Recent Articles
BMW PGA – Wentworth – The Cut
List of positive movers at the cut, returns to £10 stakes. The really bad weather on Thursday and Friday put paid to a host of contenders chances so this has been very beneficial for people further down the field at the start. Weather forecast is good today and tomorrow so I would imagine some of the higher ranked players will re-assert there authority on the tournament.
I’m busy on other sports today but will be heading over to Wentworth for …
Today’s crop of dodgy football matches
The football season is pretty much over, but the fun and games are not it seems. With a few things to be decided in Italy there is still time for some unusual odds, volume and perhaps results? I have attached an image for posterity. At 09:00 this morning the matched bet volume on Verona vs Empoli was the leading traded volume on the football for the entire day for all matches!
Novara vs Lanciano – £15k matched, £11k on the …
Racing steps up a gear
Nice looking card today with Newbury, York and Newmarket then Aintree in the evening. So I’m rubbing my hands at the prospect of some more action today.
The better quality racing has been quite good this week, the other stuff in-between not so great. But I’ve managed to pull out the odd decent result while avoiding the worst of things. It’s noticeable recently though, particularly since mid April, that trying to get an order filled on the weaker betting markets …
York Dante meeting
After a successful Chester meeting last week we roll onto York for the Dante meeting this week.
The York card looks OK but the other stuff on the card today looks a little ‘testing’. I’ve never managed to consistently pull out any big totals from this York meeting in the past but I approach each market with a fresh set of eyes, so you never know.
As we move through the early part of the flat turf season the early …
Betfair find a new home for flutter.com
Remember flutter? I do, I signed up for flutter.com around the same time I signed up for Betfair.
Flutter was one of Betfair’s biggest competitors before spending a lot of money pursuing slightly the wrong angle and falling victim to a Betfair takeover in their infancy.
I’ve been an advocate of Betfair using the Flutter brand to launch their assault on the gaming and sportsbook market while leaving the exchange mechanism to the suitably named Betfair. However it looks like …
Roland Garros on the horizon
The European clay court season is in full flow now and Rafael Nadal lifted his 40th career title on clay and 5th title this year at the Madrid Masters. On the women’s side Serena Williams successfully defended her Madrid Open title and kept her world #1 status in defeating Maria Sharapova. This was despite a massive scare in the quarter finals. We now move to Rome for the ‘International BNL d’Italia’ which will be the last tournament before Roland Garros.
Nadal …
Betfair and CVC terminate takeover talks
Full statement here – http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=35&t=2623&start=266
Looks like I was right to sell into the market. It will be interesting to see what price the shares open at this morning. Highlights of the statement: -
Following the announcement of the trading and strategy update, the Board received a revised proposal from the Co-offerors (the “Revised Proposal”) on the evening of Friday, 10 May 2013. The Revised Proposal valued each Betfair share at 920 pence per share in cash. On the morning …
City awaits CVC Betfair bid, or not
CVC, the private equity group that was revealed as in talks with Betfair about a possible bid, has until 5pm today to put in a bid or walk away.
The city is talking up a bid of £10, or somewhere near that, to get discussions really going. Betfair shares have responded in kind to this potential. But it’s really a case of how much risk CVC wants to take.
At certain prices Betfair would be a slam dunk investment. I …
Using Bet Angel’s Advanced Automation
Automating your activity is often referred to as ‘botting’, the colloquial term for using a robot to perform activity on your behalf. As well as fully featured betting and trading tools, Bet Angel also includes many automation type features.
