Archive for category Football / Soccer
Profiting from next manager markets
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer, Trading strategies on February 21st, 2012
Just a couple of weeks ago had a change in the England manager job with Capello walking out. A week later and we had another ‘next manager’ market to deal when Wolves sacked Mick McCarthy. Then Lee Clark is sacked from Huddersfield, Warnock joins Leeds. It sometimes feels like the managerial merry go round will never stop. I’ve actually studied what effect sacking a manager has, but that’s for another post. I think I may have written about it already on the blog?
In the case of the England next manager market it’s really a case of whether you think Mr Redknapp & Spurs will accept the offer that they inevitably will get. It’s a yes or no trade and there appears to be little else on the cards. It’s difficult to look for anything beyond that. There are probably opportunities, but I’ve filed this in the ‘too hard’ tray.
On the Wolves market though there are a plethora of opportunities, with tons of viable names being given an opportunity. Some of these look quite feasible contenders. Of course, there is lots of difference between being a contender, being offered the job and agreeing terms and the Wolves job appears to be playing out in exactly that manner. So what is the best way to trade these markets?
From the brief description I have given you, you can see there are lots of contenders and a fair bit of uncertainty in the market. Therefore I tend to plump for a ‘lay low’ strategy in these circumstances. If you can lay at 3′s and three of the field reach that target price then you are at break even, if more than three contenders come into the frame you move into profit. Lay below threes and you are also in profit. Laying the field is also an option, it’s quick, easy and shifts your focus to how many contenders will appear. Worth a try now and again, especially where there is uncertainty.
Performance anxiety – Why players lose form
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer, General, Psychology on February 19th, 2012
Lovely piece on psychology in the weekend FT. It examines why players of a sport often inexplicably lose their form. I’ve been studying this specifically in a few sports to come up with predictors of decline. My research was sparked by the collapse in form David Duval after he won the British Open golf and I started to dig around deeper and deeper for events that can lead to a decline. I’ve found it useful in Golf and Tennis which are individual sports but less useful in teams sports, where team dynamics and the ability to not play or substitute can diminish it’s potency.
It has been a really interesting area of research, but this sort of analysis gets little coverage or chat. I have also found it applies to people participating in the markets themselves. It’s curious how you can show two people a very clear strategy and yet while one person executes flawlessly, the other just can’t do it. But witnessing that allows me to understand why and suggest corrective action. Curiously, it still sometimes means that people still can’t do it. The reason, performance anxiety. I guess they wouldn’t make good Chelsea strikers!
Read the article here: -
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e7c80640-5788-11e1-869b-00144feabdc0.html
FA Cup Fifth round
Posted by Peter Webb in FA CUP, Football / Soccer on February 18th, 2012
Rather predictably we reach the fifth round of the FA Cup today with 99% of the market made up from Premiership teams. In round three that figure was 94.7% and round four 96.10%. What’s the betting we reach the final with 100%?
The fifth round is more likely to make that happen as there is only one clash this weekend where two premiership teams meet up. I think this looks the most interesting, Sunderland vs Arsenal, as it has the potential to throw up favourable trading circumstances. The others don’t look so great, but Millwall vs Bolton also looks interesting.
It is possible to spot in advance matches that are likely to throw of certain characteristics. Earlier this week I used £10 stakes on the Europa league matches, I did this as preparation for my course next week. Following a simple strategy that relies on cues from the underlying activity in the matches I turned £30 on this £10 exposure.
You can see I traded several matches at once and this is usually a good idea as it will reduce the risk that the one thing you pick is a stinker. When that happens it tends to force the invisible hand of psychology against you. It’s best to avoid that! For this example though I traded all of them to demonstrate that as long as you follow a clear path it’s actually quite difficult not to break even, even when you are not selective. Football is great for this as you load all the matches up in Guardian and manage several things all at once. Give it a try.
Champions league is back
Posted by Peter Webb in Champions league, Football / Soccer on February 14th, 2012
Yippee! Tonight we have the first leg of the knockout phase of the champions league. I am positively moist with excitement! What a horrible clash though, with valentines day! I fear that valentines day will win tonight but the football will win tomorrow.
