June
June was fine, nothing amazing but better than last year. Had some difficult patches, some highlights, but it just sort of happened without anything stunning happening in either direction. I just ground out a result each day.
The whole month got a shot in the arm with the World Cup and Wimbledon, both of which were welcome additions to what was often pretty poor racing. I put some renewed focus into these areas this month. The launch of Tennis trader…
More about penalties
Following the recent chatter on penalties, I note the absence of them so far! Somebody posted on the forum about a very useful tool that you can use.
I didn’t know this existed, so thanks to the poster for finding it. It confirms what I was talking about, but more importantly it could prove very useful if a match goes to penalties. This is because it allows you to examine all previous results from the penalty takers and …
Ouch, that’s embarrassing
I don’t think it needs any more comment really does it? Apparently the English league is the most competitive and highly paid in the world with some of the best individuals. And individuals they will remain!!!
I’ve consoled myself by smashing into a few horse races that followed the match, sorry about that! But one of them was the Irish Derby, too good to miss. Grabbing a few hundred will allow me to drown my sorrows tonight.…
Coin flippers re-union at 3pm
Had a look at THE match stats this morning.
The market has priced in just a shade over two goals for the Germany vs England match. England have a 0.10 goal advantage. The market is pricing in a tight nervous affair where one goal could be enough, but a draw is the most likely result. Obviously if you share two goals amongst two teams then a draw is very likely.
I sense a nervous two hours come 3pm but having …
The maths behind penalities – Part Two
Yesterday we saw that goalkeepers are basically glory seekers, or at least showing that they understand the psychology of failing the right way. Today we give a final answer on what David James should do if faced by a German penalty today.
Often the best way to look at something is to turn it on it’s head. When we looked at penalities we saw that while kicks are randomly distributed, the goalkeepers actions are not. So lets look at when …
The maths behind penalities – Part One
Groups stages, tight games, can’t afford to lose, Germany, England. This must only add up to one thing, penalties!
Are we going to suffer again, will there be the same agony as in prior years? Penalties is another area I have looked at and I think the findings may be of use to any prospective England goalkeeper facing a penalty, football traders may also benefit.
First off, you can reach some easy conclusions. From spot to net, the ball will …
Opportunities
Opportunities are everywhere if you keep your eyes open. I feel I should always be constantly prodding the market to see if I can find new ones. Wimbledon this week has thrown up many, many opportunities but the pleasing thing is that I have found loads of new ones.
When the Isner/Mahut match was drawn at 59-59 I knew I had to do some work to find a way of profiting from the resumption. I’d fiddled around the edges on …
Just incredible
If you read this blog post in time turn your TV / Internet stream to Wimbledon to witness one of the most amazing matches ever in Tennis History. Mahut vs Isner, will it ever end?!?!
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That match
Given the gloom and doom I am almost tempted to back England this evening. But much of that depends on price and what the team looks like when it is announced. The match is priced for 2.56 goals with a 1.60 advantage to England, yeah right! England just haven’t looked a potent threat upfront and I think it’s optimistic to imagine a free flowing high scoring game, lets hope I am wrong!
If you look at the world cup so …
What a start!
Wimbledon got off to an amazing start with a near shock elinimation of Federer. In the last ten years there have been lots of seeds falling early, but never the top seed. Reading from the year 2000 we had ranked players going out in the first round as follows. 7,16,9,2,12,11,6,22,4 and 17. Basically, anything is worth a lay. OK the odds at the off are probably an accurate representation of true chance of winning, but from there anything can happen …
Announcing – Tennis Trader
While there are no English men in the Wimbledon for the fist time in history this year, there will be plenty of traders.
This year you will be able to trade it with complete confidence thanks to a new tool we have created for you, Tennis trader. Whether you are a experienced Tennis trader or not, this unique tool will transform your ability to trade Tennis matches.
The problem with trading any sport is guessing how the odds are likely …
Crianza
I’ve had a few beers on Crianza this evening after it romped home at Redcar today. Nothing remarkable about a horse winning a race, but Crianza came in at odds of 1000 and I had money on.
It’s the second time I have managed this, the last time was on Bermondsey Bob at Salisbury in August 2008. Therefore I assume the mean return time of this sort of thing happening is around once every two years. The funny thing …
Not a joke
Honestly, not a joke; but this is the book I am reading at the moment just before I go to bed. It’s actually a really good read and highly recommended for sports traders!…
1.05 about to be turned over?
Should England pack up and come home? Traded at 1.05 to qualify last night must have those backers quivering. After failing to beat Algeria, which most teams in the English football league could surely achieve, has there ever been a more defining moment in English national football?
For many, many years we have had loads of great individuals but seemingly no team. Last night showed this up in clear light again and surely the time has come to stop picking …
England’s fate already known
When England step out onto the pitch this evening they will know what they need to do. If the USA get a good result against Slovenia, then England really need to dispatch Algeria with confidence. If not it all goes to the last game. I say this because the English will probably want to avoid the impressive Germans. No point in holding out for a draw in the knockout phase is there?
