Saturday Soccer Stats
Saturday Soccer stats is back and more will follow this season as we have been busy at work during the off season. Ratings will follow later. We are just slightly behind where we need to be at the moment on some new stuff. But it’s probably not a problem as you are no doubt getting drowned in other stuff today! We have done some excellent work in the off season. Tomorrow on the blog, something really interesting for you; today, some previews and stats: –
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Premier League 2015-16
In anticipation of the start of the season we’ve compiled a mammoth 125 page betting guide featuring our Outright Preview, lots of data tables and team-by-team guides analysing each sides Strengths, Weaknesses, Expectations, Transfers, Key Personnel and highlighting some betting markets to look out for in the season ahead.
You can read the Crystal Palace review on www.footballformlabs.com and to access the full document you can find it in either the Daily Reports or Strategies section of Form Labs.
And if you are not currently a subscriber you can sign up now and take advantage of our current great rates, with 33% off if you sign up during August. You can sign up by going to www.footballformlabs.com and there are further details on the promotion further down.
PREMIER LEAGUE WEEK 1
Man Utd v Spurs, Sat 12:45
Man Utd got off to the worst possible start under Louis van Gaal last season as their 100% run in pre-season was swiftly forgotten once the real action got under way. A home defeat to Swansea on the opening day was followed by draws at Sunderland and Burnley and then capitulating from 2-0 at Leicester to lose 5-3 after the brief high of thrashing QPR. This summer has seen another rebuilding job at Old Trafford but moving Daley Blind to centre-back hardly looks to have solved the weakness in that area and while the midfield looks more robust it hardly suggests a change from Van Gaal’s rather slow and negative tactics of last term. Memphis Depay has been the major addition in attack and United must hope he hits the ground running with few options on the bench.
United won this fixture 3-0 last season in one of their best performances under Van Gaal but prior to that they’d gone five games without a win against Spurs, including consecutive defeats here. A price of 1.65 looks far too short therefore, and while they won five of nine home games against the top half last term, over the past two seasons their home record against these teams is just W7-D4-L7 with only three wins by more than one goal. In their favour, though, is Spurs’ record at top-six finishers in the past couple of seasons, as they’ve picked up just two points from 10 games whilst conceding 29 times.
Spurs have had an underwhelming summer transfer window with more departures than arrivals and now look heavily reliant on Harry Kane replicating his 2014-15 form. Defensively they were very unreliable last season but improved towards the end of the campaign and the signing of Toby Alderweireld looks to have strengthened that area. 15 of their 19 away games last term had Over 2.5 Goals but few went on to be goal-fests as 10 had exactly three strikes and six of their nine trips to top-half teams finished with 2-3 goals. We expect Pochettino to make Spurs better at the back having had a full summer to prepare and make the signings he wants – he also knows a bit about defending having been one – and that pushes the value towards Under 2.5 Goals, as actually happened in three of both teams’ final four matches last term, while their first meeting last season was a far from eventful 0-0.
PREVIEW: Leeds v Burnley, Sat 12:30
Following a number of off-field distractions centred around the ownership of Massimo Cellino last season, Leeds seem to have a bit more stability ahead of this season and will hope that new manager Uwe Rosler can fare better than some of his predecessors, with the German the fourth manager Cellino has appointed since taking over the club in April 2014. Rosler goes straight into the cauldron with his opening game a Roses clash with relegated Burnley. While Leeds have strengthened their squad by bringing in seven players already, for Burnley the question was always whether they’d be able to keep hold of the players that impressed in the Premier League last season. Unfortunately for Clarets’ fans, Kieran Trippier, Jason Shackell, and most significantly Danny Ings have all left the club as they look to bounce straight back up to the Premier League. However, history proves that their task will not be a simple one as only West Ham, QPR, and Norwich of the last 15 sides to be relegated from the Premier League have managed to gain promotion straight away.
Part of the reason for Leeds achieving back-to-back 15th placed finishes in the Championship has been their poor home form. They managed only eight wins in 23 home games last season, with three of these coming in their opening four home matches. Surprisingly a number of these wins were against top sides, as they beat last season’s fourth-placed team Middlesbrough in their opening home game, as well as Derby who were leading the division at the time, eventual league winners Bournemouth, and sixth-placed Ipswich. Leeds hadn’t had the best of pre-seasons until they beat Everton at home in their final game ahead of the opening day but after that moale boosting win they will be confident of improving a strong record at Elland Road against Burnley. Though Burnley gave Lancashire bragging rights by doing the double over Leeds in 2013/14, prior to that Leeds had won their last five home matches against the Clarets.
In their last season in the Championship Burnley only lost three of their 23 away games, though they did draw nine on the road, but they will surely find it harder this time around. In the past five seasons there have been 172 Championship matches where relegated teams have travelled to middle-third finishers (Leeds are 12th favourites for the league) and those teams have won 30% while losing 37%. Narrowing that sample to just the first five away games of the season and the away relegated sides have had a record of W9-D17-L15.
Burnley were the lowest scorers in the Premier League last season, and the loss of Ings will not help as they search for more goals back in the Championship. Middlesbrough’s Jelle Vossen and youngsters Chris Long and Dan Agyei are all strikers that have been brought in to try and add some more goals to this Burnley side that weren’t exactly prolific in their last spell in the Championship.
Since 2003/04 18 relegated teams have played away on the opening day and their record is just W4-D4-L10. Leeds have won their opening home game in the last three seasons and Uwe Rosler has a fully fit squad to choose from, while Burnley have a couple of injury concerns with central midfielders Dean Marney and Fredrik Ulvestad both out and new right back Matthew Lowton a doubt. With Leeds’s ability to beat top sides at home and the tendency of relegated sides to struggle in their opening games in the Championship, Leeds +0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.15 looks a solid bet.
Category: Football trading strategies
