Author Archive: Peter Webb
Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.
On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.
Tonight in the US we have the first presidential debate and what an interesting one it looks like it will be!
Take your side
In the red corner we have the eccentric, surely can’t be elected president, TV personality Donald Trump. And in the blue corner we have the political dynasty that are the Clintons.
Political markets rise in prominence
Political markets on Betfair are becoming very big business and this prominence within the marketplace reached a peak during the …
It was with interest this week that somebody pointed me to a blog post debating, or should I say justifying a stance on automated trading vs manual trading. Here is my angle on it: –
If you look to financial markets you have many aspects to it. High-frequency traders, slamming in positions in and out of the market to scrape a few cents per trade in as large a block as they can get through. A very specialist …
I’ve picked off a few good results from the Cambridgeshire in the past and hope to this weekend. But I will remember this race forever for a disaster I had in 2011. Perhaps appropriate given the Betfair outage earlier this week, which I doubt that will be repeated. But is right at the forefront of my mind as I approach the big race tomorrow.
Back in 2011 as we approached the key race of the day people started posting …
Since 1868 Laytown has hosted the annual race meeting like no other. With no formal race course to host the equine competitors, these horses are raced on the beach. Laytown catches the attention of wide range of racing and non-racing goers each year.
Quite a few years ago I was captivated by the sight of horses running on the beach. It just seemed a bit different and interesting. So I set my sights on visiting this very unique …
Today we had a meeting at Salisbury, that’s not unusual in the summer. But the last meeting has some significance for me.
The reason that race is important to me is that way back in 2003 Betfair published information on a specific race. The information published, which was available in the public domain, was the feature race at Salisbury on that particular day.
The reason for the importance
The reason the race was so important was that Betfair went full disclosure …
How I learnt to trade Tennis
When I first started to trade Tennis, I needed a few things to be in place. One of those was an understanding of how odds move in Tennis match.
The reasoning was that if I knew that, I could pitch my opening and closing trades roughly where I wanted, where the market would move to. I could also start searching for ‘precursors’ to that key point in the match.
Also, with so many matches …
It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day. Then as we drift into the late afternoon, the US Open tennis gets underway. Not exactly a relaxing Bank Holiday!
Today there will be 483 runners over 51 races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, …
I made a post on social media this week about an article that appeared in the Financial Times. I didn’t realise at the time of posting, that in the background there was a mention of a sizeable position then went through the market at Royal Ascot.
I only realised this, when people started questioning it shortly after the post. Asking how it was possible put £125k through a market?
Ordinary or extraordinary?
This wasn’t an ordinary market, though, this was Royal …
Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week.
The Ebor meeting can yield some good results, but nothing is ever guaranteed and this meeting can be a bit random at times so it’s probably not going to be all plain sailing. It should be better than what we have been seeing recently, though.
Something snatched my curiosity many years ago about trading the evening racing during the summer.
It always seemed pretty anomalous to me, but I would always feel that I would do well on a Monday evening, But Tuesdays would often be terrible. The rest of the week would vary depending upon the type of races and courses where the evening racing was being held.
Closer examination showed that Windsor was producing consistently above average results. So I came up …
If you are looking at learning to trade, here is a way to get a really good start onto the first step of the trading ladder.
If you are coming from a gambling background, from matched betting or you are just intrigued by trading on sports. We can give you improved confidence in your initial trading journey by teaching you how to trade on Betfair. We’ve created a course that will do that perfectly for you.
You will get the software, …
As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?
The defining characteristic
As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite …
Now the football has started again, here is an insight into how I approach the whole season.
During off season I am most active on research and new information for the next season. I gather a huge amount of data during the season and during the off-season I analyse it to take ideas forward to the next season. Same story this year.
I started analysing football matches in the 80’s, so I tend to focus on very specific problems …
How would you like some free money? A couple of clicks and you have instant profit on your screen (but maybe not your account!)
In an outright market than can only be one winner. That is why, if you add up all the odds and percentages, the market will settle on a book value of 100%. If you can lay above 100% then effectively your payout is only 100% but your profit will be anything above that.
If you …
Always looking to take your trading further forward, we are pleased to announce a new version of Bet Angel.
You can download it from here: –
The new version of Bet Angel is available for free to any existing users or trialists.
Key new features in this version
The main feature of this version is the introduction of Automation Signals giving automation a huge amount of new flexibility and control. It opens the door to many new possibilities. (For the …
The ‘fourth major’ starts today in the US and should provide some opportunities. That said, I temper my enthusiasm as the Golf season wears on as history has shown that I do worse at each major as the year progresses. I don’t know exactly why that is, but I suspect as form lines get stronger, opportunities weaken.
The US PGA at first tee last year turned over £5m.
Some of the stats I’ve used here have come from the excellent Golf Stats …
From a trading perspective I like multi day high quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to the month.
