Posts Tagged 2010
2010
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 24th, 2011
Already near the end of January and I realise I haven’t talked about what happened last year.
2010 was very satisfactory and I evolved further during the year. Each year that passes I learn more and more how the markets work and why they are priced the way they are. I think this is the thing that I enjoy most, the discovery. Whatever I am doing, I will often have a pen and paper handy in case some amazing thought comes into my head. I would still be happy doing this if there was no monetary value attached. I am just lucky there is a payoff with some of this information. Note the use of the word, some.
I’ve already decided that my aspirations for 2011 will change. I’ve always been of the belief you don’t move forward by standing still. It’s over a decade since I signed up to Betfair and I need to start thinking seriously about where I want to be in another ten years time. I feel the urge to appraise things, and I trust my instinct. So I’m taking some extended time off in the quieter months to look at things.
I did look at some things late last year and there are some simple facts that stand out. I can reduce my activity by 40% while only being 20% less effective and I can easily identify where to do this. It’s these sorts of things I am looking at. I’ve achieved a lot and work very hard, not just in what I am currently doing, so I think I should treat myself a bit better and be there more for my family. I’ll post up more thoughts next month, I’ve given myself till Cheltenham to rationalise them, before the busy flat season kicks in.
Things I did last year: -
Finally completed my Tennis model!
Had a record year
Had a record month
Managed to back a winner at odds of 1000 before the off
Did more events that ever
Did something nobody would ever believe!
Had a really nice break in the summer (Sort of)
Things I didn’t do: -
Have a record week
Have a record race
Have a record winning run
Have a record losing run
Get fit enough
Take enough time off
Spend enough time looking at new sports / areas
Your outlook
Before the year really gets going, take some time out and have a think about what you want to achieve in 2011 and how you will get there. As soon as you do that, you will start moving towards that goal. Too often people try and achieve something without a clearly defined path. As that business phrase says, if you fail to plan, you are planning to fail! Good luck in 2011.
December
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 3rd, 2011
It is quite easy to guess how December went.
With all the weather disruption only a minor miracle could get me near last years December. That didn’t happen and it felt like December could be a write off at one point. But a few decent days near the end of the month salvaged something out of the month but it was still over 50% down on the prior year. Last year did go exceptionally well though, so that decline masks a good time last December. On a normalised basis it was still down a fair bit but not a complete disaster.
It’s a bit unlucky to have such a weather affected December as January wasn’t great, so that’s 1/6th of the year disrupted by weather. You can see why I will work hard during the good times to maximise potential as much as possible. If you do that, you can just shrug your shoulders when things are taken out of your hands. I’m interested in managing things I can control than those I can’t. I actually really enjoyed a Christmas with the family without many interruptions. I even had boxing day off! I think my experience was a lesson for 2011.
Talking of comparisons, the weather was pretty poor at the start of last year, so you can take a positive from that by getting stuck in at the start of the year. It’s easy to beat last year when there was so little racing on. So, there you go, a good start to 2011 is on the cards!
Spain will win
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 26th, 2010
While browsing the other night I found this really interesting peice: -
http://kn.theiet.org/magazine/issues/1008/predicting-football-1008.cfm
It’s quite rare to find some decent stuff on the Internet. It’s amazing how many experts are out there, despite there actually being very few people who can claim to be true experts. My definition, somebody who is willing to back up their rhetoric with hard cash!
Anyhow, this is an interesting peice and would have made an even better read before the world cup!
Germany vs Spain
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 7th, 2010
The market is priced for 2.40 goals or thereabouts with a 1.20 goals to Spain. The Germans have stormed through to the semi final whereas the Spanish appear to have ground out results but both teams slipped up in the group stages.
Some interesting notes I’ve copied from elsewhere: -
- Victory at Euro 2008 was only Spain’s second win in eight competitive games against the Germans.
- Germany are unbeaten in three previous World Cup games against the Spanish.
- Overall, the two nations have met 20 times: Germany have won eight and Spain six, with six draws.
- Germany have reached this stage in six of the last eight World Cups.
- While Italy beat the Germans in 1970 and 2006, it is 52 years since a side other than the Azzurri defeated them at the semi-final stage.
