Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

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Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments

PREVIEW: Arsenal v Man Utd (Sat, 17:30)

The past few years have seen Arsenal fail to perform against the best teams in the league time and again, and their record against Man Utd is no exception. Arsene Wenger’s men have won just one of their last 14 games in all competitions against the …

22/11/2014 | By | Reply More
Trading Schadenfreude

Trading Schadenfreude

Once a year we are treated to the bug ridden spectacle that is ‘I’m a celebrity get me out of here’ or IACGMOOH for short!

I used to be a bit of a sceptical whether you could reliably trade reality TV shows but slowly and surely I’ve come to learn that they actually make good trading fodder. Typically, reality TV shows are very volatile. We have already seen this on the show this year with Gemma Collins freaked out by …

21/11/2014 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments

Scotland v Ireland (Fri 19:45):
Scotland have drawn the first half in six of their last nine matches

Seven of Scotland’s last eight home games have had fewer than three goals

Six of Scotland’s last seven wins have been to nil and five were 1-0 scores

Ireland have lost only two of their

15/11/2014 | By | Reply More
Cheltenham Open meeting

Cheltenham Open meeting

At last, some quality comes back into the jumps season!

With the Cheltenham open this weekend we can look forward to the fact that the festival is only four months away! Hey, you need something to look forward to during the, often bleak, winter season.

The Open is a useful meeting and volumes will be higher than normal so it’s an opportunity to get tucked into some decent markets. This isn’t like the Festival though so you shouldn’t get wildly …

14/11/2014 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments

PREVIEW: Liverpool v Chelsea (Sat, 12:45)

You could argue Liverpool lost the title last season in their games against Chelsea, as the Blues did the double over the Reds having previously failed to beat them in six matches since another double in 2009/10.

Liverpool’s form has been poor this season, with the one

08/11/2014 | By | Reply More
Melbourne Cup meeting  – Day three

Melbourne Cup meeting – Day three

I was going to post up a breakdown of the big day, but the unfortunate circumstances surrounding the post race period put paid to that. Couldn’t bring myself to post enthusiastically about proceedings given that. In case you don’t know what happened the BBC has detailed the unfortunate set of circumstances.

From a trading perspective things went pretty well. I don’t expect to set records on every major race meeting now, due to the time I’ve been in the …

05/11/2014 | By | Reply More
Melbourne Cup

Melbourne Cup

Me and the Melbourne cup go back a few years now. Many moons ago I got interested in the ‘race that stops a nation’ and learned that it really did stop the nation, they have a national holiday today.

So, intrigued, I got up at 4am one dark winter Tuesday to see what all the fuss was about. Nothing really happened apart from a lack of sleep and I returned to bed disappointed. Back then I had converted have the …

03/11/2014 | By | Reply More
Mexico 1 – 0 USA

Mexico 1 – 0 USA

I’ve written about this sort of stuff before on the blog, but given my location at the moment it’s worth visiting it again. I’ve added a video at the bottom to bring home the point a bit more this time.

I would like to trade this week, but I’m going to move location to do it. I’ve shifted out of LA and down the coast to cross the border. It’s only a couple of hours from LA and from San Diego it’s …

03/11/2014 | By | Reply More
Betfair California

Betfair California

As you know I’m in la la land at the moment and it’s actually not the first time I’ve been here. Having worked for a couple of US companies in my time and thanks to my interest in Warren Buffet et al I’ve often popped over here to do something or another most years since the early 90′s.

When Betfair started taking off in the UK I was quite interested in seeing how legislation would play out over here. To …

02/11/2014 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. 

PREVIEW: Man City v Man Utd (Sun, 13:30)

Man City’s run of wins came to an abrupt end last weekend as they lost at West Ham while Man Utd salvaged a point at the death against leaders Chelsea. That late Robin van Persie equaliser did City a huge favour as they avoided

01/11/2014 | By | Reply More
Laying in the sand – Part two – Santa Anita

Laying in the sand – Part two – Santa Anita

So, following on from my trip to Ireland to see Laytown races, I’m now in California and literally laying in the sand.

