Archive for December, 2011
Farewell 2011
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel, News on December 31st, 2011
No time to summarise the year on this post, hopefully I’ll get the chance in the new year. But just wanted to say goodbye 2011 and thanks for everybody’s support and custom through out the year. It turned out to be a really interesting year, right to the final days!
I managed to bag a four figure race yesterday and did well on the darts in the evening so it’s likely to be a nice sign off for the year.
Here’s looking ahead to what is going to be a fascinating 2012.
£1k account caused £600m Betfair error
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair on December 30th, 2011
Betfair have issued a statement this afternoon outlining the error that caused the exchange to misfire. The full statement is here: -
But here are some bullet points:-
“This bet was placed by one of our UK customers trading the race via our API or Application Programming Interface (bdp.betfair.com/) using an automated program (a “bot”). Their bot had developed a fault causing it to try and place a very large number of bets on the Exchange. These bets were large in size and mispriced…… However, due to a technical glitch within the core exchange database, one of the bets evaded the prevention system and was shown on the site. This was an issue that was triggered because of a unique sequence of events that had never happened before.” – “In this case, the customer had less than £1,000 in their account so none of these bets should have been accepted.”
“The Betfair technical teams continued to investigate the details of the fault and, having identified the issue, worked on putting a fix in place which was applied at 10.15pm on December 28th.”
“Following extensive testing, we can confirm that there have been no subsequent occurrences of this fault and we’ve taken steps to prevent its reoccurrence in the future.”
“Again, I would like to clarify that the account in question has no commercial relationship with Betfair other than being a customer. Our reputation has been built on integrity and we have been pioneers in the industry in ensuring that betting is carried out in a fair and transparent manner. By making the voiding decision, I can assure you that this decision was not taken lightly and that we have implemented what we believe to be the fairest solution in these truly exceptional circumstances.”
How to lay £600m worth of bets on Betfair?
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair on December 29th, 2011
That has to be the #1 question after yesterdays debacle in one of the feature races at Leopardstown.
To summarise, a mysterious lay bet appeared and stayed on the winning favourite at 29′s right up to the finish of the race. The ‘layer’ offered up £21m at 29′s creating a £600m liability. Betfair voided the in-running market.
Betfair have come out officially and ruled out that it was them or any account controlled by them or that they had a commercial interest in it. So it would appear it was just a common lay that created the error. But the question now shifts to who was this layer and how did they create the error? Nobody on the planet has £600m to gamble on a single runner in a race, so that points to some system quirk. There are checks in place that stop you exceeding your account balance or exposure limit, so what could jump over both those hurdles?
The amount of the Lay was curiously near the value of a 32bit binary number, slightly over if you add in additional stakes. The range of values of a 32bit binary is -2147483648 to +2147483647 which fits with the stake amount displayed on Betfair. You can create an error by forcing overflow or underflow with a calculation involving an integer, so it’s not impossible that this could be the source of the error. There is a good explanation on this link, curiously to do with customer balances: -
http://weblogs.asp.net/dvravikanth/archive/2008/03/10/integer-overflow-amp-underflow-revisited.aspx
I can’t comment authoritatively on the way that Betfair have coded their back-end, but lets just say that it’s not impossible that something like this could be the cause of the error. It could be that the exposure calculation is done using an integer and this layer just fluked it somehow. If it is something like this, then I am pretty sure an arms race is already underway to exploit it. The ability to force a voided market is potentially quite valuable, so Betfair should announce what the error is and what they are going to do to solve it, immediately. The person who placed the bets knows what created it, so that layer is hot property at the moment!
By quoting terms and conditions to void the market, people were quick to spot contradictory terms that stated that in the event of a bet exceeding agreed exposure all bets will stand, whoops! You can find the clause under section 9. Has Betfair has possibly opened themselves up to a legal issue?
I get the feeling this story is going to rumble on for a fair bit. But I sense we are nearer an explanation.
Leonhard Euler proved in 1772 that 2,147,483,647 was a prime number
Biggest ever loss on Betfair?