I’ve been doing a lot of work on pre-off activity on the football recently, I thought I would take a fresh look at things. It’s surprisingly how you uncover new things when you return with fresh eyes. There have been some interesting new observations from unexpected angles, based mainly on work that is spilling over from more work on the pre-off horse racing. I’ve also been looking at the in-play stuff a bit deeper as well and have come up with a nice new model. Now I just have to put it to use.
Tonight I’ll be using some automation to do some work on the markets before the match has started, while I am otherwise engaged. Don’t forget to fire up Soccer Mystic to have a good look at this evenings matches or why not link up some spreadsheets across multiple markets in the same match to come up with a unique view of the market.
Administrators appointed at Portsmouth and Rangers
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer, Trading strategies on February 13th, 2012
The state of football’s finances and excesses was put into the light again today when another two clubs applied for administration orders.
While it’s a difficult time for both clubs, administration is generally done as a last resort and gives the clubs a chance put their affairs into order.
For punters it can be an opportunity. Search for Porstmouth on the blog to see the fun and games I have had in the past with relegation and promotion markets when clubs go into administration. It doesn’t necessarily mean that you have to bet on the mis-fortune of a team but you may find that other teams in the league benefit from others issues.
Celtic must surely win the SPL now if their biggest rival is deducted 10 points. For Pompey its less clear if 10 points would result in relegation. They are currently 10 points clear of the relegation zone. But you have to wonder how much longer Portsmouth FC as a business can continue. It’s had so many owners, been through so much turmoil and been in administration two years in a row, it’s a complete mess. What owner can step up to turn things around?
The administrators are being kept in business
On average.. The essense of value
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer, Psychology, Trading strategies on February 6th, 2012
Let’s start by proposing something simple. If you back or lay something it’s impossible to be right 100% of the time. I think most people will realise that it’s impossible to win every bet you ever placed. Therefore you have to accept that you will place losing bets. If you place losing bets you need your winning bets to cover your losses, that’s the only way to make money in the long term.
To get your an overall profit you need your wins, on average, to exceed your losses. There is the key word, on average.
It’s so easy to look foolish when tipping something up but every tipster knows they can’t win all the time and the recipient of tips should be aware of that also. But if there is logic and method behind the tip then it’s not impossible for you to end up overall on a long sequence of bets or positions in the market. It’s just that you have look at it from a broad viewpoint and that is why I use the term ‘on average’ so often.
If you want a case in point just look at this weekend. Two matches ended 0-0 in the sample I took at the weekend. One had, on average, a good chance of ending 0-0. This was the match between Birmingham and Southampton, which was played in appalling conditions and neither team took many risks and played safe. In contrast you had Middlesbrough vs Crystal palace where shots were flying in left right and centre but somehow none went in. There was a goal line clearance, a terrible miss and a penalty that wasn’t given but turned into a free kick just outside the box.
The second match shouldn’t have ended up 0-0, but it did. However we can console overself that, on average, it wont. Certainly it wont end up 0-0 more often than the first match. But this is only something that will play out over time. As long as you stake with that in mind and expect that you can only work in the realm of ‘on average’ you will do fine. ‘On average’ is the essense of value.
FA Cup – Round four winners
Posted by Peter Webb in FA CUP, Football / Soccer on January 28th, 2012
Rather than a prediction this is a glance back. A look if the ‘romance’ of the FA Cup is still alive.
At the start of the third round, premier league teams made up 93.69% of the market. They now make up 80% of the market, the romance of an outsider winning the cup is still alive it would seem.
However, top flight four teams met each other in round three so we will have to delete these for the purposes of what we are looking at. This deletion meant that the total book value of the remainder was 72.37%. We are now in round four and this percentage has increased to 80.27% a shift of 8% or so. If the book % increases between rounds in your selected group, this means it was sensible to back that group, this is why I deleted those other four. No point in backing a definite loser, of which there would have been two if we included those other two matches.
Basically, it didn’t make sense to lay any premier league teams, only back them to progress in aggregate. This is a fairly typically pattern for the FA Cup, especially in the earlier rounds. The only real hope for smaller clubs is if premier league teams knock each other out of contention and then a smaller club flukes a win. You have to go a looooooooong way back to find a season where a lower league team really had a chance. Millwall did well in 2003/4 thanks to a fortuitous route to the final, and in fact the chance of this increases in each round thanks to the random draw. But eventually they have to overcome much stronger opposition and the differential in strength at the top is wider than ever now. Best return to a level stake between round three and four was Leicester by the way.
