Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

rss feed Facebook Twitter YouTube

Monaco Grand Prix

Monaco Grand Prix

You could be forgiven for thinking that if you qualify on pole in Monaco you will win. The tight street circuit is a big test for anybody who is attempting to overtake, but my stats paint a different picture.

Street vs. Race circuits

Monaco was one of the first circuits I profiled and it was because I expected it to throw of some definable characteristics. But what it taught me was just how different street circuits are to custom race tracks. Fairly obvious

23/05/2015 | By | Reply More
York Dante Metting

York Dante Metting

After a successful Chester meeting we roll onto York for the Dante meeting this week.

The York card looks OK but the other stuff on the card today looks a little ‘testing’. For a direct comparison look at the prize money. Kempton has a grand total of £19.5k, York £185k. I’ll be cautious and use small stakes at Kempton as a result,

As we move through the early part of the flat turf season, the early part of the week

13/05/2015 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

PREVIEW: Hull v Burnley (Sat, 15:00)

With three games remaining this is the definition of a ‘six-pointer’ as a win for either side could well prove the death blow to the other’s hopes of survival, and if Burnley lose they will definitely be down this weekend.

Hull were outplayed by Arsenal on Monday but they had won back-to-back matches prior to that and their recent home form is quite good. They’ve won three of their last six at the KC Stadium, …

09/05/2015 | By | Reply More
TPC Sawgrass – The cut

TPC Sawgrass – The cut

Some decent results from this championship this week. Jordan Spieth didn’t carry his Masters form into Sawgrass and has been cut. Returns to £10 stakes at the cut: -

Start to cut – Rory McIlroy – 9 to 7.6 – £1.84
Start to cut – Kevin Na – 100 to 9 – £101.11
Start to cut – Rickie Fowler – 60 to 10.5 – £47.14
Start to cut – Jim Furyk – 27 to 22 – £2.27
Start to cut

09/05/2015 | By | Reply More
Chester May Festival

Chester May Festival

Chester May festival starts today and it’s a welcome addition to the card, but based upon previous years it’s nothing amazing from a trading viewpoint.

Obviously we all love some extra liquidity that the quality racing will bring, but it’s never been a meeting that I’ve got really good amounts from. By that I mean I’m not banging in three figure results a race. Just the odd one or two a day. The thing to note about Chester is its

06/05/2015 | By | Reply More
May Bank holiday racing

May Bank holiday racing

So that’s the Guineas parked for another year. I did OK, but didn’t get as much as I would have liked from the feature races, I just can’t get my orders filled quickly enough. But it was a satisfactory result. Over the two days I produced remarkably similar results. So 10/10 for consistency but maybe a bit less for the overall results.

02-05-2015 - 200 Guineas day P&L - Copy04-05-2015 - P&L Day - Copy

Another public holidays means a whole bundle of racing on the card, often too much. If you have a lot of …

04/05/2015 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

PREVIEW: Spurs v Man City (Sun, 16:00)

Spurs salvaged a draw at Southampton last weekend to maintain their sixth position in the standings and they remain hopeful of finishing fifth after Liverpool’s midweek loss at Hull. Man City, meanwhile, are back up to second following their rather lucky win over Aston Villa. Of course Villa are in good form and did recently end Spurs’ 10 match unbeaten streak at home.

Spurs started the season poorly at White Hart Lane, losing four of

02/05/2015 | By | Reply More
Trading the Newmarket Guineas meeting

Trading the Newmarket Guineas meeting

The weather is looking mixed this weekend for the first real big trading market of the flat season, the Guineas. I’ve always enjoyed the Guineas meeting and have had some fun and game over the years on it.

Last year on the 2000 Guineas I bagged a decent total from the race. The market reached over £4m in turnover but tomorrow I think it will be down a bit. This is mainly due to the market dynamics and the fact it is a much

01/05/2015 | By | Reply More
Trading early season flat racing

Trading early season flat racing

With Aintree out of the way we are now in the transition to the full flat racing season and evening racing.

The seasonal transition from one code to another can present problems if you bet and trade with the same style throughout the year, so it’s worth exploring what is different about this time of year.

The first thing to note is that the late season jumps racing has been suffering more than normal this year. A dry April and firm ground has depleted

01/05/2015 | By | Reply More
Punchestown Festival

Punchestown Festival

The Punchestown Festival this week is a good opportunity to get tucked into some good quality Irish racing.

The jumps finale offers a decent prize fund and total prize money today is £283,000, versus one tenth of that on the UK meetings.

