Aussie Open serves up another classic tennis match

21/01/2013 | By | 1 Reply More

Anybody trading on Sunday was treated to another classic Tennis match in Melbourne.

Stanislas Wawrinka shocked world number one Novak Djokovic by racing to a 6-1 first set lead. Djokovic was clearly in trouble and needed to stage a big fight back or hope that Wawrinka faded.

Being the champion that Djokovic is, he dug deep and started the fight back. This match exhibited perfect trading characteristics again.  It was another match, where if you were trading, you couldn’t lose. If you backed the outsider his price shortened considerably.  If you backed the favourite he won!

I initially backed Wawrinka expecting him to put up a bit of a fight, I got more than I bargained for.  Then I shifted some of the profit from  Wawrinka to Djokovic.   This meant that by the end of the second set I had already returned eight times my initial stake.  That seemed a fair return, so I yielded to my children and went and played in the snow.  To my complete surprise, when I returned the match was still going on; so I could have done even better.  But life isn’t just about making some money, is it?

Each match I do a post-match analysis.  This helps me understand were the best opportunities were and whether I can take that knowledge into another match. I’ve included the graphic from Wawrinka. You can see two ‘bumps’ in the graphic which indicate the best places to have backed and laid Wawrinka in this match.  These graphs often ma interesting

Let’s hope we see a few more matches like this one, that would be amazing!

130121 - Djokovic vs Wawrinka

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Category: Tennis, Trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

Comments (1)

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  1. Peter Webb says:

    First off, thanks for the attention that this post has generated. I never thought such an obvious statement and a bit throw away comment would garner such attention.

    I have asked a number of people to reply to this post so that I can put some context next to the actual post itself, but nobody has taken me up on this offer. For people who directly objected to the comments, I made the kind offer to talk to personally; but my offer was refused. It’s shame, as I wanted to engage positively but it seems the opposite is not the case.

    I had considered editing my original post but then I imagined what fun and games people would have if I did that. So I have decided to issue some clarifying context by talking to myself!

    First off, yes of course you can lose money trading, I’ve never denied that and would never try and position trading as a thing where you couldn’t possibly lose, that’s just silly. If you take the wrong position at the wrong time and compounded your losses then you will lose.

    I have no doubt that some people did lose on this match, maybe that was what caused the angst and unexpected response. TBH I don’t expect on every post to highlight where the losing opportunties were, they can be easy to find. But what most people request from me, is opportunties that create PROFIT. Which is why I highlight them as I have done on this post. In future though I will ensure I insert some caveats to pacify those that feel highlighting just the opportunity was wrong.

    The point I was trying to make in the above post was that if you backed or laid either player at the off, you would have had the opportunity to trade out at a profit several times during the match. If you would have decided to trade out for a loss then, of course, your would have made a loss. I was merely trying to explain a sinmple strategy that would have worked in this market that people overlook. Something that was simple to understand and thought provoking.

    If you look at the graph and listen to my comments then you should be able to understand where I was coming from.

    With each Tennis match I analyse, I am carefully looking at where the key opportunties are, why? Because if know I limit my losses, I more interested in where I can maximise the upside opportunties. It’s that simple.

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