It’s all kicked off – Saturday soccer stats

16/08/2014 | By | Reply More

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PREVIEW: Man Utd v Swansea (Sat, 12:45)

The Premier League kicks off with two teams facing several question marks after their performances last season.

Man Utd imploded last season as David Moyes presided over a disastrous campaign that saw them plummet from champins to seventh. Swansea, meanwhile, 
went backwards after an excellent 2012/13 season and start this term with a weakened side following the departures of Michu, Vorm, Davies and Chico Flores – all of who were first team regulars when fit. Add to that a rookie manager in Garry Monk and it’s easy to see the Welsh side struggling this term.

Man Utd have enjoyed a successful pre-season under Louis van Gaal but they come into this opening game with several injuries, including to Luke Shaw, Jonny Evans and Robin van Persie. To be serious title contenders they will surely need to make some more signings this month, but given Van Persie hasn’t been involved in pre-season they should be able to cope here. Furthermore, they’ve not lost a Premier League home game in August since 1992.


The last two seasons have seen United win 17 of 20 home games against bottom-half finishers with 13 wins by at least two clear goals and 13 after leading at half-time, as even last term they’ve proven very good at beating the league’s minnows.


Swansea have lost five of their six meetings with United in the past three seasons and they’ve enjoyed a far less successful pres-season with defeats against Villarreal and Bournemouth in their last three games. Defensively Swansea were vulnerable last season and they failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 16 awway games. It’s not surprising therefore that they picked up just one point from their trips to the top eight finishers.


They do, however, look like they pose a threat going forward with Wilfried Bony scoring regularly on the road in 2014 and the likes of Gomis and Sigurdsson added to the team. Furthermore, nine of their 14 matches under Monk have had at least three goals including five of the seven away games.


Since 2008/09 top-six finishers have won 40 of their 49 games in their opening home three games when playing teams that went on to finish in the bottom half (and that is where we think these two sides will finish). 61% of these games had at least three goals while 45% had four or more strikes 
which makes the 3.0 for Over 3.5 Goals look excellent value while the Man Utd to win with Over 2.5 Goals or with both teams scoring are also tempting options..

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Category: Football trading strategies

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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