Archive for category Tennis

Underneath a legendary Tennis match

Not many words can describe the fantastic Men’s final at the Australian open tennis, so I wont try. But to say it was special, would definitely be an understatement. I started the match half dressed having not risen early enough to get changed properly, broke for a full Sunday lunch and still returned for a hour of excitement. Amazing stuff.

The great thing about these matches is that pretty much any trading strategy you adopt will win. If somebody goes from being a set up to a set down, or nearly a set down, you could have backed or laid either and had the opportunity to trade out at a profit. In this match it swung backwards and forwards on a number of occasions. In total, when I was active on the market, I counted 10 breaks of serve, excluding tie breaks.

At the start of the match you could back Djokovic for 1.71 and Nadal for 2.40. From there the start of each set had odds as follows: 2.28 & 1.74, 1.60 & 2.64, 1.14 & 7.8 then the final set started around 2′s as both players struggled into the sixth hour. If you would have laid Djokovic at his start price and got out at 2′s then laid again at your entry price to repeat the trade; you would have turned a trade at least seven times. This would have returned more than double your stake. Laying both at 1.16 would have worked as well returning  an 84% profit on your stake. Timing either strategy would have increased your potential significantly.

I’ve put some charts on the forum, they wouldn’t fit on here. The Betfair charts are a bit ‘squashed’ and not linear, so these charts give a clearer picture of the match. In total £46.2m in matched bets were traded on the market, £42m in-play. Amazing stuff.

 

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Bumps and ripples

What can you tell about a Tennis match before it has started? Quite  a lot actually.

The market is pretty accurate at discounting value into a match and assessing the relative strengths of different players, from that you can plot the most likely path through a match and its progression. You can also hunt for bumps and ripples in that path for odds that are most likely to be reached and how. If you do this, you will see that as a match progresses through various stages, certain odds are more likely than others. Of course this shifts as the match moves on, but if you look these values up before the start you can pick and target certain entry and exit points in advance and benefit from this foresight.

Here is a chart of today’s match between Federer and Nadal. I built it using Tennis Trader and it highlights, sometimes subtly, where some of these bumps and ripples are. On the axis you can see the frequency of occurance and on the x axis, the scoreline.

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Caught-siding

Courtsiding is the method used by people betting on Tennis to beat the in-play delay. The in-play delay is put on matches, such as the Australian open tennis, to stop people from placing bets before other people get to see what happened. It doesn’t work!

Because of the incentive of low risk profit, people will go to great lengths to beat the clock and this has become a feature of many in-play markets, not just Tennis. Like Biff in back to the future, if you can bet on a sure thing, you are bound to end up ahead. I am pretty sure this is one of the key reasons Betfair introduce higher levels of premium charge. My guess is that the clock beaters are some of the biggest earners at the lowest risk on exchanges and suck a lot of money out of the ‘ecosystem’. But even then, competition amongst them has worked to reduce the opportunity somewhat on an individual basis.

The ATP has a very dim view of courtsiding, as can be witnessed by this press story: -

http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-sport/6238956/Suspected-illegal-betting-at-Open

I spotted this story a few days ago but I see others have picked up on it also. This isn’t the first or last time people will be ejected for coursiding.

When the world tour finals came to London I thought it would be fun to do a bit of investigation myself. During a quiet doubles match I scanned the audience for activity. I soon found something and during the break I switched positions and sat right behind somebody courtsiding. They didn’t seem very careful about what they were doing, so if you were there I’d advise being less obvious in future; or at least looking behind yourself now and again!

Having watched for some time, I went off to return later for the singles match. This time I was armed myself to see if I was able to beat the clock beaters.  I thought that an event staged in London may prove trickier than one elsewhere in the world. But to my surprise I was able to nip in ahead of others in the market and courtside. It just took a bit of intelligence and technology to figure out how to do it. But it was still pretty tight, which shows that courtsiders are no longer exploiting things that have happened, but are anticipating things that will happen. If betting exchanges think the existing delays are adequate then I would have to conclude that they are very wrong, as action leading up to a odds changing event is where the inplay delay should be targeted. Not the time difference from the venue to the TV screen of an event happening. I bet you that some very succesfull exchange users would suddenly hit a brick wall if the delay was increased.

