’s just nice to watch the sport, especially when it’s this entertaining.
£174m
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 11th, 2011
The Deloitte football report is out and makes continued interesting reading. The current austerity in the western world doesn’t seem to have affected football. Their finances are as bad as ever but the players get paid more in a week than a group of the fans could reasonably expected to earn in a year. The clamour for ‘talent’ continues unabated.
There are some very interesting bits in the report. Manchester United spent 46% of its revenue on pay, but rivals Manchester City splashed out a massive 107%. Top of the wages league is Chelsea with £174m, last years wage figures are shown in brackets.
- Chelsea – £174m (£167m)
- Man City – £133m (£83m)
- Man Utd – £132m (£123m)
- Liverpool – £121m (£107m)
- Arsenal – £111m (£104m)
The report noted a couple of key findings that I found interesting.
“The problem is with the middle tier of clubs, those who are neither chasing a Uefa place or facing relegation,” said Mr Jones. It appears the wage bill in these clubs is unsustainable in relation to the revenue they generate. Overall the 92 league clubs as a whole lose money on their day-to-day operations – and at the pre-tax level, losses have continued to grow, hitting £600m in 2009-10. For some more info and graphs visit the following link: -
Free money
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 11th, 2011
Bets are being taken on the end of the world on the 29th October. You can get 1/100 on the world not ending.
If the world does end then, of course, you will not be around to have to pay out the liability. Click here to see the latest odds: -
http://www.victorchandler.com/vcbet/en- … 1200/22889
In fact, this is a neat way of generating low cost cash flow. Offering very short odds at some point in the future and you get cash now to only pay a little ‘interest’ out when the bet comes in a few months time. A neat funding trick and good publicity. Damn, I’ve fallen for it!
Will Harold have a bet?
Betfair files complaint over Greek ban
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 10th, 2011
Betfair has filed a complaint with the European Commission over the ban on betting exchanges contained within the Greek draft egaming law.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/betfair-greece-idUKLDE7571AL20110608?type=companyNews
Acropolis now?
Levy board statement
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 9th, 2011
The HBLB made a statement yesterday which you can read here: -
http://www.hblb.org.uk/document.php?id=411&search=
Betfair’s response is here: -
http://corporate.betfair.com/media/press-releases/2011/2011-06-08.aspx
Morning workshop
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 8th, 2011
Bet Angel has a ton of different functions in it. To help Bet Angel users get the most from our product. We have decided to start running some morning workshop sessions. We are doing them in the morning on quieter days when there is the least impact on the trading day and also to give you time to return to your own desks.
If you are interested in attending, you can get more information by clicking here.
A comedy of errors!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 7th, 2011
This could easily describe my sub standard activities yesterday, but instead it relates to an incident yesterday evening.
I started trading a race with the urge to visit the loo. The race was a little late getting off, so with the position in reasonable shape I thought I would do a quick sprint to the loo. I promptly kicked the door on my sprint out of the study and smashed my toe against the corner. So instead of some relief, I now found myself on the floor in pain, desperate for the toilet with an open position in the market. What to do; ease the pain and see if I still have a toe left, get some relief or save a position in the market?
The market won, the pain eased during the process, my toe was just about intact and some needed relief followed.
There are a few lessons in there somewhere!
Federer loses French Open final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 5th, 2011
I’ve deliberately titled this post in a manner that is completely dissimilar to the current headlines out there. Well done to Nadal winning the French open; but if you look at the flow of the match from a statistical viewpoint, it was more like Federer who actually lost it in my opinion.
It was a fairly tight match, till the last set at least, 7-5, 7-6, 5-7, 6-1. You would expect the younger player of the two to do better in a tight match and the longer a match goes that has to be your leaning. Over all Nadal won 143 vs 130 points. For most the first set Federer was on top of the points tally, but the failure to close the set out was a real blow.
