Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

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Touching distance

Touching distance

Updated my spreadsheets and stuff last week. When I looked, I realised I was finally within touching distance of a very long term goal. One that would have been inconceivable back when I started. I would have thought you mad if you set me this as a target! It’s been a long journey….

The start

Back in June 2000 I had a neat idea.

000618 - Joined 18th June 2000 - Edit

I’d use these new fangled exchanges to arb between bookmakers and the exchanges. It was slow

18/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Going to the wire

Going to the wire

It’s a fascinating season in the Championship this year and it’s going to wire!

The championship is always ultra competitive, unlike the premier league most years, and this often throws up some interesting scenarios. The prize on offer, promotion to the premiership is such a large one, that clubs will spend or ‘fight like beavers’, to get a chance of the riches on offer.

This year we are only three games away from deciding which two lucky teams will get

17/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Spring is definitely here

Spring is definitely here

European clay court Tennis, Racing at Newmarket and shock of all shocks, some decent weather in the UK. Spring is definitely here!

So we are now on the cusp of a lot of major sporting action. This year wont be quite as busy as last year but it’s something to look forward too.

The Monte Carlo Masters Tennis is a signal to start dusting down things for the French Open. The clay court season in past years has been interesting …

16/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Finding value in a football match

Finding value in a football match

Not so long ago I tweeted the following: -

11-04-2015 06-11-25 - Tweet top opponent - Copy

Tonight Bournemouth play Reading away but there is an interesting metric going on tonight. Reading are reasonably, though not entirely clear, of relegation in the Championship. But more importantly they are only 90 minutes away from an FA Cup final.

Bournemouth are in the position of being in complete control of their destiny at the top of the division. If they win every match remaining they will be in the premier

14/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Manchester Derby

Manchester Derby

PREVIEW: Man Utd v Man City (Sun, 16:00)

The Manchester clubs come into the derby having experienced contrasting fortunes in recent weeks. Comparisons between Van Gaal’s side and David Moyes’ team at the same stage last season are now long gone and the Dutchman seems to have put his stamp on the side after a turbulent start to the season. Pellegrini, on the other hand, is looking anything but secure in his position as manager of City, who look destined to

12/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Best of a bad job

Best of a bad job

Well that was an interesting day. I knew it was going to be a case of doing the best I could in tricky circumstances. Despite being tired it all worked out roughly in the end. But it didn’t feel like a successful day!

First up, the run-away leader in the US Masters made this a particularly tricky Masters this year around. I wanted a record result, I desperately wanted to break a four figure sum but it looks like that chance has

11/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Losses refunded – BETDAQ trading promotion

Losses refunded – BETDAQ trading promotion

In line with the release of the new version of BetDAQ Angel, view the video here, BETDAQ would love you to give it a decent test drive. Therefore they are offering you a rebate on losses on your account while you give it a good thrashing. There has never been a better time to give trading on BETDAQ a try, especially now you can automate it using the new version of Bet Angel for BETDAQ.

Download a copy of the new

10/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Making money on the Grand National

Making money on the Grand National

So the Grand National is upon us and that monumental task faces us again, picking a winner from 40 runners. Worse than that, all our friends will want a tip as well.

Picking the winner from this incomprehensible field is a bit of a nightmare. There are some common trends that are touted each year. Horses that haven’t won over three miles are generally not considered, as are horses with no experience of large fields. Positives are age, experience, proven stamina,

10/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Trading the US Masters Golf

Trading the US Masters Golf

I like the US Masters, mainly because it’s the only major played on the same course each year. This means you can collect a ton of stats on how the course plays. This gives me a good guide as to when to trade in and out of a position. You can do this on most courses, but because the Masters is at the same location every year it is much more predictable.

If you are a golf player, when …

08/04/2015 | By | Reply More
BETDAQangel now includes automation

BETDAQangel now includes automation

While you have been busy filling your face with chocolate over Easter the team here have been busy road testing the latest version of Bet Angel for BETDAQ. It is now ready for release!

