Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

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Poll straw – Trump trumped

Poll straw – Trump trumped

An interesting set of results came in from the US caucuses last night. But it highlighted again that people don’t tell the truth to pollsters. I think I can explain.

Everybody hates an outsider

Nobody likes to be an outsider, apart from me it seems. But being an outsider is where some of the best decisions can be made. However it takes a great deal of strength to be different. So when a pollster phones you or harrases you in

02/02/2016 | By | Reply More
Free Tennis trading guide worth £19.99

Free Tennis trading guide worth £19.99

Interested in Tennis trading? With the Australian open upon us, why not combine some knowledge with the best Tennis trading software around!

The offer

Order a copy of Bet Angel Professional (excluding one day access) and get a copy of Dan Weston’s – ‘Mastering Tennis trading’ completely free of charge. Click here for an overview of the book, we are giving away the full version!

Read about how to trade Tennis in Dan’s book and then execute your strategy using

30/01/2016 | By | Reply More
Hope the Cheltenham trials are rubbish :)

Hope the Cheltenham trials are rubbish :)

Sorry for the provocative headline, but I’m not able to trade today. It will be the first time in over a decade that I will miss the highlight of January. So I hope it’s rubbish 😉

If you are trading however, good quality racing will great you today at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Fairyhouse; it should be a good day.

I’ve traditionally done well on this day and would hope that it lives up to expectations. I’ll be keeping in touch

30/01/2016 | By | Reply More
Option to profit

Option to profit

Been nosing at the Derby vs. Man Utd FA Cup this evening with interest.

Man United are about evens for the match and playing away. This struck a chord with me.

First off, everybody knows how bad Man Utd have been recently. Their last 11 home games at half time have been 0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-1,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0. OK they are away and at a team a division lower, but confidence is obviously fragile. If Derby want to make things difficult, especially tactically, they can.

The

29/01/2016 | By | Reply More
The big short

The big short

Went and watched the big short last night. I enjoyed it.

The film

I thought they dumbed down elements a bit, but that’s to be expected to broaden the appeal. I’d imagine it will go over the heads of a few people that are not interested in financial markets, but it was entertaining and enjoyable if you are into trading in any manner.

As a traditionally comedic actor, I thought Steve Carrel’s performance was particularly good.

Like most dramatisations there

24/01/2016 | By | Reply More
The top 1%

The top 1%

Saw some headlines this morning from Oxfam about wealth distribution. The glaring headline was that the top 1% of the world ‘own’ the rest of it.

Deeper analysis though exposed the headline grabbing number as a bit of a ‘back of a fag packet’ calculation. Exposed by the fact that ‘It takes cash and assets worth $68,800 (£48,300) to get into the top 10%, and $760,000 (£533,000) to be in the 1%. That means that if you own an average

20/01/2016 | By | Reply More
Buzzfeed sticks the knife into Tennis integrity

Buzzfeed sticks the knife into Tennis integrity

Possibly the most comprehensive document(s) I have ever seen on match fixing emerged last night and are documented in detail on the BuzzFeed site. Called, ‘The Tennis Racket’, is has a provocative headline: –

Betting worth billions. Elite players. Violent threats. Covert messages with Sicilian gamblers. And suspicious matches at Wimbledon. Leaked files expose match-fixing evidence that tennis authorities have kept secret for years.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/the-tennis-racket#.cdBPOYv2b

It’s caused quite a stir, but relates to a period a little while ago. But …

18/01/2016 | By | Reply More
Can Leicester qualify for the champions league?

Can Leicester qualify for the champions league?

Did you know, Leicester have been here before? Read on….

Analytics

The thing I love about the modern football analytics movement is there are increasing amounts of, free, data out there that will help you make good, sensible, rational decisions. Far more than I could have ever imagined.

It’s a long way from when I wrote to a magazine in the 80’s about in-play football and the editors response was that he couldn’t see how it would interest anybody.

Quite

16/01/2016 | By | Reply More
The futility of legislation in the Internet age

The futility of legislation in the Internet age

Betfair recently decided (most likely strategically) to exit the Canada market. This is a downer for North American sports and despite online sports betting being banned in the US, as I have discovered on previous trips there, liquidity is alive and well. I wonder where that could be coming from? I’m half expecting a review from Betfair to announce a Sportbooks will be launched there in the near future 😉

No sooner had Betfair announced the exit, than username change

15/01/2016 | By | Reply More
FA Cup third round shocks

FA Cup third round shocks

Ah, the romance of the FA Cup

The romance bit comes from a non league team coming up against a major club and beating them. But the evidence for regular giant killings is getting a little thin on the ground. But the third round and confidence can make a huge difference.

