Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

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Manic Monday

Manic Monday

It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings  a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day. Then as we drift into the late afternoon, the US Open tennis gets underway. Not exactly a relaxing Bank Holiday!

Today there will be 483 runners over 51 races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, …

29/08/2016 | By | Reply More
Loadsamoney

Loadsamoney

I made a post on social media this week about an article that appeared in the Financial Times. I didn’t realise at the time of posting, that in the background there was a mention of a sizeable position then went through the market at Royal Ascot.

I only realised this, when people started questioning it shortly after the post. Asking how it was possible put £125k through a market?

Ordinary or extraordinary?

This wasn’t an ordinary market, though, this was Royal …

28/08/2016 | By | Reply More
Ebor or Ebore?

Ebor or Ebore?

Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week.

The Ebor meeting can yield some good results, but nothing is ever guaranteed and this meeting can be a bit random at times so it’s probably not going to be all plain sailing. It should be better than what we have been seeing recently, though.

Traditionally,

17/08/2016 | By | 2 Replies More
Why Monday’s evenings are great markets

Why Monday’s evenings are great markets

Something snatched my curiosity many years ago about trading the evening racing during the summer.

Anomaly

It always seemed pretty anomalous to me, but I would always feel that I would do well on a Monday evening, But Tuesdays would often be terrible. The rest of the week would vary depending upon the type of races and courses where the evening racing was being held.

Closer examination showed that Windsor was producing consistently above average results. So I came up …

16/08/2016 | By | Reply More
New training course – Learn to trade on Betfair

New training course – Learn to trade on Betfair

Preamble

If you are looking at learning to trade, here is a way to get a really good start onto the first step of the trading ladder.

If you are coming from a gambling background, from matched betting or you are just intrigued by trading on sports. We can give you improved confidence in your initial trading journey by teaching you how to trade on Betfair. We’ve created a course that will do that perfectly for you.

You will get the software, …

13/08/2016 | By | Reply More
How to win the Premier League

How to win the Premier League

As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?

The defining characteristic

As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite

12/08/2016 | By | Reply More
The footy season – My general approach

The footy season – My general approach

Now the football has started again, here is an insight into how I approach the whole season.

Off-season

During off season I am most active on research and new information for the next season. I gather a huge amount of data during the season and during the off-season I analyse it to take ideas forward to the next season. Same story this year.

I started analysing football matches in the 80’s, so I tend to focus on very specific problems …

11/08/2016 | By | Reply More
False markets

False markets

How would you like some free money? A couple of clicks and you have instant profit on your screen (but maybe not your account!)

Book percentages

In an outright market than can only be one winner. That is why, if you add up all the odds and percentages, the market will settle on a book value of 100%. If you can lay above 100% then effectively your payout is only 100% but your profit will be anything above that.

If you …

06/08/2016 | By | Reply More
New Version of Bet Angel Professional

New Version of Bet Angel Professional

Always looking to take your trading further forward, we are pleased to announce a new version of Bet Angel.

You can download it from here: –

http://www.betangel.com/download/?product=BetAngelPro

The new version of Bet Angel is available for free to any existing users or trialists.

Key new features in this version

The main feature of this version is the introduction of Automation Signals giving automation a huge amount of new flexibility and control. It opens the door to many new possibilities. (For the …

03/08/2016 | By | Reply More
US PGA Golf

US PGA Golf

The ‘fourth major’ starts today in the US and should provide some opportunities. That said, I temper my enthusiasm as the Golf season wears on as history has shown that I do worse at each major as the year progresses. I don’t know exactly why that is, but I suspect as form lines get stronger, opportunities weaken.

The US PGA at first tee last year turned over £5m.

Some of the stats I’ve used here have come from the excellent Golf Stats

28/07/2016 | By | Reply More
Trading Good-Way

Trading Good-Way

From a trading perspective I like multi day high quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to the month.

Goodwood

As you may know, these higher quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly. But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very differently. Goodwood benefits from decent volume but it’s not as much as some major meetings. …

25/07/2016 | By | Reply More
Making hay while the sun shines

Making hay while the sun shines

An old phrase, but one that is equally applicable to trading at this time of year. As we are now in peak trading season, it’s time to harvest!