I’ve always been a keen advocate of psychology over stats and I think the Germans definitely have the wind behind them. The Spanish have the weight of expectation on them as they are the first Spainish team to reach the semi finals of the World Cup. By contrast this will be Germany’s 11th world cup semi final and most German’s wouldn’t have expected that this time around.
I’m tempted to plump for a contrary trade by favouring the German’s to win a low scoring contest.
More about penalties
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 29th, 2010
Following the recent chatter on penalties, I note the absence of them so far! Somebody posted on the forum about a very useful tool that you can use.
I didn’t know this existed, so thanks to the poster for finding it. It confirms what I was talking about, but more importantly it could prove very useful if a match goes to penalties. This is because it allows you to examine all previous results from the penalty takers and savers. Very useful.
Ouch, that’s embarrassing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
I don’t think it needs any more comment really does it? Apparently the English league is the most competitive and highly paid in the world with some of the best individuals. And individuals they will remain!!!
I’ve consoled myself by smashing into a few horse races that followed the match, sorry about that! But one of them was the Irish Derby, too good to miss. Grabbing a few hundred will allow me to drown my sorrows tonight.
Obviously blatter is happy to see this time and time again
Coin flippers re-union at 3pm
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
Had a look at THE match stats this morning.
The market has priced in just a shade over two goals for the Germany vs England match. England have a 0.10 goal advantage. The market is pricing in a tight nervous affair where one goal could be enough, but a draw is the most likely result. Obviously if you share two goals amongst two teams then a draw is very likely.
I sense a nervous two hours come 3pm but having read the Germany press this morning, putting the rally calls aside, Germany seem equally nervous after there last two performances. This is where managers and tactics can make a big difference.
I won’t be taking a position during the match for obvious reasons, but will be trading pre-off. Good luck if you are having a go. Going to be a great day in the UK for watching the match, will it be a memorable one?
The maths behind penalities – Part Two
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
Yesterday we saw that goalkeepers are basically glory seekers, or at least showing that they understand the psychology of failing the right way. Today we give a final answer on what David James should do if faced by a German penalty today.
Often the best way to look at something is to turn it on it’s head. When we looked at penalities we saw that while kicks are randomly distributed, the goalkeepers actions are not. So lets look at when they get it right.
In the sample we were looking at, 32/268 penalties were ‘saved’, around 11%. Saved shots were reasonably equally distributed whether the taker sent them left right or down the middle. But, when you combine this with goalkeeping stats one thing really stands out. If the goalkeeper stands in the middle and a shot is sent in roughly that direction, it was saved 60% of the time. This is more than double the rate at which a goalkeeper who guesses right can save a kick. Obviously if a shot is sent left and the goalkeeper goes right the strike rate is err.. zero.
Whichever way you look at it, standing still is actually a good tactic. It’s difficult to reach the ball in a far corner from a good penalty taker, so it’s better to captialise on nervous takers who don’t want to risk missing. Of course this all depends on one penalty being independant from another. Let on that you are going to stand still and you increase the chance that the ball will not go down the centre. That is where it gets more complex, should your strikers assume the goalkeeper will dive or stand still? Logic tells you to send it into the corner but reality indicates that at least half the time the goalkeeper will dive that way. It all comes down to psychology. With England so fragile I would be tempted to suggest, just keep in on target and hit it hard. James should stand still and be prepared to get it in the neck for ‘not trying’. That should do the trick.
If you want to do more research ahead of today’s match I suggest you visit: -
http://www.penaltyshootouts.co.uk/
For the definite way to take a penalty, I’ll leave it to the master.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/2275796.stm
The maths behind penalities – Part One
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 26th, 2010
Groups stages, tight games, can’t afford to lose, Germany, England. This must only add up to one thing, penalties!
Are we going to suffer again, will there be the same agony as in prior years? Penalties is another area I have looked at and I think the findings may be of use to any prospective England goalkeeper facing a penalty, football traders may also benefit.
First off, you can reach some easy conclusions. From spot to net, the ball will travel just 12 yards and it is estimated that this will happen in about 0.30 seconds. Stikers should score from this distance! This also forces each goalkeeper to make a decision about what to do, BEFORE, the ball is struck; he has to anticipate which way to dive. He could dive left, right or stand still.