So, as I have advised before, if you are trading Tennis try and open positions when courtsiders don’t have an advantage. To try and trade during a point or just before one starts will mean some of your hard earned cash will almost certainly end up in somewhen else’s pockets. I don’t think that’s fair.

I saw this a long time before you ever did!

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Murray Matrix

Looking forward to seeing Andy Murray in action tonight.

Last night I bagged 25 decent winning trades from the overnight matches. I use Tennis Trader to work out key points in a match and what odds are likely to be traded around key points. By looking up these key points in advance I can set up a trade that will trigger at or around those points and offset to a value that will lock in a profit. All markets exhibit a ‘harmonic mean’ around which all volatility gravitates. Understanding that allows you to put trades inside this envelope of volatility and get a decent trade away automatically. I’ll be doing the same again tonight and all the early round matches. I’ll be picking and choosing matches that I want to actively get involved in. Even if you mess around with the former strategy, you will learn a great deal about the market. I set up my trades early in the evening then turn them into keep bets to get matched when the game is underway. Doing this gets me to the front of the queue as well!

In the image you can see I am looking at a particular point in the market where Murray would trade and examing how many sets or games he would need be down / up to achieve that price. It’s possible to work out all combinations of scores and how they can be reached and pitch your trade at a common point by doing this.

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Aussie open – open!

Just about to head off to bed, but in half an hour the Australian open tennis will kick into gear. It’s a great opportunity to get stuck into the Tennis, even if you are not into Tennis, as a lot of matches will appear in the UK early in the morning when not much else is going on.

I have set up Bet Angel to do some simple automation in the early rounds of the tournament as I know where the most volatile matches are likely to be. Bet Angel will be out on watch for me tonight to trade these matches if they reach a critical point. I’ll wake up tomorrow morning to see how it’s got on.

I’m looking forward to the first grand slam of 2012, let’s hope it’s a vintage year.

Rafa added some venom to the build-up

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Big over-reaction

Sometimes I just want to roll Gael Monfils up in a bundle and kiss him.

One of my biggest ever wins came on a match with Monfils in it. He overstretched himself and called for the trainer. I had just backed his opponent and his priced rocketed in and netted me a very lucky big profit, so I greened up. After a brief spell with the trainer Monfils carried on and looked like he had never been trouble and went on to win the match.

It was at this point that I learnt Monfils tended to be a bit elaborate in his play, often plays in a way that could lead to potential injury and tends to make a meal of it. That paid off last night.

I was watching the Monfils vs Becker match at the Qatar open. Monfils collapsed on the ground and everybody laid. I rewound the sky+ put it in slow motion and you can see all he did was whack himself on the knee as he tried to play the shot. Quickly backed him at what ever price I could get and laid it off a few minutes later. He went on to win anyway.

You can see the massive over reaction on the graph. A decent, low risk trade.

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Is Darts the new Tennis?

Some great matches again at the PDC world darts championship this week. Dramatic comebacks from impossible positions, turnarounds, low odds turned over, high odds coming in, big matched bet turnover. Darts certainly has the characteristics of a great trading market. It’s popularity is picking up now as well.

Its scoring and ‘feel’ is similar to Tennis, you also have familiar concepts such as a break of throw / serve. But a big advantage of Darts is that the games are finite and occur over a much faster time period. This give Darts the edge in terms of suitability.

The PDC championships and about to come to an end but the BDO’s are about to start up. Plenty of time to play around in this interesting sport.

 

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Awesome match

At last, a real classic match to talk about at the US Open. Djokovic through to the final after defeating Federer, again, in the semi final from two match points down. A great trading match as well, with some clear cut entry and exit points.

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Three day game

Andy Murray finally put to bed his forth round match at the US open. But the fact it took three days highlights one of the potential issues with trading Tennis. Do you take a long term or short term position, do you hold a position or close it out at defined points?

There are two sides to the coin. The fact an event has no definitive end point vastly increases the volatility and the chance of getting two prices matched at different levels. This increases your chance of success. In a limited time event you not only have the underlying score to think about but also the time value of money. In Tennis this effect is less pronounced.

