Horse racing markets are popular with traders because of the large amounts of volatility, but trading football on betting exchanges hasn’t traditionally been seen as a place to get large risk free swings in odds. Things appear to be changing however.
I have recently been conducting some re-reseach on pre-off movements on football. I do this sort of thing on all sports, revisiting previous research. But on conducting the research this time around I noticed a change. The football pre-off markets have been getting more progressively more volatile.
This is interesting because it means the potential for loss is higher than it was in the past. But on the half full flip side, this also mean there is more potential profit if you are correct. But the big thing for me is that it also means the potential for value is increasing. I can price a football market very accurately but so it appears can many others. However if I can ask for a price that is definately in value territory I’ve got a much better chance of making it pay.
But, for me, there enters another problem, because of the premium charge I am unable to value bet on Betfair so I’ll have to do all my work on Betdaq. But those prices are almost 100% correlated, so that shouldn’t be a problem, just the amount I can get matched. It’s an interesting observation though and demonstrates just how rampant speculation is on pre-off football markets now.