While it appears to be a bit of a dream to see a lower league team reach later rounds, at least it’s more likely in the FA Cup. If you play in a seeded tournament, like the Tennis grand slams, the competition is unfairly set up to favour the strongest.
So there is a little romance left in the FA Cup, even if it’s only when you see the balls come out of the bag during the draw.
You only kiss your missis on the lips?
I lost £288k in one night spread-betting
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer, News on January 21st, 2012
On the ‘mad bomber’ thread on the forum there has been some jocular suggestions about who could be the person being such erratic and irregular betting activity. Some have joked it could be a wealthy footballer, after reading this story suddenly that doesn’t look so far fetched!
“FORMER LIVERPOOL AND Manchester City midfielder Dietmar Hamann has revealed how he slipped into problems with drinking and gambling during his final season at Eastlands.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport
In the wrong Kompany!
Posted by Peter Webb in FA CUP, Football / Soccer on January 14th, 2012
There are many cases for backing or laying at 1.02. But last Sunday we had a great example of why you just wouldn’t back at such short odds.
First off lets look at the odds: -
At 1.02 you would return £2 for every £100 staked. If you laid, then the opposing situation is true; you would earn £100 for every £2 lost. At odds of 1.02 the market is telling you there is a 98% of this situation occurring. To get value from this situation you have to know that the event you are betting on will occur over 98% of the time. If you lay then you could concur that the opposing situation should be true, you would only stand a 2% chance of possibly winning anything. But that’s not actually true, thanks to volatility.
Therefore the trick to doing a successful trade is to expose yourself to potential upside at the lowest risk, then wait.
At half time in this match Man Utd were 3-0 up, away from home, in the FA Cup, a player up, in a local Derby. If you were in the dressing room at half time what would you recommend to your players? With a three goal lead and more players you could push on to try and finish the match and risk conceding, but at 3-0 up the match is all but lost by your opponents. Probably best then to try and limit your opponents opportunities, i.e. defend.
If you were Man City would you would probably feel aggrieved with that red card and would be desperate to avoid the sort of humiliation they dished out to their opponents at their ground, but also you would want to get things sorted out pretty sharpish in the second half.
If you backed Man Utd, you would have exposed yourself to 45 minutes of angst. OK they were likely to win but with the normal distribution of a goal well below 45 minutes, especially for the home team, a goal from City was quite likely and the odds would respond. You can use Soccer Mystic to work out upside you have, or how much time you have before your downside completes. If you laid, then it would take some time for the price on Man Utd to sink to 1.01 to Lay, but in that time your would expose yourself to plenty of upside.
Last Sunday it made sense to lay.
Red card, for the ref?
Shocking news
Posted by Peter Webb in FA CUP, Football / Soccer on January 7th, 2012
That’s what the lower league clubs will be hoping for today when they step out for the FA Cup third round today.
I quite like the FA CUP as it means more to teams. This means motivation is at a high and it is also non seeded. This means that the big guys can meet in the early rounds and knock each other out leaving some minion to an improbable appearance in the latter stages. It feels like the days of compete shocks and lower league teams winning are over. Man City and Utd are 7.6 & 10.5 respectively, but one of those will not be in the fourth round. So 10% of the market will end up having to back in another selection. If you looking in the middle section of the ‘winner’ market there are some crunchy odds.
However I am mainly on the look out for “shocks” in the early rounds. Whether through injury, illness or apathy a much higher ranked side can get dumped out of the competition. I have my head down this morning looking for probables. At first pass Brighton vs Wrexham and MK Dons vs QPR look promising, though the latter is the much more favourable as they are at home.
Good luck today!
No meeting in the final this year!
Give your football 150% this weekend
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 17th, 2011
I love those throw away phrases where people say they are going to give it 150%. Of course you can only give it 100%, or can you? Not when trading.
In a betting market the market is framed at 100%. A football team can only win, lose or draw a match. There is a 100% chance of that happening. But when trading, you are trading how volatile those odds will be and that is always over 100%, whatever sport you trade. I cottoned onto this fact way back when I first started looking at stats and sport and quickly realised the significance when exchanges came along. But this fools a lot of people.
