Posts Tagged 2011
Farewell 2011
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel, News on December 31st, 2011
No time to summarise the year on this post, hopefully I’ll get the chance in the new year. But just wanted to say goodbye 2011 and thanks for everybody’s support and custom through out the year. It turned out to be a really interesting year, right to the final days!
I managed to bag a four figure race yesterday and did well on the darts in the evening so it’s likely to be a nice sign off for the year.
Here’s looking ahead to what is going to be a fascinating 2012.
May
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 2nd, 2011
Another month has gone and I’m feeling more optimistic about the year as it wears on.
Each year I’m deliberately pessimistic at my chances. I’d rather have low expectations and exceed them, than high ones that force my hand. God knows I spend so much of my life tied up in numbers and so on, I swear I’m going mad some times. However, I’m much more relaxed this year about and have spent a lot of time doing new things; it seems to be helping! I’m very driven, but by the need to explore new frontiers. Like any explorer, every ocean sailed leaves me the question of “What’s on the other side of this land?”
I’ve been busy exploring some new land this month on betting exchanges. Nothing has come of it just yet, but its has thrown up some interesting material already. I made a loss on all these new strategies, but that’s fine. I now have an understanding of what I am looking at. My next step is to refine the process to cut out the biggest losers, this will tip me nearer a profitable strategy. Where those occur is obvious from the data I have collected. You should always be exploring. If you stand still in this game you will soon get caught. Keep testing new ideas, thoughts and processes. I use the spreadsheet function on Bet Angel to test stuff nearly every day.
I’m pleased about May, not only did I manage to avoid my jinx this year, but I actually had a pretty good month anyhow. I wasn’t really expecting that, as I had a cracker last year and matching that was an outside chance. But I did it!
June will be different, I had a quiet time last year and nothing really fell into place. As a result I have marked down my expectations this year. But I also have a wedding to attend in June, many miles from my base in the UK. Therefore I owe it to my friends to not touch the markets while I am away. Big weddings like this don’t happen very often so it would be an injustice not to pay it due respect!
2011
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 19th, 2011
At the start of the year I decided that 2011 will be a different year for me, let me explain.
Last year I pulled out all stops to achieve a few things left on the to do list. I picked last year as it marked a decade since Betfair started and I joined up. There were only a couple of long term things left that I wanted to do and, despite a poor January and December, I managed to achieve them. But that left me wondering ‘What next?’
For me, one of the key things about doing anything is the challenge. When I worked for others in the past, I always needed to be busy and working on a grander plan. When I couldn’t, I got bored and frustrated. As a consequence I never settled in any role for too long as I kept on wanting to do new things. I have a keen desire not to never reach the place where I will be bored and frustrated again!
In my time on Betfair I’ve knocked down many hurdles and my understanding of the market has reached new heights on each discovery. However, I’ve spent a lot of time in getting a deeper understanding and tinkering with the edges of things and not enough on completely new things recently. The prospect of another year doing the exactly the same thing doesn’t fill me with excitement. Reaching new personal heights will require longer time scales now and more work, so this year I will take a lot of time out to work in new areas, not just on Betfair. I’ve worked out I can achieve a 40% reduction in workload on Betfair with only a 20% reduction in value, so that will allow me the space I need. It will also allow me more time off which is valuable. Of course, you can’t accept a reduction and still achieve a prior years total. So I am looking to make progress in a number of areas this year that will push me forward and reward me in future years, but I am not looking to exceed last year stellar performance.
This is also about the true longer term future. Where do I want to be in ten years time? The kids will be older and probably in need of more help. Can I imagine myself still being on Betfair for twenty years? What personal things do I want to achieve before I am too old? If I want to achieve greater things, then I need to start working towards them now and laying foundations, planning and moving towards those goals. Repeating a prior year is not an option. It’s worth taking stock of that and allocating time to that problem. I’ll update you on how I have done at the end of the year!
So that’s what I aim to achieve in 2011. I’m looking forward to it, it’s going to be different!
2010
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 24th, 2011
Already near the end of January and I realise I haven’t talked about what happened last year.
2010 was very satisfactory and I evolved further during the year. Each year that passes I learn more and more how the markets work and why they are priced the way they are. I think this is the thing that I enjoy most, the discovery. Whatever I am doing, I will often have a pen and paper handy in case some amazing thought comes into my head. I would still be happy doing this if there was no monetary value attached. I am just lucky there is a payoff with some of this information. Note the use of the word, some.
I’ve already decided that my aspirations for 2011 will change. I’ve always been of the belief you don’t move forward by standing still. It’s over a decade since I signed up to Betfair and I need to start thinking seriously about where I want to be in another ten years time. I feel the urge to appraise things, and I trust my instinct. So I’m taking some extended time off in the quieter months to look at things.
I did look at some things late last year and there are some simple facts that stand out. I can reduce my activity by 40% while only being 20% less effective and I can easily identify where to do this. It’s these sorts of things I am looking at. I’ve achieved a lot and work very hard, not just in what I am currently doing, so I think I should treat myself a bit better and be there more for my family. I’ll post up more thoughts next month, I’ve given myself till Cheltenham to rationalise them, before the busy flat season kicks in.
Things I did last year: -
Finally completed my Tennis model!
Had a record year
Had a record month
Managed to back a winner at odds of 1000 before the off
Did more events that ever
Did something nobody would ever believe!
Had a really nice break in the summer (Sort of)
Things I didn’t do: -
Have a record week
Have a record race
Have a record winning run
Have a record losing run
Get fit enough
Take enough time off
Spend enough time looking at new sports / areas
Your outlook
Before the year really gets going, take some time out and have a think about what you want to achieve in 2011 and how you will get there. As soon as you do that, you will start moving towards that goal. Too often people try and achieve something without a clearly defined path. As that business phrase says, if you fail to plan, you are planning to fail! Good luck in 2011.
December
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 3rd, 2011
It is quite easy to guess how December went.
With all the weather disruption only a minor miracle could get me near last years December. That didn’t happen and it felt like December could be a write off at one point. But a few decent days near the end of the month salvaged something out of the month but it was still over 50% down on the prior year. Last year did go exceptionally well though, so that decline masks a good time last December. On a normalised basis it was still down a fair bit but not a complete disaster.
It’s a bit unlucky to have such a weather affected December as January wasn’t great, so that’s 1/6th of the year disrupted by weather. You can see why I will work hard during the good times to maximise potential as much as possible. If you do that, you can just shrug your shoulders when things are taken out of your hands. I’m interested in managing things I can control than those I can’t. I actually really enjoyed a Christmas with the family without many interruptions. I even had boxing day off! I think my experience was a lesson for 2011.
Talking of comparisons, the weather was pretty poor at the start of last year, so you can take a positive from that by getting stuck in at the start of the year. It’s easy to beat last year when there was so little racing on. So, there you go, a good start to 2011 is on the cards!
2011 UK Racing fixtures released
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 24th, 2010
And to be honest, after all the rhetoric, it looks better than I expected.
There is a nice summary on the BBC website: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/9029038.stm