The latest upgrade is on top of the all the recent upgrades we made to the previous version of Bet Angel for BETDAQ, which you can view here: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7dihNSS2ng

This latest version now includes automation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONYUUeS9osA

Using automation you really have little excuse for not …

07/04/2015 | By | Reply More
How to treat teams with nothing to play for

How to treat teams with nothing to play for

As we approach the business end of the season, with titles being decided, clubs scrambling to achieve European qualification and some fighting for their lives to avoid relegation, in each of Europe’s top leagues there will be a group of teams that don’t fit into any of the aforementioned categories. They are far enough clear of the relegation zone to not be concerned, while the European spots are out of their grasp in the number of games remaining and these

06/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

PREVIEW: Arsenal v Liverpool (Sat, 12:45)

Arsenal get the chance to all but confirm their top four finish with the lunchtime kick-off on Saturday as they host a Liverpool side that stand six points below them with just eight games remaining. Given their superior goal difference that is effectively a 6.5 point advantage and Liverpool simply have to win here if they are to claim a Champions League finish this term.

Liverpool will need to overturn a poor recent record

04/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Houston open Golf – Best trades

Houston open Golf – Best trades

I’m warming up for Augusta, so I’ve been having a dabble in Houston. Here are the best trades so far to £10 stakes.

Paul Casey is having a bit of form recently but of course he won’t be at the Masters. McIlroy has drifted a little but that’s normal.

Matt Kuchar – 18.5 to 13.5 : £3.70
J.B. Holmes – 30 to 8.4 : £25.71
Sergio Garcia – 28 to 15 : £8.67
Phil Mickelson – 30 to 13 : …

03/04/2015 | By | Reply More
The flat is back

The flat is back

While playing Football World Cup in the desert may not be a great ideal, running the world’s richest race is!

This weekend we have two key events in the racing calendar , the highest profile being the Dubai World Cup in Meydan. Here is another sports event I will make the effort to attend some day. For the moment, I’m still sat behind my monitor taking an active interest in it from the other side. The racecourse was designed to be spectacular and

27/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Bet Angel now includes live Tennis scores

Bet Angel now includes live Tennis scores

We are delighted to announce Bet Angel professional version 1.39 has been released. This is a major upgrade from version 1.38. Key new features: -

  • Live tennis scores via Betfair.com now exposed via Bet Angel
  • Bet or Trade automatically based on underlying scores in a match
  • Improvements to the search feature
  • Improvements to Tennis trader

The new version of Bet Angel is available for immediate download. You can download and install from: -

 http://www.betangel.com/download/?product=BetAngelPro

If you are an existing Bet Angel

23/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Sunday Soccer Stats

Sunday Soccer Stats

PREVIEW: Liverpool v Man Utd (Sun, 13:30)
With Chelsea six points clear and with a game in hand, the top-four race looks set to be a much closer finish than that for the title. Since Liverpool and Man United are currently fighting each other for fourth place, this game, which is arguably the biggest rivalry in English football, could be pivotal in determining who will be playing Champions League football next season. A win for Liverpool here would put them
22/03/2015 | By | Reply More
WBX – World betting exchange – Closes

WBX – World betting exchange – Closes

I doubt many people noticed but on Monday WBX shut it doors to new business. They haven’t gone bust so all outstanding bets will be settled and the operations will continue until all business has been sorted out but citing a number of issues they have decided that enough is enough. You can read the notice on their site: -

http://www.wbx.com/notice/scNotice.html

I noticed there is no chatter on any forums about it, I guess a few posts may appear after I post

18/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Could the General election change racing forever?

Could the General election change racing forever?

A fair few years ago I started visiting the houses of parliament.

I wasn’t looking to be an MP I just wanted to follow the passage of the new Gambling Bill through parliament and the committee stage. I learnt a lot about politics, lobbying, MP’s, party whips and the legislative process. The biggest thing I learnt was it was largely a pointless exercise. All the discussion, cross checking and diligence went out the window when the bill was guillotined thanks

18/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Sunday Soccer Stats

Sunday Soccer Stats

PREVIEW: Chelsea v Southampton (Sun, 13:30)

Chelsea come into this game on the back of a thoroughly disappointing result and performance against PSG in midweek, while Southampton’s schedule has been much easier without the rigours of European football or domestic cup ties. They beat Crystal Palace last weekend in what was a much needed win after defeats against West Brom and Liverpool. Chelsea will be looking to maintain their comfortable position at the top of the league, while Southampton will

15/03/2015 | By | Reply More
A quick summary of Cheltenham

A quick summary of Cheltenham

Well it’s a relief that the first big week of the year is over, but also a bit of disappointment. Today was the misery I expected and the adjustment back to run of the mill action is underway. But big meetings don’t come around that often, so love them or hate them there are not that many. 

