Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

rss feed Facebook Twitter YouTube

What’s working in Euro 2016

What’s working in Euro 2016

As we move into the knockout stage, let’s review what’s happened in the Euro’s so far from a market perspective.

Turnover

The first thing to note is that the volumes are down a fair bit from Euro 2012 on Betfair. In 2012 in the group stages the lowest turnover match was £7.7m before the off and £17.8m at the end of the match. This year it was a paltry £1.6m and £3.3m, slightly lower than in 2012! I think it’s best …

25/06/2016 | By | Reply More
Trading Royal Ascot

Trading Royal Ascot

And so here we are another year, another Ascot.

Ascot is obviously a big deal and, generally, I target it to be at least the second biggest week of the year. I’ll look to do more in a week than I can normally do in a month, so it’s a significant meeting. Wall to wall, quality racing, from Tuesday till Saturday. You also get the added bonus of lots of drunk people places bets on horses because they like the name 🙂

But

13/06/2016 | By | Reply More
Volume is not liquidity

Volume is not liquidity

I was at a meeting last week and was at pains to point out the difference between volume and liquidity. I’ll save the detail for another post at some point in the future, but here is a simple view and some examples, using just £100 stakes.

If you come on any of the courses we run, I’m happy to talk you through the strategy. It’s simple easy and really effective at tournaments like Euro 2016.

Stuffed full of cash

12/06/2016 | By | Reply More
Are England just unlucky? No!

Are England just unlucky? No!

When brushing up for the Euro’s I had a good look at prior records to see if there were any trends. One of things that stood out was England’s terrible opening game record.

Since this Euro’s started in 1960 England have never won their opening game, a proud record that was upheld yesterday. So in 15 competitions spanning 52 years. It will be at least 56 years before England win their opening game of the tournament, possibly more. An amazing record, …

12/06/2016 | By | Reply More
Deep breath

Deep breath

Here we go, summer starts right here!

I must admit to being a bit tired already, which isn’t great planning. But from this point on we have a really busy schedule ahead of us starting tonight. It’s the same every other year. Major footy championship, Ascot, Wimbledon, Cricket and half a dozen other sporting events combine to produce a smorgasbord of opportunity.

Over the next few weeks, you can trade very high quality and high liquidity markets in quick succession in a …

10/06/2016 | By | Reply More
The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

So today we reach the Oaks and tomorrow the Derby, when the summer racing really starts to step  up a gear. The start of June means Royal Ascot is just around the corner.

If you are a Betfair newbie you may not know that the Oaks at Epsom was Betfair’s first market way back when they started in June 2000. But it was a little later that year, on June 11th. Mark Davis reminisced on his blog about it. I …

03/06/2016 | By | Reply More
One Bank Holiday you may want to trade

One Bank Holiday you may want to trade

Bank holidays can be a bit of mare. Four billion horses, racing over a thousand meetings. OK, A slight exaggeration there, but you get the picture. Too much racing, too many courses, not enough quality and everything falling over itself.

But today that actually isn’t the case and generally isn’t on this holiday. We have a lot of runners and they are spread many races, but the card is lined up well. That means, even allowing for later starts, it’s unlikely that …

30/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Monaco Grand Prix

Monaco Grand Prix

The Gym I belong to had a new joiner that I started speaking to last year, he is an ex-racing driver. He has given me some valuable insight into the racing world from behind the wheel!  He told me Hamilton would struggle this year and that Red Bull stood a good chance of pole position at Monaco. I’m all ears now when I chat to him now!!!

For a view of the race from behind a spreadsheet, read on…

You

29/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Tennis vs Football

Tennis vs Football

Some of the overriding factors in trading are opportunity, position placement and money management. Get any of these out of kilter and your trading strategy goes up in smoke.

Let’s look at Tennis and Football to understand what I mean.

Skill differences are slight across a lot of sport, but have you noticed how there can be some wildly uncompetitive matches in Tennis but in Football the opponents always seem to have a chance?

Football

Football is a game dominated by two factors. One …

28/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Two card Tuedays

Two card Tuedays

We have reached the time of year when Monday and Tuesday racing drops to two cards in the afternoon.

