Posts Tagged arsenal
Champions league qualifiers
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 24th, 2011
An intruiging bunch of matches this evening. Several are priced for a great deal of uncertainty and that can create some good opportunities. I reckon we should be in for another 13/14 goals in the matches this evening. The matches are much more complex this evening, so after my tip last night, I’ll duck a tip this evening!
Arsenal can win in Udinese but it’s not going to be straight forward. I’ll be monitoring the first half and making a few decisions from there.
Champions league
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 16th, 2011
Well that was a cracking start to the champions league knock out stages!
The cat has been well and truly put amongst the pigeons with Spurs win in Milan. Harry’s steps towards legendary status are getting quite common now. Can Arsenal over turn Barcelona this evening? It would be a memorable night if they could and this match has my attention. Arsenal can’t afford to concede but must really win to have any chance in Barcelona. Barca will have no expectation other than a win on their mind. Since that infamous match against Chelsea a few seasons ago I am sure it will be an electric evening at the Emirates. I sense Barca will try and soak up the pressure and hit Arsenal on the counter. After the fireworks of last night, my contrary manner makes me want to step aside the emotion and do something around Barca. However, at this tight stage it often makes sense to back the outsider and trade out at half time if things haven’t happened. Should be an intriguing match.
Adopt Arsenal business model
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 16th, 2011
If you remember this post where I was commenting on how impressed I was with Arsenal’s business model. Well it seems FIFA is as well.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/9358589.stm
I think, for the long term future of the game, it makes sense to engage on sensible terms.
I remember when I was young. I would pay £1.50 to stand on the terraces, stuffing my face with a hot dog, getting smoke wafted in my face, BUT you really could believe that your team could win any game. You also could relate to the striker who grew up just down the road from you and who was banging in goals for your team. You could easily be on the end of that ball!
Now you pay £300 to sit, down, in a plastic chair and watch opposing players reluctantly pass to somebody on £150k a week who can’t speak English very well. Home grown players are a rare sight and loyalty is a thing of the past. OK, times move on, but one thing I like about some sports is that you can still live the dream. It’s never easy to get to the top of a sport, but I can play at Belfry and hole the same putt that a Ryder Cup golfer can. If I play golf well enough, it’s not unrealistic that I could get into a tournament. I don’t think you can say the same for football any longer. It’s lost it’s soul, from there its a slippery path IMHO.
Making clubs thing more realistically is a step in the right direction and levels the playing field a bit. Maybe there is hope left.
Arsenal’s price shoots out
The draw for the first knockout stage of the Champions League has been made and of the four English clubs in the competition Arsenal have been dealt the toughest two-legged clash by drawing Barcelona.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the price for the Gunners to win the tournament immediately doubled subsequent to the draw from around 15 to 30. Traders watching the proceedings may have been able to see that Arsenal were to draw Barca, anticipate the shift and beat the hordes to lay and back at the higher price. Well done if you did!
You may remember Lionel Messi’s four goals against Arsenal at the quarter final stage last year and for those who think he is likely to do so again, his odds to be the competition’s top scorer will prove attractive, even at 3.0. Chelsea’s Nicholas Anelka has five CL goals to his name so far this season and considering he will go against big outsiders FC Copenhagen next, his 13.0 to get the golden boot could also shorten after his side’s round of 32 match.
Full draw is as follows: Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk, AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Valencia v Schalke, Inter Milan v Bayern Munich, Lyon v Real Madrid, Arsenal v Barcelona, Marseille v Manchester United, FC Copenhagen v Chelsea.
Arsenal vs West Ham
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 30th, 2010
Compiled some premier league ratings today but didn’t get time to put them up this morning.
Anyhow, top of expected list of goals was Arsenal vs West Ham at nearly 3.5 goals. Given that this match is now at 0-0 at half time, but there has been plenty of goal mouth action. I think there is a lot of value here in terms of backing an Arsenal win or laying a low goal tally. Counter arguments are that is a local derby and West Ham will have a good incentive to nick a point with a backs to the wall approach, but you feel Arsenal should win this. Even moreso given how the first half has gone.
I’m going to give it a go. I may not get it right this time, but with the same set up in the future I think I will get it more right than wrong.
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 16th, 2010
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I will be keep tabs on Blackpool.
Liverpool’s match against Arsenal was interesting and it played out pretty much as expected. Liverpool didn’t want to lose and neither did Arsenal. But Arsenal were lucky in the end to get the point. I still don’t think that Liverpool are title challengers.
Andy Murray did a fantastic job in defeating Nadal and Federer on his way to the title in Toronto. You shouldn’t read too much emphasis on this title. Most elite athletes will focus on key objectives. Nadal will be very focused on the US open in this tournament will have been a prep for that but not the real deal. Both Nadal and Federer will not be too disappointed at losing. But an excellent win nonetheless for Murray given his path to the title.
I got some kudos at the weekend for correctly predicting the result and score from Portsmouth vs Reading match. The local newspaper asked me to do a write up. So I guess I will be asked again until my luck runs out!
Return of the hulk
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 9th, 2010
I like this stage of the champions league. Something has to happen for a team to go through.
Arsenal are priced to beat Porto but there are many permutations available which mean that both sides have a big incentive to score. The market has been pretty accurate as a reflection of that. It is pricing in just under three goals with nearly a goal advantage to Arsenal. Usually you would expect these to be tight contests, but an early goal would create a significant incentive for another goal hence the pricing.
Arsenal have not turned around a first leg deficit in Europe since November 1 1978 but do have the advantage of the away goal. Wenger confirmed the importance of the away goal in a recent interview. ““Having the away goal is massive,” he said. “When you don’t have it you think that if we concede we are nearly dead.” On the flip side Porto don’t have a great record at the Emirates.
Porto have been patchy since the first leg. They thrashed second-place Braga 5-1 but then lost to Sporting Lisbon 3-0 and only salvaged 2-2 draw at lowly Olhanense thanks to an injury time goal. Should be a good game, Arsenal can’t afford to sit back and Porto need that away goal. My biggest ever win on champions league match came courtesy of Porto at Man Utd, so I’ll have above average interest in the game.
Arsenal vs Celtic
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 26th, 2009
With the end of the evening racing I’ve finally put my footie head on. Market is priced for 3 goals with Arsenal expected to score at least a couple of those. From a stats perspective the price on Arsenal and Celtic is about right. If pushed for a price I would offer 1.40 on Arsenal and 11 on Celtic, looks like a Arsenal win! But I would also offer only 5′s on the draw which means there is some value in that.
I’ve put some thought into the match and popped up a video for you: -