Irish racing is much weaker than UK racing typically, doing about half of what you expect on a UK race, but the good quality stuff can produce decent volume. So it always worth a look. The Punchestown festival often pulls in a a couple

28/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Permutations at the ready

Permutations at the ready

Bournemouth are at home to Bolton this evening, a win will see them get promoted. Well I say that, but a win would put them three points ahead of rivals with a vastly superior goal difference. As good as a promoted.

There are a number of permutations available for the adventurous this evening. Bournemouth are 1.30′s for the match and 1.10ish for promotion. Backing them for the match but going against promotion could prove useful. Of course they could draw

27/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

PREVIEW: Espanyol v Barcelona (Sat, 15:00)

With six games remaining Barcelona have the advantage in the title race against Real Madrid. But it’s only a slender lead and while Espanyol have tended to be woeful at this time of year in recent seasons – in their final eight games since 2009/10 their record is W7-D11-L24 with a greater than 50% loss if you’d backed them in all those matches – you can guarantee they’ll be motivated for this clash.

Unfortunately for

25/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Touching distance

Touching distance

Updated my spreadsheets and stuff last week. When I looked, I realised I was finally within touching distance of a very long term goal. One that would have been inconceivable back when I started. I would have thought you mad if you set me this as a target! It’s been a long journey….

The start

Back in June 2000 I had a neat idea.

000618 - Joined 18th June 2000 - Edit

I’d use these new fangled exchanges to arb between bookmakers and the exchanges. It was slow

18/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Going to the wire

Going to the wire

It’s a fascinating season in the Championship this year and it’s going to wire!

The championship is always ultra competitive, unlike the premier league most years, and this often throws up some interesting scenarios. The prize on offer, promotion to the premiership is such a large one, that clubs will spend or ‘fight like beavers’, to get a chance of the riches on offer.

This year we are only three games away from deciding which two lucky teams will get

17/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Spring is definitely here

Spring is definitely here

European clay court Tennis, Racing at Newmarket and shock of all shocks, some decent weather in the UK. Spring is definitely here!

So we are now on the cusp of a lot of major sporting action. This year wont be quite as busy as last year but it’s something to look forward too.

The Monte Carlo Masters Tennis is a signal to start dusting down things for the French Open. The clay court season in past years has been interesting …

16/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Finding value in a football match

Finding value in a football match

Not so long ago I tweeted the following: -

11-04-2015 06-11-25 - Tweet top opponent - Copy

Tonight Bournemouth play Reading away but there is an interesting metric going on tonight. Reading are reasonably, though not entirely clear, of relegation in the Championship. But more importantly they are only 90 minutes away from an FA Cup final.

Bournemouth are in the position of being in complete control of their destiny at the top of the division. If they win every match remaining they will be in the premier

14/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Manchester Derby

Manchester Derby

PREVIEW: Man Utd v Man City (Sun, 16:00)

The Manchester clubs come into the derby having experienced contrasting fortunes in recent weeks. Comparisons between Van Gaal’s side and David Moyes’ team at the same stage last season are now long gone and the Dutchman seems to have put his stamp on the side after a turbulent start to the season. Pellegrini, on the other hand, is looking anything but secure in his position as manager of City, who look destined to

12/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Best of a bad job

Best of a bad job

Well that was an interesting day. I knew it was going to be a case of doing the best I could in tricky circumstances. Despite being tired it all worked out roughly in the end. But it didn’t feel like a successful day!

First up, the run-away leader in the US Masters made this a particularly tricky Masters this year around. I wanted a record result, I desperately wanted to break a four figure sum but it looks like that chance has

11/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Losses refunded – BETDAQ trading promotion

Losses refunded – BETDAQ trading promotion

In line with the release of the new version of BetDAQ Angel, view the video here, BETDAQ would love you to give it a decent test drive. Therefore they are offering you a rebate on losses on your account while you give it a good thrashing. There has never been a better time to give trading on BETDAQ a try, especially now you can automate it using the new version of Bet Angel for BETDAQ.

Download a copy of the new

10/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Making money on the Grand National

Making money on the Grand National

So the Grand National is upon us and that monumental task faces us again, picking a winner from 40 runners. Worse than that, all our friends will want a tip as well.

Picking the winner from this incomprehensible field is a bit of a nightmare. There are some common trends that are touted each year. Horses that haven’t won over three miles are generally not considered, as are horses with no experience of large fields. Positives are age, experience, proven stamina,

10/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Trading the US Masters Golf

Trading the US Masters Golf

I like the US Masters, mainly because it’s the only major played on the same course each year. This means you can collect a ton of stats on how the course plays. This gives me a good guide as to when to trade in and out of a position. You can do this on most courses, but because the Masters is at the same location every year it is much more predictable.

