Archive for October, 2011
My Melbourne
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 31st, 2011
Me and the Melbourne cup go back a few years now. Many moons ago I got interested in the ‘race that stops a nation’ and learned that it really did stop the nation, they have a national holiday today.
So, intrigued, I got up at 4am one dark winter Tuesday to see what all the fuss was about. Nothing really happened apart from a lack of sleep and I returned to bed disappointed. Back then I had converted have the garage in my old house into an office that I could work from. So I slept on the floor that night so I wouldn’t disturb the rest of the family. The following year I tried again and did a bit better, but not much. My wife thought I was mad getting up at 4am to watch a bit of racing.
From year three however things started to move in the right direction and I built year on year on my knowledge and understanding. So this year I am looking forward to giving it another go. I have taken up the kind offer of a Bet Angel user to shift time zones to give myself the chance to participate in a more reasonable frame of mind and in more comfortable surroundings than a garage floor.
Good luck if you are giving a go tonight.
Melbourne cup carnival is here
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 28th, 2011
The race that stops a nation isn’t too far away now, but the action really kicks of in Flemington today / tomorrow, depending on where you are in the world.
We have a number of very high profile, rich prize money racing in Melbourne this Saturday, Tuesday, Thursday and next Saturday. It should prove to be a real feast of high quality racing.
From a European perspective there is the issue that most of this takes place in the dead of night. However, if you want to look at and learn from this why not do some automated stuff overnight? Whether it is just to collect data or test an actual theory there is plenty of scope to get Bet Angel to do things that you can’t.
I’m really looking forward to the carnival this year. About six years ago, I think, I tried to do something on it and failed but have got better over the years at pulling something out from this meeting. Good luck if you want to give it a try.
Have a break
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 26th, 2011
With a busy week planned for next week I am having a continuing a bit my break this week from all things betting exchange related. I am dipping in and out of the markets but not with any gusto. I am busy on some non betting exchange stuff at the moment, so rather than a half hearted attempt, I felt it better if I tested a few things rather than put in half a full effort. Now we are heading into the winter season it’s possible to do that, but during peak season it would be a definite no.
Their are many benefits of having a break. First you don’t burn out, second you relax a bit and that brings come clarity of thought which and gives you a base on which to ‘think forward’. When having a break, I tend to put myself in situations where it’s not possible to keep up with day to day stuff. That’s the only way to have a true break. So apologies if you sent me an email recently, you are unlikely to get an immediate response, but you will get one, once I am back into routine.
If you never take a break, do it. You will return fresh and full of new ideas. It’s a healthy thing to do.
Every action..
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 25th, 2011
Requires an equal and opposite reaction… said Issac Newton.
So my attention is drawn to the clash between Aldershot and Man Utd this evening.
Man Utd should win, but the odds are discounting a bit of uncertainty, which is probably a fair reflection of the likely team and how they will play. But can Fergie risk anything less than an emphatic victory? I’m on the look out for a reaction to the stunning result on Sunday. I imagine that will galvanize them into action.
I’m not really into these matches generally as they are difficult to accurate assess, but I sense there could be an opportunity in this match this evening.
United vs City
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 23rd, 2011
One of the big matches of the season is up today, the Manchester Derby. I’m really intrigued.
This is the real acid test of who is going to be in the ascendancy over the season. Both have thrown down the gauntlet with very good early season performances and matching each other stride for stride so far. So this match is the first opportunity to throw both in the mix and see what comes out of the melting pot.
You have to feel there is a good chance of a draw. Either side will not want to lose and that will cause either side to really chase down a goal if they go behind. Local matches always throw up more draws than non local matches anyhow. I’d love to watch it but unfortunately I will be on a plane at kick off so I wont get to see it at all. I’ll have to fire up my laptop to view the highlights when I land.
Good luck if you are getting involved. You may be interested in taking up Betdaq’s offer of your commission back if either team come from behind to win. Click here to learn more about the offer. Just how often would this happen? On average the away team scores first 44% of the time. 32% of the time they will score first but not win, so it’s a definite possibility. But, Manchester City have only won once at Old Trafford since 1974 – a 2-1 victory for Sven-Goran Eriksson’s side in 2008. It’s going to be an interesting battle.
Click here to learn more about the offer
Short priced favourites
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 22nd, 2011
I have a tendency to look to lay short priced favourites but this weekend there are two that appear nailed on to win. First up this morning was Black Caviar, 14 wins out of 14 and going for the 15th at just 1.05. A bloodless victory saw her romp home and send her forward to Flemington next where she is likely to encounter more opposition. I think this is the shortest price I have ever seen a horse go off in a group race.