It’s an important time of year, as this changes the characteristic of these cards to the negative. But also it allows you to do a few other things and skip these cards if needed. Racing tends to be lower quality on a Monday and Tuesday and that combined with the 15 minute gaps in-between the cards leads to much poorer market conditions …

24/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Interesting statistics for the FA Cup Fi-nil

Interesting statistics for the FA Cup Fi-nil

So the FA Cup final is upon us and, rather predictably, the final has delivered us two premiership teams. But what will the match deliver? Is that going to be as predictable as well?

While today’s match may throw off differing characteristics based on what I saw of Palace last weekend, I’ve delved back over a number of years to see if I can unlock some prevailing trends.

History has shown us, the FA Cup is no particular respecter of …

21/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Last match could be the most interesting

Last match could be the most interesting

If you keep your eyes open, opportunities can occur from the strangest of circumstances.

On Sunday May 15th, 2016 we faced an interesting final day in the English Premiership season. The title and relegation battles had already been settled. But there was still the qualification for European competition to decide.

Qualification

Most of the focus was on Man City, Man Utd, West Ham, Southampton and Liverpool. Some could qualify for Champions league football, some for Europa league football.

You also had …

17/05/2016 | By | Reply More
York Dante Meeting

York Dante Meeting

After a successful Chester meeting we roll onto York for the Dante meeting this week.

The York card looks good with plenty of group racing, but the other stuff on the card today looks a little ‘testing’. For a direct comparison look at the prize money. Kempton has a grand total of £18.4k, York £191.5k. I’ll be cautious and use small stakes at the smaller meetings as a result.

As we move through the early part of the flat turf season, the

11/05/2016 | By | Reply More
The losers game

The losers game

Ever felt like somebody is deliberately trying to coax you into a mistake when you trade?

When I first started trading

When I first started trading I wasn’t sure why the market did what it did, but my response to this was was quite simple and something I have always done in any market I have participated in. I started keeping detailed records of everything I did.

That sounds incredibly dull and uninteresting, but it’s actually the core of any …

09/05/2016 | By More
Trading Horse Racing – Workshop

Trading Horse Racing – Workshop

Why trade horse racing?

Trading horse racing markets pre-off is big business. In 2015 just short of £9bn was matched on horse racing before a single stride in the race had been completed.

That’s more than twice as much as football and nine times the same amount that is matched on Tennis. Racing is the biggest pre-off market on Betfair and provides some unique trading opportunities.

As I write this, today there are eight race meetings, with a total of 50 races across …

06/05/2016 | By | 6 Replies More
New version of Bet Angel released

New version of Bet Angel released

Constantly striving to improve your trading edge, we are pleased to announce a new version of Bet Angel is available, version 1.43. You can download it from here: –

You can download it from here: –

http://www.betangel.com/download/?product=BetAngelPro

The upgrade is free for existing Bet Angel users or those currently trialling Bet Angel. If you haven’t had a trial recently you may be eligible for a new one. Bet Angel will tell you if you qualify when you try and register …

05/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Chester May Festival

Chester May Festival

Chester May festival starts today and it’s a welcome addition to the card, but based upon previous years it’s nothing amazing from a trading viewpoint.

Obviously we all love some extra liquidity that the quality racing will bring, but it’s never been a meeting that I’ve got really good amounts from. By that I mean I’m not banging in three figure results a race. Just the odd one or two a day. The thing to note about Chester is its

04/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Manic Monday

Manic Monday

It’s one of a handful of manic trading sessions you see during the year today.

There are 620 runners on the card today and 54 races. Sounds like heaven, but it can be hell. The markets are just often not strong enough to do anything with. You often get a lot of donkeys out and therefore you end up with some competitive handicaps at the lower end of the scale, but little money and little time to trade them.

If …

02/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Will Leicester really stuff the bookies?

Will Leicester really stuff the bookies?

Lot’s of PR, sorry, I mean talk, from the bookies recently about how much they will pay out if Leicester win the title. But is that a reality?

My worst bet ever!

Here is a confession – I will lose money if, when, Leicester win the title. But I have to say it will be one of the most enjoyable losses of my career! Why, because it’s great to see a competitive season in the premiership. As a supporter of

28/04/2016 | By | Reply More
Good Luck to all runners today

Good Luck to all runners today

If you are running the London marathon today then, I’m jealous! But I’d like to wish you the best of luck and hope you have a really good run.