Using Automation with Bet Angel will save you time and improve your effectiveness in a market. You can standardise a strategy, test a theory, supplement your existing activity, participate at low risk on new markets, automate the entry or exit of your …
Using Bet Angel’s Basic automation
Let’s imagine we want to bet on a runner that looks like it will win. For example, we may have noted in certain types of races that the first runner to dip below 1.4 generally goes on to win. We can ask Bet Angel to place a BACK bet using the Back Automation Rule:
If current odds >=1.01 and odds <=1.4 and WOM<=100% Place at 1.01
This is saying if the price of the runner reaches anywhere between 1.01 and …
How to automate your Betting or Trading
Bet Angel has many exciting features but none more interesting than that of automation. Automation offers the tantalising promise of unattended and automatic trading that free you up to trade on other markets while it works its magic in the background or do something else – like go to work, or play some golf!
But seriously, putting the Excel streadsheet integration to one side, Bet Angel also has key two automation areas. When you start Bet Angel there is an …
My season long shot
May day is pay day for me, on a number of football markets. Season long bets mature and pay out months of hard work.
Relegation and promotion markets are something I play in each year and they can be quite fertile territory, if you have the patience.
Where to look
The new manager effect is a well understood phenomena in football. The old manager is given the boot and existing players suddenly have somebody new to impress. It’s a little …
How do the Italians get away with it?
I know I’ve posted a few times on this, but it’s really difficult to fathom in an age of close scrutiny and elevated morality in sport how matches like this occur. Today – Bari vs Cesena
I just downloaded todays football for analysis and on this match £30k has been match and all but a minor amount has been matched on the draw, which is going off odds on! Amazing, or it would be, if it wasn’t so predictable!
You …
Peak trading season nears
58 races on the card, Tennis in Madrid, players championship golf, this is all good stuff.
We are well and truly embedded in the flat turf season now. 58 races greet us on the card today and there must be at least a dozen really decent opportunities in there. I’d love to tell you what they are, but my trading style means I wont know until we are much nearer the start. But it’s all good stuff out there.
The …
Racing Victoria ups the ante
A statement from Racing Victoria this morning seems to up the ante of fees generated from bookmakers, any higher and you would think it would make sense for them to buy a bookmaker rather than going through the hassle of collecting it from them.
Despite seeing $44m, an increase of 25%, in the amount they are getting for racing, it seems that’s not enough so they are upping the rates again. It seems a dangerous tactic, but as with these …
The longest running Betfair market ever
News that Sir Alex Ferguson is about to retire has re-ignited interest in the long forgotten ‘Next Man Utd manager market’.
This is a market that must hold the record for the longest ever market on Betfair. Some must be glad it is coming to a close! According to the start date on Betfair, the market first opened on 17th September 2001! I realised it had been up there for some time, but that date even surprised me.
Since the …
Betfair test new pricing models
Betfair announced their FY2013 post close trading update today and generally put a positive slant on things. True detail was hard to come by though.
The S word got a lot of mentions today but it was a confusing picture, for me at least. They showed big growth in the sportsbook customer base, but didn’t indicate whether it included the Blue Square stuff or not? So it’s difficult to know if that figure has any relevance. Also last year the …
Strange Betfair error you need to be aware of
While browsing the Betfair site today I spotted an error that could lead to you placing a bet on the sportsbooks rather than the exchange. Even if you are logged into and using the exchange. Please see the following video: -
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End of season Italian football – I predict a draw
As I have pointed out in prior years at the same time, end of season Italian football can throw up some strange situations and odds. Here are the ‘top’ eight matches with the lowest price for the draw today.
Spezia Vs. Lanciano – Draw odds – 2.08
Cesena Vs. Juve Stabia – Draw odds – 2.1
Chievo Vs. Cagliari – Draw odds – 2.3
Cittadella Vs. Reggina – Draw odds – 3.1
Crotone Vs. Modena – Draw odds – 3.3…
All set for the Newmarket Guineas
The weather is looking great this weekend for the first real big trading market of the flat season, the Guineas. Good weather on a bank holiday weekend, I must be dreaming!
I’ve always enjoyed the Guineas meeting and have had some fun and game over the years on it. I’m really interested in how it will perform this year as we’ve spotted two major changes in the market between this year and last. So this weekend is turning into an …
Betfair wins William Hill Judicial Review
In a unanimous ruling, the Court of Appeal today found in favour of Betfair in the Judicial Review brought by William Hill, which concerned the Horserace Levy Board’s treatment of betting exchange customers.