Next up will be New Zealand in the Rugby world up final. I’ve really enjoy the Rugby this year and learnt a lot from it. I’ve never traded it much before and the world cup was an opportunity to experiment and learn. The key element for me was that points are constructed in a slower manner than other sports and that makes it interesting.
The final looks very similar to the last final in 1997 between South Africa and England. France have stumbled to the final in unconvincing fashion and New Zealand should be able to dispatch them easily. Though it’s worth nothing that only two previous hosts have won the competition and England only lost 15-6 in 2007. It’s still hard to see beyond New Zealand at 1.13 however, the tournament is theirs to lose. Betdaq are offering commission back if New Zealand win by 15 points or more. Worth a look.
Many hands make light work
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 21st, 2011
If you are searching for that elusive edge, have you thought about utilising Bet Angel’s many varied automated features? They say that many hands make light work and it’s true on these markets as well, even if they are virtual hands.
Using the spreadsheet functionality on Bet Angel it’s possible to construct very simple to very complex commands, instructions, tools and scripts to do pretty much whatever you want. You can also use it to test ideas or concepts fully automatically while you are busy doing something else. It’s a very useful way to explore the market or actively participate in it.
The way we have designed this tool is pretty clever as well. It’s possible to use Bet Angel’s main trading interface while the spreadsheet does it’s own thing. It can do this thanks to the way the multi market tool Guardian works. You can get Guardian to cycle around markets or load a ton of them onto one workbook for it to work on simultaneously. The advantage of this is that you could create, for example, something to look for arbs on football matches, or perhaps certain conditions on certain markets That can run automatically in the background while you work on the racing.
We have some very innovative solutions that people have put up on the forum. It’s amazing how creative people are given the right tools. Hopefully we can deliver more in the coming months.
If you are interested in how to use this functionality, then please view a few videos for the basics of how to set up and use it: -
http://www.betangel.tv/video/using-bet-angel/using-spreadsheets
You can use similar functionality on both the Betfair and Betdaq versions.
The champions league gulf
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 19th, 2011
Just had a good look at this evenings matches you can’t help but wonder if UEFA’s coefficient is a bit cocked up. Either than or whether there really is such a massive gulf between the top teams in Europe and everybody else. I suggest the outcomes are driven by commercial incentives in reality.
Barcelona are an amazing 1.05 to beat Plzen this evening. We have Chelsea t 1.12, AC Milan 1.27 and Porto 1.30.
Several uncompetitive prices were offered out last night. The only tempting one last night was Man City, given their weak start to the group stages. Would have turned out to be a great trade. As it was, I was getting sozzled in a hospitality area at Southampton watching the curious phenomena of English players playing in an English league. Still some way from the billions of the champions league. Tonight I’ll be back behind my desk. I am looking for some value in the Porto match.
It doesn’t take a genuis to work out the most to least goals this evening, so I won’t post them up. Good luck this evening.
Pep, how many goals will you win by?
That’ll do nicely
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 17th, 2011
I had a feeling Saturday would turn out to be an interesting day, so I pulled out all stops to take advantage. I did well and it was a real pleasure to net my best day ever (At least before commission).
I managed to pick up a lot of decent results from a wide spectrum of events on both exchanges. Thanks to favourable commission rates and favourable liquidity conditions on Betdaq, it meant I found it pretty easy to beat my post commission Betfair totals on a lot of events. Overall I’m really chuffed with how it went. I’m picking and choosing my targets nowadays, so I’m glad I got Saturday just about right.
I’d happily recommend using both exchanges now, as I think both are perfectly tradable. I may not have said that a couple of years ago. It’s a big positive that we have two viable exchanges now. Yes, liquidity is lower on Betdaq, but it’s growing and there are fewer strange things going on over there, which makes it a bit easier. That also means the actual fill rate is higher in a lot of cases and that reduces overall risk. I note that different sports are at different levels of liquidity at the moment. But if history is anything to go by I think that may change. I guess either may suit different people and styles, so I suggest you try both. However, if you run both versions of Bet Angel next to each other you can see that both exchanges more or less track each other, but sometimes they do slip apart.
Betdaq is used by the vast majority of on-course bookmakers so you can possibly see some late hedging going on now and again. But more or less they are similar. A price held up on Betfair very often does the same thing on Betdaq, but at that point Betdaq often shows a ‘cleaner’ path forward. In short I think it’s worth having both up now as you can get an extra dimension to the markets.
