Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

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Laying in the sand – Part two – Santa Anita

Laying in the sand – Part two – Santa Anita

So, following on from my trip to Ireland to see Laytown races, I’m now in California and literally laying in the sand.

There are a range of reasons for that, but Santa Anita was another item off the bucket list. I’ve put a load of photos on our Facebook page if you want to see Santa Anita without the crowds.

I always enjoy California. Plenty to do for everybody, the weather is always fantastic and LA bay has miles of …

31/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Holiday booked

Holiday booked

Having worked hard during the summer I’ve been using the time since the end of peak season to catch up on a few must have moments. So this week, until Saturday at least, you wont have me in the markets. I’ve taken care to book my Betfair holiday or else its going to cost me 15,000 points or so!

I hopped on a plane on Sunday and headed out of the country for a short while. I’ll be back trading at …

27/10/2014 | By | Reply More
How extrapolation trips people up when trading

How extrapolation trips people up when trading

A trend is your friend, until the end.

One of the most common mistakes I see in newbies is trend following. Trend following is when you latch on to a pattern and extrapolate it. It could be a horse that is heavily drifting or coming in, perhaps a football team on a great run or form, or a poor one. Perhaps a team has had 20 games under 2.5 goals. Is there a trend, why, or this a natural aberration?…

27/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Sunday Soccer stats

Sunday Soccer stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. 

PREVIEW: Man Utd v Chelsea (Sun, 17:00)

Chelsea remain unbeaten in all competitions this season as their impressive form has seen them move five points clear at the top of the table. Man Utd, meanwhile, are still adapting to life under Louis van Gaal and this is only the second time in …

26/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Using Bet Angel football ratings

Using Bet Angel football ratings

You may have seen me post ratings from time to time and a debate raged on the forum about what exactly I was posting and what was it? So I thought I would take time to explain the rationale behind the ratings. You can find the ratings posted to this thread on a regular basis.

How did the ratings come around

Way back when I was trying to win the football pools I realised I needed to understand how to price …

25/10/2014 | By | Reply More
95% return on stake

95% return on stake

I thought that headline may grab your attention that the screen shot!

Basically it’s an accurate description on what I did last night before the champions league matches started, only I tend to do it on a larger scale and that reduces percentage returns. For this example, which I am documenting in detail for my course, I did it using highly replicable £10 stakes. It would be easy to add a zero to this number. Harder to add two!

Before …

23/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Saturday soccer stats

Saturday soccer stats

Betfair currently have the following football offers available today, click on any of them for full details: -

4/1 Man City to beat Spurs + Money back if you lose8/1 Arsenal, Chelsea and Southampton to win + Money back if you lose5/1 Liverpool to beat QPR + Money back if you lose & for existing Betfair customers 11/2 if Arsenal, Everton and West Ham all win.

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at 

18/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Betfair special offers

Betfair special offers

Here are a couple of decent offers from Betfair if you have never traded before.

If you don’t have a Betfair account there are some decent opening offers. If you have never traded before you can refunds on any losses you make.

No Betfair account – Get a opening bonus!

Betfair currently have the following offers available, click on any of them for full details: -

4/1 Man City to beat Spurs + Money back if you lose

8/1 Arsenal,

18/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Fingers at the ready

Fingers at the ready

After some below par racing recently, we explode into a smorgasbord of quality today. Though in typical racing fashion we have five cards on this afternoon!

Top of the list is Newmarket where prize money totals £668k over 7 races. The return of Cheltenham sees a more modest £67k for their seven races. But the presence of both should make for a decent afternoon of action.

Haydock and Redcar chip in with some lower grade action but some of that

17/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Betfair to broaden cross matching in football markets

Betfair to broaden cross matching in football markets

I’ve been aware for some time, but now it’s official; Betfair are widening the cross matching net to crossover into related markets.

What exactly does this mean?

Betfair have coined the development ‘Cross market liquidity pooling’ and it’s taking place on football. It’s not due till November and will roll out if everything goes ok.

The bottom line is if you place a bet in one market it will appear in another and vice versa. This will have the effect of …

10/10/2014 | By | Reply More
The Bank of England vs San Marino

The Bank of England vs San Marino

The racing looks poor today, so I’ve turned my attention to the Euro qualifiers this evening. But I can’t trade them as I am fulfilling my promise that after a long summer earning some money I’ll use the quieter part of the season to spend it. So this evening I’m taking my son to watch England thump San Marino.

The misery of watching England

When I was young I went on several school trips to Wembley but never saw England …

09/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Traders of the Prix De L’Arc

Traders of the Prix De L’Arc

Once a year I will taste some French racing like a connoisseur tastes French wine, with a sense of appreciation but with the gusto of a true enthusiast.

I don’t tend to trade on Sunday’s, or on French racing; but the richest race in Europe always draws my attention as it and the companion races are nearly always an opportunity. Most of the surrounding card  in the UK is not the greatest quality, so I’ll tend to do some other …

03/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Salisbury

Salisbury

Whenever I see Salisbury on the card it reminds me of a document that Betfair published many moons ago.

I saw Salisbury on the card today and the same bell rang in my head, but also a bit of alarm at the two and three runner races on the card! How poor is that? But back to the main topic.

Back in 2004 Betfair issued a document that actually clearly laid out what a market looked like. In the document

01/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. 

PREVIEW: Liverpool v Everton (Sat, 12:45)

The Merseyside Derby kicks off the Premier League weekend and if last season’s meetings are anything to go by we’ll be in for a cracker. Liverpool won this fixture 4-0 back in January while the first derby last season was a 3-3 at Goodison and Sturridge

27/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Trading the Ryder cup

Trading the Ryder cup

Once every two years the sporting world turns its attention to what is turning into a classic sporting Rivalry, the Ryder Cup.