On the flip side how long the match takes to finish is an important consideration. If you are taking a longer term position you could have to wait some time for a payoff and if the match is interrupted or plays out over a long time frame that could affect the viability of the trade. I tend to look at opportunities from a few perspectives. How often can I find an opportunity and how long will it take to mature?

If you look at a football match, you could find an opportunity in there where your exposure can only last a maximum of 90 minutes or so. If you look at a horse race you could do nine races in those 90 minutes. So you have to ask yourself, what can I yield on a football match and could I yield nine times less but more frequently on the horses?

This is how I approach each day in terms of looking for opportunities. The best scenario is to have multiple sports starting at multiple times. as this means I can participate on all. But if I am forced to choose, it has to come down to the yield multiplied by opportunity equation. It’s at that point that you realise that this itself is also a factor of time.

 

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Hasse vs Murray

“There is a cluster of potential around 1.30′s in this match”

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Passive Tennis trading

Missed most of the US open last night as I opted to play Tennis rather than watch it, but I still profited on the matches last night.

I also had a nice reminder of how using stats can show a different version of the match than the score. I won 6-4 6-4 last night, but the first set was quite tight and I effectively won it with a break of serve in the ninth game. The second set was not close, but I lost two games against serve when I relaxed and tried too many adventurous shots. The score would have been 6-2 otherwise. A good reminder that you should always keep your eye on points won, rather than games won.

Bet Angel contains some very useful tools that allow you to do one thing while doing another. Using Guardian and the spreadsheet integration allows you to expand your sphere of opportunity. The following video shows us linking to all the days matches at the US Open: -

http://www.betangel.tv/video/using-bet-angel/using-spreadsheets/215-tennismultiplespreadsheet

One thing you may want to try is passive trading, setting up a position to get matched in-play to generate a profit (or loss!). I do this lot in the early rounds of Tennis tournaments. I use Tennis trader to identify key areas in a match and place an opening bet offset to get matched at a different price during the match. I can then monitor this in the background with Guardian and use a spreadsheet to give me an at a glance look at how things are going. This means I can trade all the matches with some potential in them. The trick is to place your bets at a area where they are likely to match, but with enough margin that they offset the ones that don’t work.

For example, using Tennis trader I have looked at the Murray match this evening and, excluding tie breaks and the last set won to advantage beyond seven, there are 659 possible score lines that could occur. Projecting forward the odds shows a cluster of odds that are much more likely to be hit than normal so I can place bets in or around this area knowing that unless there is a radical change in the shape of the match I have maximised the upside potential while framing the potential for loss. There is a cluster of potential around 1.30′s in this match which focuses any potential down to the question ‘Can I find more than one in three matches like this where this score will occur’. A variation on this is to place a trade with a trailing stop that has to potential to move into a profitable position. You can then set and forget and come back to analyse the results later, but you are still asking a similar question.

I do this a lot, placing positions in the market with a decent payoff and then searching for the right opportunity. And that in essence, is how you set up a passive trade.

Not so passive

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Feast or farce

Not difficult to choose what to do this afternoon. Yes there was some racing on but when end up with 15 minute gaps and one race at Pontefract had just two runners, though curiously this was the best race of the day for me.

Over at Wimbledon there were quite a few decent matches and opportunties so it was this that held the main interest for me today. As a point of interest, if you want evidence that people are using models like Tennis Trader, have a look at the following implied probability graph. The odds map perfectly onto the the points won or lost on serve, you can clearly see the ranges.

There are 351 tick increments on Betfair, an average of 36.7 games at a Wimbledon match and hundreds of points in a match. If you can pinpoint where the odds should without an aid given those variables, you are a better man than I!

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A week full of opportunities

We are now just beyond the half way point in the year. So double what you have made so far and you end up around your annual total!

Glad I am sat here and not half drunk on some beach. OK I lied, but any regret at not getting sun burnt has been tempered by some fantastic results in the market this week. I’ve really picked up speed in June and I am heading for a great month overall. Despite taking more time off this year I am still ahead of the previous year, I must be doing something right!