There are a range of reasons for that, but Santa Anita was another item off the bucket list. I’ve put a load of photos on our Facebook page if you want to see Santa Anita without the crowds.

I always enjoy California. Plenty to do for everybody, the weather is always fantastic and LA bay has miles of …

31/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Holiday booked

Holiday booked

Having worked hard during the summer I’ve been using the time since the end of peak season to catch up on a few must have moments. So this week, until Saturday at least, you wont have me in the markets. I’ve taken care to book my Betfair holiday or else its going to cost me 15,000 points or so!

I hopped on a plane on Sunday and headed out of the country for a short while. I’ll be back trading at …

27/10/2014 | By | Reply More
How extrapolation trips people up when trading

How extrapolation trips people up when trading

A trend is your friend, until the end.

One of the most common mistakes I see in newbies is trend following. Trend following is when you latch on to a pattern and extrapolate it. It could be a horse that is heavily drifting or coming in, perhaps a football team on a great run or form, or a poor one. Perhaps a team has had 20 games under 2.5 goals. Is there a trend, why, or this a natural aberration?…

27/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Sunday Soccer stats

Sunday Soccer stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. 

PREVIEW: Man Utd v Chelsea (Sun, 17:00)

Chelsea remain unbeaten in all competitions this season as their impressive form has seen them move five points clear at the top of the table. Man Utd, meanwhile, are still adapting to life under Louis van Gaal and this is only the second time in …

26/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Using Bet Angel football ratings

Using Bet Angel football ratings

You may have seen me post ratings from time to time and a debate raged on the forum about what exactly I was posting and what was it? So I thought I would take time to explain the rationale behind the ratings. You can find the ratings posted to this thread on a regular basis.

How did the ratings come around

Way back when I was trying to win the football pools I realised I needed to understand how to price …

25/10/2014 | By | Reply More
95% return on stake

95% return on stake

I thought that headline may grab your attention that the screen shot!

Basically it’s an accurate description on what I did last night before the champions league matches started, only I tend to do it on a larger scale and that reduces percentage returns. For this example, which I am documenting in detail for my course, I did it using highly replicable £10 stakes. It would be easy to add a zero to this number. Harder to add two!

Before …

23/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Saturday soccer stats

Saturday soccer stats

Betfair currently have the following football offers available today, click on any of them for full details: -

4/1 Man City to beat Spurs + Money back if you lose8/1 Arsenal, Chelsea and Southampton to win + Money back if you lose5/1 Liverpool to beat QPR + Money back if you lose & for existing Betfair customers 11/2 if Arsenal, Everton and West Ham all win.

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at 

18/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Betfair special offers

Betfair special offers

Here are a couple of decent offers from Betfair if you have never traded before.

If you don’t have a Betfair account there are some decent opening offers. If you have never traded before you can refunds on any losses you make.

No Betfair account – Get a opening bonus!

Betfair currently have the following offers available, click on any of them for full details: -

4/1 Man City to beat Spurs + Money back if you lose

8/1 Arsenal,

18/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Fingers at the ready

Fingers at the ready

After some below par racing recently, we explode into a smorgasbord of quality today. Though in typical racing fashion we have five cards on this afternoon!

Top of the list is Newmarket where prize money totals £668k over 7 races. The return of Cheltenham sees a more modest £67k for their seven races. But the presence of both should make for a decent afternoon of action.

Haydock and Redcar chip in with some lower grade action but some of that

17/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Betfair to broaden cross matching in football markets

Betfair to broaden cross matching in football markets

I’ve been aware for some time, but now it’s official; Betfair are widening the cross matching net to crossover into related markets.

What exactly does this mean?

Betfair have coined the development ‘Cross market liquidity pooling’ and it’s taking place on football. It’s not due till November and will roll out if everything goes ok.

