Posts Tagged bayern munich

Champions league

Tonight’s matches should generate on average around 23 goals. I’d rank most to least: -

Real Madrid vs Ajax
Man Utd vs FC Basel
B Munich vs Man City
Lyon vs Dinamo Zagreb
Otelul Galati vs Benfica
Napoli vs Villarreal
Trabzonspor vs Lille
CSKA Moscow vs Inter

I much prefer the knockout stage of the competition or the latter stages of the group stages when incentive to score is highest.

Stat of the evening for you. There is around an early 60′s% percent chance that B Munich could take the lead at some point during the match against Man City.

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Champions league final

Nothing unusual in that this match has been priced for a low scoring, tight contest. Inter are being priced for a slight edge and I think the market is right. Unless Bayern get their tactics very right I think Inter are set up well to win.

Curiously the match is exhibiting exactly the same characteristics as the Portsmouth vs AC Milan match in 2008. A similar match recently was Sporting Lisbon vs Porto. My stats are showing slightly more goals than are being priced into the market but as this is a neutral ground and an important final I think I would need to shave those down anyhow.

Simply due to the volume, I will definately have an interest in this match as there are plenty of things that should work. But I’ll be focusing on lack of goals to generate some profit.

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