Posts Tagged ashes
Some winter cheer
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 26th, 2010
One look at the racing card will echo what you will have seen for the last month or so, abandoned racing. It’s the worst period I have known in my ten years on Betfair, pretty bleak. Boxing day usually brings a whole slew of opportunity and some top quality action at Kempton. Today, out of the 11 meetings due to take place today, only one hasn’t been abandoned as I write this, and there is a real prospect of that remaining fixture being lost. This has be costing racing a fortune.
On the upside I was up early this morning to watch the Ashes and feeling there was value in England, see yesterday’s blog, I was lovely and green when I rose to watch the match. I also did of a bit of racing in Caulfied and Randwick to top up the account.
It looks like a thaw is about to set in this week but the forecast is ominous again at the moment for the end of the week. Let’s hope the weather returns to normal again and we don’t experiance a ’63 winter again. I’ve almost forgotten what it’s like to have a normal day!
Overreaction to Aussie supremacy?
Having taken a look at the stats in preparation for the fourth Ashes Test down under, one of the things that has really stood out is that there has not been a draw at the MCG since 1997. In that period there have been 10 Australian victories and England were beaten by an innings and 99 runs the last time the sides clashed.
There’s no denying that the Baggy Greens have an excellent record at the MCG, but traders should remember that the Aussies are a shadow of the team they were last time England visited the imposing venue.
Other than the batting collapse in Perth, England have been the dominant side in the series and their price – they were available at 3.25 on Betdaq at time of writing - looks longer than it should be for this pivotal contest. Unlike the pitch in Perth, the MCG track will help negate the pace attack from the Aussies while also allowing spinner Graeme Swann to have a say in the result, something he was largely denied last time.
Overall England look the better value to win the Boxing Day clash and that of course would mean a British return for the urn. I would certainly expect England’s price come in a fair bit towards the middle of the contest.
Trade the Ashes to Adelaide…
Australia enter the second Ashes Test under intense pressure after being humiliated by England, who managed to turn around the first Test in Brisbane last week.
The Adelaide Oval, venue for the Second Test, was once famous for throwing up frequent draws, although there have only been three here since 1991.
If anyone’s considering laying the draw on Betfair or Betdaq (currently trading at 2.06), I wouldn’t disagree with them, despite Australia seemingly lacking a convincingly reliable wicket taker and cooler weather forecast which will probably not help the pitch to break up. However, I will point out the potential benefits of backing now before laying off after day one.
The Oval track is undoubtedly a batsman’s pitch and we are likely to see some big totals on the first couple of days. If the batting team have racked up a hefty score without the loss of too many wickets, the price for a draw is sure to shorten to odds-on, at which point you can lay off to lock in a profit.
Busy week ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on November 23rd, 2010
World tour finals Tennis in London, top quality stuff afternoon and evening. Champions league football and then cricket throws in its hat with the Ashes. Going to be a great week to exit November!