That was an interesting night.
For some reason the polish officials thought that with a large weather front moving over Poland full of rain, it was a good idea to let the pitch get completely waterlogged by not closing the roof. Echos of June & Euro 2012, though that was a bit further to the east. Any how, onto what did take place….
It was good to see Portugal engaging in austerity, unfortunately for their fans it was in front of goal! Portugal, as highlighted in a previous post, did their best to completely frustrate their long suffering fans again as Ireland took every opportunity to overturn odds of less than 1.10 at the off. I had hoped to work some money into the market before the off but nobody was taking my offers by laying at short odds. Bad move!
France ensured 1.01 was beaten in their match in Spain, where a 94th minute goal ensured a draw with Spain.
But the most remarkable match came in Germany where the six goal winners against Northern Ireland threw away a four goal lead on 60 mins to snatch a draw from almost certainly victory. I can tell you that doesn’t happen very often at all, especially against a home side starting at short odds.
Betting exchanges only prices matches to a maximum of 1000 to lose, or 0.10% to win in implied chance terms so I thought I would run some maths against last nights match to see what odds could have been offered in an unlimited market. So I ran my model and can see that at 4-0 up on 60 minutes my model reckons the draw would have happened once in 5276 matches. At the start of the match I would have priced the chance of a 4-4 in the realms of around 1250/1.
I’ve seen a few remarkable turnarounds in my time but few involving four goals. However, you only need to go back to April this year for the same result in almost equally improbably circumstances. Wolves were away from home and 3-1 down after 15 minutes then 4-1 down after 31 mins but still managed to snatch a draw.
Not sure I’ve seen a team turnaround four goals in the last half an hour though, a remarkable result!
Category: Football / Soccer