Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

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The flat is back

The flat is back

While playing Football World Cup in the desert may not be a great ideal, running the world’s richest race is!

This weekend we have two key events in the racing calendar , the highest profile being the Dubai World Cup in Meydan. Here is another sports event I will make the effort to attend some day. For the moment, I’m still sat behind my monitor taking an active interest in it from the other side. The racecourse was designed to be spectacular and

27/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Bet Angel now includes live Tennis scores

Bet Angel now includes live Tennis scores

We are delighted to announce Bet Angel professional version 1.39 has been released. This is a major upgrade from version 1.38. Key new features: -

  • Live tennis scores via Betfair.com now exposed via Bet Angel
  • Bet or Trade automatically based on underlying scores in a match
  • Improvements to the search feature
  • Improvements to Tennis trader

The new version of Bet Angel is available for immediate download. You can download and install from: -

 http://www.betangel.com/download/?product=BetAngelPro

If you are an existing Bet Angel

23/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Sunday Soccer Stats

Sunday Soccer Stats

PREVIEW: Liverpool v Man Utd (Sun, 13:30)
With Chelsea six points clear and with a game in hand, the top-four race looks set to be a much closer finish than that for the title. Since Liverpool and Man United are currently fighting each other for fourth place, this game, which is arguably the biggest rivalry in English football, could be pivotal in determining who will be playing Champions League football next season. A win for Liverpool here would put them …
22/03/2015 | By | Reply More
WBX – World betting exchange – Closes

WBX – World betting exchange – Closes

I doubt many people noticed but on Monday WBX shut it doors to new business. They haven’t gone bust so all outstanding bets will be settled and the operations will continue until all business has been sorted out but citing a number of issues they have decided that enough is enough. You can read the notice on their site: -

http://www.wbx.com/notice/scNotice.html

I noticed there is no chatter on any forums about it, I guess a few posts may appear after I post

18/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Could the General election change racing forever?

Could the General election change racing forever?

A fair few years ago I started visiting the houses of parliament.

I wasn’t looking to be an MP I just wanted to follow the passage of the new Gambling Bill through parliament and the committee stage. I learnt a lot about politics, lobbying, MP’s, party whips and the legislative process. The biggest thing I learnt was it was largely a pointless exercise. All the discussion, cross checking and diligence went out the window when the bill was guillotined thanks

18/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Sunday Soccer Stats

Sunday Soccer Stats

PREVIEW: Chelsea v Southampton (Sun, 13:30)

Chelsea come into this game on the back of a thoroughly disappointing result and performance against PSG in midweek, while Southampton’s schedule has been much easier without the rigours of European football or domestic cup ties. They beat Crystal Palace last weekend in what was a much needed win after defeats against West Brom and Liverpool. Chelsea will be looking to maintain their comfortable position at the top of the league, while Southampton will

15/03/2015 | By | Reply More
A quick summary of Cheltenham

A quick summary of Cheltenham

Well it’s a relief that the first big week of the year is over, but also a bit of disappointment. Today was the misery I expected and the adjustment back to run of the mill action is underway. But big meetings don’t come around that often, so love them or hate them there are not that many. 

The meeting had a lot of volume, but don’t confuse volume with liquidity they are two different things. I need to do a video

14/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Has Manuel Pellegrini got Manchester City’s Tactics Right?

Has Manuel Pellegrini got Manchester City’s Tactics Right?

I’ve reproduce this article courtesy of Football Form Labs. It’s a nice piece.
Following Gary Neville’s recent piece in The Telegraph on Manchester City’s tactics in ‘big games’,we’ve done some statistical analysis in relation to Neville’s claims. Neville suggests that in big games if Yaya Toure plays with a central midfield partner, then Nasri and Silva can’t both play, nor can City play with two strikers. Similarly if City opt to play Silva and Nasri, then Neville argues that
14/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Cheltenham update

Cheltenham update

A quick update on how the week is going so far. Today, Thursday, is trading well so far.

 

12/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Trading Cheltenham

Trading Cheltenham

This year I’ve decided to upload a video to narrate some of the stats and detail behind how Cheltenham trades. It seems much easier to express and emphasise points and show a number of things on a video that you can’t do in text. So I’ve created the longest video yet and uploaded it for you!

For those of you that want the text I’ve prepared a long document for you here. It should be of interest one way or

07/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats – Do refs affect goals?