The market is an ever ebbing and flowing tide so I’m always on the look out for anything that is changing shape or form. I’ll keep you informed. Something curious happened to me recently, I’ll see if I can post up later this week.
Anyhow here are a couple of highlights from Saturday. I’m going to talk about these at my next course on the 17th November. These were NOT the biggest results of the day, but there were two of the most satisfying:-
Good start to a good day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 15th, 2011
Got up early this morning to give the Caulfield cup a bash and got it just right for a really good result.
We have a ton of really good racing at Ascot today so that should produce some really good potential as well. I am sure everybody will be keen to see Frankel run again and at such short odds you would expect the win to be a formality.
Such short odds in such a big race will mean the market is stuffed full of money on both sides of the book. While this sounds great it can be a bit of a mare as the fill rate will drop and this will increase the risk you are taking in the market. In line with my recent policy I will be using both Betfair and Betdaq today. This is because the fill rate on this race will most likely be higher on Betdaq. I reckon I could get a really good result on this race on Betdaq so I will be putting more funds into my account to give it a really good bash. It’s worth getting Betdaq Angel fired up and ready to go on this race if you find yourself stuck behind £50k on Betfair.
Domestic football is back into the fold today and the Rugby world cup semi finals will also add to the interest today. It’s going to be a busy day!
Whipping up a storm
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 14th, 2011
Only racing can conspire to turn something that was supposed to be a PR win into a PR loss.
Richard Hughes dramatic news last night merely highlights and drives forward what racing will be talking about this weekend. Forgot the wonderful racing at Ascot on Saturday or the fact that Cheltenham is on the cards today. Everybody will be talking about the whip.
Steve at Mull it Over, sort of sums up the mood in racing at the moment. He also seems to confirm what I mentioned on Monday in that form will be really jumbled up in the short term while these changes work their way through.
I’m not well educated enough on the use of the whip to give you a firm judgement. But I can see why it is used in racing, and also what racing is trying to address. I do wonder whether education is a key component missing from racing? I didn’t really have much of a clue about racing when I first started to get involved but slowly learnt the ropes. For a complete novice it must be daunting.
Maybe good promotion and education, maybe through shared ownership, would help racing’s cause? From an outside viewpoint, at the moment there is too much of a gap between the core of the sport, the authorities that run it and new people getting interested in it. That has to change for racing to move forward.
Book%
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 13th, 2011
I fielded a question from somebody recently about the book% and what information does that contain?
I’ve seen quite a few theories about what the book% can actually tell you, but here is what it tells me.
At it’s most basic level the book percentage is merely a broad measure of the market. A big number of selections will equate to a big book% and small field a small one. This is due to the spread between back and lay prices. For example two selections priced at 1.99 would create a book of 100.5% on the back side and 100% on the lay side. If you expanded the selections to ten runners priced at 10′s, the best book you could get on the lay side would be 95.2%.
Early on in a market the book% will be higher than near the start of an event and this contraction is caused by more and more competitive prices being offered to the market. This process produces a subtle drift in prices on the back side of the market.
Back in the early days the book% was higher than it is now. Overtime it has shrunk and that has meant that outright backing or laying strategies have become a lot more viable. But whatever you do, you can’t avoid giving something to the house in the form of commission. However, in highly variable markets its quite possible to get a back or lay price matched above or below the VWAP price. This makes backing or laying for value quite possible. A side effect of the shrinking of the book% over the years is that less money has been lost and this, I suspect, is one of the reasons that Betfair have felt uncomfortable with the lack of losers. But it’s an exchanges biggest USP as well.
From a trading perspective the book% doesn’t hold much value for me as it is a re-active measure. When the price on a highly liquid runner is shortening, this will increase the % and when it is drifting it will decrease it. You could argue it pinpoints the turn of a trend but that is very reliant on what is happening elsewhere in the book. You may as well look at a chart at that point!
Book% isn't an open book
Dilemma
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 12th, 2011
It’s just gone 08:30 on Wednesday morning and I’m up over £700 on the day already. On Saturday, I sat down to do a decent days work on the exchanges. Across both I earned somewhere between £3.5-4k which was similar to last year, slightly higher as Betdaq is contributing more than it did in prior years. What’s my point?
As you are probably aware I’ve been doing this for over a decade now, have collected a ton of data and experience and know the markets in infinite detail now. I can tell you what is likely to happen in the next few milliseconds and the next few hours. Despite this, thanks to new charges, you can earn more than me at this now; it’s an odd situation. I am effectively at a disadvantage in the market. This causes a dilemma, two in fact. The second I will explain on a future post.
