Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

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York Ebor meeting

York Ebor meeting

Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week. Liquidity is usually quite good at York and I suspect I can get something decent out of some of these races.

Some decent races, some decent horses and a decent meeting should add up to a decent opportunity this week if you are trading.

Anyhow, Good …

20/08/2014 | By | Reply More
Summer has almost gone

Summer has almost gone

Seeing Wolverhampton on the card again made me realise another summer has almost passed into the spreadsheet of history.

One of the realities of sports trading is that summer is peak season across a number of sports for me, so it’s a valuable time to get into top gear. I mourn it’s passing. But my attention will now turn to Tennis for the US Open and back to Football for the winter months. Racing, of course, is an all year …

19/08/2014 | By | Reply More
When to use form and when not

When to use form and when not

Each day I flick through the available sports on offer and have a quick look for anything interesting.

On the racing today something jumped out immediately, Battle group in the 16:00 at Kempton.

Battle group famously refused to race at the Grand National and caused a false start. They restarted, but it didn’t make it past the first fence. Today it is running over 1m4f at Kempton. One look at it’s form and it’s a miserable recent record, three refused …

18/08/2014 | By | Reply More
It’s all kicked off – Saturday soccer stats

It’s all kicked off – Saturday soccer stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. 

As an opening season offer, Football Form Labs are offering discounts of up to 33% or £100 off on our Form Lab products. Scroll down the page to learn more…

PREVIEW: Man Utd v Swansea (Sat, 12:45)

The Premier League kicks off with two teams facing several question marks after their performances last

16/08/2014 | By | Reply More
Betfair exits Australia, but doesn’t

Betfair exits Australia, but doesn’t

After months of speculation and a ducked question on the last conference call, Betfair confirmed this morning that they have exited Australia, but not entirely.

In a press release issued first thing this morning Betfair stated: -

BETFAIR GROUP PLC (“Betfair”) today announces that it has sold its 50% stake in Betfair Australasia Pty Limited (“Betfair Australia”) to joint-venture partner Crown Resorts Limited (“Crown”, ASX: CWN).

Betfair has concurrently entered into an agreement with Crown to continue to provide its

13/08/2014 | By | Reply More
US PGA Day one

US PGA Day one

As predicted Rory got off to a steady start and is only one behind the leaders at Valhalla. But the surprise of the day came from Lee Westwood. If past performance is anything to go by then Westwood will not see this through. I’ve forgotten how many times he has been in contention early on for his first major only for it to slip away. He’s the modern Montgomerie.

Another surprise was the unexpected withdrawal of Matt Kuchar and Jason …

08/08/2014 | By | Reply More
Valhalla beckons, will Rory roar?

Valhalla beckons, will Rory roar?

Some of the stats I’ve used here have come from the excellent Golf Stats website.

The golfing world’s attention now swings, excuse the pun, to Kentucky and to two golfers in particular.

I like competitive golf tournaments where the winner is uncertain but currently, despite Rory McIlroy’s comments, we do appear to be entering a new era in golf. Tiger Woods dominated for a number of years and each tournament would start with him as a clear leader. Thanks to …

06/08/2014 | By | Reply More
Peter’s laying system

Peter’s laying system

Slightly tongue in cheek title – If there’s one mistake I’ve made in my time in the markets it’s not sticking my name on a concept. As a consequence there are a lot of phrases out there that most probably originated from this camp but are now in general use. Therefore I’m probably the ‘hoover’ of the Betfair trading world, the ‘biro’ the ‘sellotape’. To be fair this happens to everybody who is a pioneer so a also tip my hat to the …

06/08/2014 | By | Reply More
Little and often

Little and often

This is a phrase I’ll often quote when advising people on how to trade. I posted up a full list of results from yesterday and it got a fair amount of commentary, because it illustrated exactly that point. More information further down this post.

It’s really nice to bang in some massive results now and again, but generally that’s not what trading is about. Well. not 80% of the time on racing.

Most of the time I’m in a market I’m …

03/08/2014 | By | Reply More
Southampton agree fee for tea lady

Southampton agree fee for tea lady

Quite a few jokes doing the rounds at the unprecedented sale of Southampton players which is attracting a lot of press. But inside the humour and horror (for Southampton fans) some serious lessons for traders. You can profit from the mayhem. But first, anecdotal reflection and another trading lesson.