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair on December 28th, 2011
One of those remarkable events happened today on Betfair when, in the Christmas hurdle at Leopardstown, Voler La Vedette was offered up in-running for massive money at massive prices despite the fact it won.
Seemingly, over £21m was offered and held in-running to get filled at HUGE prices. £1,642,094 was matched at 29′s meaning the loser would have to pay out £44.8m on their bet at 29′s. In order to be able to just place the bet the user would have needed near on £600m in their account. Which is of course impossible, as all the users added up at Betfair don’t have those funds available.
Massive speculation abounds on what could have possibly caused, what looks like a catastrophic error. Was this a system error at Betfair, a bot error, or something unknown. Have Betfair just taking a massive bath due to an errant bit of code or did somebody else? How could such amounts be offered at such prices? It looks like a bug / system error to me, but early reported discussions with Betfair helpdesk indicate that it is not an error. I guess we will have to wait and see. Some people have reportedly made significant profits from the glitch, however it occurred. The market is still suspended and we await an outcome.
Read all about it in the forum
Looking for the luck of the Irish
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 28th, 2011
Their economy may been in the dumps, but then that’s no shock in the western world economies; but the racing is top notch this week at Leopardstown.
The holiday racing cards are packed with races which can cause some problems at times, but outside of that the feature races where-ever they are, are often worth a look.
Today at Leopardstown it’s the Lexus chase and then tomorrow, the Festival hurdle. If you are around, don’t rule out anything on the card in this busy period. But have a go at some of the features, even if they are not in the UK. They can work quite well. That said the Lexus chase today looks a little tricky.
Satisfying chaos
Posted by Peter Webb in Betdaq, Betfair, Horse Racing on December 27th, 2011
OK, yesterday didn’t seem that chaotic in the end, just a bit frustrating. I had to wait ages to find races that really set themselves up nicely, but eventually I did and they were OK. But it was a little dull overall.
Kauto Star lit up the day when I took a few races off to watch the King George VI produce a bit of history. What a great horse we have been treated to and it looks like we could be seeing an interesting Cheltenham gold cup now as well. Lets hope we get a big field and a competitive race.
Not my best result of the day, but a decent result came out of this market on Betdaq. I’ve been doing more work on Betdaq recently and will publish more information on the blog. Market conditions are improving all the time and I recommend using both exchanges where possible and for your own benefit and needs but also to increase competitiveness in the exchange market. If we have people fighting over our business maybe we can get a fairer deal. But obviously for me every £100 on Betdaq is worth the equivalent of £250 on Betfair, so it’s really worth me pushing hard for a result and sacrificing time on Betfair. As my activity is net accretive to the exchange I am also creating opportunities for others. As I get better at managing my risk I am probably creating some value for others. Today I had to exit a position that I made a mess off, I was still in profit but wanted to dump it and start again. I offered it many ticks higher on Betdaq than the best available price on Betfair. Any body active on both would have seen this and could get value from it or arbed it. The opportunity is there if you look, quite a few hundred quid as well!
This week looks pretty reasonble with the holiday cards increasing the scope and capacity of the racing. I reckon it should be a good week.
Full blown all out chaos
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing on December 26th, 2011
There you go, that’s my prediction for today’s racing markets.
A total of twelve racing cards are unleashed on the markets today and that means that it will be clash city. No sooner has one race started than another starts, while another one will complete. It’s going to be chaotic. There are a total of 78 races on the card, but 34 have scheduled off times the same as another race. As if that’s not enough you can throw in a bundle of decent soccer fixtures as well.
It’s a stark contrast to last year when there was no racing on at all and hardly any sport. But look at the upside, I finally managed to get a boxing day to enjoy for once! Sometimes though, the best opportunity occur at the most in-opportune moments.
I’ll be here today giving the markets a good bash and hopefully amid the choas I can pick out some quality opportunities. Good luck if you are giving it a go!
- With none of the white stuff due this year. It’s going to be busy!
Merry Christmas from the Bet Angel team
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel, News on December 24th, 2011
Signing off..