All about the execution

At this time of year, you have many opportunities, so I will stretch every sinew to do as much as I can. Everything else has to take a back seat, I’ll be a little less active on the blogging, fewer education events, less time for chit chat or …

17/07/2016 | By | Reply More
Do Betfair markets reflect true opinion?

Do Betfair markets reflect true opinion?

OK, for years the exchange mechanism has provided a very useful pricing mechanism. A careful aggregation of demand between people competing on a level playing field and it has provided a beautiful insight into the way free markets can work to mysteriously, accurately, price an event –  in this case the prediction that something will win a sports event.

Changes

But we have been watching closely as the market has gradually decoupled from it’s long established core. What do we mean …

15/07/2016 | By | Reply More
Trading the Open Golf

Trading the Open Golf

The British Open is different from other majors in that it is played on rotation schedule across a number of ‘links’ courses in the UK. Links courses are traditionally near the sea, are near or on dunes, have an uneven surface and a sandy soil. This is in stark contrast to a lot of ‘modern’ courses which are often set in parkland or woods and carefully manicured.

Weather and links golf

Links golf is very different from traditional golf in that it’s …

13/07/2016 | By | Reply More
The losers game in action

The losers game in action

We had an interesting mix of sport at the weekend. As I suggested, I had a full blooded session on Saturday, but didn’t little on Sunday and choose to enjoy the sport instead.

In a previous post I talked about the ‘losers game‘, we saw some this weekend.

Win by not losing and win by winning

A triad of interesting sport awaited on Sunday. First up the British Grand Prix, definitely a case of playing the losers game. …

11/07/2016 | By | Reply More
British Grand Prix

British Grand Prix

After a really  successful week, I’m ducking out of trading seriously today to watch some sport and do a few other things. I can’t rule out doing something at some point, the temptation can be great, but I’ll endeavour not to do much. I may trade the Euro 2016 final pre-off.

British Grand Prix stats

The British GP is curious in that, for a non-street circuit, the average outcome is quite variable from Grid to Finish. It’s the least certain race

10/07/2016 | By | Reply More
An Ace is worth more than a point

An Ace is worth more than a point

When you read that statement it looks a little strange. How can one point be worth more than another? But statistics seem to show that’s true. With Murray about to line up against a big server in the Wimbledon final tomorrow lets look at the perfect serve.

Wimbledon

Wimbledon is the home of mighty servers, with alternate big servers booming the ball past their opponent. But what effect does it have? Some, it appears.

Over the last couple of years, …

09/07/2016 | By | Reply More
The thin line between individual skill in Tennis

The thin line between individual skill in Tennis

If you have been active on Wimbledon these past two weeks you would have seen some great matches. But you should have also seen something else, maybe without realising it.

Often you see an outsider really battle away at a heavy odds on favourite, maybe even winning the first set, but despite this, their odds don’t seem to come in that much. Why is that?

What’s the point?

The first thing to note is there are a lot of points …

08/07/2016 | By | Reply More
Can you predict 1.01 defeats in Tennis?

Can you predict 1.01 defeats in Tennis?

Surface problems aside, the main news from Wimbledon so far was the shock’ defeat of Novak Djokovic.

Of course things are very easy in hindsight. But that said, short priced players are easily opposed when trading, more on that in a second . The thing that is surprising in these cases is to see somebody who traded near 1.01 before the off losing. That’s rare, but certainly not impossible.

1.01 Losers in Tennis

I shuffled through one of my database of matches and found 442 matches …

05/07/2016 | By | Reply More
Trading the dead zone

Trading the dead zone

It doesn’t happen often, but now and again all things conspire to produce a dead zone in the markets. For racing, we are currently in that dead zone.

Why does it happen?

Racing markets are seasonal and peak and trough around major meetings. The last was, obviously, Ascot. So you can get a trough before a major meeting, but you almost certainly get one after it.

Summer racing can be a bit weak as there are more meetings and the …

04/07/2016 | By | Reply More
Making mincemeat of Strawberries and cream

Making mincemeat of Strawberries and cream

I’m pleased to see the 2nd round has just finished, on the first Saturday! So there is lot of Tennis to cram in on the 2nd week, starting today!

