OK, Barca are 1.28 to beat Chelsea. Barca are 1.49 to qualify.
Here is something for you to experiment with. Try looking at related markets using Bet Angel and linking it to a spreadsheet. By doing this you can easily set up a spreadsheet to work out all the derivatives this evening. For example, Chelsea would qualify it was 0-0 or say certain combinations of the correct score market came in, say they scored an away goal. Add up all the combinations on the correct score market via the spreadsheet and match that to the qualify market. You will see a differential. With that differential you can now do ‘technical’ arbitrage in the market. Hedging as little or as much as you like depending on the expected results and underlying markets. The differential exists because there are so many ways to qualify versus the actual score after 90 minutes. It’s a neat way to expose yourself to potential profit, on your terms, on markets that actually don’t exist. Hence the word ‘technical’ arbitrage. There are lots of differentials in the markets that expose ‘unseen’ strategies. Even if you can’t set it up tonight, get moving on it now ready for Euro 2012.
Right, on to the match.
All matches are slightly different but it’s often useful going back and looking at historical data to get a feel for how matches could play out. We looked at our historical database of matches and found 235 matches that looked very similar.
The market is discounting a 78.7% chance of a Barcelona win, a 7.7% chance of a Chelsea win and a 13.9% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 76.2% chance of a home win, a 6.8% chance of a away win and a 17% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 1.31 14.71 & 5.88 respectively. If you feel that historic data is a good guide to this match, then this suggests that the draw is too long, overpriced and therefore you should back it.
The market is forecasting 3.23 goals. Historically there have been 3.18 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.62. Historically 57% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into digital odds of 1.75. This is hinting at lay value in this market.
The home team has scored at least one goal in 92.3% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 49.4% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 68.1% of occasions and three or more goals on 14% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 14% of occasions and three or more goals on 5.5% of occasions.
Hope that is useful for you!
Of course I would love to see an English team in the final, but Chelsea have their work cut out for them in Spain tonight.