Bet Angel - Betfair sports trading and betting blog » Psychology

Serving your trading apprenticeship

Peter Webb — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 12:47:21 +0000

I’ve often advocated a number of different things on this blog relating to how you should approach your time in the markets. The reason, I’ve been through it all!

I’ve posted a link on the forum to some stuff I read recently that I think will be of interest to readers of the blog.

It’s talking about an ‘apprenticeship’, what does it take to get to establish yourself in a role and master it and I think it’s equally applicable …

Inspiration overload!

Peter Webb — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 06:58:44 +0000

The motto for the Olympics this year is ‘inspire a generation’. I think they are delivering in the UK, can’t comment on the view from the outside in.

Inspiration in an important word. Inspiration shows the way, leads people and asks them to step forward and take things to a new level, inspiration is good.

Seeing somebody successful should inspire you, not make you jealous. That first emotion is a strength, the second a weakness; you can little from it. …

The science of choking

Peter Webb — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 14:00:16 +0000

With England due into action today I thought this may be an appropriate topic.

I will be watching the England match with great interest. Primarly to see how the England players settle in against the French. Will the weight of expectation weigh on their shoulders, or will the lack of expectation relax them and allow them to perform to their full ability? If the latter happens then that could be quite interesting with England trading at larger odds than normal. …

A tale of last day relegation

Peter Webb — Sun, 13 May 2012 08:31:53 +0000

Last day of the premiership today, hoping for a few twists and turns on the last day.

I recently watched Southampton get promoted to the Premiership. It’s the end of a seven year wait and has finally exorcised the ghost of relegation from seven years ago. But for me it also has been a point of closure after I sent my team down seven years ago! Well I say I sent my team down, I didn’t, but it felt like …

Cardiff fans turn red over blue

Peter Webb — Thu, 10 May 2012 07:56:58 +0000

Continuing the blue theme from yesterday. Cardiff fans up in arms as the bluebirds look like they will be forced to change colour. Full story: -

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4305460/Blue-murder-as-Cardiff-turn-red-Cardiff-City-to-change-their-strip.html

However, the owner may have a point. I pointed out some scientific research on a previous blog post. One element of this was looking at the effect of red and blue and how it affects sports performance or the interpretations of officials in sports tournaments. The results were fascinating.

See the original blog …

Craving more Craven

Peter Webb — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 11:47:25 +0000

Stuck in a pretty good performance on the first day of the Craven meeting and was pretty pleased all round with overall performance. Some of the testing I’ve been doing on new ideas came good as well, so I’m really chuffed. The champions league didn’t really through off a quality opportunity last night, but apart from some stuff before the off I didn’t really get that involved. Second legs should be interesting.

I prefer to know whether I’m in a …

Nuts, lightly roasted

Peter Webb — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 11:59:15 +0000

I’ve been experimenting with a new strategy recently. I’ve learnt from past experience that data mining can be statistical deja vu. So whenever I make the transition from theory to practical, it always pays to be cautious. So on this occasion I have hedged my position on separate accounts to understand how the main strategy performs but without putting myself at too much risk.

Immediately the strategy started working, with a couple of glitches, so the main account started to …

Why a lack of fuel is linked to sports trading

Peter Webb — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 10:54:26 +0000

On the walk into the office this morning I passed the local petrol station, there were a queue right out into the road. I saw somebody I knew who had driven in from some distance and he revealed a similar story across a wide area. It’s all down the fuss about whether tanker drivers will go on strike. People are scared that fuel may run out if this happens. You can summarise this situation up quite simply, people are acting on …

Is inability to trade a genetic trait?

Peter Webb — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 10:07:06 +0000

When you look at any market that follows a random walk, upside and downside is created in equal proportion. So it’s impossible, if you participate at random, to lose money, apart from the cost of transacting in that market.

On the stock market it’s even more favourable as the underlying investment is net accretive, so it should be even less possible to lose money. But still people lose!

Having studied the markets for so long I now have a very …

Performance anxiety – Why players lose form

Peter Webb — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 08:45:44 +0000

Lovely piece on psychology in the weekend FT. It examines why players of a sport often inexplicably lose their form. I’ve been studying this specifically in a few sports to come up with predictors of decline. My research was sparked by the collapse in form David Duval after he won the British Open golf and I started to dig around deeper and deeper for events that can lead to a decline. I’ve found it useful in Golf and Tennis which …