Posts Tagged australia
14 out of 14!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 8th, 2011
Black Caviar was out again at Caulfied this morning and made it 14 starts and 14 wins. Impressive stuff, as was the amount of money backing this undefeated horse. I slept on the sofa for the first part of the night so I could get up in the early hours to have a look at the race. Wouldn’t it be great to see a match up with Frankel? What a race that would be!
Doing a Moonee
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 25th, 2011
Tuned in to the William Reid stakes this morning at Moonee Valley in Australia to check on the market and progress of the best sprinter in the world at the moment, Black Caviar. I doubt if many people outside of the UK have paid much attention to this horse but having seen the odds on it get shorter in each successive race I think it’s obvious something special is going on here.
Even at the remarkably short odds she was at this morning, she still turned out to be good value with a comfortable victory. Just short of 99% of the money on the race was matched on the favourite.
Overreaction to Aussie supremacy?
Having taken a look at the stats in preparation for the fourth Ashes Test down under, one of the things that has really stood out is that there has not been a draw at the MCG since 1997. In that period there have been 10 Australian victories and England were beaten by an innings and 99 runs the last time the sides clashed.
There’s no denying that the Baggy Greens have an excellent record at the MCG, but traders should remember that the Aussies are a shadow of the team they were last time England visited the imposing venue.
Other than the batting collapse in Perth, England have been the dominant side in the series and their price – they were available at 3.25 on Betdaq at time of writing - looks longer than it should be for this pivotal contest. Unlike the pitch in Perth, the MCG track will help negate the pace attack from the Aussies while also allowing spinner Graeme Swann to have a say in the result, something he was largely denied last time.
Overall England look the better value to win the Boxing Day clash and that of course would mean a British return for the urn. I would certainly expect England’s price come in a fair bit towards the middle of the contest.
Trade the Ashes to Adelaide…
Australia enter the second Ashes Test under intense pressure after being humiliated by England, who managed to turn around the first Test in Brisbane last week.
The Adelaide Oval, venue for the Second Test, was once famous for throwing up frequent draws, although there have only been three here since 1991.
If anyone’s considering laying the draw on Betfair or Betdaq (currently trading at 2.06), I wouldn’t disagree with them, despite Australia seemingly lacking a convincingly reliable wicket taker and cooler weather forecast which will probably not help the pitch to break up. However, I will point out the potential benefits of backing now before laying off after day one.
The Oval track is undoubtedly a batsman’s pitch and we are likely to see some big totals on the first couple of days. If the batting team have racked up a hefty score without the loss of too many wickets, the price for a draw is sure to shorten to odds-on, at which point you can lay off to lock in a profit.
Set back for Betfair Australia
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 18th, 2010
Scott reports on his blog that Racing NSW has won an appeal on what is clearly a discriminatory tactic against Betfair. Unless Betfair can overturn the ruling it’s a game changer in this territory for exchanges.
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2010/11/racing-nsw-wins-racefields-legislation.html
Shocking
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 16th, 2010
Good volume on the Caulfield cup in Melbourne this morning, £1.25m was traded on this high profile race and it produced some nice moves. The favourite, shocking, was defeated on heavy ground by Descarado trained by the colourful Gai Waterhouse. I had no idea she was Scottish!!
Shocking is also in key contention for the Melbourne cup, maybe the ground will be more suitable there. It’s been a good session this morning and ideal practice for the Melbourne Cup.
Odds chart for shocking
Well done England
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 18th, 2010
Has the feel good spirit started for English sport? The English cricketers comprehensively won the 20/20 Cricket world cup on Sunday, can the English football team respond by wining their world cup? I doubt it, but it’s nice to dream, even if that is all it becomes. Well done to the Cricketers though, not only does it take skill to win something but a little psychological mettle and some luck. The English win was a definite and deserved victory though I feel. I’m not just saying that from bias, it looked to me like a comprehensive victory across the tournament.
I played around in the market but not being a cricket specialist I didn’t achieve anything of any significance. Such was the nature of Englands victory that a collapse never happened and I never feel comfortable chasing short and shortening odds. However, here is the graphs of odds for you for your interest: -