Small teams and progression

In 2014 we had Sheffield United getting all the way to the semi finals and of course in 2013 Wigan ensured the demise of Mancini’s tenure

09/01/2016 | By | Reply More
You think Donald Trump is bad!

You think Donald Trump is bad!

There has been lots of discussion about Donald Trump’s rants of a mad man recently. So here are some more: –

A CASINO IN EVERY SMARTPHONE – LAW ENFORCEMENT IMPLICATIONS

https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/a-casino-in-every-smartphone-law-enforcement-implications/

This was the hearing that was called  when the DOJ OLC reversed a long-standing policy by declaring that the Wire Act applied only to sports betting and not all forms of betting. This policy reversal potentially ‘opens the door’ for online gambling in all 50 states.

One sided views

For my

05/01/2016 | By | 2 Replies More
Billy no mates

Billy no mates

Nobody has invited us around this Christmas, so yet again today, our family is hosting everybody for lunch, but I wont be there. I guess somebody needs to earn the money to pay for it 😉 I’ll be locked in my study and making the odd appearance to say hello.

New years day is a busy day in the sporting world. At least the footy is occurring on a different day this year! But the racing is on today, as always

01/01/2016 | By | Reply More
The Pareto principle

The Pareto principle

2015 has been about the Pareto Principle for me. Though contrary to the rule, I’m going to end up on about 70-75% of the prior year but have still benefited from a big reduction in required activity. Perhaps I’ve been a little too lax?

I set out on the year to not spend as much time on markets I knew wouldn’t yield as much, so I actively chose to focus on the big opportunities. This isn’t something I’d generally recommend, because

31/12/2015 | By | Reply More
How to win £45m in a few minutes

How to win £45m in a few minutes

Four years ago today we were treated to a day of spectacular proportions. 

On this this day at the Christmas hurdle at Leopardstown, something went very, very wrong. Voler La Vedette ran home to take that race, but for most of the race £21m was available to back at good odds. Nobody it seemed was able to take all that money in-running however and ‘only’ £1.6m was matched, meaning the loser would have to pay out a cool £44.8m to the

28/12/2015 | By | Reply More
Boxing day markets

Boxing day markets

So we are at Christmas and everything, apart from your wallet probably, took a break. Now it’s back with a bang on Boxing day.

Putting aside the cricket and the packed football fixture list, there are eleven race meetings today with 769 runners.

The problem you have on days like this is that the races fall all over each other and before one has finished another has already started. They are also generally lower quality and less interesting as betting markets, so

26/12/2015 | By | Reply More
Merry Christmas from the Bet Angel Team

Merry Christmas from the Bet Angel Team

As is tradition each year, we would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your interest and business in 2015.

Each year I learn more and more about the market, how it works and that knowledge makes its way into Bet Angel for your added benefit. We also have some get loads of great suggestions for our many full time users.  That’s why we will continue to pioneer a path through the markets for a long time into the

24/12/2015 | By | Reply More
Christmas week and trading (or lack thereof)

Christmas week and trading (or lack thereof)

I noticed that Ayr has been abandoned today and that makes a bit of a mess of the card. So I think that’s me done till Boxing day on the racing.

It’s usually pretty quiet in the run up to Christmas day in the UK and this week is no exception. Because the holidays shift from year to year, this year Boxing day has fallen on a Saturday. That should be an interesting day! So I’m saving my gunpowder till

21/12/2015 | By | Reply More
SPOTY

SPOTY

Trading BBC sports personality of the year
20/12/2015 | By | Reply More
Are you getting a duff price?

Are you getting a duff price?

Had an interesting conversation with somebody recently about how they can’t use the exchange any longer because the prices on the sports book were much better.

Here is why he realised he had made a mistake: –

Industry pricing for football

The first thing to note is that industry prices on football are much tighter than they used to be. I’ll have to dig out some very old prices to see what they were in the distant past, but typically

16/12/2015 | By | Reply More
Incentive to score and how it benefits your trading

Incentive to score and how it benefits your trading

That one word is how I would describe the next two evenings worth champions league matches.

Some teams will have a big incentive to score, others to not lose and others no incentive to do anything at all. If a team needs a goal, as the clock ticks to the end of the match all hell could be let loose as they chase it. It’s my favourite stage of a any competition!