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel, News on December 23rd, 2011
Right, it’s time to do some last minute stuff for Christmas. A full house tomorrow means we have lots of food to prepare and I’m looking forward to doing anything but sports related stuff for a few days.
I had a reasonable day yesterday, which was a nice way to start the break for Christmas. I’ll be back at my desk on boxing day!
Shortest day of the year
Posted by Peter Webb in News on December 22nd, 2011
Today marks that critical point in the northern hemisphere where the sun rises above the horizon for the shortest time. From here it gets better and better, SAD sufferers can look forward to better times.
We still have a lot of winter to go and we haven’t plumbed it’s depths from a sporting perspective, but I welcome this turning point in the year as we can start looking forward to longer days. Aside from disruption to sporting schedules, of which we have had little this year, shorter days mess up my schedule something rotten.
In the summer I can practically get a full days work in before the any sports starts. In winter I have barely woken up before I need to get my brain into gear. One positive effect is I get more time down the Gym, but no sooner am I at the Gym than the footy starts. It also limits the type of events I can run in the office. No point in dragging people in from miles around only to give them a couple of hours of my time.
So today I celebrate, ahead of Christmas, with the knowledge that I can look to more fulfilling days ahead.
Image courtesy of Astronomy picture of the day http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap071222.html
120% Premium charge!
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair on December 21st, 2011
As premium charge payers know it’s PC day today. What a surprise then to see Betfair have double debited my account. So this week I paid 120% premium charge, ouch!
Obviously a mistake, but I suggest all premium charge payers check their account immediately and flag it to Betfair. It looks like everyboyd is affected. Nice timing Betfair!
[EDIT : About two hours later the duplicate charge was refunded. I imagine this is applicable to everybody, but please check, just in case]
What are the odds?
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair, News on December 21st, 2011
A bit of a laugh ahead of the Christmas break. Vote now!
Back when I joined Betfair, nearly 12 years ago now. They sent me a nice diary for my patronage. I didn’t generate much commission for them back then and didn’t write articles, design software for use on Betfair or anything like that. The following year I also received a small gift, and so it continued. Calendars, playing cards and the odd email with seasonal greetings.
About four or five years ago (I can’t remember exactly when) this stopped abruptly and since then, not even an email to wish me a Merry Christmas.
So this year, as I have done in all prior years, I rolled up my sleeve and sent all my key contacts a personal greeting card. I extended this gesture to the board of Betfair as well.
So the poll this week will be a seasonal… “How many Xmas cards will Peter get from Betfair?” – Vote now!
I’m putting this post up to give Betfair a fair chance to send me a card. I know you can afford it this year for sure and while I am grateful for the opportunity that Betfair presents to us all, I’m sure it’s not beyond your capacity to show some seasonal goodwill. I’ll update everybody on the result in the new year.
In meantime I’ll just read through this bulging sack of greetings from other companies and people.
P.S. A funny footnote to this post. I was searching for “mail man sack” and up popped a load of images of Blackburn manager Steve Kean. 
Back to open
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel, Betfair, Horse Racing on December 20th, 2011
It looks like we are going to have some fun and games in the market today. I’d recommend adopting a ‘back to open’ trading policy!
For more information read up on this thread: -
http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=4934&start=240
Winding down..
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair on December 19th, 2011
We are well on the run in now for the Xmas break now and this are going to get a little quiter as the week rolls on. Quieter apart from at home because the kids are off school now! Racing comes to a close on Thursday and there is no racing on the Friday or Saturday.
Plenty of decent racing on the Saturday just gone and it proved a good days trading. Best result of a good bunch came from the last race at Ascot. I did well on both exchanges on Saturday but couldn’t beat this total on Betdaq, but obviously could after commission!
Bits and bobs around this week but my enthusiasm for it isn’t high, so I’ll be working on new things and cherry picking some opportunities. I can’t see the markets being that favourable this week, but you never know.
If you are not active this week or busy Christmas shopping, why not use some of the new automation functions to trade automatically. Only a lack of imagination can separate you now from doing or learning something new about the markets, with this recent addition to Bet Angel. Set it up at the start of the day, in practice mode if necessary, come back and read your automatically exported P&L report at the end of the day. Tweak strategy, then repeat. Great fun.