How I learnt to trade Tennis

When I first started to trade Tennis, I needed a few things to be in place. One of those was an understanding of how odds move in match. If I knew that, I could pitch my opening and closing trades just where I wanted. I could also

03/07/2016 | By | Reply More
What’s working in Euro 2016

What’s working in Euro 2016

As we move into the knockout stage, let’s review what’s happened in the Euro’s so far from a market perspective.

Turnover

The first thing to note is that the volumes are down a fair bit from Euro 2012 on Betfair. In 2012 in the group stages the lowest turnover match was £7.7m before the off and £17.8m at the end of the match. This year it was a paltry £1.6m and £3.3m, slightly lower than in 2012! I think it’s best …

25/06/2016 | By | Reply More
Trading Royal Ascot

Trading Royal Ascot

And so here we are another year, another Ascot.

Ascot is obviously a big deal and, generally, I target it to be at least the second biggest week of the year. I’ll look to do more in a week than I can normally do in a month, so it’s a significant meeting. Wall to wall, quality racing, from Tuesday till Saturday. You also get the added bonus of lots of drunk people places bets on horses because they like the name 🙂

But

13/06/2016 | By | Reply More
Volume is not liquidity

Volume is not liquidity

I was at a meeting last week and was at pains to point out the difference between volume and liquidity. I’ll save the detail for another post at some point in the future, but here is a simple view and some examples, using just £100 stakes.

If you come on any of the courses we run, I’m happy to talk you through the strategy. It’s simple easy and really effective at tournaments like Euro 2016.

Stuffed full of cash

12/06/2016 | By | Reply More
Are England just unlucky? No!

Are England just unlucky? No!

When brushing up for the Euro’s I had a good look at prior records to see if there were any trends. One of things that stood out was England’s terrible opening game record.

Since this Euro’s started in 1960 England have never won their opening game, a proud record that was upheld yesterday. So in 15 competitions spanning 52 years. It will be at least 56 years before England win their opening game of the tournament, possibly more. An amazing record, …

12/06/2016 | By | Reply More
Deep breath

Deep breath

Here we go, summer starts right here!

I must admit to being a bit tired already, which isn’t great planning. But from this point on we have a really busy schedule ahead of us starting tonight. It’s the same every other year. Major footy championship, Ascot, Wimbledon, Cricket and half a dozen other sporting events combine to produce a smorgasbord of opportunity.

Over the next few weeks, you can trade very high quality and high liquidity markets in quick succession in a …

10/06/2016 | By | Reply More
The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

So today we reach the Oaks and tomorrow the Derby, when the summer racing really starts to step  up a gear. The start of June means Royal Ascot is just around the corner.

If you are a Betfair newbie you may not know that the Oaks at Epsom was Betfair’s first market way back when they started in June 2000. But it was a little later that year, on June 11th. Mark Davis reminisced on his blog about it. I …

03/06/2016 | By | Reply More
One Bank Holiday you may want to trade

One Bank Holiday you may want to trade

Bank holidays can be a bit of mare. Four billion horses, racing over a thousand meetings. OK, A slight exaggeration there, but you get the picture. Too much racing, too many courses, not enough quality and everything falling over itself.

But today that actually isn’t the case and generally isn’t on this holiday. We have a lot of runners and they are spread many races, but the card is lined up well. That means, even allowing for later starts, it’s unlikely that …

30/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Monaco Grand Prix

Monaco Grand Prix

The Gym I belong to had a new joiner that I started speaking to last year, he is an ex-racing driver. He has given me some valuable insight into the racing world from behind the wheel!  He told me Hamilton would struggle this year and that Red Bull stood a good chance of pole position at Monaco. I’m all ears now when I chat to him now!!!

For a view of the race from behind a spreadsheet, read on…

You

29/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Tennis vs Football

Tennis vs Football

Some of the overriding factors in trading are opportunity, position placement and money management. Get any of these out of kilter and your trading strategy goes up in smoke.

Let’s look at Tennis and Football to understand what I mean.

Skill differences are slight across a lot of sport, but have you noticed how there can be some wildly uncompetitive matches in Tennis but in Football the opponents always seem to have a chance?

Football

Football is a game dominated by two factors. One …

28/05/2016 | By | Reply More
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