Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

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Trading Good-way

Trading Good-way

From a trading perspective I like multi day high quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to the month.

Goodwood

As you may know these higher quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly. But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very differently. Goodwood benefits from decent volume but it’s not as much as some major meetings. Therefore it …

27/07/2015 | By | Reply More
The rise of football analytics

The rise of football analytics

Back in the late eigthies and early nineties when I was trying to win the football pools, nobody really understood what was going through my head.

Not interested

I remember writing to a football magazine and explaining to them how I carefully mapped out what happens during a match. I carefully laid out an extensive document talking about how the time of the goal influences the outcome of a match and how a red card can significantly alter that match …

26/07/2015 | By | Reply More
My life on the trading desk of a big bookmaker

My life on the trading desk of a big bookmaker

Introduction by Peter

Some one recently joined me in helping prep for the new football season. His former job was on the trading desk at a big bookmaker, I thought it may be interesting for you to hear his story. With ‘Britain at the bookies’ on TV, I think it makes it even more relevant. First we start with some background: -

Life before Betfair

I left school with absolutely no idea of what I wanted to do for a career. …

25/07/2015 | By | Reply More
Ladbrokes and Coral agree £2.3bn merger

Ladbrokes and Coral agree £2.3bn merger

News out this morning that after talks, Coral and Ladbrokes will go ahead with their merger.

To fund the deal Ladbrokes will offer 93 million new shares to investors, representing 10% of the company. Ladbrokes will issue new ordinary shares to existing Coral shareholders representing 48.25% of the enlarged company. Existing Ladbrokes shareholders will then own 51.75% of the enlarged company.

The move will mean that the new company will be bigger than the current incumbent William Hill. In terms of high

24/07/2015 | By | Reply More
Britain at the bookies

Britain at the bookies

Couldn’t help but notice a new TV series on BBC ‘Britain at the bookies’, if you are in the UK you can view it here: -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b063ly3s/britain-at-the-bookies-episode-1

It seemed a pretty fair and balanced first episode comparing life at the head office of a bookie, with the life of a shop and the realities of problem gambling. I think a fair picture was painted.

It was disheartening to see the jobless guy withdraw his benefits check then head straight to

21/07/2015 | By | 2 Replies More
Open golf final round

Open golf final round

Couldn’t help but revisit the stats and check where we stand as we head, finally, into the final round at St’Andrews.

Some key stats: -

  • Average winning score at St’Andrews has been 11 under par, biggest was 19 under, smallest 5 under back in 1970. All recent scores have been much lower, apart from the 6 under in 1995.
  • Average score per round for the Open is 69 to 69.50 per round, basically under 70.
  • The winner has averaged 70.50 at
20/07/2015 | By | Reply More
Betdaq and Irish racing

Betdaq and Irish racing

We have a confluence of opportunity today, but unusually, it will be pronounced on Betdaq.

To understand why we need to look at two factors. Prior to 2008 I wasn’t really active on Betdaq. I took an interest in 2008, but it was pretty quiet. However my hand was forced in 2011, so I started to set about doing something in earnest from that point. Volume, noticeably on horse racing has been rising steadily since then to the point where

18/07/2015 | By | Reply More
Open Golf – Tee time effect

Open Golf – Tee time effect

As expected the Scottish Summer has set in at The Open this morning and badly affected play. The suspension this morning will obviously have an impact as the organiser try and shovel 156 players through the tee and finish before it gets dark.

Keeping an eye on the local weather will give you a clue as to how this will impact players. Obviously if conditions are horrific versus benign much later that’s not going to favour early starters. At golf tournaments I

17/07/2015 | By | Reply More
Open Golf

Open Golf

Golf returns to the home of golf this week. I’m desperate to get to St’Andrews, but will have to wait till it comes back on rotation.

The British Open is different from other majors in that it is played on rotation schedule across a number of ‘links’ courses in the UK. Links courses are traditionally near the sea, are near or on dunes, have an uneven surface and a sandy soil. This is in stark contrast to a lot of ‘modern’ courses

16/07/2015 | By | Reply More
Liquidity at the Open Golf

Liquidity at the Open Golf

The Open is almost upon us and while I realise it’s not a burning question on everybody’s mind, I thought I’d help you find the best time to take a position the market before it starts.

