Saturday Soccer Stats
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Milan and Juventus head into week three occupying the top two spots in the table but they’ve won their matches in highly contrasting fashions. Milan followed an opening 3-1 win over Lazio by beating Parma 5-4 last time out. Juventus, meanwhile, are yet to concede after relatively straightforward wins over Chievo and Udinese. Both have new managers in place but while former Milan boss Allegri will have plenty of experience of these occasions Pippo Inzaghi is in his first senior coaching role.
Milan are on a six game winning streak at home but four of their final five home games last season were against teams that finished in the bottom five. Defensively they have been all over the place in their first two games and we are far from convinced they will be challenging for the title this season. Last season they lost four of their home games against the top six finishers (W1-D1-L4) including three defeats by more than one goal and they also lost five of the six away matches against these teams. Their captain, Riccardo Montolivo, is yet to feature this season and he’s a big miss as they’ve conceded 22 goals in the 13 matches he’s not started (and completed at least an hour) in since the start of last season.
Juventus are missing Andrea Pirlo but they’ve won 10 of the 11 games he’s failed to start since the beginning of last season. While they have not scored as regularly without him having a more mobile player in midfield has significantly improved their defence in these games as they’ve kept eight clean sheets and eight of the matches have had fewer than three goals. Furthermore, Juventus have conceded just once in their last nine matches – all of which they’ve won – and they’ve won seven of their last eight away games. Juve won four and lost two of their seven trips to the top eight last season and they’ve won 33 of their last 40 away games when they’ve scored whilst losing only twice.
At this early stage of the season it is best to keep stakes low but Juve should be able to expose Milan’s defence – a task that looks far harder for the home team
Even at this early stage this feels like an extremely important match in Man City’s season as Chelsea could open up an eight-point gap if they take all three points. City have been the most dependable home team in the league for the last three seasons – they’ve won 85% of their games at the Etihad since 2011/12 – but having had the harder midweek Champions League fixture and with Jose Mourinho’s success of getting good results when he needs them – Chelsea went W7-D2-L1 against the other top-six finishers last season including winning their final six when Mourinho would have had more confidence in his best side – this looks a tough task for the Citizens.
Mourinho knows that a draw puts them in pole position for the title. The Blues are already as short as 1.83 to lift the trophy come May and that price will shorten if they get a point here. These games are rarely classics – none of their last eight meetings have had more than three goals – and it’s striking that Under 2.5 Goals is odds-against here. The main reason why it’s so long (2.12) is that 15 of City’s 21 home matches since the start of last season have featured at least three strikes. But this isn’t a normal game. It’s the biggest game of the season between two sides that make up 77% of the 2014/15 Premier League winner’s market on Betfair.
Man City have won seven of their 12 home matches against fellow top-four finishers since 2010/11 but just five of the games have had Over 2.5 Goals. Chelsea have never finished outside the top-three under Mourinho and in their 13 away matches against top-four finishers during his two spells in charge they’ve lost just twice. He began his first reign with three of his first four such matches having Over 2.5 Goals but since then all nine have ended with fewer than three goals. Under 2.5 Goals at 2.12 is the stand-out selection in this crucial Super Sunday clash.
Please note we’d advise keeping stakes low in the early weeks of a campaign due to the unpredictable nature of this stage of the season.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
Joey Barton, Midfielder, QPR
Joey Barton is a doubt for QPR this weekend. He has played 32 Premier League games for QPR since the 2011/12 season and the start of this campaign. Out of the 32 games he has played, QPR’s PPG has been 1.16. However without him QPR have managed only one point from 10 games and 80% of those games have been L/L at HT/FT. A Stoke win is priced at 2.88.
Lens v Saint-Etienne
Loic Perrin, Midfielder, Saint-Etienne
Defensive midfielder Perrin has missed just seven games since the start of last season and while Saint-Etienne have lost only 10 times in total five of those defeats have come when he’s been missing. They’ve conceded just 0.72 goals per game with him but 2.00 without as five of the seven matches have had +2.5 goals. Lens can be backed at 4.0 to cause a surprise.
Atalanta v Fiorentina
Borja Valero, Midfielder, Fiorentina
Valero is a doubt after coming off in Europe in midweek and in the seven games he missed last season Fiorentina – who finished fourth – lost four times and failed to score on three occasions.Atalanta are unbeaten after two games and are a tempting 3.5 to add a further three points.
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