This is where a subtle peice of psychology comes into play, it is what I shall call the action / inaction bias. Imagine the scenario, you know that any goal in a match in the knockout stages will be significant and that by saving a penalty you will almost certainly have a significant impact on the match and on your status. What do you do? If you stand in the middle of the goal like a lemon you could be a national pariah if a goal is conceded. Dive spectacularly and tip it around the post and the praise will come flooding in. What happens is that the goalkeeper ends up facing the same dilemma and regret pang as a gambler or trader. The goalkeeper is fearing the negative consequences of his actions, rather than making a logical and reasoned choice. This fear is so overwhelming it has a strange effect. In 286 matches analysed, the goalkeeper dived in one direction or another 268 times. He went for glory 94% of the time. Did the goalkeeper make a logical choice? To do this you need to analyse where the ball went.
Over the same 286 matches the penalty taker more or less evenly distributed the shots left, right and centre either by design or accident. In the data I looked at there was a bias to the right hand side but there could be many reasons for that. Excluding the bias it was a random shot choice. Therefore the goal keepers definitely were making a sub-optimal decision by choosing to dive so often. Penalty takers struck the ball down the middle nearly 29% of the time, goalkeepers only stood there around 6% of the time! If you are a goalkeeper, standing idly would appear to be a decent choice but as shots were equally distributed then any random choice would be sensible.
If you are a striker then you should engage in some gamesmanship to encourage the goalkeeper to dive, then send the ball down the middle. But there is more logic to taking and saving and that’s what I will cover tomorrow….
That match
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 23rd, 2010
Given the gloom and doom I am almost tempted to back England this evening. But much of that depends on price and what the team looks like when it is announced. The match is priced for 2.56 goals with a 1.60 advantage to England, yeah right! England just haven’t looked a potent threat upfront and I think it’s optimistic to imagine a free flowing high scoring game, lets hope I am wrong!
If you look at the world cup so far though, the market has forecasted around 2.30-2.40 goals a game. On average, I am missing a few matches and not totally up to date, there has only been an average of slightly less than two. This is a low scoring competition! I had forecast this a few months ago when I wrote an article for a magazine. In 1998 there was an average of 2.67 goals, 2.52 in 2002 and 2.30 in 2006. This tournament could see a new low. I suspect this is just due to the fact that the teams are much more competitive now thanks to so many players whose home team is not even in their country of origin now.
Anyhow, come on England!
Not a joke
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 19th, 2010
Honestly, not a joke; but this is the book I am reading at the moment just before I go to bed. It’s actually a really good read and highly recommended for sports traders!
It does what it says on the tin
1.05 about to be turned over?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 19th, 2010
Should England pack up and come home? Traded at 1.05 to qualify last night must have those backers quivering. After failing to beat Algeria, which most teams in the English football league could surely achieve, has there ever been a more defining moment in English national football?
For many, many years we have had loads of great individuals but seemingly no team. Last night showed this up in clear light again and surely the time has come to stop picking individuals and go for a real footballing team. Everybody knows Gerrard and Lampard can’t play together. The Man Utd team is geared around supplying Rooney with chances, England is not. Last night was just a completely inept performance on a scale I have not seen before. At least Gerrard could see that and hung his head while admitting it wasn’t good enough, the less said about Rooney the better. With little to lose why not go radical and put Defoe and Crouch upfront, drop Rooney, Lampard and inject some real energy into the game. If we put out another lame performance, then I think we should scrap the whole thing and start again, we just can’t go on like this.
Over-reaction, maybe, but I did wait till this morning to write this and I think lots of people feel the same.
Some people paid a lot of money to watch that Wayne.
England lose on penalities
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 7th, 2010
Not a prediction, this happened at the weekend. OK it’s only Soccer Aid, but losing in a penalty shoot out on the Sunday before World Cup week isn’t the best omen is it?
Still at least that’s out of the system, so it can’t happen in the world cup, can it? I can’t figure out why England players in any form can’t win a shoot out. Quite a few years ago I ‘qualified’ for a world cup tournament where I played for England in a football tournament organised by my then employers Compaq. Off we flew to Munich and made our way to the semi finals where, you guessed it, we lost on a penalty shootout. Maybe it’s something that just needs to be shaken out of our nations psyche somehow? I will never why England don’t draft in Matt Le Tissier, he was just awesome at penalty taking. See this article.
"Brian Clough" and Robbie