Difficult and easy

This often makes it difficult to

08/12/2015 | By | Reply More
Finding value in Football matches

Finding value in Football matches

Yesterday I posted the following:-

05-12-2015 16-27-16

 

There were a number of reasons I said I was looking for some upsets, far too complex for one blog post. But one of the things was confidence. Not confidence in my ability, that’s not a problem :), but more confidence within the teams playing each other. It looked fairly ripe for an upset or two. Therefore I was looking to lay (and / or trade) with that in mind. I was opposing the …

06/12/2015 | By | Reply More
New version of Bet Angel – 1.42

New version of Bet Angel – 1.42

I was searching the Blog this evening to point somebody to the additions we made in the most recent version of Bet Angel and realised I hadn’t posted it. It was posted on the forum, but not here. So it seemed logical to post it here as well!

Download the latest version of Bet Angel from here: –

http://www.betangel.com/download/?product=BetAngelPro

Watch a video about it here: –

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21wYOdX0PJM

The long and short of the latest version of Bet Angel is that you

05/12/2015 | By | Reply More
Tingle Creek meeting

Tingle Creek meeting

For some reason, I know it’s named after a horse, the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown sounds Christmassy to me, but for sure is an early highpoint in December .

The meeting is joined by Aintree and the Welsh Grand National trial on Saturday to make a decent card. It should make up for the dross we have had during the week!

At this time of the year it’s easy to slip into some gloom. Like the weather, the markets …

04/12/2015 | By | Reply More
Hennessy Gold Cup – One of my favourite races

Hennessy Gold Cup – One of my favourite races

I have fond memories of the Hennessy Gold Cup. I’ve traditionally done well at this race and its the race I traded live at the IX Investor show for Betfair in 2006. I know I’ve posted this summary, or something similar, before. But it’s definitely one of the highlights of my trading career so far so it’s worth a reprise for those that haven’t seen it before.

Betfair at a financial market expo

Seeing a betting company at an financial investment show

28/11/2015 | By | 1 Reply More
Help me, help you

Help me, help you

Over the last 15 years I’ve researched roughly a million markets, traded somewhere approaching 175,000 and recorded thousands of videos. I often record myself trading so I can look back and understand how I could do better, I’d recommend it!

The problem

It would be nice to publish a lot of those videos, unfortunately I don’t tend to have the time to do that. We keep a small team here and there are only 24 hours in a day! That’s the peril of …

27/11/2015 | By | Reply More
Predicting goals – Part one

Predicting goals – Part one

To get some context into this post read the goal ratings thread…

When you’re looking at a football match, goals are obviously of great importance. Every strategy you deploy on a football match is reliant to some extent on whether a goal is scored or not.

Starting point

The first place to start when you trading in football is to work out if you think there will be a goal, obviously.

Low scoring rates

High quality matches between even teams, where

25/11/2015 | By | 1 Reply More
OLBG trading censorship

OLBG trading censorship

A little while ago I saw a comment on OLBG’s site that I knew wasn’t true. So, as is my right, I made a comment to clear up any confusion. The author responded positively and kindly to my clarification and all was good. A generally positive experience, I think I’ll come back again.

Faffing about

A few months later I checked back and noticed the counter comment was gone, so I tried to log into my account and post again. Various failed

23/11/2015 | By | 3 Replies More
Free Tennis trading guide worth £19.99

Free Tennis trading guide worth £19.99

Interested in trading on Tennis? Why not combine some knowledge with the best Tennis trading software around!

The offer

Order a copy of Bet Angel Professional (excluding one day access) and get a copy of Dan Weston’s – ‘Mastering Tennis trading’ completely free of charge. Click here for an overview of the book, we are giving away the full version!

Read about how to trade Tennis in Dan’s book and then execute your strategy using the many tools available in

20/11/2015 | By | Reply More
ATP World tour finals

ATP World tour finals

The ATP World tour finals have already started, in case you hadn’t noticed, and tonight we were treated to a Djokovic vs Federer rematch. Today Murray vs Nadal.

I like this tournament. I’ve been a couple of times now and it’s such a different feel from the slightly stuffy and exclusive Wimbledon. It was great to hear that London will continue to host this series until at least 2018. It’s much more vibrant than Wimbledon and you WILL get to see

18/11/2015 | By | Reply More
I think I’ve spotted a trend!

I think I’ve spotted a trend!

I must admit, the Melbourne Cup Carnival has got off to a slow start for me this year. So I thought I’d better check on whether I was underperforming, or whether there was something else going on.

Something else in going on.

I took the first two days of the Carnival from my records and analysed total turnover in the markets for those two days. Obviously it started from a lower base some time ago, but the peak was in …

04/11/2015 | By | 2 Replies More
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