One of the problems with Golf is that early start in the morning. It will be around 06:30 for the Open. That prevents most people getting up early to stick a position on. That more or less includes me. I wasn’t sure though if I

15/07/2015 | By | Reply More
Using Advanced Automation on Bet Angel

Using Advanced Automation on Bet Angel

We receive a lot of requests on how to create rules using our Advanced Automation feature. The creation of a rule is a fairly simple process provided you apply basic logic to it. We always advise clients to write down their requirements in logical statements describing the process. You must bear in mind the software cannot make decisions for itself, you must instruct it what to do and then it will act.

The possibilities are endless but let’s start with

14/07/2015 | By | Reply More
The trading dead zone

The trading dead zone

It doesn’t happen often, but now and again all things conspire to produce a dead zone in the markets. Some are worse than others, but we are in a dead zone at the moment.

First off, this relates to the racing markets. Racing markets are seasonal and peak and trough around major meetings. The last was, obviously, Ascot. So you can get a trough before a major meeting, but you almost certainly get one after it.

Summer racing can be …

08/07/2015 | By | Reply More
7/7 – Why I never turn my phone off, ever….

7/7 – Why I never turn my phone off, ever….

Most people know the significance of this date, but for a small group of traders this date has even more significance.

Our story of this day

It started the same as any other day. I was scheduled to do a talk in central London on guess what, trading on betting exchanges. I took the train in central London, as did my delegates and after switching from overground to underground I remember clearly looking at the clock on the exit at

07/07/2015 | By | Reply More
Tennis trading primer

Tennis trading primer

Just a quick video as we have had a lot of people asking how you trade Tennis. So we have produce just a short primer giving you some ideas and a short discussion on Tennis, we hope it’s useful.

06/07/2015 | By | Reply More
Today could be your independence day

Today could be your independence day

Happy 4th of July to our American users. Hold on we don’t have any (yet)!

But the independence I am talking about takes a slightly different slant anyhow.

When we first designed Bet Angel it was a very simple one click interface. As time evolved we branched the product out to include more and more features, it was a reflection of our journey through the markets.

One of the early features we put into Bet Angel was the link to

04/07/2015 | By | Reply More
Major new release of Bet Angel

Major new release of Bet Angel

It’s Wimbledon and just in time, we are delighted to release another new version of Bet Angel. This version builds on recent releases to expand the scope, scale and capacity of the Tennis live scores feature.

Key changes

Alongside some minor updates, the major component of this release is the ability to trade Tennis automatically from within Bet Angel’s Advanced automation tool. Let me explain and show you how!

01 - Trade the server big screen

Download the latest version (Version 1.41)

First you need to download the …

28/06/2015 | By | Reply More
It’s not just about the big stuff

It’s not just about the big stuff

As Ascot fades into the distance you could be forgiven for waiting for the next big meeting, but it’s a fact that big meetings are the icing on the cake on the racing calendar,  rather than the meat and potatoes.

Around 75% of racing doesn’t not fall in the ‘quality’ category so in fact a lot of the time a professional trader is simply trying to get something out of the market from whatever is around at that moment. In

28/06/2015 | By | Reply More
Early season expectations

Early season expectations

A interesting write up brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.

[Peter - I've also looked into the start of the season for opportunities to lay or back teams with difficult or easy starts. Bournemouth and Norwich have a fair start but descend into some really tough fixtures as the season warms up. You can use this information and the sort of stuff produced

27/06/2015 | By | Reply More
Numis issue sell note on Betfair

Numis issue sell note on Betfair

A few days old but worthy of note. Numis have issued a sell note on Betfair.

I respect Ivor Jones’s opinion on Betfair because he often asks very good questions during the conference calls and has a better handle on the business than most analysts. He also can be objective and I can’t! So it’s worth noting his comments. 

“It is not, in our view, on track for the market dominance which merits “unicorn” status and which appears to us

25/06/2015 | By | Reply More
My Betfair Birthday

My Betfair Birthday

I celebrated my ‘Betfair Birthday’ this week. It’s now been just over FIFTEEN years since I opened my account and started on Betfair. It’s also been a decade since the first version of Bet Angel was released. We are currently on version 1.40 with version 1.41 right around the corner.

When I first started my journey my eldest child was three, she is now eighteen and able to trade herself. I didn’t envisage that when I started! I also didn’t imagine myself still

20/06/2015 | By | Reply More
Punters ask for Moore

Punters ask for Moore

We are all familiar with a gambled horse.

