Well that was an interesting match wasn’t it? I went from thinking ‘I’d hate to be a Man City fan right now’ to ‘I’d love to be a Man City right now’, all in the space of a few minutes. You go all season without losing at home then almost blow it on what should have been one of the easiest matches of the lot. It was like Barcelona vs Chelsea but in reverse.
In total the match odds market reached £8.34m, £2.5m before the off.
Before the match, the market was predicting a 3-1 or 3-0 scoreline, so it got it roughly right.
To be fair, a number of people correctly suspected that nerves could cause a few problems, so I hope people were able to profit from that premise. The standout stat from the whole match for me was the astonishing number of shots Man City had without scoring and the astonishing numbers of goals QPR had with so few shots! Don’t you just love football.
The interesting thing from a trading perspective, is if you look at the odds it was impossible to not profit from this match if you followed any of the basic strategies. If you backed or laid Man City, QPR or the draw you would have had opportunties to trade out for a profit. Under 2.5 came in nicely till half time, then ended up overs late on. There were lots of opportunities in this match.
QPR reached a low of 1.34 and could have been backed at 24′s at the off, City started at 1.15 before reaching a high of 55. The draw could have been laid at 1.30 or backed in the late teens. If you succesfully laid each of the match odds selections at their lowest point you would have returned 238% of your stake, plenty of room for error!
For a bit of fun I thought I would work out the potential it you somehow had the foresight to back and lay perfectly on match odds during the match and green out at that point. I also compounded the stake for maximum reward (and risk). With a £100 bet on Man City to start and backing or laying appropiately from there, you would have returned £1816.39 or 18 times your intial stake. Unrealistic, but it shows you just what sort of potential these matches can through up. We love uncertain high scoring matches!
So congratulations to Man City and now we look forward to the play offs and the champions league final.