Give your football 150% this weekend
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 17th, 2011
I love those throw away phrases where people say they are going to give it 150%. Of course you can only give it 100%, or can you? Not when trading.
In a betting market the market is framed at 100%. A football team can only win, lose or draw a match. There is a 100% chance of that happening. But when trading, you are trading how volatile those odds will be and that is always over 100%, whatever sport you trade. I cottoned onto this fact way back when I first started looking at stats and sport and quickly realised the significance when exchanges came along. But this fools a lot of people.
If you bet on a football match for example, over the long term the market is so efficient you will end up +/- nothing less commission (or other charges). But when you trade, depending on what you are doing, you are predicting an envelope of volatility. In football there are several match types that win whatever the underlying basic strategy, and these occur with quite regular frequency.
However, this ‘over 100%’ often fools people into thinking that they have stumbled across some great system. A lot of matches will end in profit simply because of this characteristic but, of course, you can only profit if you predict what is likely to happen than just because of this effect. It creates a high strike rate but that alone doesn’t create a profit.
So when you look at market when trading, you know you should, by default; look at giving it more than 100%!
Throwing it all away
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 15th, 2011
You have to feel sorry for Fulham. All they needed to do was match the result of Wisla Krakow, preferably win, to qualify. In the end it was the very last touch of the match that sent them out.
Two key mistakes cost them the match. The First OB goal was scored from a free kick and the taker of the kick very cleverly moved the ball an extra foot or two to the right of the wall. The Fulham team missed this and the player was able to curl the ball around the wall and beyond the reach of Fulham’s inexperienced goalkeeper. Very clever play by OB.
The next was definitely a mistake by Fulham. Instead of closing out the match in the dying moments they were still trying to score. More experienced professionals would have just run the clock down. OB got possession from a failed attempt on goal, broke up the pitch, sent in a good cross and with the last touch of the match, the ball was headed in the back of the net and Fulham were out of Europe. That worked out really well for me but I was furious at Fulham for such sloppy play. I can only imagine how the Fulham fans felt.
If anything last night was a good example of why you should always green up if you are given the chance! I’m looking forward to this evenings matches!
Four jockeys found guilty of corruption by BHA
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing on December 14th, 2011
Four jockeys are among 11 people to have been found guilty of corruption by the British Horseracing Authority.
Paul Doe and Greg Fairley face bans of up to 25 years after being found guilty of deliberately ‘stopping’ horses.
Kirsty Milczarek and Jimmy Quinn were found guilty of committing “corrupt or fraudulent” practices, while Milczarek was also found to have passed on information for reward.
Betfair profits up on flat growth
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair, News on December 14th, 2011
See the full press announcement here: -
At first glance revenue (comissions) have declined, but so has the cost of sales, producing an increase in the bottom line. Admin expenses have also fallen adding to the bottom line.
I’ll have a proper read of the full statement when I get into the office. Betfair shares are up a bit in early trading this morning.
If you want an update of content of the conference call, I’ll be tweeting updates: -
http://www.twitter.com/betangel/
Betfair results due out tomorrow
Posted by Peter Webb in Betfair, News on December 13th, 2011
If you can get up early tomorrow morning you will be able to see Betfair’s H1-12 results. The first since the introduction of the most recent premium charge announcement and various other factors. It will be interesting to see what impact all the news coming out of Hammersmith this year has had on the underlying business. It feels to me like growth has slowed, but that they will be able to boost the bottom line thanks to their very aggressive implementation of price increases.
But let’s not pre-judge things, I’ll be up early to see the news. I’m on the RNS service so I will get the results the instant they are announced and I’ll post them up for everybody. If you are interesting in tuning into the formal announcement webcast you can register on their investor relations web site: -
http://corporate.betfair.com/investor-relations.aspx
0-0 Continued…
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 12th, 2011
Well the two key matches I was looking at worked pretty well in the end but the other ‘deserved’ 0-0 at half time ended up 3-0 to the home team. This illustrates a key point.
