Posts Tagged andy murray
Murray Matrix
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on January 16th, 2012
Looking forward to seeing Andy Murray in action tonight.
Last night I bagged 25 decent winning trades from the overnight matches. I use Tennis Trader to work out key points in a match and what odds are likely to be traded around key points. By looking up these key points in advance I can set up a trade that will trigger at or around those points and offset to a value that will lock in a profit. All markets exhibit a ‘harmonic mean’ around which all volatility gravitates. Understanding that allows you to put trades inside this envelope of volatility and get a decent trade away automatically. I’ll be doing the same again tonight and all the early round matches. I’ll be picking and choosing matches that I want to actively get involved in. Even if you mess around with the former strategy, you will learn a great deal about the market. I set up my trades early in the evening then turn them into keep bets to get matched when the game is underway. Doing this gets me to the front of the queue as well!
In the image you can see I am looking at a particular point in the market where Murray would trade and examing how many sets or games he would need be down / up to achieve that price. It’s possible to work out all combinations of scores and how they can be reached and pitch your trade at a common point by doing this.
It’s a trick…
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 13th, 2011
Shot.
Great value entertainment and trading fodder today at Queens, in the traditional warm up for Wimbledon. I thought Murray did a great battling job in Paris and his display against Roddick the other day was just awesome. Today, after an early wobble, he closed out against Tsonga and did some headline making shots as well, but in a different manner to the Roddick match. Hold onto your hats as Wimbledon fever is almost here. Can’t wait!
French Open Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on May 24th, 2011
If the tournament continues like this it could be very memorable indeed. On Monday we saw the seeded Berdych crash out against a french qualifier. Andy Murray didn’t repeat the mistake today, but plenty of other big priced winners are coming in today.
Even if you oppose short priced favourites, thanks to the volatility in Tennis, the results can be excellent. Don’t forget to fire up Tennis Trader to check out your potential up or downside in each match before you trade.
Extra rest will help Djokovic
Andy Murray booked his place in a second successive Australian Open final following his four set victory over David Ferrer.
While Murray has looked solid throughout the tournament, the outstanding Novak Djokovic stands in the way of the Scot’s Grand Slam dream having beaten Roger Federer in the other semi-final. The Serbian is chasing his second Aussie Open title and has had an extra days rest before Sunday’s showdown.
The head-to-head record stands at 4-3 in Djokovic’s favour, although Murray has won the last three matches. Interestingly, the pair have never played a five set match against one another. Further encouragement for Murray is that the past two victories have come in ATP finals, in Miami and Cincinnati – both on the hard court.
Murray has been fantastic at mixing up pace and spin on his way to the final and that is his best chance of success. In contrast, Djokovic will rely on his immense power that will test the Murray’s defensive prowess to the limit.
It’s sure to be an epic finale and as Murray pointed out after his semi, both players are in pretty good shape. With little to separate them, the 2.08 available for over 41.5 games looks tempting.
Outright, it’s hard to go against the world number three. Beating Federer 3-0 will have given Djokovic all the belief he needs and will likely start the stronger of the pair given his extra recuperation time. Back Djokovic at 1.74 now as I suspect he might win the first set and shorten slightly.
ATP World Tour Finals – player by player
The World’s eight best male tennis stars get trade blows in the climax to the tennis season, the ATP World Tour Final, which gets underway at the O2 Arena in London on Sunday. Obviously Bet Angel’s Tennis Trader tool will help when it comes to trading the matches but a few observations on the key players may also help if trading their outright odds…
Rafa Nadal (world ranking 1) – Regularly crocked, it’s no surprise that Rafa tends to end the season poorly as his dodgy knees tire. He is number one for a reason though, but it should be pointed out that most of his ranking points were won at the Grand Slams in the longer format tournaments. Hasn’t played for a month so perhaps be prepared to initially lay in his early matches.
Roger Federer (2) – In solid form, he won at Basel earlier this month. We know you can never underestimate Fed who is favourite for the title, but given his group draw, his odds for the title may drift early on. Alongside him in Group B Andy Murray has an excellent 8/13 record over the Swiss star, while Robin Soderling is capable of beating anyone in his current form.
Novak Djokovic (3) – Winner at the equivalent event in 2008, in contrast to Nadal, Djokovic often puts in his stronger performances at the tail-end of the ATP calendar.
Robin Soderling (4) – The form player. Winner last weekend at the Paris Masters, he can be backed for the tournament at 10/1. He’s odds against in his opener against Murray, but bear in mind that the Swede has just usurped the Scot as the World’s fourth-ranked player.
Andy Murray (5) – Possibly still nursing a slight wrist injury, so might assume his shot making and first-serve percentages to fall as his round-robin matches progress.
Don’t ignore the remaining players Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer and Andy Roddick though. The quality of the contestants means that the gap between the favourites and the outsiders is probably closer than the odds suggest. Last year, one of the event’s weaker players Nikolay Davydenko beat Juan-Martin Del Potro in the final – both are absent this year.
Murray vs Fish
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on August 20th, 2010
This match caught my eye this evening because of the match they played at Queens earlier this year.
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2010/06/10/bad-light-stops-fish/
I think this could be a good trading match as Murray is ranked higher but Fish has won the last two encounters. Tennis Trader predicts Murray will be trading at 1.19 or thereabouts if he wins the first set.
As this is a three set match you will see some lovely swings if the match goes to 1-1. The last set should throw up some huge swings if it’s competitive.
Bad light stops fish
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 10th, 2010
A great Tennis trading match today and a classic bit of sportsman ship from Mardy Fish. Fish wins the first set 6-4, Murray storms back to win the next set 6-1. Fish goes three up in the final set, Murray rallies to tie the match at 3-3. With the momentum behind him, Murray feels he can finish Fish off. But Fish does the ‘professional’ thing and ends the match due to ‘bad light’. If Fish was under pressure in that last set, he just got a reprieve. Murray will have to find his momentum again tomorrow. Good practice for Wimbledon all round.
I think the press reported this poorly as it was clearly an attempt by Fish to fight another day. Murray was right.
Video here: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/8734199.stm
Murray serves up another great trade
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on May 31st, 2009
If the Tennis carries on like this we could be in for a cracking warm up to Wimbledon. Murray again stuttered at the start of this match today, but fought back to take the first set. A weary Tipsarevic then retired after losing. Very similar scenario to the previous Murray trade. Murray is on court again today, so worth taking a look in what is likely to be a more competitive match.
Magnificent Murray
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on September 12th, 2008
Two years after beating Federer at the Cinny Masters Andy Murray finally managed to get the same masters title under his belt and move up to an all time six in the world rankings. The final showed that there is plenty of room for improvement. Djokovic never managed to put any real pressure on Murray’s serve but Murray still had to battle out a 7-6 7-6 victory. The game should have been long over before the final tie break was played out.
Over the last couple of years I’ve worked hard to improve my understanding of Tennis and how it is priced and late on in the second set there was some clear opportunities to back Murray at good odds. Due to the scoreline the odds were accurate but it was clear from a dominance and psychological perspective Murray was in the ascendancy. Right near the end of the match, thanks to the two set format, you could have backed Murray at 1.37 when he was only a matter of points away from the title. However, Murray’s inability to convert his advantage would have had you sweating now and again. Still, a pleasing chunk of opportunities occurred in the game.
Such is Murray’s inconsistency though, that he has subsequently crashed out in Beijing at the first attempt to somebody ranked 71 places below him. Still a work in progress.