Saturday Soccer Stats – Do refs affect goals?

PREVIEW: QPR v Spurs (Sat, 15:00)
With the Premier League taking a back seat to the FA Cup this weekend there is an opportunity for Spurs to move back into the top six and close the gap on fourth placed Man Utd to just three points.

With QPR having lost six of their last seven matches things are looking bad for the promoted side, especially as they only have two remaining home games against current bottom-half teams and those are
07/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Betfair results send share price rocketing

Betfair results send share price rocketing

Betfair announced a glowing set of results this morning: -

http://corporate.betfair.com/media/press-releases/2015/05-03-2015.aspx

Since Breon Corcoran came to power we have seen a shift from the exchange very much to the sportsbook on Betfair and it seems to be working, for them. I haven’t seen any advertising for the exchange for probably two years now. The rationale for this is that it’s easier to get customers onto the sportbook. Number of active customers are up 35% to 760,000, so that is true!

05/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Cheltenham Beckons….

Cheltenham Beckons….

OK, we are almost there now. We are just a stones throw from Cheltenham and I’m deep into research how previous years traded, all the stats, videos, charts and anything that can refresh my mind on previous years.

I’ve produced this video for you to give you my initial thoughts ahead of the Festival. Another video will follow with more detailed analysis.

 

04/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Nailed on Lay Bet

Nailed on Lay Bet

I jest slightly, but there is probably a deeper message here. Rather than tip tap away for 1/2 hour to bring you this rather startling comment from a trader I thought I would do a video about it, Enjoy!

03/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Automated trading on Betfair – Profiting from a steamer

Automated trading on Betfair – Profiting from a steamer

When a horse starts getting backed, people will often pile into the gamble and the price will steam in. You can benefit from this, using Bet Angel’s automation tools…

One of the best trades to pick up on in a horse racing market is a jolly good ‘steamer’. That is horse racing parlance for a horse who keeps on getting backed and backed, the opposite to a ‘drifter’. There can be any number of reasons for this to happen …

22/02/2015 | By | 1 Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments

PREVIEW: Sampdoria v Genoa (Sat, 19:45)

It’s another weekend with few high profile clashes across Europe but one game that is sure to be full of passion is the Derby della Lanterna in Genoa. Things have calmed down a bit recently between these sides, with just two red cards in the last seven …

21/02/2015 | By | Reply More
The low point

The low point

So here we are in mid February, in the depths of winter.

Australian Open tennis has just finished, Cheltenham isn’t too far away but for now the immediate outlook is a little weak for me. We have the champions league, but that’s only two matches on a Tuesday and Wednesday. Europa league looks a bit more interesting, though less volume. There is World cup cricket, but in a different time zone. So there are opportunities around but in general things are a …

19/02/2015 | By | Reply More
Luck of the draw

Luck of the draw

The FA Cup fifth round is upon us and unlike previous years the competition has been very interesting so far.

A raft of premiership clubs have already been dumped out of the competition and that’s changed the shape a bit. In the fifth round this year the premier league clubs account for 96% of the market. This is lower than previous years which have been 98.76%, 98.36% and 99.30%.

So for the first time in a few years that percentage

14/02/2015 | By | Reply More
Why Tiger isn’t roaring anymore

Why Tiger isn’t roaring anymore

You must have noticed the news this morning that Tiger Woods is taking an indefinite break from Golf to rebuild his game. He had better hurry as he is now 39 and as in other sports age is an important factor in Golf.

Typically you have to look at a sport along two lines to determine where a player is in there career. One is age, as this is defining characteristic of strength and agility. The other experience, this tells you how to conduct …

12/02/2015 | By | Reply More
Saturday soccer stats – Local derby special

Saturday soccer stats – Local derby special

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments

PREVIEW: Tottenham v Arsenal (Sat, 12:45)

The North London Derby kicks off the Premier League weekend and both sides come into this game on the back of impressive results. Arsenal thumped Villa 5-0 at the Emirates while Spurs won convincingly away against a rejuvenated West Brom following the appointment of Tony Pulis. After Southampton’s

07/02/2015 | By | Reply More
Testing times? Profit from them

Testing times? Profit from them

Trading on Formula One racing may seem unusual and starting to trade even before the season has even started even more unusual, but it can often present some really good opportunities.