In 2003 I sat in the Millenium stadium and crowed at how Southampton had finally made it. Seventh in the premier league, FA Cup final and a crop of talented youngsters. Little …

02/08/2014 | By | Reply More
Goodway

Goodway

So Goodwood is underway and it’s performing more or less as I expected and, hopefully, set your expectations at.

In the first two days the biggest race reached £2.2m but the lowest was waaaaaaaaaay off that. Mainly thanks to clashing with other races. Attention is very firmly focused on the feature races and that’s producing the majority of the matched bet turnover so far, helping all markets reach £16m so over the two days. But curiously it doesn’t feel like it’s …

30/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Trading Goodwood

Trading Goodwood

From a trading perspective I like multi day high quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to the month.

As you may know these higher quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly. But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very differently. Goodwood benefits from decent volume but it’s not as much as some major meetings. Therefore …

28/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Gearing up for Goodwood

Gearing up for Goodwood

I’ve been having a quiet week as you can probably tell from various social media bits. After fourteen years on the markets a really busy summer requires an effort to not completely burn out so I’ve been taking it a bit easier. Also my twins turned to teenagers this week, so that’s worth celebrating. You may have noticed that I still can’t resist a rock solid opportunity however!

In the Summer it’s possible to skip some sessions as you know you won’t …

27/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Wonder weather you should trade?

Wonder weather you should trade?

Nice example today of how weather can play a important part in sport.

I’ve mentioned before that Rain in F1 can play an important part in a race. Turning a predictable victory into an unpredictable melee of circumstances.

Today we were presented with that and say the winner market dump odds of 1.51, 1.12 and 2.10. Daniel Ricciardo, who is having a great season, won the race but traded widely at 40′s. Throw into the mix a fast, but …

27/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Pre-season football

Pre-season football

Interested to see the result from Man Utd’s first result under new management!

But….. not much to be read into pre season friendlies TBH. As a manager you are looking at new players, either acquired or coming up through the ranks and assessing things for the next season. Results are not paramount, but injuries are and when I looked into pre-season friendlies a few years ago there seemed to be little correlation to the start of the new season.

What …

24/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Open Golf – Day two

Open Golf – Day two

Two clear leaders at the end of day one. McIlroy’s second round collapse is due to start at 14:27 today!

I’ve posted a list of movers on the forum.

There can be a really complex correlation between tee times and the effect on players who have yet to step onto the course, but this near.y always presents an opportunity. It’s much safer to trade somebody who isn’t playing or who has finished, than somebody that just sent the ball into the …

18/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Open Golf

Open Golf

Curiously, Golf was one of the first markets I bet on Betfair way back in June 2000. But I quickly moved onto other sports before I returned with a vengeance a few years later.

The British Open is different from other majors in that it is played on rotation schedule across a number of ‘links’ courses in the UK. Links courses are traditionally near the sea, are near or on dunes, have an uneven surface and a sandy soil. This is

17/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Did Betfair have a good World Cup?

Did Betfair have a good World Cup?

Now the fuss has died down and the rioting taken place, it’s time to reflect on the World Cup.

From a footy perspective it was great. Much more entertaining than the previous world cups and plenty of talking points. England somehow managed to surpass even their supporters low expectations.

I managed to do a record amount on the World Cup, but that’s surprising as I spent most of last footy season carefully pulling together a number of things to deploy at the …

14/07/2014 | By | Reply More
World Cup Final stats

World Cup Final stats

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.

First off, kudos to Football Form Labs for picking the winner of the World Cup. But hold your horses the match hasn’t started yet? Well it doesn’t matter because they nominated both Argentina and Germany, boom! Well done. So here are their thoughts on the final

Much like when these sides met in …

13/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Newmarket July meeting

Newmarket July meeting

Felt I should comment on the meeting that is taking place at Newmarket this week.

After a fairly long spell of indifferent racing we are treated to some quality for the next three days. So that should bring some focus to your trading. It’s not an amazing meeting but you should be able to dig out a few opportunities. The higher quality stuff should bring some much needed liquidity to the markets.

I’m off to a decent start, so hope …

10/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Das erste Halbfinale

Das erste Halbfinale

I couldn’t talk about the Rio 2014 semi finals without paying homage to Germany’s remarkable record. Forget all the England coaches we have had in the past, why don’t we get a German in charge?