With any in-play market you are hostage to what happens during the event. If you take a rigid approach to the underlying event you can’t really hope to out perform the statistics that can be modelled in the market.
In yesterdays match Joey O’Brian was booked in the 61st minute. Four minutes later he got his second booking and West Ham had another player booked as well. One minute later Reading scored and West Ham were well on the back foot. West Ham ended up having two players sent off and conceded more fouls than Reading. Basically, they lost it. You could only see that during that five minute spell in which it actually happened. If you had any positions open on the match, that five minutes spell should have forced you to radically re-asses your position.
Hopefully that’s shown you why keeping an eye on an event in-play will help you outperform those that don’t.
- Where it all started to go wrong for West Ham
0-0
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 10th, 2011
Just position taking at half time on this Saturday’s matches and there are a plethora of 0-0′s. 11 out of the 18 matches I am looking at are that score line as I speak.
Of course, underlying those matches are very different characteristics and odds. But I can tell you that each match if you look in real detail will reveal a significant difference between each 0-0. Some are heading for few goals and some should have loads.
The two stand out matches from the crop of 18 I am looking at are Liverpool vs QPR and Birmingham vs Doncaster. Both should not have reached half time with no score. On the flip side Reading vs West Ham is a “deserved” 0-0.
Right, now I’ve set up my positions I will be off doing some Christmas shopping. Had a good day at Cheltenham but the rest of the racing was pretty dire. Bet Angel is going to look after my positions while I am out shopping. Check out the automation feature so you can do the same!
Sometimes shots don't equal goals
Cross country mayhem
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing on December 9th, 2011
I don’t do much big in-running trading but whenever there is a XC race on I’ll pay extra attention.
Today at Cheltenham 7 of 10 runners took the wrong course (again) and radically changed the profile of the race in the dying moments. Whenever you see a cross country race on the card, always take an interest.
The winner came in at 150 after not looking in contention for most of the race. The key tactic, take the right course. Always have a preference for experienced jockeys in these races!
Incentive to score
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 6th, 2011
That one word is how I would describe the next two evenings worth champions league matches. Some teams will have a big incentive to score, others to not lose and others no incentive to do anything at all.
All the above will most likely throw up some of the best opportunities you will see in-play in this quality of match. It’s a bit like the knockout stage which returns in February. Early group stages can be tepid affairs but the next two sets of matches should set off some fireworks. I’ll be heading off to the Gym after today’s racing to squeeze in a couple of hours before returning to really get stuck into the football.
I’ll tend to do what I can before the game starts and then carry that over and then some into the in-play market. Once that trade is complete I’ll re-asses things at half time using information I’ve gathered in the first half to make some decisions.
Liquidity should be higher and opportunities abundant, so have a good look this over the next two nights. Check out incentive to score and what each team needs to do to progress. Double check team sheets as they come out and be prepared to go against the prevailing wisdom to catch some big potential. The rewards are so high for progression to the knockout stage, anything can and does happen.
This evening looks OK, but tomorrow night the setups are a little more intriguing; but there should be opportunity in both.
Big week ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Horse Racing, News on December 5th, 2011
You may read this headline and wonder what on earth I am on about as there isn’t anything amazing happening this week. OK a few high profile things like the Champions League football, but generally just bits and bobs as we descend headlong into the winter.
This time last year however, we were well in the grip of an incredibly cold spell and it pretty much wiped out all the sports action. So this year we are assured of a really good week. Well, at least in comparison to last year anyhow! That’s why I have a big week ahead.
Even this obscure reference to the weather reveals something about the way markets work. When we have a cold winter people anticipate another cold winter the following year. Judging by the number of snow shovels being sold at my local Tesco’s people are making the same mistake this year. Last year was a 30 year odd exception and just because it was bad last year doesn’t mean it will happen this year. Yes there is a demonstrable chance it will, but it is most likely that it wont.
In all markets I watch, there is a common propensity for people to look at the most recent history and start projecting that forward. This often results in demand overshooting in either direction. Identify this overshoot, have the mindset to swim against the crowd and its possible to profit from this behaviour. It’s work wonderfully well for me over the years.