As you may know, these higher quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly. But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very differently. Goodwood benefits from decent volume but it’s not as much as some major meetings. …
An old phrase, but one that is equally applicable to trading at this time of year. As we are now in peak trading season, it’s time to harvest!
All about the execution
At this time of year, you have many opportunities, so I will stretch every sinew to do as much as I can. Everything else has to take a back seat, I’ll be a little less active on the blogging, fewer education events, less time for chit chat or …
OK, for years the exchange mechanism has provided a very useful pricing mechanism. A careful aggregation of demand between people competing on a level playing field and it has provided a beautiful insight into the way free markets can work to mysteriously, accurately, price an event – in this case the prediction that something will win a sports event.
But we have been watching closely as the market has gradually decoupled from it’s long established core. What do we mean …
The British Open is different from other majors in that it is played on rotation schedule across a number of ‘links’ courses in the UK. Links courses are traditionally near the sea, are near or on dunes, have an uneven surface and a sandy soil. This is in stark contrast to a lot of ‘modern’ courses which are often set in parkland or woods and carefully manicured.
Weather and links golf
Links golf is very different from traditional golf in that it’s …
We had an interesting mix of sport at the weekend. As I suggested, I had a full blooded session on Saturday, but didn’t little on Sunday and choose to enjoy the sport instead.
In a previous post I talked about the ‘losers game‘, we saw some this weekend.
Win by not losing and win by winning
A triad of interesting sport awaited on Sunday. First up the British Grand Prix, definitely a case of playing the losers game. …
After a really successful week, I’m ducking out of trading seriously today to watch some sport and do a few other things. I can’t rule out doing something at some point, the temptation can be great, but I’ll endeavour not to do much. I may trade the Euro 2016 final pre-off.
British Grand Prix stats
The British GP is curious in that, for a non-street circuit, the average outcome is quite variable from Grid to Finish. It’s the least certain race …
When you read that statement it looks a little strange. How can one point be worth more than another? But statistics seem to show that’s true. With Murray about to line up against a big server in the Wimbledon final tomorrow lets look at the perfect serve.
Wimbledon is the home of mighty servers, with alternate big servers booming the ball past their opponent. But what effect does it have? Some, it appears.
Over the last couple of years, …
If you have been active on Wimbledon these past two weeks you would have seen some great matches. But you should have also seen something else, maybe without realising it.
Often you see an outsider really battle away at a heavy odds on favourite, maybe even winning the first set, but despite this, their odds don’t seem to come in that much. Why is that?
What’s the point?
The first thing to note is there are a lot of points …
Surface problems aside, the main news from Wimbledon so far was the shock’ defeat of Novak Djokovic.
Of course things are very easy in hindsight. But that said, short priced players are easily opposed when trading, more on that in a second . The thing that is surprising in these cases is to see somebody who traded near 1.01 before the off losing. That’s rare, but certainly not impossible.
1.01 Losers in Tennis
I shuffled through one of my database of matches and found 442 matches …
It doesn’t happen often, but now and again all things conspire to produce a dead zone in the markets. For racing, we are currently in that dead zone.
Why does it happen?
Racing markets are seasonal and peak and trough around major meetings. The last was, obviously, Ascot. So you can get a trough before a major meeting, but you almost certainly get one after it.
Summer racing can be a bit weak as there are more meetings and the …
I’m pleased to see the 2nd round has just finished, on the first Saturday! So there is lot of Tennis to cram in on the 2nd week, starting today!
How I learnt to trade Tennis
When I first started to trade Tennis, I needed a few things to be in place. One of those was an understanding of how odds move in match. If I knew that, I could pitch my opening and closing trades just where I wanted. I could also …
As we move into the knockout stage, let’s review what’s happened in the Euro’s so far from a market perspective.
The first thing to note is that the volumes are down a fair bit from Euro 2012 on Betfair. In 2012 in the group stages the lowest turnover match was £7.7m before the off and £17.8m at the end of the match. This year it was a paltry £1.6m and £3.3m, slightly lower than in 2012! I think it’s best …
And so here we are another year, another Ascot.
Ascot is obviously a big deal and, generally, I target it to be at least the second biggest week of the year. I’ll look to do more in a week than I can normally do in a month, so it’s a significant meeting. Wall to wall, quality racing, from Tuesday till Saturday. You also get the added bonus of lots of drunk people places bets on horses because they like the name 🙂
I was at a meeting last week and was at pains to point out the difference between volume and liquidity. I’ll save the detail for another post at some point in the future, but here is a simple view and some examples, using just £100 stakes.
If you come on any of the courses we run, I’m happy to talk you through the strategy. It’s simple easy and really effective at tournaments like Euro 2016.
Stuffed full of cash…