At the start of each year after a winter break, I watch preparations for the new Formula 1 season with interest. The various teams are testing new cars and configurations and it generally leads to a mixed bunch of results. But typically that’s what testing is all about. It’s at …

06/02/2015 | By | Reply More
Profit graphs – Visualising data on Bet Angel

Profit graphs – Visualising data on Bet Angel

One ‘trick’ I use with Bet Angel uses two ‘hidden’ features. It has help me improve my trading no end, especially on unfamiliar sports.

The two features I use are the Excel link and the automation. They both work in the background for me while I trade, or even on another machine to collect data on a market I may or may not be trading.

What they are doing is pulling in data from the market I am trading which …

01/02/2015 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments

PREVIEW: Chelsea v Man City (Sat, 17:30)

This week’s Saturday Night Football sees reigning champions Man City travel to league leaders Chelsea. Following their shock 4-2 defeat at home to Bradford in  the FA Cup, Chelsea needed extra-time to see off Liverpool in the League Cup in midweek, but the talking-point from that game has …

31/01/2015 | By | Reply More
Major upgrade for BETDAQangel

Major upgrade for BETDAQangel

We are pleased to announce a new version of Bet Angel for Betdaq.

Bet Angel for Betdaq is completely free of charge, so there is no reason why you shouldn’t download and try a copy. If you don’t have a Betdaq account we can set one up for you when you install the software.

This is a major upgrade and brings with it many features that people have previously requested and brings Betdaq up in line with features that

30/01/2015 | By | Reply More
Bet Angel version 1.38

Bet Angel version 1.38

We are pleased to release version 1.38 of Bet Angel Professional for Betfair. It contains a significant enhancement to Advanced Automation and also fulfills a couple of common customer requests.

You can download the latest version from  - http://www.betangel.com/download/

Betfair’s new API

Since our successful transition to the new Betfair API in November we have been keen to start adding new features. The new Betfair API allows you to make more calls to the API. The previous API capped data requests at 20 per

25/01/2015 | By | Reply More
Trading Relegation markets

Trading Relegation markets

I recently did a piece of relegation markets, concerning manager sackings which often occur at Christmas and new player arrivals / departures in the new year.

I have written a short piece for Betfair and a longer one for Racing Ahead magazine, but I think the video I did on You Tube is probably the best overall summary. You can view it here, or I have embedded it at the end of this video.

To supplement this video you may want …

24/01/2015 | By | Reply More
Not courtsiders this year, but pitchsiders

Not courtsiders this year, but pitchsiders

Last year we had a lot of fuss at the Australian open when a courtsider was arrested and it created a huge amount of publicity. But this year the focus seems to have turned to the Cricket.

http://www.theage.com.au/sport/cricket/tech-savvy-pitchsiders-in-game-of-hideandseek-with-anticorruption-officers-20150123-12wnl4.html

To put the story into context you should realise that in-play betting is illegal in Australia. This seems odd, but it’s a corruption led thing. You can sort of understand how spot fixing can cause authorities to jump with alarm at in-play …

23/01/2015 | By | Reply More
Bleak Mid winter?

Bleak Mid winter?

So here we are in the bleak mid-winter, but you perhaps may not know it but for one sport it always feels that way.

For racing, this is a time of year when things are a little quiet. It gets worse next month traditionally, but so far we haven’t lost that many meetings to the weather. So its an opportunity to analyse, prepare and research. Cheltenham is just around the corner so that’s always at the front of my mind.

It’s not …

22/01/2015 | By | Reply More
Sunday Soccer Stats

Sunday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments

PREVIEW: Man City v Arsenal (Sun, 16:00)

This week’s Super Sunday clash sees Arsenal travel to reigning champions Man City. Both teams currently sit one place behind where they finished last term and neither will be happy if they end the campaign in their respective fifth and second spots.

Sergio Aguero’s name on …

17/01/2015 | By | Reply More
Swiss squeeze busts West Ham sponsor

Swiss squeeze busts West Ham sponsor

As I speculated yesterday, there was bound to be some companies that couldn’t absorb the losses from the decision by Swiss to suddenly free float their currency.

The first victim to come to the fore is Alpari, they posted a rather sombre statement on their web site: -

http://www.alpari.com/company-news/posts/2015/january/important-announcement/

The key part reads: -

The recent move on the Swiss franc caused by the Swiss National Bank’s unexpected policy reversal of capping the Swiss franc against the euro has resulted …

16/01/2015 | By | Reply More
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