Posts Tagged ascot
That’ll do nicely
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 17th, 2011
I had a feeling Saturday would turn out to be an interesting day, so I pulled out all stops to take advantage. I did well and it was a real pleasure to net my best day ever (At least before commission).
I managed to pick up a lot of decent results from a wide spectrum of events on both exchanges. Thanks to favourable commission rates and favourable liquidity conditions on Betdaq, it meant I found it pretty easy to beat my post commission Betfair totals on a lot of events. Overall I’m really chuffed with how it went. I’m picking and choosing my targets nowadays, so I’m glad I got Saturday just about right.
I’d happily recommend using both exchanges now, as I think both are perfectly tradable. I may not have said that a couple of years ago. It’s a big positive that we have two viable exchanges now. Yes, liquidity is lower on Betdaq, but it’s growing and there are fewer strange things going on over there, which makes it a bit easier. That also means the actual fill rate is higher in a lot of cases and that reduces overall risk. I note that different sports are at different levels of liquidity at the moment. But if history is anything to go by I think that may change. I guess either may suit different people and styles, so I suggest you try both. However, if you run both versions of Bet Angel next to each other you can see that both exchanges more or less track each other, but sometimes they do slip apart.
Betdaq is used by the vast majority of on-course bookmakers so you can possibly see some late hedging going on now and again. But more or less they are similar. A price held up on Betfair very often does the same thing on Betdaq, but at that point Betdaq often shows a ‘cleaner’ path forward. In short I think it’s worth having both up now as you can get an extra dimension to the markets.
The market is an ever ebbing and flowing tide so I’m always on the look out for anything that is changing shape or form. I’ll keep you informed. Something curious happened to me recently, I’ll see if I can post up later this week.
Anyhow here are a couple of highlights from Saturday. I’m going to talk about these at my next course on the 17th November. These were NOT the biggest results of the day, but there were two of the most satisfying:-
Good start to a good day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 15th, 2011
Got up early this morning to give the Caulfield cup a bash and got it just right for a really good result.
We have a ton of really good racing at Ascot today so that should produce some really good potential as well. I am sure everybody will be keen to see Frankel run again and at such short odds you would expect the win to be a formality.
Such short odds in such a big race will mean the market is stuffed full of money on both sides of the book. While this sounds great it can be a bit of a mare as the fill rate will drop and this will increase the risk you are taking in the market. In line with my recent policy I will be using both Betfair and Betdaq today. This is because the fill rate on this race will most likely be higher on Betdaq. I reckon I could get a really good result on this race on Betdaq so I will be putting more funds into my account to give it a really good bash. It’s worth getting Betdaq Angel fired up and ready to go on this race if you find yourself stuck behind £50k on Betfair.
Domestic football is back into the fold today and the Rugby world cup semi finals will also add to the interest today. It’s going to be a busy day!
Final day of a busy week
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 18th, 2011
Well done to Rory McIlroy who continued to rip through the US Open. Unfortunately this scuppered my trade which needs a competitive field to work. At 1.40ish this leaves only one possible strategy, to back or lay McIlroy. I reckon most people will lay McIlroy given his blow up in the US Masters. It’s a clear fact however, that the error most people make is to take past trends and extrapolate them into the future. Rather than go on gut instinct, I’m going to knock up a spreadsheet this morning and see just what McIlroy has to do to hold onto his six shot lead over 36 holes. I reckon he has learned from his Augusta disaster, he certainly interviewed well last night.
Ascot was tougher yesterday, but I’m well ahead of last year year; I have done well to learn from my experience last year. I don’t think I’ll be able to manage a record but you never know. I’ve aimed for my second best ever and will see where I end up. I managed to pick up some decent results from other races yesterday so that balanced things out. Overall it’s been a good week.
Royal Ascot / Open Golf Thursday
Posted by Peter Webb in Golf, Horse Racing on June 17th, 2011
Another good day in the bag for Royal Ascot, but I left it late today. I didn’t get a real blockbuster race till near the end of the card. I had to work much harder than yesterday and I took my foot of Betdaq, as working harder meant I couldn’t keep focus on two exchanges effectively. I did broaden my activity out on Betdaq though to other races and they worked well. So after Ascot I’m going to continue my work there.
I did have a hiccup mid afternoon when my Internet connection went down. Quick as a flash I went to my back up connection and continued, but I never found out why it was only my main machine that failed. A quick reboot between races brought it back to life.
Overall, The weather made the markets a bit jumpy and there were some real moves around. The biggest was when the trainer of a horse came on and said his horse was unlikely to win because of the ground. See the graph below for what happened next. The weather has been incredibly poor this week and heavy rain has set in again this morning. So I think we could be in for another tricky day today unfortunately.