If you bet on a football match for example, over the long term the market is so efficient you will end up +/- nothing less commission (or other charges). But when you trade, depending on what you are doing, you are predicting an envelope of volatility. In football there are several match types that win whatever the underlying basic strategy, and these occur with quite regular frequency.
However, this ‘over 100%’ often fools people into thinking that they have stumbled across some great system. A lot of matches will end in profit simply because of this characteristic but, of course, you can only profit if you predict what is likely to happen than just because of this effect. It creates a high strike rate but that alone doesn’t create a profit.
So when you look at market when trading, you know you should, by default; look at giving it more than 100%!
Throwing it all away
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 15th, 2011
You have to feel sorry for Fulham. All they needed to do was match the result of Wisla Krakow, preferably win, to qualify. In the end it was the very last touch of the match that sent them out.
Two key mistakes cost them the match. The First OB goal was scored from a free kick and the taker of the kick very cleverly moved the ball an extra foot or two to the right of the wall. The Fulham team missed this and the player was able to curl the ball around the wall and beyond the reach of Fulham’s inexperienced goalkeeper. Very clever play by OB.
The next was definitely a mistake by Fulham. Instead of closing out the match in the dying moments they were still trying to score. More experienced professionals would have just run the clock down. OB got possession from a failed attempt on goal, broke up the pitch, sent in a good cross and with the last touch of the match, the ball was headed in the back of the net and Fulham were out of Europe. That worked out really well for me but I was furious at Fulham for such sloppy play. I can only imagine how the Fulham fans felt.
If anything last night was a good example of why you should always green up if you are given the chance! I’m looking forward to this evenings matches!
0-0 Continued…
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 12th, 2011
Well the two key matches I was looking at worked pretty well in the end but the other ‘deserved’ 0-0 at half time ended up 3-0 to the home team. This illustrates a key point.
With any in-play market you are hostage to what happens during the event. If you take a rigid approach to the underlying event you can’t really hope to out perform the statistics that can be modelled in the market.
In yesterdays match Joey O’Brian was booked in the 61st minute. Four minutes later he got his second booking and West Ham had another player booked as well. One minute later Reading scored and West Ham were well on the back foot. West Ham ended up having two players sent off and conceded more fouls than Reading. Basically, they lost it. You could only see that during that five minute spell in which it actually happened. If you had any positions open on the match, that five minutes spell should have forced you to radically re-asses your position.
Hopefully that’s shown you why keeping an eye on an event in-play will help you outperform those that don’t.
- Where it all started to go wrong for West Ham
0-0
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 10th, 2011
Just position taking at half time on this Saturday’s matches and there are a plethora of 0-0′s. 11 out of the 18 matches I am looking at are that score line as I speak.
Of course, underlying those matches are very different characteristics and odds. But I can tell you that each match if you look in real detail will reveal a significant difference between each 0-0. Some are heading for few goals and some should have loads.
The two stand out matches from the crop of 18 I am looking at are Liverpool vs QPR and Birmingham vs Doncaster. Both should not have reached half time with no score. On the flip side Reading vs West Ham is a “deserved” 0-0.
Right, now I’ve set up my positions I will be off doing some Christmas shopping. Had a good day at Cheltenham but the rest of the racing was pretty dire. Bet Angel is going to look after my positions while I am out shopping. Check out the automation feature so you can do the same!
Sometimes shots don't equal goals
Incentive to score
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 6th, 2011
That one word is how I would describe the next two evenings worth champions league matches. Some teams will have a big incentive to score, others to not lose and others no incentive to do anything at all.
All the above will most likely throw up some of the best opportunities you will see in-play in this quality of match. It’s a bit like the knockout stage which returns in February. Early group stages can be tepid affairs but the next two sets of matches should set off some fireworks. I’ll be heading off to the Gym after today’s racing to squeeze in a couple of hours before returning to really get stuck into the football.
I’ll tend to do what I can before the game starts and then carry that over and then some into the in-play market. Once that trade is complete I’ll re-asses things at half time using information I’ve gathered in the first half to make some decisions.