It starts when a horse in a race receives particular attention. Seeing that horse is being backed, other people back it feeling they may be missing out on something. You find that often sets off a gamble as people discount a lot into the movement of the price of the horse as a ‘sign’, usually without any regard for the underlying rationale.

The Partnership gambler

Yesterday we were treated to a different type a

19/06/2015 | By | Reply More
U.S. Open golf

U.S. Open golf

That was a really interesting first day at the U.S. Open golf at Chambers Bay in Washington.

There were lots of complaints by commentators, golfers and traders about the state of the course. It certainly was “challenging”. I figured that a brand-new course may be difficult to trade and that’s exactly what happened. I’ve made a bit of a Horlicks of it and I think I’ll almost certainly face a loss on this tournament. It seems I never really do

19/06/2015 | By | Reply More
Busy, Busy, Busy

Busy, Busy, Busy

Was going to do a full update today with videos but completely manic at the moment with sports,  potential liabilities and profits coming out of my ears this morning. If this were a financial market I think the term they used is ‘fully invested’. I’m sorry I can give you a full update but at least you know when I can’t its because I’m putting my balls on line, just like our customers!

So. a quick appraisal.

Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot is going

18/06/2015 | By | Reply More
Royal Ascot week

Royal Ascot week

And so here we are, another year, another Ascot. That came around quickly didn’t it!

For me, it’s another declined invitation to attend. While that pains me, for the moment I’d still rather be on this side of the desk during one of the busiest weeks of the year. By next year my eldest will probably be in a position to take over! Subject to performance and enthusiasm!

Ascot is obviously a big deal and generally I target it to be at least

14/06/2015 | By | Reply More
BETDAQ Royal Ascot promotion

BETDAQ Royal Ascot promotion

BETDAQ is back with a key promotion at Royal Ascot, well timed if I say so myself!

As I’m sure you’re aware, next week is a huge one for traders with Royal Ascot and the US Open taking place. BETDAQ has traditionally performed well during the big meetings (see the image below), if not better nowadays than Betfair. So it’s an ideal opportunity to give it a try next week. I tend to trade on both exchanges during these key meetings.

Bet Angel

12/06/2015 | By | Reply More
Apophenia

Apophenia

Apophenia is defined as, the “unmotivated seeing of connections” accompanied by a “specific experience of an abnormal meaningfulness”. For the full definition visit the wiki entry: -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

Apophenia has come to imply a universal human tendency to seek patterns in random information, such as gambling or charts. It’s  a flaw that afflicts many.

Apophenia and Gambling

Probably the best known appearance of this in gambling markets is the gamblers fallacy. This is when a long run of results lead gamblers

10/06/2015 | By | Reply More
Champions league final

Champions league final

Another excellent write up brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.

Champions League Final: Juventus v Barcelona (Sat, 19:45)

Saturday evening in Berlin will see what is undoubtedly the showpiece event of this year’s football calendar as Barcelona and Juventus clash having disposed of Bayern Munich and Real Madrid between them in Europe and dominated their respective domestic leagues. Indeed, the aforementioned sides were the front two

06/06/2015 | By | Reply More
Let’s hope the Derby is this exciting

Let’s hope the Derby is this exciting

I’ve taken a diversion from just just posting an image of a result to putting some detail into events at the Oaks today. It was such a fascinating market from beginning to end.

The first thing that happened was ‘Legatissimo’ contracted quite heavily, but the pictures showed that it wasn’t enjoying it’s journey to post, so it looked a obvious lay. Slowly but surely the market reacted to it’s behaviour. This generally got worse till the horse cleared the main crowds when

05/06/2015 | By | Reply More
The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

So today we reach the Oaks and tomorrow the Derby, when the summer racing really starts to step  up a gear. The start of June means Royal Ascot is just around the corner.

If you are a Betfair newbie you may not know that the Oaks at Epsom was Betfair’s first market way back when they started in June 2000. But it was a little later that year, on June 11th. Mark Davis reminisced on his blog about it. I …

05/06/2015 | By | Reply More
Bet Angel for a Apple Mac or an iPhone

Bet Angel for a Apple Mac or an iPhone

We often get queries on whether you can use Bet Angel on a Mac or an iPhone or an Android tablet etc. I have posted up some information in the forum and on You Tube. But I thought I would give a full explanation here so it’s easy to find.

Bet Angel is written specifically for a Microsoft windows platform, but there are many ways in which you can run in on another platform. When we talk specifically about a Mac

03/06/2015 | By | Reply More
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