The early rounds at Wimbledon have thrown up some first class opportunities. I recently waded through ten years of grand slam tennis results to look at some key metrics and it’s proved enlightening. Wimbledon has provided many opportunities already to profit, so I hope the second week picks up where the first left off. Rather than post up lots of charts here, have a look at the Wimbledon thread where I have been posting charts from matches I have been actively trading. It acts as a useful collecting point for these and should give you some interesting perspective on what I am looking at in a Tennis match.

I managed a record race this week. Not for the week, month or year, but an all time record. I can’t tell you how great that feels after so long in the market. I’ve been making good progress on complimentary activities as well this year and have learnt new things about the market in the process. Hopefully in the final six months of the year I can put some of that into practice.

Talking of practice, don’t forget to download the latest version of Bet Angel which now has a fully functional practice mode. With Wimbledon into it’s final week, why not fire up some Tennis matches and play around with Tennis Trader to get a feel for how to trade tennis. Wimbledon is just one of many tournaments with good liquidity. Before long the tour will be heading over the pond for a time zone that will mean you can trade tennis in the evening to compliment anything you do during the day.

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Grass is for cows

Wimbledon is the only grand slam on grass, but it wasn’t always that way. Two other tournaments were played on grass on the grand slam circuit. The US Open, was played on grass until 1974, and the Australian Open, was played on grass until 1988.

Very few players would not admit that a win at Wimbledon would be a career defining moment. But it’s not through trying that players fail; it’s generally down to how each surface plays. Research by the ATP in 1992 showed that the average length of a point on grass was just 2.7 seconds versus 8.2 seconds on Clay. As there are more tournaments on artificial surfaces, many professional tennis players tend to prefer the slowness and higher bounce to be found on clay courts to the speed and low bounce of grass courts. That is why you see serve and volley players doing well at Wimbledon, as well as those with a powerful serve.

So, is Wimbledon dull and boring with such short lived points? More tomorrow.

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Federer loses French Open final

I’ve deliberately titled this post in a manner that is completely dissimilar to the current headlines out there. Well done to Nadal winning the French open; but if you look at the flow of the match from a statistical viewpoint, it was more like Federer who actually lost it in my opinion.

It was a fairly tight match, till the last set at least, 7-5, 7-6, 5-7, 6-1. You would expect the younger player of the two to do better in a tight match and the longer a match goes that has to be your leaning. Over all Nadal won 143 vs 130 points. For most the first set Federer was on top of the points tally, but the failure to close the set out was a real blow.

Set one and set two Nadal had 9 winners vs 15 & 18 from Federer; you can see Federer played some good shots. But the enforced error tally shows a different story. 17 for Nadal in the first two sets and 39 for Federer. For the third set Federer improved and the stats read 11/16 winners and 8/7 unforced errors, this set was farily even. But Federer couldn’t find any winners in the fourth and his error count went right back up. OK Nadal obviously had something to do with the way Federer played, but it was mainly errors on Federers behalf that cause the defeat. If you want a key to demolition job in the last set, Nadal’s return of Federers serve was at it’s peak at this point; he definately won that last set!

Now the Tennis circuit moves off clay and onto grass. Time for short points, power and the brutal servers to take centre stage.

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Fab Friday

Today, we have a decent looking day ahead of us on the sporting front.

The Epsom derby meeting kicks off today and the Oaks is always a reminder of the first race that Betfair took bets on back in June 2000. To be honest I haven’t really ripped through this Friday for a few years. So I’ll be taking things careful until I get a feel for the day.

At the French Open the top four men in the world battle it out in the semi finals and it’s such a tantalising prospect. All of them have excellent reasons to want to win their respective matches. Djokovic hasn’t played for four days but will highly motivated to win against Federer who has been playing well recently. Murray has been looking the most complete he ever has, but is still ‘injured’. It’s all set up for two great matches. It could end up a bit distracting for me but I’ve already done the maths and know my possible entry and exit points in the matches and will have two TV’s running today in an attempt to keep up with the action.

Should be a great day.