Liquidity should be higher and opportunities abundant, so have a good look this over the next two nights. Check out incentive to score and what each team needs to do to progress. Double check team sheets as they come out and be prepared to go against the prevailing wisdom to catch some big potential. The rewards are so high for progression to the knockout stage, anything can and does happen.
This evening looks OK, but tomorrow night the setups are a little more intriguing; but there should be opportunity in both.
Lay the draw – automatically
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel, Football / Soccer on December 3rd, 2011
Last week we backed the draw using the new automation feature in Bet Angel, this week we lay it.
Whether you use the new feature to implement something or test an idea, it’s a powerful tool to do either. Based on immediate feedback we have expanded the number of conditions you can apply to your automation which expand your capability further. Bear in mind that using the practice mode you can play around without risking any money and by using the P&L export function in the automation, you can export your results to a file long after the market has closed. This will allow you to see how you did on the day when you return to your desk.
We plan to introduce even more elements to the automation, so please keep your version up to date with the very latest beta. Next release is on Monday.
Here is a video explaining how we laid the draw and greened out after a goal, using automation. I’ll export and post the automation file that did this on the forum.
http://www.betangel.tv/video/using-bet-angel/automation/220-automatically-lay-the-draw
Be careful laying the draw in certain Italian matches!
Carling cup lessons
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 1st, 2011
Some interesting lessons from last nights Carling Cup.
First, the best bet of the night wasn’t on Man Utd or Crystal Palace but elsewhere, have a think about it. In the underlying match itself there was a in-play characteristic that really showed up Man Utd’s struggles. It made an outside bet on Palace a good option.
I have to thank an ‘expert’ for hihglighting this characteristic that I hadn’t looked at before. But rather bizarrely this academic was using it to prove almost the complete opposite of what I am using it for. I found it by reading some of the more academic blogs out there. I often find this interesting as they are trying to answer the why of the more subtle aspects of football.
The problem you have with information is that you often find a problem with the way people approach things, especially academics. They tend to lack subjective thought. It’s easy to slip into the mode of looking for justification of something, rather than taking a step back and understanding what actually creates a characteristic. I.e. you seek to justify your findings rather than getting feedback on them. This often leads you down a blind alley which is what happened on the blog post I read.
I took one look at it and thought, ‘That’s interesting, but doesn’t seem right’. So I rolled up my sleeves and went to replicate his findings only to find out there was additional information contained in them that he had missed. This was only because he was seeking to illustrate and prove a point. In doing so he missed the a different point, in fact I’d say he got the whole thing wrong but I haven’t done enough to confidently say that just yet.
I have to say I’m not keen on these types of cup matches but did well this week from both of them by taking positions that were fairly likely to pay off or offer limited downside. Despite the mixed up lack of quality it proved entertaining. The Europa league is turning into the Carling cup of Europe by the look of it. So I’m a bit mixed on that this year, but will be hacking away at it again tonight.
Man City away
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on November 29th, 2011
I had a nose around the footy markets this evening and noted that Man City were around 2.30′s. Wasn’t completely sure that this was what I expected so checked back at recent Man City matches at these prices away from home. In fact I couldn’t find any this year but last year there were three. City won these 2-0, 4-1 and 3-1 respectively.
If we widen the net to include matches between 2.20-2.50 you capture a wider sample including City’s 5-1 away win at Spurs. The data hints that City don’t try really hard against teams they are expected to win against but up their game against higher profile teams.
Of course it’s the Carling cup, so a lot of what happens tonight rests on how important either team feels the competition is, but City also have strength in depth. I’ll be out watching footy tonight, so wont get the chance to trade it manually; but will keep and eye on things and doing some automated stuff while I’m out.
Good luck if you are getting involved. Carling Cup can be a bit of a gamble sometimes.
Back the draw
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on November 24th, 2011
OK, this isn’t a strategy, it’s a demonstration. But here is a simple script that uses the new automation tool to back the draw five minutes before the start of a football match and then lays it back five minutes into the match.
You can view the video here at http//www.betangel.tv
No champions league fireworks
Posted by Peter Webb in Champions league, Football / Soccer on November 23rd, 2011
Not sure if it’s just me, but I’ve found the group stages of the CL this year a little dull. After my racing hiatus I sat down yesterday evening to see some exciting matches, but not a great deal of opportunity. I guessed Man Utd would be keen to win against Napoli, but didn’t bank on such a quick equaliser! I sense the last few matches in the group stages should ignite some fireworks given the way results have panned out so far.