The bottom line is if you place a bet in one market it will appear in another and vice versa. This will have the effect of …

10/10/2014 | By | Reply More
The Bank of England vs San Marino

The Bank of England vs San Marino

The racing looks poor today, so I’ve turned my attention to the Euro qualifiers this evening. But I can’t trade them as I am fulfilling my promise that after a long summer earning some money I’ll use the quieter part of the season to spend it. So this evening I’m taking my son to watch England thump San Marino.

The misery of watching England

When I was young I went on several school trips to Wembley but never saw England …

09/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Traders of the Prix De L’Arc

Traders of the Prix De L’Arc

Once a year I will taste some French racing like a connoisseur tastes French wine, with a sense of appreciation but with the gusto of a true enthusiast.

I don’t tend to trade on Sunday’s, or on French racing; but the richest race in Europe always draws my attention as it and the companion races are nearly always an opportunity. Most of the surrounding card  in the UK is not the greatest quality, so I’ll tend to do some other …

03/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Salisbury

Salisbury

Whenever I see Salisbury on the card it reminds me of a document that Betfair published many moons ago.

I saw Salisbury on the card today and the same bell rang in my head, but also a bit of alarm at the two and three runner races on the card! How poor is that? But back to the main topic.

Back in 2004 Betfair issued a document that actually clearly laid out what a market looked like. In the document

01/10/2014 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. 

PREVIEW: Liverpool v Everton (Sat, 12:45)

The Merseyside Derby kicks off the Premier League weekend and if last season’s meetings are anything to go by we’ll be in for a cracker. Liverpool won this fixture 4-0 back in January while the first derby last season was a 3-3 at Goodison and Sturridge

27/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Trading the Ryder cup

Trading the Ryder cup

Once every two years the sporting world turns its attention to what is turning into a classic sporting Rivalry, the Ryder Cup.

Many years ago it didn’t have anything like the profile it does now. Post war it was a chance of US golfers to show how much better they were than UK players. Then the rules changed to make their opponents UK and Ireland but that was still dominated by the US. Then in 1985 when it became the US …

26/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. 

PREVIEW: AC Milan v Juventus (Sat, 19:45)

Milan and Juventus head into week three occupying the top two spots in the table but they’ve won their matches in highly contrasting fashions. Milan followed an opening 3-1 win over Lazio by beating Parma 5-4 last time out. Juventus, meanwhile, are yet to concede

20/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Part timer

Part timer

I’m back onto Betfair markets properly today. I’m currently taking the opportunity to enjoy the late summer sun. I had my first round of golf for a few years this morning! Having worked hard during the busier periods of the year, I can skip the quieter days at the moment without remotely denting my yearly performance much. Though I did take a look at the champions league last night.

I also nipped in on Sunday to have a pop at the …

17/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Millions by the minute

Millions by the minute

It seems every now and again a trading documentary pops up now and again on the TV. The most recent one aired last night, click on this link to watch it: -

Traders : Millions by the minute

I thought it was entertaining but quite lightweight in the scheme of things. It was curiously positioned as new and exciting but online trading in financial markets has been around for ages. I liked the way they focused on the psychological side of …

16/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Saturday Soccer Stats

Saturday Soccer Stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. 

PREVIEW: Arsenal v Man City (Sat, 12:45)

Arsenal have gone 19 games without defeat at home but this Saturday they face the ultimate test as they host the champions, who have won 10 of their last 16 away games with just one defeat.

It’s matches like these that have proven to be

13/09/2014 | By | Reply More
Trading news flow

Trading news flow

The importance of liquidity

One of the most important aspects of a successful trading market is liquidity. You can enter any market at any price, but sometimes you will want to get out quickly as well. That is why liquidity is important when trading, it gives you control over your position.

Sometimes you can find liquidity markets in the most unusual places, hunting them has become something I enjoy doing. We’re less than a week away from the Scottish vote on …

12/09/2014 | By | Reply More
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