Posts Tagged australian open
Bumps and ripples
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel, Tennis on January 26th, 2012
What can you tell about a Tennis match before it has started? Quite a lot actually.
The market is pretty accurate at discounting value into a match and assessing the relative strengths of different players, from that you can plot the most likely path through a match and its progression. You can also hunt for bumps and ripples in that path for odds that are most likely to be reached and how. If you do this, you will see that as a match progresses through various stages, certain odds are more likely than others. Of course this shifts as the match moves on, but if you look these values up before the start you can pick and target certain entry and exit points in advance and benefit from this foresight.
Here is a chart of today’s match between Federer and Nadal. I built it using Tennis Trader and it highlights, sometimes subtly, where some of these bumps and ripples are. On the axis you can see the frequency of occurance and on the x axis, the scoreline.
Aussie open – open!
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on January 15th, 2012
Just about to head off to bed, but in half an hour the Australian open tennis will kick into gear. It’s a great opportunity to get stuck into the Tennis, even if you are not into Tennis, as a lot of matches will appear in the UK early in the morning when not much else is going on.
I have set up Bet Angel to do some simple automation in the early rounds of the tournament as I know where the most volatile matches are likely to be. Bet Angel will be out on watch for me tonight to trade these matches if they reach a critical point. I’ll wake up tomorrow morning to see how it’s got on.
I’m looking forward to the first grand slam of 2012, let’s hope it’s a vintage year.
Rafa added some venom to the build-up
Fireworks in Melbourne
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on January 26th, 2011
Happy Australia day to our antipodean users this morning!
Some decent late night / early morning activity in Melbourne this morning as an injured Nadal struggles to fight of Ferrer in his quarter final match. This could be a significant moment in the tournament, so tune in immediately to take advantage if you can. When the Australia day fireworks force a break in this game the trainer can treat Nadal and that could be a pivotal moment.
Overnight success
Posted by Peter Webb in Tennis on January 20th, 2011
How would you like to go to bed only to wake up in the morning to a successful trade?
While I’m enjoying doing the Austrailian open, a lot of the early round matches take place at hours I just can’t cover. Judging by the liquidity, this is the case for a lot of people in this market. So, why not take a different angle on things and place some trades to get matched overnight in-play?
Using Tennis trader, I can look up a match due to take place early tomorrow morning and place a trade to take advantage of movements that could take place. By laying a couple of prices into the market and keeping those bets through to the in-play period you can profit.
Say I lay two bets at 1.50 for £10, if both are matched I will profit by £5 on my £10 stake. How could both get matched? That is where the predictive capacity of Tennis trader comes in. By looking at the strength of both players and their propensity to break serve or take a set I can look at scenarios where either player could reach odds of 1.50. If I feel that scenario is likely or could be common given the scores I see, then the trade is on.
Try it yourself for small stakes.