The upshot is that I am currently pondering what I should do about this. I have loads of great ideas around the software which I can spend more time on, we also have a nice office here kitted out with excellent training facilities which is relatively underused. But the bottom line is that, even with punitive charges, I need to be sure doing something else is a good use of my time . I love messing around and learning new things, doing new research and exploring the limits of what I do; but it also has to have an economic payoff and not impinge too much on the wider development of completely new things I want to do professionally and that of my family. Over the last decade I have worked on more than just betting exchanges, so that demands increasing attention also. The share of this activity has grown faster than my work on betting exchanges.
Using Bet Angel on Saturday yielded the equivalent of about 320 monthly subscriptions. This morning, the equivalent of another 50. There is no doubt it’s good value for money, so my task there is to try and get that message across. If I fail, then the bottom line is that will be worth more to me than it is to others. On the training side we are looking at a number of options to help people achieve their potential but the same rule applies there also. So if you want to experience advice from somebody that actually does it, register your interest there so you can keep up to date with the new things that we are doing.
But, as we exit the busy period and move into November, I am definitely in full on pondering mode!
Mission impossible
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 11th, 2011
Scotland travel to Spain this evening in an attempt to pull off the biggest shock in Euro qualification history with a win in the world champions back yard. Before we completely dismiss their chances, lets look at the some stats.
The market is pricing in a dominant Spanish performance with Spain coming out winners by at least two goals on average. In the past there have been some big wins in matches like this, but also a few shocks. Overall I found 211 similar looking matches in my database and of those 15 ended up as away wins or 7%. Scotland are priced at 20′s or around a 5% chance. 162 matches ended up as home wins equating to around 1.30 in digital odds. Spain are priced at 1.20, a little short. Spain should win but the stats hint that with such a strong Scottish incentive to win, the odds on a Spainish win are a little on the skinny side. The market has the overs and unders market spot on according to historic stats.
If you are looking for how such an unlikely win could occur here are a selection of matches where the unlikely did happen, study them for potential clues: -
Away – 2010 – Liverpool vs Blackpool – Result – 1-2
Away – 2010 – Arsenal vs Newcastle – Result – 0-1
Away – 2008 – Porto vs Leixoes – Result – 2-3
Away – 2009 – B Munich vs FC Koln – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – Barcelona vs Espanyol – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – AC Milan vs FC Zurich – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Man Utd vs Leeds – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Tottenham vs Wigan – Result – 0-1
In-running confusion
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 10th, 2011
From today new rules come into play for Jockeys and their use of the whip, new rules must also come into play for in-running punters. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
For example, if a jockey has ‘used up’ all his in-running whip chances before the last fence and is desperate to edge out a close rival. In theory, he will be unable to do anything and this may bring what was a previously short price out a fair bit depending on whether the jockey risks a ban or complies with the new guidelines.
I reckon we could see a period where some value is seen by laying short prices in the final stages of races. Of course, people will adjust to this new dynamic, but I’ll be keeping an eye on the things to see how things unfold given the change in rules. It should be an interesting week.
14 out of 14!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 8th, 2011
Black Caviar was out again at Caulfied this morning and made it 14 starts and 14 wins. Impressive stuff, as was the amount of money backing this undefeated horse. I slept on the sofa for the first part of the night so I could get up in the early hours to have a look at the race. Wouldn’t it be great to see a match up with Frankel? What a race that would be!
Internationals
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 7th, 2011
I had my own international experiance last night when I met up with Howard Hamilton from Soccermetrics. A dedicated group of stats experts huddled in a pub in Fulham to discuss all things football related. Could have done with a quieter pub!
With so many international matches going off at once, or at best close to each other, you may consider using a generic strategy that you can automate. All this can be done in practice mode as well, so you have no risk of losing money. Have a look at these videos for some ideas: -
Trading multiple markets in one football match
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/176-multiple-markets-football
Linking and trading multiple football matches
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/177-multiples-matches-football
Example overs/under football spreadsheet
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/210-overunders-ss
iCons
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 6th, 2011
As you may be aware now Steve Jobs passed away last night.
Whether you agree with everything that key figures have to say or what they do, or whether you feel they were lucky, or not. One thing you should do with people who have trodden a useful path before you, is to learn from them.
Throughout my life I have actively sought to try and work with, meet and learn from people better than me. It’s easy to find negatives on things, but learning from the positives is much more productive in the long term.
I’ve flown thousands of miles to meet these people, offered to work for free to learn from them and changed jobs when I was forced to work under people I didn’t respect. But learning from others was always top of my list. So, if you aspire to great things, surround yourself with the right environment and you will learn from that experience. Make sure you do that on your own terms though and not blindly.