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New balls please

One of the key stories going into the French open was the fact they were going to use a new ball type. I sort of guessed this may lead to a few suprises, but it realistically is going to take the whole tournament to work out if it really made much difference. It’s certainly added a few variables to things. This is an interesting article discussing this very point: -

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520804576341380613199152.html

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Murray Worry

The sign of a true champion is the ability to overcome the impossible. While I’m not suggesting that Murray will win the title at Roland Garros, he certainly showed today that he’s got the guts. After turning over his ankle during the match, his price shot out after people started fearing a retirement. He had already traded at 1.01 adding to the pressure to push the price out.

Murray had his ankle strapped, Dug down deep and got on to close out the match well. An excellent job when he was obviously struggling. This graph is a good illustration of the difficulty of using Betfair grafts to accurately plot trends. On the far left as the price approaches 1.01. This is halfway through the match, the second half of the match as the remaining 90% of the graph!

Here’s a tip: -

If you load matches of interest into Guardian, Bet Angel will store and plot information for each of these matches in real-time. You can then use the advanced charting to look at an accurate graph of historic data. You can do this on any sport.

Looking forward to the second week of Tennis in France.

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Good day all round

While the afternoon racing yesterday was a complete farce – shame on you racing, the evening card was much more interesting, enjoyable and full of opportunity. On the horses I managed more than double yesterday, which was a good result.

At Roland Garros the tennis was proving brilliant yesterday as well. With the wind howling around the courts it threw up lots of oppotunity. Some high profile slip ups generated some excellent opportunties. Congratulations to the person who backed Rus at 980 on her way to defeating Clijsters!! My back at 23 is piddling in comparison.

I am experimenting with a new strategy at Roland Garros on top of my normal activity and that is proving very insightful. I am using Tennis trader to look up odds offset from the starting price but at scorelines that are not unreasonable to expect. I am then asking for those odds before the match has started, meaning I am in front of the queue when the time comes. I am hitting around a 70% strike rate at the moment and achieving pretty reasonable trading results. It’s looking promising.

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Quieter day

It was a quiet day yesterday at Roland Garros. Only five matches really caught my attention compared to nine the day before. With the wind blowing around a lot today I feel we could see some unexpected results today.

I had a more productive day on the horse racing and I am looking forward to the meeting at Sandown tonight, but the afternoon card looks a bit of a farce to be honest! Only ten runners in total in the the first three races?!?!?

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Buying a toss of a coin

Apart from the wild volatility, the thing I love about Tennis is the binary nature of the market. Like the toss of a coin there is only one decision to be made, heads or tails, will they wont they. Your decision making process is much easier and can be focused on some key points.

Yesterday I backed Isner at 160, he traded as low as 3.30 before going on to lose. At his ‘worst’ he traded at 200′s. It would have been a massive win had he gone on to get past the first round. He didn’t, but Nadal will need an easier match next time around to settle any nerves. On this post is a list of the odds at which I managed to catch the winner in other matches. These are not the highest odds they traded at, just the odds I backed them at before they went on to win. Not bad for a coin toss! Of course that’s not entirely true, most of these matches were not at evens before the off and there are others I back they just drifted away and out of the tournament but you don’t need many trades at big odds to make it worthwhile overall. Also if you back at big prices you can still trade out for a profit or smaller loss if they can’t close out the match.

Yesterday was a good day, but I’d be lucky to catch as many today. Fingers crossed!

Tennis / Mladenovic v Morita : Match Odds – 3.20
Tennis / Soler Espinosa v Vesnina : Match Odds – 10.00
Tennis / Larsson v Ivanovic : Match Odds – 13.00
Tennis / Querrey v Kohlschreiber : Match Odds – 7.00
Tennis / Clement v Volandri : Match Odds – 8.06
Tennis / Cibulkova v King : Match Odds – 14.00
Tennis / Almagro v Kubot : Match Odds – 27.00
Tennis / Erakovic v Rus : Match Odds – 4.60
Tennis / Roger Vasselin v Rosol : Match Odds – 4.20

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French Open Tennis

If the tournament continues like this it could be very memorable indeed. On Monday we saw the seeded Berdych crash out against a french qualifier. Andy Murray didn’t repeat the mistake today, but plenty of other big priced winners are coming in today.

Even if you oppose short priced favourites, thanks to the volatility in Tennis, the results can be excellent. Don’t forget to fire up Tennis Trader to check out your potential up or downside in each match before you trade.