Go short snow shovels!
Lay the draw – automatically
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 3rd, 2011
Last week we backed the draw using the new automation feature in Bet Angel, this week we lay it.
Whether you use the new feature to implement something or test an idea, it’s a powerful tool to do either. Based on immediate feedback we have expanded the number of conditions you can apply to your automation which expand your capability further. Bear in mind that using the practice mode you can play around without risking any money and by using the P&L export function in the automation, you can export your results to a file long after the market has closed. This will allow you to see how you did on the day when you return to your desk.
We plan to introduce even more elements to the automation, so please keep your version up to date with the very latest beta. Next release is on Monday.
Here is a video explaining how we laid the draw and greened out after a goal, using automation. I’ll export and post the automation file that did this on the forum.
http://www.betangel.tv/video/using-bet-angel/automation/220-automatically-lay-the-draw
Be careful laying the draw in certain Italian matches!
It’s jungle out there
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 2nd, 2011
Another week and another amazing betting system drops into my inbox.
Each one is similar to the last, as for only a few quid, limited to just a few people; you can have a system that requires little work yet prints money. Sounds fantastic, but as we all know it’s just not true. Why sell something for a fraction of the profit it allegedly generates? Just doesn’t make any sense.
In the past I have noticed that most of these systems are simply ebooks or manuals of one sort or another, but increasingly you are now seeing software being touted with these systems.
When you receive these new mailers it’s difficult to believe any of the claims. But furthermore, when you dig deeper, you often find the individuals involved have done their best to hide their identities. Doing a ‘who is’ on the domain reveals nothing. Asking, enquiring or trying to dig for a contact equally draws up a blank. So, my point….
There has been a lot of talk and incidences where betting accounts are being actively de-frauded. We were all alarmed to learn that Betfair will not refund in these cases as they are not taking counter party risk, yet. Therefore, could you realistically use software where you can’t see it has been approved by an exchange, has no track record and you can’t even find out who made it? Coupled with extravagant claims, it’s not really worth the risk is it?
I know most readers of the blog will not be in the group of people that could be suckered by these things, but if you know somebody that could be drawn in. Give them a gentle reminder and save a lot of possible heartache. At best we may move to a situation when everybody understands the risks involved and maybe get some formal involvement from the exchanges themselves.
Given the risks, he is probably a better bet.
Carling cup lessons
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 1st, 2011
Some interesting lessons from last nights Carling Cup.
First, the best bet of the night wasn’t on Man Utd or Crystal Palace but elsewhere, have a think about it. In the underlying match itself there was a in-play characteristic that really showed up Man Utd’s struggles. It made an outside bet on Palace a good option.
I have to thank an ‘expert’ for hihglighting this characteristic that I hadn’t looked at before. But rather bizarrely this academic was using it to prove almost the complete opposite of what I am using it for. I found it by reading some of the more academic blogs out there. I often find this interesting as they are trying to answer the why of the more subtle aspects of football.
The problem you have with information is that you often find a problem with the way people approach things, especially academics. They tend to lack subjective thought. It’s easy to slip into the mode of looking for justification of something, rather than taking a step back and understanding what actually creates a characteristic. I.e. you seek to justify your findings rather than getting feedback on them. This often leads you down a blind alley which is what happened on the blog post I read.
I took one look at it and thought, ‘That’s interesting, but doesn’t seem right’. So I rolled up my sleeves and went to replicate his findings only to find out there was additional information contained in them that he had missed. This was only because he was seeking to illustrate and prove a point. In doing so he missed the a different point, in fact I’d say he got the whole thing wrong but I haven’t done enough to confidently say that just yet.
I have to say I’m not keen on these types of cup matches but did well this week from both of them by taking positions that were fairly likely to pay off or offer limited downside. Despite the mixed up lack of quality it proved entertaining. The Europa league is turning into the Carling cup of Europe by the look of it. So I’m a bit mixed on that this year, but will be hacking away at it again tonight.