Talking of which, here follows some inspiration from the late Mr Jobs himself: -
Mighty oaks from little acorns grow
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 5th, 2011
When my first daughter was born I planted an acorn. Since then it has grown to the proverbial Oak Tree. This year it is 14 years old and yielded its first crop of Acorns.
My point?
When I was in a ‘normal’ job I was always planting metaphoric acorns. My hope was that some would grow to Oaks, and so they did. So I suggest you always keep planting Acorns. Not just in the context of building for the long term future, but also in the short term context of looking for new ideas. Each day, week and month I am trying new things. Prodding and probing looking for any new information I can find. Interestingly, a lot of the time, I discover stuff completely by accident while looking for other things.
One of the reasons we have multi market tools and spreadsheet integration in Bet Angel is because this allows you to experiment and test many markets while you carry on doing something else. This is a really useful way to widen your capabilities and search for new opportunities. Once you come up with an idea you can test and expand it and see how far away from break even you are before you then start to think about ways to bridge the gap. You will immediately know when something has taken root and is likely to grow. From there it just needs a bit of tending.
I’ll aim to put an example of this up on the Academy site which you can view when we are ready to launch. To get an email for when the happens, sign up to the newsletter.
Keep planting those acorns!
Bet Angel for Betdaq
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 4th, 2011
Somebody emailed me yesterday asking when we will be upgrading the Betdaq version of Betdaq. For those that were not aware, we did this in July; hence this post this morning!
Bet Angel for Betdaq is available free of charge and we were the first vendors to release a Betdaq version of our product way back in 2008. The upgrade in July was the first major upgrade we have done in a while. There are still some differences between products, but both and very similar now and you get a similar range of features and capabilities.
I’m not going to recommend you use one exchange or the other, that’s your choice. But I often use both exchanges where it makes sense on one or the other, or when liquidty, market structure or availability of certain markets suits. BetDaq Angel is availble free, so why not download and use it today.
Download by clicking here: -
http://www.betangel.com/download/
I have put up a video to show you what it looks like here: -
http://www.betangel.tv/video/using-bet-angel/getting-started/151-betdaq
188ft headed goal
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 3rd, 2011
One of the things I like about football is it’s randomness. There are predictable elements to it, but goals occur over a wide average and are difficult to pinpoint precisly. This makes it good for certain types of strategies. If you want an example of the unpredictability of goals here is a classic: -
McClaren resigns
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 2nd, 2011
Further to my blog post on Saturday, Steve McClaren resigned from his post this evening: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/15145175.stm
You know what to look for!
Traders of the De l’arc
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 2nd, 2011
Once a year I will tuck into French racing like a connoisseur drinks French wine, with a sense of appreciation but with the gusto of a true enthusiast.
I don’t tend to trade on Sunday’s or on French racing, but the richest race in Europe always draws my attention as it and the companion races are nearly always a great opportunity. It has to be said that most of the other stuff on today is not the greatest quality. So I’m fixing up some new bikes I bought for the kids and paying for them, and then some, by trading in between sorting them out. Good luck if you are trading today. Early races have shown market conditions to be like the weather, surprisingly good.
Sack your manager now!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 1st, 2011
Early this week I was listening to the interview with Nottingham Forest manager Steve McClaren after watching his team get thumped 5-1. It was a depressing experience. Forest started the season at a good price for promotion but have since looked like a team trying to avoid relegation. McClaren seemed clueless to give a clear example of how he will turn their fortunes around. Should Forest sack him?
Another area of research I have done in the past is based around the new manager effect. I’ve researched not only what happens but why. Here is the what.
On the sample I looked at, sacking a manager generally lifted league positions on average by 1.17 places in a 20-24 field league. So there you go, sack your manager now! But more interesting was some of the detail in the averages.
If your club is right at the bottom or top of the league, then a sacking doesn’t seem to have as much effect as elsewhere on the league table. But the most predominant factor appeared to be the ‘popularity’ of the manager. If you sack a ‘popular’ manager, your form will decline no matter who you bring in. If you sack an ‘unpopular’ manager then your form improves whoever you bring in. Clubs that made a ‘popular’ appointment gained an average of six league places and those that didn’t fell on average. That inevitably lead me to ask why you see this effect, so I worked on this with a psychologist. But that’s another story.
Of course, that doesn’t directly answer the question of whether or not McClaren is popular or unpopular, but if it’s the latter and he is sacked start backing Forest.