 

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French Open Tennis

Looking forward to getting stuck into the Tennis this week, especially with the football season now behind us.

Nadal has an easier draw potentially than Djokovic so Djokovic is right up against it if he is going to maintain his amazing start to 2011.

Don’t forget to use Tennis trader to frame your upside (or downside) when trading a tennis match.

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Djokovic the destroyer

What an interesting summer we could be in for on the Tennis front.

It’s a quite remarkable start to the season for Djokovic. I wrote a detailed magazine article where I had tipped him up as the next #1, but didn’t expect that to be happening near the end of May. His run is taking on truly historic proportions.

Here is a top ten for Djokovic: -

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/19913/top-10-of-djokovics-record-run

I don’t usually trade or watch much sport on a Sunday but couldn’t resist tuning in to watch the final in Rome of Nadal vs Djokovic. It was just too tantalising to miss. I was also looking for clues ahead of the French Open. Nadal looked a bit stunned as Djokovic delivered answers to all questions. It was an impressive performance after a tiring semi final.

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Busy day

Looking forward to a busy day today.

Promotion and relegation battles will be settled on the football pitches today, that always throws up opportunities. There is nothing like career death to focus the mind of a highly paid footballer. I’m looking for an outside chance today. I’ll probably spread around my options to even things out. Did you know that Bet Angel can monitor and fire in bets across multiple markets almost simultaneously? This is ideal for football where matches go off all at once. If you want to you can get bets triggered at X minutes before the off or something similar. You can do this using Guardian and the Excel functions.

In Tennis at the Madrid open we have an intriguing match with Nadal at a very short price on his favourite surface to beat Federer. Perhaps there is an opportunity here or at least a clue to the rest of the season?

Plenty of of racing to hand as well but I doubt I will be doing the Kentucky Derby. I have tried and failed to get anything substantive for quite a few years on this. I’ll have another look today but I doubt it will yield much. In previous matched bet turnover has been pretty poor and that’s been the key problem.

Good luck whatever you are doing today!

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Losing it!

A good example of key turning point in a Tennis match recently. Whether you consider the distraction a key point or the reaction to it, It dug under the mood and psyche of the player and triggered off a bad run in the match. Sometimes not all turning points are based on stats or interpretation of them. However, they do help frame your potential risk and reward and that’s why we created Tennis Trader.

http://sports.yahoo.com/tennis/

You can’t take account of injuries though, no matter how good your model; this is why we have the calibrate button in Tennis trader. If you want an insight as to how an injury or suspected injury can affect things and the way people play then listen to the following interview for some insight: -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/13084714.stm

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Tennis season warms up

With Novak Djokovic’s win against Nadal at Miami yesterday, things are warming up nicely on the Tennis front. Next month the French Open will provide more clues, but it looks like this season we could have some great contests ahead of us.

Miami was a repeat of Indian wells and it provide some excellent trading opportunties. Neither event is highest profile on the tour, but it provided many clues for the summer season. It is clear that Novak is right on top of his game at the moment and in my opinion he still has yet to peak. For a more detailed explantion see the next magazine article I am writing for Gambling magazine. Meanwhile other players are clearly nowhere near their top, but that’s not completely unexpected if they are aiming for good go at a grand slam. Djokovic is the stand out performer this year though.

Looking at the early Wimbledon markets it doesn’t seem that much is being priced in at the moment. Worth another look.

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Serena williams rushed to hospital

News just coming in that Serena williams has been hospitalised with a pulmonary embolism. Puts things into perspective doesn’t it?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1362217/

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Murray match in charts

If you want an insight into how odds move in a Tennis match we will be posting up charts at key points of the Ferrer vs Murray Austrailian open semi final today.

To view the charts, click here to read the thread on the forum.

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Fireworks in Melbourne

Happy Australia day to our antipodean users this morning!

Some decent late night / early morning activity in Melbourne this morning as an injured Nadal struggles to fight of Ferrer in his quarter final match. This could be a significant moment in the tournament, so tune in immediately to take advantage if you can. When the Australia day fireworks force a break in this game the trainer can treat Nadal and that could be a pivotal moment.

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