The meeting had a lot of volume, but don’t confuse volume with liquidity they are two different things. I need to do a video

14/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Has Manuel Pellegrini got Manchester City’s Tactics Right?

Has Manuel Pellegrini got Manchester City’s Tactics Right?

I’ve reproduce this article courtesy of Football Form Labs. It’s a nice piece.
Following Gary Neville’s recent piece in The Telegraph on Manchester City’s tactics in ‘big games’,we’ve done some statistical analysis in relation to Neville’s claims. Neville suggests that in big games if Yaya Toure plays with a central midfield partner, then Nasri and Silva can’t both play, nor can City play with two strikers. Similarly if City opt to play Silva and Nasri, then Neville argues that
14/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Cheltenham update

Cheltenham update

A quick update on how the week is going so far. Today, Thursday, is trading well so far.

 

12/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Trading Cheltenham

Trading Cheltenham

This year I’ve decided to upload a video to narrate some of the stats and detail behind how Cheltenham trades. It seems much easier to express and emphasise points and show a number of things on a video that you can’t do in text. So I’ve created the longest video yet and uploaded it for you!

For those of you that want the text I’ve prepared a long document for you here. It should be of interest one way or

07/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats – Do refs affect goals?

Saturday Soccer Stats – Do refs affect goals?

PREVIEW: QPR v Spurs (Sat, 15:00)
With the Premier League taking a back seat to the FA Cup this weekend there is an opportunity for Spurs to move back into the top six and close the gap on fourth placed Man Utd to just three points.

With QPR having lost six of their last seven matches things are looking bad for the promoted side, especially as they only have two remaining home games against current bottom-half teams and those are
07/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Betfair results send share price rocketing

Betfair results send share price rocketing

Betfair announced a glowing set of results this morning: -

http://corporate.betfair.com/media/press-releases/2015/05-03-2015.aspx

Since Breon Corcoran came to power we have seen a shift from the exchange very much to the sportsbook on Betfair and it seems to be working, for them. I haven’t seen any advertising for the exchange for probably two years now. The rationale for this is that it’s easier to get customers onto the sportbook. Number of active customers are up 35% to 760,000, so that is true!

05/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Cheltenham Beckons….

Cheltenham Beckons….

OK, we are almost there now. We are just a stones throw from Cheltenham and I’m deep into research how previous years traded, all the stats, videos, charts and anything that can refresh my mind on previous years.

I’ve produced this video for you to give you my initial thoughts ahead of the Festival. Another video will follow with more detailed analysis.

 

04/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Nailed on Lay Bet

Nailed on Lay Bet

I jest slightly, but there is probably a deeper message here. Rather than tip tap away for 1/2 hour to bring you this rather startling comment from a trader I thought I would do a video about it, Enjoy!

03/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Automated trading on Betfair – Profiting from a steamer

Automated trading on Betfair – Profiting from a steamer

When a horse starts getting backed, people will often pile into the gamble and the price will steam in. You can benefit from this, using Bet Angel’s automation tools…

One of the best trades to pick up on in a horse racing market is a jolly good ‘steamer’. That is horse racing parlance for a horse who keeps on getting backed and backed, the opposite to a ‘drifter’. There can be any number of reasons for this to happen …

22/02/2015 | By | 1 Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments

PREVIEW: Sampdoria v Genoa (Sat, 19:45)

It’s another weekend with few high profile clashes across Europe but one game that is sure to be full of passion is the Derby della Lanterna in Genoa. Things have calmed down a bit recently between these sides, with just two red cards in the last seven …

21/02/2015 | By | Reply More
The low point

The low point

So here we are in mid February, in the depths of winter.

Australian Open tennis has just finished, Cheltenham isn’t too far away but for now the immediate outlook is a little weak for me. We have the champions league, but that’s only two matches on a Tuesday and Wednesday. Europa league looks a bit more interesting, though less volume. There is World cup cricket, but in a different time zone. So there are opportunities around but in general things are a …

19/02/2015 | By | Reply More
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