Many years ago it didn’t have anything like the profile it does now. Post war it was a chance of US golfers to show how much better they were than UK players. Then the rules changed to make their opponents UK and Ireland but that was still dominated by the US. Then in 1985 when it became the US …

26/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. 

PREVIEW: AC Milan v Juventus (Sat, 19:45)

Milan and Juventus head into week three occupying the top two spots in the table but they’ve won their matches in highly contrasting fashions. Milan followed an opening 3-1 win over Lazio by beating Parma 5-4 last time out. Juventus, meanwhile, are yet to concede

20/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Part timer

Part timer

I’m back onto Betfair markets properly today. I’m currently taking the opportunity to enjoy the late summer sun. I had my first round of golf for a few years this morning! Having worked hard during the busier periods of the year, I can skip the quieter days at the moment without remotely denting my yearly performance much. Though I did take a look at the champions league last night.

I also nipped in on Sunday to have a pop at the …

17/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Millions by the minute

Millions by the minute

It seems every now and again a trading documentary pops up now and again on the TV. The most recent one aired last night, click on this link to watch it: -

Traders : Millions by the minute

I thought it was entertaining but quite lightweight in the scheme of things. It was curiously positioned as new and exciting but online trading in financial markets has been around for ages. I liked the way they focused on the psychological side of …

16/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. 

PREVIEW: Arsenal v Man City (Sat, 12:45)

Arsenal have gone 19 games without defeat at home but this Saturday they face the ultimate test as they host the champions, who have won 10 of their last 16 away games with just one defeat.

It’s matches like these that have proven to be

13/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Trading news flow

Trading news flow

The importance of liquidity

One of the most important aspects of a successful trading market is liquidity. You can enter any market at any price, but sometimes you will want to get out quickly as well. That is why liquidity is important when trading, it gives you control over your position.

Sometimes you can find liquidity markets in the most unusual places, hunting them has become something I enjoy doing. We’re less than a week away from the Scottish vote on …

12/09/2014 | By | Reply More
St Leger Meeting

St Leger Meeting

For some background to this meeting have a read of this wiki link.

I must admit, from a trading perspective, I haven’t got a great deal out of this meeting in the past. So I tend to not set high expectations only be disappointed. I tend to treat it as a decent meeting, but not something I expect to get anything stunning from.

My only advice, given the prior years, is to take things a little more gently. If …

10/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Laying on the beach

Laying on the beach

Laytown – Sounds like a small town where people favour only one side of the book. But its actually a racecourse in Ireland. Since 1876 Laytown has hosted a single annual horse racing meeting on its beach – one of only a couple on sand (held on the beach) race meetings run under official rules of racing in Europe.

The BBC have made it the subject of a documentary, titled Racing the Tide, and have included passages in their …

03/09/2014 | By | Reply More
US Open Tennis – Trading  short priced favourites

US Open Tennis – Trading short priced favourites

I was chatting with a few fellow traders on Skype during day three of the US Open this week and we commented that there seems to be a lot of surprise results in the WTA tournament, and in particular that both the ‘big name’ players appeared to be very short for starting prices in Grand Slams, and that they were losing the first set much more than they should be – allowing some profitable lay to back trades.

[Editor -

02/09/2014 | By | Reply More
All weather, all change

All weather, all change

It’s the 1st of September and Monday evenings at Windsor and a thing of the past for another year. I mourn the passing of the summer, but it’s not all bad news on the racing front.

In the summer you will find that with so many races on the liquidity dilutes itself across many races. Therefore you can have days were the entire card is weak from a punting and trading perspective. Contrary to BHA opinion, more races doesn’t equal more …

01/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Sometimes trading can take a back seat

Sometimes trading can take a back seat

No trading for me this afternoon as I’m am off to the funeral. An old school friend has lost his father and, to cut a very long story short, I wasn’t lucky enough to have a conventional upbringing but his family and that of another friend filled in the gaps for me. So it’s the least I can do to offer him my support at a time like this. But as they say, his Dad had a good innings, so …

29/08/2014 | By | Reply More
Two horse races

Two horse races

Here are three two horse races for you: -

(1) A two horse race yesterday at Epsom, utterly depressing. Difficult to trade, I made a loss.

(2) A Tennis match, a joy of uncertainty and volatility. Currently occurring daily in NY at the US Open Tennis at the moment. Lovely to trade.

(3) The ensuing premier league battle. Two horse race? I hear you say, but the market is speaking loudly about the prospects of the key teams already.

Chelsea have shortened …

27/08/2014 | By | Reply More
Marmite Monday

Marmite Monday

It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings  a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day.

There will be lots of meetings on today and about a billion races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, a lot isn’t of quality and many races will clash meaning that you can’t do much …

25/08/2014 | By | Reply More
How to buy success

How to buy success

As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?

The defining characteristic

As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite …

23/08/2014 | By | Reply More
York Ebor meeting

York Ebor meeting

Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week. Liquidity is usually quite good at York and I suspect I can get something decent out of some of these races.

Some decent races, some decent horses and a decent meeting should add up to a decent opportunity this week if you are trading.

Anyhow, Good …

20/08/2014 | By | Reply More
Summer has almost gone

Summer has almost gone

Seeing Wolverhampton on the card again made me realise another summer has almost passed into the spreadsheet of history.

One of the realities of sports trading is that summer is peak season across a number of sports for me, so it’s a valuable time to get into top gear. I mourn it’s passing. But my attention will now turn to Tennis for the US Open and back to Football for the winter months. Racing, of course, is an all year …

19/08/2014 | By | Reply More
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