Tonight I’m working on a pre-off trading strategy. There isn’t, generally, a great deal of movement on these matches before the start; Rooney’s omission last night being an exception. But that doesn’t mean there is opportunity. I’ll be doing my best to work the market before the off so I can put some of that to speculative use this evening.
So in the UK we move from the Mancunian challenge to the London challenge. It will be interesting to see if both come to life in the knockout stages, as they seem to have spluttered through the groups. Advantage Spain I’d say at the moment!
Too early!!!
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer, Horse Racing on November 19th, 2011
I was out last night at a charity auction event, doing my own personal bit at this time of year.
The recession must be in full effect as I haven’t seen such low bids at such an charity auction event for some time. In an effort to get things going I was bidding on most items. I got a bit lucky at one point as I nearly ended up with a wedding dress, having started off the bidding, only to see no-one else bid on the item. But some lucky lady outbid me, phew!
I tried to get use of a Aston Martin DB9 for the weekend, but was outbid. I did get eight corporate hospitality tickets for a football match however, so the evening ended on the right note. Lots of money raised and a good night was had by all.
So this morning I woke up with a bit of a sore head but a warm feeling inside. Then I realised the first race of the day was at 11:40!
Having come to terms with that, I remembered that this throws up an opportunity as when the race starts early it, obviously, finishes early. Therefore, as the racing draws to a close, I can move straight onto the football at half time. This is perfect for looking at the first half stats and making some judgements on the second half.
So that’s my action plan for today! Not forgetting to get an early night as well!
'Hangover' is recommended film
R&R
Posted by Peter Webb in Australian, Football / Soccer, Horse Racing on November 2nd, 2011
The Melbourne cup went pretty well and I’m looking forward to finishing off the whole carnival in style if I can. I’ve put a few other things on the back burner this week to focus on the meeting. I’m feeling too old to burn the candle at both ends and get away with it! It was interesting to note that matched bet turnover on the Melbourne cup was lower this year than last. It reached about £3.6m vs. £4.4m last year, therefore my turnover was lower as a result. I had expected turnover to be up.
I’m skipping the Champions league tonight so I can get some rest and relaxation, though I am intrigued by the Villareal vs Man City match this evening. I think most of the other matches can be read reasonably well, but in this one I’m looking for clues City can translate their UK success into a credible European campaign. They certainly have the players to do it, but don’t seem to be firing on all cylinders at the moment in europe. This match will be an interesting test.
Later this morning UK time I’ll be returning to Flemington for more Melbourne action. Today isn’t the best day of racing so it’s a bit ‘hardcore’ to suffer the effort required to do today. So if you didn’t get on with the big race, I wouldn’t recommend getting up early to do today. It’s usually been pretty weak in the past. However, I’m pretty confident I can earn more on this than the football, so that’s what I will be focusing on today.
The champions league gulf
Posted by Peter Webb in Champions league, Football / Soccer on October 19th, 2011
Just had a good look at this evenings matches you can’t help but wonder if UEFA’s coefficient is a bit cocked up. Either than or whether there really is such a massive gulf between the top teams in Europe and everybody else. I suggest the outcomes are driven by commercial incentives in reality.
Barcelona are an amazing 1.05 to beat Plzen this evening. We have Chelsea t 1.12, AC Milan 1.27 and Porto 1.30.
Several uncompetitive prices were offered out last night. The only tempting one last night was Man City, given their weak start to the group stages. Would have turned out to be a great trade. As it was, I was getting sozzled in a hospitality area at Southampton watching the curious phenomena of English players playing in an English league. Still some way from the billions of the champions league. Tonight I’ll be back behind my desk. I am looking for some value in the Porto match.
It doesn’t take a genuis to work out the most to least goals this evening, so I won’t post them up. Good luck this evening.
Pep, how many goals will you win by?
Internationals
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on October 7th, 2011
I had my own international experiance last night when I met up with Howard Hamilton from Soccermetrics. A dedicated group of stats experts huddled in a pub in Fulham to discuss all things football related. Could have done with a quieter pub!