Die BBC hat eine schone Zusammenfassung: -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/28202397

Der letzte “normale” Arbeit, die ich gemeint hatte, arbeitete ich für drei Jahre in Deutschland. So habe ich ein bisschen Deutsch in mir.

Onto the match however. It’s, not surprisingly, being priced as a tight affair with …

08/07/2014 | By | Reply More
British F1 Grand Prix

British F1 Grand Prix

I thought I would be on again for my annual trip with my son to the F1 this weekend. Curiously as I sat in Hospital with him this week, I pondered on the irony of being IN ward F1 instead! Thankfully Luke is back home now.

If you are regular reader of the blog you will know that last year I won a Z4 for the weekend last year to go to Silverstone. I enjoyed driving it so much I didn’t …

06/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Sweet spots

Sweet spots

Every market has a sweet sport. Odds that will be reached more often than others, a score.

This also applies to trading. Depending on how you chose to enter and exit, there is a sweet spot in terms of when it’s best to trade in and out.

When I model a market I’m looking for sweet spots. Optimal places where it makes ‘sense’ to open, close to trade to in a market. At first you can’t do this going forward because …

06/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Neymar out Germany in

Neymar out Germany in

It’s interesting to reflect on my post yesterday when I indicated that backing the winner of the first quarter final may prove fruitful ahead of the second match.

As it turned out there was another reason why this may be the case, but it came from an unexpected source. With Neymar now out of the world cup, Brazil’s chances have been re-assessed. After touching 2.90 they have drifted back to 3.80 and the Germans are into 3.45 from 3.80 …

05/07/2014 | By | Reply More
World Cup Quarter finals

World Cup Quarter finals

What have we learnt so far from the tournament?

Well Brazil are still favourites and Argentina and still second favourites. Germany has moved up a place thanks to the elimination of Spain.

At the start of the tournament the top 16 made up 99.1% of the book. The remaining teams now make up 99.9%, that’s not surprising considering the only remaining bottom half team are the ‘whipping boys’ Costa Rica. It’s amazing to think that Costa Rica were 1000 to win …

04/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Tennis trading

Tennis trading

In my journey to understand Tennis I had to work out how and why the market moved, so it was with that in mind that we created Tennis trader. It allowed us to probe the deepest detail of any Tennis match and set up strategies that would allow us to profit from that. Using Tennis trader you can get an idea of what is required for any strategy to pay off, what risk you are taking and when this will happen. It’s great …

03/07/2014 | By | Reply More
It’s not just about the big stuff

It’s not just about the big stuff

OK, we are in the thick of some major sporting action at the moment. I’m soooo busy it’s difficult to know which way to look at times, but it’s great fun. I apologise if I’ve been a bit quieter recently, but I simply haven’t had the time to devote to updating the blog etc. I’ll be back soon, most likely after Wimbledon has completed.

But it’s important to reflect that it’s not all about the big stuff. Ascot is gone …

01/07/2014 | By | Reply More
Winning and ‘luck’

Winning and ‘luck’

Once you get the winning mentality, it enters your bloodstream and doesn’t leave. But winning and luck isn’t random or down to chance, it is an art that is learned through endless painting of poor pictures, then through rubbing out mistakes and constant revision and practice. A winning mentality and ‘luck’ can be learnt…

This weekend I was invited to a charity ball. People like inviting me because I bid on things!

At the end of the evening I was bestowed with …

29/06/2014 | By | Reply More
Betfair exhibit sense of humour

Betfair exhibit sense of humour

Just took this screen shot to use at the course I’m presenting on Tuesday. Take a look at the top left of the screen!

28-06-2014 - Full P&L - Copy

28/06/2014 | By | Reply More
The (cold hard cash) winners so far in the World Cup

The (cold hard cash) winners so far in the World Cup

OK we know who’s through and who is out, but how has that translated into a profitable strategy so far in the World Cup?

Listed below are the returns to £10 stakes on each team that has qualified for the knock-out part of the tournament. Of course, the best bet of the tournament again was to lay England to do anything reasonably useful. But  in reality, we should have all been on Costa Rica instead. But the returns here show you some scope …

28/06/2014 | By | Reply More
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