Posts Tagged barcelona
Champions League
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 28th, 2011
Everybody else will be posting about it so I thought I would add my two penneth worth.
An intriguing clash, for once I think I will watch this than trade it.
A neutral venue but Man Utd will practically be at home, so you would have to favour Barca but discount some of the neutrality. I think this is the weakest Man Utd team for a while. Other teams really should have put in a stronger challenge for the premier league this season, but we all know the stories behind that.
These sort of matches are difficult to price, so I would suggest it’s the sort of match where you could find some value once a pattern develops in the match. It’s so delicately balanced and both teams have a huge incentive to win tactics will play an important role.
The market is saying 2.40 goals, slightly above normal for this type of match, with a 0.40 advantage to Barcelona. This is effectively saying this is a very even match but Barcelona are at ‘at home’, they have the equivalent of home advantage. I think it’s more uneven than that, but a lot will depending on whether there is an early goal. That will really set the agenda. I’ve had a delve through my database for similar matches, but they are all a bit inconclusive to be honest.
I would recommend seeing how the opening exchanges are playing out and getting involved from there. It’s difficult to make any firm judgements before the off, but I’m leaning on the side of Barcelona. I am hoping for an entertaining match!
Forgone conclusion?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 3rd, 2011
You can’t help but think, like the rest of the community, that the two champions league semi finals are forgone conclusions. I looked at the weekend markets and curiously all teams lost, so no clues in there. But it was possible to start opposing Man Utd after it dawned to me that they may have half an eye on the semi final.
The market is discounting a win by one goal for Barcelona tonight but much depends on whether Real Madrid throw the kitchen sink at them. They need at least a goal and that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons. I remember the famous Mourinho draw at Old Trafford that put Man Utd out a few years ago. I’m going to try and work some money into the market and go for an outside chance. I’ll likely know by half time whether this is likely or not.
Man Utd don’t have the strongest team of recent years but should be able to get past Schalke. There performance was a bit tepid over the weekend but, looking at the stats, were a little unlucky to lose against Arsenal. I think this semi final is a little more favouable to Utd. If the do progress they a have lot to worry about when it comes to the final and the league run in will not be helpful.
Strange things can happen in knockout competitions
Farcelona
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 28th, 2011
That was the word on the street after the sending off last night. It seems a common trait to dislike success, but you can’t escape the fact that Barcelona have proved on many occasions that they are by far the best team in the tournament and did so again last night. It’s just such a shame they have often degraded their performances with gamesmanship.
It’s also a shame that the first leg was a duplicate of the other semi final, as they both are now set up for uncompetitive second legs. That will reduce the ability to get a decent trade away on either. It’s unfortunate that the early rounds threw up so much opportunity, but the later rounds have done little. I lost money last night but much less than I made on the other semi final. You can’t win them all!
Still, here’s looking forward to a Man Utd vs Barcelona final. I think this would be intriguing as, while it is at a neutral venue, Man Utd will practically be at home I suspect. It will be interesting to see how the stats discount this into a price for the final. That’s what I am keeping my eye on now.
Sending off offence?
Dropa del rey
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 21st, 2011
Look at this image. Police men, firemen, bus stopped, everybody rushing to aid the dire situation at hand. Looks nasty, but infact it wasn’t a pedestrian under the wheels of this bus, it was the Copa del rey! For a video of the most entertaining part of this 0-0 draw view the following: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/13155619.stm
Champions league
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 16th, 2011
Well that was a cracking start to the champions league knock out stages!
The cat has been well and truly put amongst the pigeons with Spurs win in Milan. Harry’s steps towards legendary status are getting quite common now. Can Arsenal over turn Barcelona this evening? It would be a memorable night if they could and this match has my attention. Arsenal can’t afford to concede but must really win to have any chance in Barcelona. Barca will have no expectation other than a win on their mind. Since that infamous match against Chelsea a few seasons ago I am sure it will be an electric evening at the Emirates. I sense Barca will try and soak up the pressure and hit Arsenal on the counter. After the fireworks of last night, my contrary manner makes me want to step aside the emotion and do something around Barca. However, at this tight stage it often makes sense to back the outsider and trade out at half time if things haven’t happened. Should be an intriguing match.
Arsenal’s price shoots out
The draw for the first knockout stage of the Champions League has been made and of the four English clubs in the competition Arsenal have been dealt the toughest two-legged clash by drawing Barcelona.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the price for the Gunners to win the tournament immediately doubled subsequent to the draw from around 15 to 30. Traders watching the proceedings may have been able to see that Arsenal were to draw Barca, anticipate the shift and beat the hordes to lay and back at the higher price. Well done if you did!
You may remember Lionel Messi’s four goals against Arsenal at the quarter final stage last year and for those who think he is likely to do so again, his odds to be the competition’s top scorer will prove attractive, even at 3.0. Chelsea’s Nicholas Anelka has five CL goals to his name so far this season and considering he will go against big outsiders FC Copenhagen next, his 13.0 to get the golden boot could also shorten after his side’s round of 32 match.
Full draw is as follows: Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk, AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Valencia v Schalke, Inter Milan v Bayern Munich, Lyon v Real Madrid, Arsenal v Barcelona, Marseille v Manchester United, FC Copenhagen v Chelsea.