If I can stay injury free for a few years I may try once more, but I’m getting old and decrepit; so it gets less likely each year. Nothing’s impossible though as I could always enter the wheelchair race! I was a good 1/2 marathon runner, but couldn’t transfer that form to the

24/04/2016 | By | Reply More
Betfair exchange advertising

Betfair exchange advertising

Great news, Betfair are going to start pushing the exchange again. I can’t remember the last time I saw an exchange advert so it was a delight to discover they are going to give it a push this weekend!

Here is one of the adverts posted on their You Tube channel: –

22/04/2016 | By | 1 Reply More
How evening racing is different

How evening racing is different

We have now started the evening racing in earnest and it won’t stop till the end of August. So you have four months to make hay while the sun shines, not forgetting we are in the England, so it won’t shine much.

However, there are at least four different states that you see in racing during this period.

(1) Afternoon racing

This tends to me higher quality than the evening racing and will therefore trade differently.

(2) Evening racing

There is

20/04/2016 | By | Reply More
An intriguing prospect

An intriguing prospect

It wasn’t a surprise to see Newbury abandoned yesterday or today. When I went out on my mountain bike it was tough going and getting worse. I immediately felt the meeting was under threat.

It was a surprise however to see the meeting shifted to Chelmsford City! The meeting and the course seem incompatible, but I suppose racing has saved a meeting. I usually find Newbury quite nice to trade and Chelmsford horrible. Chelmsford markets are the most erratic on

16/04/2016 | By | Reply More
A day at the races

A day at the races

After many years sat behind the screen. I’ve been making a conscious effort recently, to actually get out and enjoy some of the hard earned. But also I’ve been keen to experience first hand some of the sporting venues I’ve traded.

This was another year when I declined an invite to the Cheltenham Festival, but I made up for it yesterday by attending the racing there. Judging by the weather I picked the right day! I was quite keen to see

14/04/2016 | By | 1 Reply More
Craven meeting

Craven meeting

We have just started the Craven meeting at Newmarket. With deference to the TV presenter, it’s not named after him but instead an early supporter of Racing at Newmarket. Yesterday we had the Nell Gwyn an interesting character.

How the Craven trades

I prefer to know whether I’m in a good market or a poor one. But the Craven meeting at Newmarket often sits right in-between that. I know there’s quality there, but in terms of liquidity it often

13/04/2016 | By | Reply More
When it’s good to see Red

When it’s good to see Red

European clay court Tennis, Racing at Newmarket, the Grand National behind us; spring is definitely here!

We are now on the cusp of a lot of major sporting action. The Monte Carlo Masters Tennis is a signal to start dusting down things for the French Open. The European clay court season is upon us and it presents us with some decent opportunities. In past years the clay season has all been about the dominance of Rafael Nadal. But times are changing

12/04/2016 | By | Reply More
Aintree Grand National and fallers

Aintree Grand National and fallers

If there is one thing Aintree is known for it is spectacular fallers. In 2011 British racing yielded to public opinion and changed the fences at Aintree. The idea was to stop more fallers and serious injuries to horses. Did that happen? Will it happen? What the key factors behind a faller in a race?

Source data

To answer all the questions I took a look at half a million horses that raced around the various jumps races over the last

09/04/2016 | By | Reply More
US Masters – Trading Golf markets

US Masters – Trading Golf markets

I like the US Masters, mainly because it’s the only major played on the same course each year. This means you can collect a ton of stats on how the course plays. This gives me a good guide as to when to trade in and out of a position. You can do this on most courses, but because the Masters is at the same location every year it is much more predictable.

If you are a golf player, when

06/04/2016 | By | Reply More
The Flat is back

The Flat is back

Today marks the traditional return of the flat turf season. So that means the end of the footy season is near, the Grand National is right upon us and the first Golf Major of the year is also here. Time to really start building up your activity!

The Lincoln has been going since 1859 and this complex handicap is traditional launcher for flat turf racing. There have been some two-year-olds out already, so the flat season has started but this …

02/04/2016 | By | Reply More
Made in Meydan

Made in Meydan

Today sees the worlds richest horse race take place at Meydan, the Dubai world cup.

Over the years I’ve moved from dabbling in the Meydan markets to doing them seriously. They often make for a useful addition on a dull winters day in the UK. Therefore I’d recommend a dabble in these markets if the volume is holding up and there is no clashing with other races. The world cup stands out on it’s own as a race later in the day, so

26/03/2016 | By | Reply More
Hypersmash.com