The High Court had previously ruled in favour of the position of Betfair as supported by the Levy Board in July 2012, confirming the outcome of the extensive Consultation the Board itself undertook in 2010-2011. That Consultation clearly determined that customers of betting exchanges are not liable …
What’s Messi worth to Barcelona?
I recently asked a similar question of Gareth Bale and last night made me feel a move for Mr Bale is almost certain this summer when Spurs fail to qualify for the champions league.
But back to last night.
I must admit I was anticipating that Barcelona would ‘go for it’ from the off in an attempt to get an early goal and put pressure on Bayern early on, but it never came. Bad tactics, poor motivation? It seemed something …
A fool and his money are soon parted
‘A fool and his money’ It’s a classic phrase, but it always seems to ring endlessly true and never shall it be any different it seems.
This post is about the case at Southwark Crown Court this week, involving the now infamous Elliot Short. I see others have picked up on this before I had the chance to write about it, but here is the link to the original article which was posted up on the forum at the start …
Bet Angel hints and tips – The ‘Make Market’ button
When trying to get a trade placed into the exchange then usually it is a good idea when placing a bet to ask for a better price than the one currently on offer. What do we mean by that?
GETTING A BETTER PRICE
For example, if a football team has a current back price of 5.1 then it makes sense to try and get better value and submit a BACK bet at 5.2 and vice-versa. Taking the current value of 5.2 …
Betfair reject £900m takeover offer
Betfair came out this morning and rejected an offer by CVC of 880p per share. With 103m shares in issue, that values Betfair at roughly £900m. Betfair shares closed at 800p on Friday so expect another jump up today.
Mark Davis had some interesting reflections on the offer on his blog. His comments are always worth a look as he is a big shareholder and obviously an insider on the whole Betfair thing. He has often given insight to …
Bahrain Formula 1 Grand Prix
My quest to model all F1 circuits continues and its starting to yield results. It’s been a massive task, but I just love fiddling around with data to better understand a sport and look for an edge. If I don’t find anything, it makes for a nice magazine article anyway!
There is a limited data set from Bahrain so comparing this track to others is not an exact science, but when you sort the data a couple of characteristics pop …
Travelling trader
This post has been prompted by this thread in the forum. I don’t know if you remember my post of 2/3 years ago, where I kitted out a holiday cottage so I could trade.
Why? I’ve learnt from past mistakes that if you see an opportunity you take it, in full. So while I’m still in my trading prime, I’d be a fool to turn down the opportunity. Plenty of time to enjoy it later. I also love travelling …
Evening all
Tonight sees the return of the ‘I’m not interested in racing, I’m here for the concert’ season.
But seriously, flat turf evening racing starts up again tonight and as we shuffle through the weekend. We also can herald the start of Windsor in the evening, which means we things are about to step up a gear. At least in quantity.
This is a perfect time for part time traders or people who want to try trading but don’t have much …
Nadal scrapes through in Monte Carlo
Rafael Nadal prepared for his assault on the French Open by narrowly beating unfancied Russian Grigor Dimitrov today.
I love matches like this because, unless you are a value seeker, there isn’t much point in backing somebody, Nadal, at such short odds. So much risk and so little reward. So you inevitably end up laying the red hot favourite or backing the rank outsider.
Dimitrov lost, 2-6, 6-2, 4-6, Nadal using the ninth game effect to push for a break …
Spring is definitely here
European clay court Tennis, Racing at Newmarket and shock of all shocks, some decent weather in the UK. Spring is definitely here!
So we are now on the cusp of a lot of major sporting action. This year wont be quite as busy as last year but it’s something to look forward too.
The Monte Carlo Masters Tennis is a signal to start dusting down things for the French Open. The clay court season in past years has been interesting …
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