If you are a golf player, when …

08/04/2015 | By | Reply More
BETDAQangel now includes automation

BETDAQangel now includes automation

While you have been busy filling your face with chocolate over Easter the team here have been busy road testing the latest version of Bet Angel for BETDAQ. It is now ready for release!

The latest upgrade is on top of the all the recent upgrades we made to the previous version of Bet Angel for BETDAQ, which you can view here: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7dihNSS2ng

This latest version now includes automation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONYUUeS9osA

Using automation you really have little excuse for not …

07/04/2015 | By | Reply More
How to treat teams with nothing to play for

How to treat teams with nothing to play for

As we approach the business end of the season, with titles being decided, clubs scrambling to achieve European qualification and some fighting for their lives to avoid relegation, in each of Europe’s top leagues there will be a group of teams that don’t fit into any of the aforementioned categories. They are far enough clear of the relegation zone to not be concerned, while the European spots are out of their grasp in the number of games remaining and these

06/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

PREVIEW: Arsenal v Liverpool (Sat, 12:45)

Arsenal get the chance to all but confirm their top four finish with the lunchtime kick-off on Saturday as they host a Liverpool side that stand six points below them with just eight games remaining. Given their superior goal difference that is effectively a 6.5 point advantage and Liverpool simply have to win here if they are to claim a Champions League finish this term.

Liverpool will need to overturn a poor recent record

04/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Houston open Golf – Best trades

Houston open Golf – Best trades

I’m warming up for Augusta, so I’ve been having a dabble in Houston. Here are the best trades so far to £10 stakes.

Paul Casey is having a bit of form recently but of course he won’t be at the Masters. McIlroy has drifted a little but that’s normal.

Matt Kuchar – 18.5 to 13.5 : £3.70
J.B. Holmes – 30 to 8.4 : £25.71
Sergio Garcia – 28 to 15 : £8.67
Phil Mickelson – 30 to 13 : …

03/04/2015 | By | Reply More
The flat is back

The flat is back

While playing Football World Cup in the desert may not be a great ideal, running the world’s richest race is!

This weekend we have two key events in the racing calendar , the highest profile being the Dubai World Cup in Meydan. Here is another sports event I will make the effort to attend some day. For the moment, I’m still sat behind my monitor taking an active interest in it from the other side. The racecourse was designed to be spectacular and

27/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Bet Angel now includes live Tennis scores

Bet Angel now includes live Tennis scores

We are delighted to announce Bet Angel professional version 1.39 has been released. This is a major upgrade from version 1.38. Key new features: -

  • Live tennis scores via Betfair.com now exposed via Bet Angel
  • Bet or Trade automatically based on underlying scores in a match
  • Improvements to the search feature
  • Improvements to Tennis trader

The new version of Bet Angel is available for immediate download. You can download and install from: -

 http://www.betangel.com/download/?product=BetAngelPro

If you are an existing Bet Angel

23/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Sunday Soccer Stats

Sunday Soccer Stats

PREVIEW: Liverpool v Man Utd (Sun, 13:30)
With Chelsea six points clear and with a game in hand, the top-four race looks set to be a much closer finish than that for the title. Since Liverpool and Man United are currently fighting each other for fourth place, this game, which is arguably the biggest rivalry in English football, could be pivotal in determining who will be playing Champions League football next season. A win for Liverpool here would put them
22/03/2015 | By | Reply More
WBX – World betting exchange – Closes

WBX – World betting exchange – Closes

I doubt many people noticed but on Monday WBX shut it doors to new business. They haven’t gone bust so all outstanding bets will be settled and the operations will continue until all business has been sorted out but citing a number of issues they have decided that enough is enough. You can read the notice on their site: -

http://www.wbx.com/notice/scNotice.html

I noticed there is no chatter on any forums about it, I guess a few posts may appear after I post

18/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Could the General election change racing forever?

Could the General election change racing forever?

A fair few years ago I started visiting the houses of parliament.

I wasn’t looking to be an MP I just wanted to follow the passage of the new Gambling Bill through parliament and the committee stage. I learnt a lot about politics, lobbying, MP’s, party whips and the legislative process. The biggest thing I learnt was it was largely a pointless exercise. All the discussion, cross checking and diligence went out the window when the bill was guillotined thanks

18/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Hypersmash.com