The US are priced at 2.20 goals against …
My journey – Part two
My early foray into Gambling markets was on football pools. I learnt on the football pools that a lot of the money staked had no rationale behind it. People just used birthdays, lucky numbers etc. etc. The football pools was certainly a bit of a lottery, but it was a lottery that offered the chance for somebody using a bit of intelligence to place better positions in the market. With so much ‘dumb’ money around, I thought that in the …
My journey – Part one
To understand where I am today, you need to wind the clock back to my childhood and the spark that created everything.
Many moons ago I was born to a pretty average family. My father was a carpenter and my Mum worked in a petrol station. My family had pretty unspectacular lineage and most of my immediate relatives lived within a few miles radius. I didn’t get the best start in life (that’s another story) but I loved playing sport, …
Ascot
It’s that time of year when the Queen nips out the house and down the road to have a fiver or two on a few nags. I’ll also be looking to put a few fivers on them as well, but from behind my desk. When I’ve finished all my work on betting exchanges, maybe I will nip up the road for once! Ascot has always been a key part of the summer racing and it’s no surprise with five days …
Impossible
During my career I’ve often relished the chance to break new ground in whatever I have been doing. It’s always the voyage and discovery that I enjoy the most, everything else can take a back seat. Breaking new ground, achieving the impossible, charting the unknown or pushing the boundaries is something that I really enjoy. Furthermore, as soon as the word impossible is uttered, it immediately makes me sit up and pay attention.
Last week I achieved something that will …
Betfair signs deal with Samsung
Betfair’s wholly owned subsidiary Betfair TV has signed a pan-European commercial agreement with Korean electronics giant Samsung Electronics, under which the two companies will deploy sports betting and gaming applications on Samsung’s Connected TV platform which is powered by the Yahoo! Widget Engine.
Betfair TV has developed a real-time betting interface that will bring live Betfair betting applications directly to Samsung’s Connected TVs and Samsung Connected Blu-ray Disc Players. The application uses a direct link to the data that drives …
Blunt start by England
In fact, most of the matches have been pretty blunt, which seems to often be the case in the world cup early matches. England had a great chance to really get off to a good start after taking the lead so early, but I don’t feel there were aggressive enough going forward. England now need to convincingly win the next two games or they could end up on the wrong side of the draw.
No doubt the following image will …
USA 1 – 0 England
Not a premonition but a recollection of times gone past. Until England drew the US in the group stages I wasn’t even aware of this episode of sporting history. It seems England have always been under-performers, but perhaps were a bit unlucky on this occasion. You would get 17′s for a repeat performance tonight.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_v_United_States_%281950%29
Ratings for today: -
England vs US – Market is forecasting 2.50 goals with at least 1.70 to England, leaving a paltry 0.30 to the …
Bad light stops fish
A great Tennis trading match today and a classic bit of sportsman ship from Mardy Fish. Fish wins the first set 6-4, Murray storms back to win the next set 6-1. Fish goes three up in the final set, Murray rallies to tie the match at 3-3. With the momentum behind him, Murray feels he can finish Fish off. But Fish does the ‘professional’ thing and ends the match due to ‘bad light’. If Fish was under pressure in that …
Happy 10th Birthday Betfair
It was ten years ago today that Betfair took their first bets. It is amazing to see what has happened in the intervening decade. I joined the fray about 9 days later, I’ll talk more about what happened from there in a few days time. I’ve sent Betfair some personal greetings, I’m interested to see if they reciprocate.…
England lose on penalities
Not a prediction, this happened at the weekend. OK it’s only Soccer Aid, but losing in a penalty shoot out on the Sunday before World Cup week isn’t the best omen is it?
Still at least that’s out of the system, so it can’t happen in the world cup, can it? I can’t figure out why England players in any form can’t win a shoot out. Quite a few years ago I ‘qualified’ for a world cup tournament where I …
Soderling vs Nadal – The ninth game
What’s the significance of the ninth game?
In a competitive final you could expect both players to try and play out of their skin. But, you could also expect that both would try do avoid doing anything stupid in the first set. It’s important to get off to a good start, but it’s equally important not to blow it early on. So a game of cat and mouse, probing your opponent and holding serve, is a quite likely occurance in …
Early start
Had to drop my daughter off to a Girl guiding camp this morning. I looped around, rejoined the M25 and headed up to Epsom for a ‘quick’ meeting. Silly idea really, but I had been invited to the Derby but obviously I need to be on this side of the screen today. I felt an effort to say thanks and acknowledge the offer was due. Traffic was, inevitably, a mare despite getting there early this morning, it was not helped …
Oaks
If you would have asked me what the Oaks were ten years ago, I would have talked to you about what the Victorians planted en masse on the green in the next village on from where I live. Now, my first thought turns to Epsom. How things have changed in ten years.
It was the Oaks that was Betfair’s first market ten years ago, but it was on the 11th June that year, not the 4th. So Betfair are just …
Concern for missing commentator
Anybody who was trading the races at Hexham on Saturday couldn’t have missed that the Dougie Fraser was missing. Good old Matt Chapman had to fill in as best he could from the booth, but by the evening it was clear that something was wrong.
Full story in a lot of newspapers yesterday. I have linked to an article here.…