I got off to a great start on the US open golf, so it looks like it is going to be a very good week indeed. Here is a list of the top ten +ve movers overnight.
Rory McIlroy – 23 to 3.8
Charl Schwartzel – 80 to 14.5
Sergio Garcia – 90 to 25
Y. E. Yang – 170 to 24
Graeme McDowell – 70 to 28
Bubba Watson – 55 to 38
Louis Oosthuizen – 250 to 32
Brandt Snedeker – 70 to 38
Jason Day – 46 to 36
Stewart Cink – 100 to 50
For a full list of movers, visit the forum.
Ascot – Day one summary
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 15th, 2011
I thought that went quite well. I struggled last year but this year was ok and I could have done better if I was a bit more aggressive. In hindsight I was too passive yesterday, didn’t take on board enough risk. So I’ll give myself an 8/10 as it was good, but I could have done better.
Frankel made a bit of a mess of the feature race of the day and the market on Frankel was so strong that it soaked up two £200k+ bets with hardly a blip. I told some delegates at during the morning workshop today what would happen to the price of Frankel in the run up to the race and I am glad to say I was spot on. That made it a good trade.
As I predicted Betdaq markets were showing a lot of strength yesterday and therefore I now forecast this for the rest of the meeting. There were some races that I did better on one or the other exchange, but the fact that both are very tradable is a huge bonus. You also have to lop 20% off the Betfair result, so the incentive to trade on Betdaq is high. I’m beginning to widen my activity to other markets as well, now that I have a feel for the big races. Not without its difficulty and I am not 100% focused on Betdaq at all times, but the effort is proving worthwhile.
This morning I had to go out to buy a new suit for a wedding. But this evening I’ll analyse some of the data from the first couple of days and give you an insight into how the market is shaping up.
Royal Ascot day one
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 14th, 2011
An intriguing day one at Ascot. After all, what colour hat will the Queen be wearing. LOL!
I’ll be all guns on the first day to work out what feel the market brings this year. I’ve paid a lot of attention to Ascot over the years and each year we see the market shift subtly in one direction or the other. I didn’t do a very good job of it last year, comparatively speaking, so I’ll want to put in a better performance this year. I’ll be gathering lots of data to analyse and offer some opinion as we move through the week.
I don’t fancy the first race today at all, but the remaining races seem to throw up some clear opportunities; I’m looking forward to getting stuck into those. The St’James palace stakes already has £600k matched on it at 8am this morning, mainly thanks to the participation of Frankel. Can’t wait to see how Frankel runs.
If you reflect on comments made about previous big meetings on the blog. I suggest you fund your Betdaq account and start using it on Ascot this week. I strongly suspect Ascot will generate very favourable markets on Betdaq. Betdaq Angel is free to use, so download a copy ready to unleash your fury on the markets!
I wish you the very best of luck at Ascot this week.
Ascot
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 15th, 2010
It’s that time of year when the Queen nips out the house and down the road to have a fiver or two on a few nags. I’ll also be looking to put a few fivers on them as well, but from behind my desk. When I’ve finished all my work on betting exchanges, maybe I will nip up the road for once! Ascot has always been a key part of the summer racing and it’s no surprise with five days of wall to wall quality on display this week. I’m actually not that optimistic that I will do as well as in previous years. There are two reasons behind my change in sentiment.
First, volumes on key races on Betfair have been falling away a lot this year. I am always careful to note the volume and activity on the big races as they can make a good month a great one. So far this year, nearly all the big races have seen drops in traded volume. Second, the fill rate at these big meetings has been falling off as well. This makes it much harder to hit the heights I have in previous years. I’m not particulary despondant, it just means that I may not be able to get some of the bigger totals I have seen in previous years. Also, I am picking up more and more in the day to day racing which is more than compensating. Currently I am about a ‘month’ ahead of where I was this time last year at the moment. I’ll just have to keep trying to find new and better ways for my activity this week.
This year I will also be trading using Betdaq at Ascot. Where fill rate and sitting behind a massive order queue is a problem on Betfair, it doesn’t appear to be a problem on Betdaq. It sits in that busy but not too busy area. This has meant it has become quite a viable trading platform during the big meetings. During the day to day stuff the liquidity isn’t quite enough to work well or to use big stakes but I have noticed that it ‘feels’ just right during the big races. Worth a try in my opinion if you can’t get on with these markets on Betfair, which I know a lot of traders do struggle on. I put up a video on You Tube recently about trading on Betdaq, but this is more on the lower liquidity stuff. I will try both Betfair and Betdaq this Ascot, as I’ll need to work hard this week I feel.
Whatever you do this week, Good luck!
The Queen tries some tic tac