Set one and set two Nadal had 9 winners vs 15 & 18 from Federer; you can see Federer played some good shots. But the enforced error tally shows a different story. 17 for Nadal in the first two sets and 39 for Federer. For the third set Federer improved and the stats read 11/16 winners and 8/7 unforced errors, this set was farily even. But Federer couldn’t find any winners in the fourth and his error count went right back up. OK Nadal obviously had something to do with the way Federer played, but it was mainly errors on Federers behalf that cause the defeat. If you want a key to demolition job in the last set, Nadal’s return of Federers serve was at it’s peak at this point; he definately won that last set!
Now the Tennis circuit moves off clay and onto grass. Time for short points, power and the brutal servers to take centre stage.
Derby result
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 4th, 2011
A satisfactory result. Not my best, but not my worst either. The market seemed pretty boyant today and volumes were much better than last year. Racing should be thankful that the Queen will bring so much attention to next years Derby. Can’t only help can’t it?
I’m taking tomorrow off from an activity perspective. I had hoped to trade the mens final at the French Open tennis, but I’ve been going downhill the last few days with a heavy cold and need a rest. I’ve struggled today. Hopefully I’ll be fit and raring to go again come Monday.
Derby Day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 4th, 2011
An interesting day yesterday. The two Tennis semi finals were good, but not perfect trading fodder. I could have done with Murray coming back into the match a bit. Nadal / Murray had matched bet volume of £30m, the other semi was almost exactly the same amount. The Oaks had matched bet turnover of £2.6m.
Turnover on the Oaks was up on last year, but that can be accounted for by the way the field manifests itself. I will be keeping a keen eye out for the numbers on the Derby today. Given all the press around the Derby it should attract more than average interest today you would think.
Tennis will have to take a back seat to the horses today. I may look at the footy later depending on how the racing is going. I’ve got a really bad summer cold and chest infection to go with it, so I may have an easier day if the afternoon goes well.
Fab Friday
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 3rd, 2011
Today, we have a decent looking day ahead of us on the sporting front.
The Epsom derby meeting kicks off today and the Oaks is always a reminder of the first race that Betfair took bets on back in June 2000. To be honest I haven’t really ripped through this Friday for a few years. So I’ll be taking things careful until I get a feel for the day.
At the French Open the top four men in the world battle it out in the semi finals and it’s such a tantalising prospect. All of them have excellent reasons to want to win their respective matches. Djokovic hasn’t played for four days but will highly motivated to win against Federer who has been playing well recently. Murray has been looking the most complete he ever has, but is still ‘injured’. It’s all set up for two great matches. It could end up a bit distracting for me but I’ve already done the maths and know my possible entry and exit points in the matches and will have two TV’s running today in an attempt to keep up with the action.
Should be a great day.
May
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 2nd, 2011
Another month has gone and I’m feeling more optimistic about the year as it wears on.
Each year I’m deliberately pessimistic at my chances. I’d rather have low expectations and exceed them, than high ones that force my hand. God knows I spend so much of my life tied up in numbers and so on, I swear I’m going mad some times. However, I’m much more relaxed this year about and have spent a lot of time doing new things; it seems to be helping! I’m very driven, but by the need to explore new frontiers. Like any explorer, every ocean sailed leaves me the question of “What’s on the other side of this land?”
I’ve been busy exploring some new land this month on betting exchanges. Nothing has come of it just yet, but its has thrown up some interesting material already. I made a loss on all these new strategies, but that’s fine. I now have an understanding of what I am looking at. My next step is to refine the process to cut out the biggest losers, this will tip me nearer a profitable strategy. Where those occur is obvious from the data I have collected. You should always be exploring. If you stand still in this game you will soon get caught. Keep testing new ideas, thoughts and processes. I use the spreadsheet function on Bet Angel to test stuff nearly every day.
I’m pleased about May, not only did I manage to avoid my jinx this year, but I actually had a pretty good month anyhow. I wasn’t really expecting that, as I had a cracker last year and matching that was an outside chance. But I did it!
June will be different, I had a quiet time last year and nothing really fell into place. As a result I have marked down my expectations this year. But I also have a wedding to attend in June, many miles from my base in the UK. Therefore I owe it to my friends to not touch the markets while I am away. Big weddings like this don’t happen very often so it would be an injustice not to pay it due respect!