With so many international matches going off at once, or at best close to each other, you may consider using a generic strategy that you can automate. All this can be done in practice mode as well, so you have no risk of losing money. Have a look at these videos for some ideas: -
Trading multiple markets in one football match
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/176-multiple-markets-football
Linking and trading multiple football matches
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/177-multiples-matches-football
Example overs/under football spreadsheet
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/210-overunders-ss
188ft headed goal
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on October 3rd, 2011
One of the things I like about football is it’s randomness. There are predictable elements to it, but goals occur over a wide average and are difficult to pinpoint precisly. This makes it good for certain types of strategies. If you want an example of the unpredictability of goals here is a classic: -
McClaren resigns
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on October 2nd, 2011
Further to my blog post on Saturday, Steve McClaren resigned from his post this evening: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/15145175.stm
You know what to look for!
Cheaters never prosper
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on September 24th, 2011
I saw this post on another blog recently and it shows up how statistics can actually reveal very little at all. This is obviously unintended in this case, but is a trap a lot of people fall into very often. Especially when gambling / trading.
http://www.soccerbythenumbers.com/2011/09/cheaters-never-prosper-connection.html
I first looked into the relationship with fouls and goals some time ago and the link is the attacking strength of one team over the defence of another. If your defence is under pressure then they are more likely to commit a foul. It’s as simple as that, there is little more to be read into things.
For some time I sought to understand how to price odds on a football match. This was the obvious key to finding value. Bit by bit I improved my forecasting skills to the nth degree. In that quest I discovered many things, but one of them was how a lot of stats that are proffered to the market are in fact completely useless in determining value.
If a team has scored two goals a match for ten matches in a row, then you may think this has some bearing on the next match. But ultimately it doesn’t. But that doesn’t stop every pundit and his son offering this as a useful stat. In fact the source of true odds actually lies much deeper in individual statistics and how you plug two disparate teams together. Sort that out and you have the key to successful forecasting.
What does value look like?
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on September 16th, 2011
I’ll often make suggestions around value. In my football ratings I point to matches that will have above or below value median results. What I am trying to say is this looks value, that is value, this isn’t. But what does value look like?
One thing it is not, is a tip. I’ll liberally scatter the words ‘on average’ into many posts as that is what value looks like. All sports and most events show a great deal of variability and that means that it’s nigh on impossible to get things right all the time. Therefore when you see something from me, I’m not saying back or lay this item. I am saying there is value in that. To understand how value manifests itself over time take a look at the following chart.
This chart represents a lay value strategy. I think I have an edge, in fact I am pretty certain I do based on my research, but this graph shows you how variable the results are. After nearly 500 events using £10 stakes I am up £400. But, as you can see, the road is bumpy and this is because value plays out over the very long term. In that mix you can get very long runs where it’s very positive or very negative, but over the long term you should see your bank produce higher lows during each draw-down. That’s how you know you are achieving value. Once you are certain, you start looking at how scalable the strategy is.
So when I make recommendations or give ratings, be sure to interpret it correctly. It’s easy when recommending something to look foolish, but that will only occur if you interpret the information incorrectly. What I am saying when I post up information is that, based upon my analysis, it looks value or look for value here. I know from experience that I can generally find it, but often the biggest hurdle to making it pay is commission and associated costs, that’s critically important as well. So don’t forget to focus on that as well!
Who scores first in a football match?
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on September 10th, 2011
When trading football, whatever strategy you use, it tends to gravitate to the key question, who scores first? (You could add when to that as well!)
I first asked this question in the early 80′s and worked out how to calculte this and most likely time for a goal. I recently revisited some old material and transplated it to today’s markets so see if much had changed. Not a great deal has changed to be honest and the stats are still pretty relevant against today’s. Thanks to modern technology though, I have a much greater depth and perspective of a match, long before it has kicked off and while it is inplay.
So I have put up a poll today to see what perception people have of football statistics.
I have started with a simple question. If you backed a team at 2.00 to win, they have a (1/2.00) chance of winning the match, 50%. If you traded a match, you would benefit because when the home team scored first because you would be able to green up after a goal. So my question is: -
When a team is priced near 2.00 how often will they go on to score first?
Don’t forget that Bet Angel includes the wonderful multi market tool, Guardian and which allows you to trade multiple football matches all at once and the unique football profiling tool, Soccer Mystic.
