Posts Tagged betfair
Underrated strategy
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 27th, 2010
I covered the ‘lay the field’ strategy in some depth in racing ahead magazine a couple of months or so ago, it’s an easy strategy that works well and has been popular amongst exchange users for years. On Bet Angel you just need to set the odds, a value and click to lay the field.
To make it work, all you need to do is look for a market with a great deal of uncertainty about it. One market that was well qualified recently to fulfil this criteria was the Aston Villa next manager market. In fact most next manager markets exhibit similar characteristics and you can profit if you lay the field early on in these markets. A competitive handicap in racing over a short distance can also be fun!
Currently in the Aston Villa next manager market, these are the lowest traded odds: -
Bob Bradley – 1.43
Sven GE – 2.00
Kevin MacDonland – 2.32
Martin Jol – 5.00
Gareth Southgate – 6.00
Laying the field at less than 3.00′s would have been a viable strategy here and it’s possible that others may still come into contention.
A worthwhile strategy in your armoury.
Paddy Powers on
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 25th, 2010
It’s easy to forget in this modern age of betting exchanges that traditional bookmakers are still around and still going strong. Paddy Power just released results which showed that gross win was up 117% to €112m and operating profit up 66% to €36.1m. Online betting accounts for 73% of the group’s operating profit.
Paddy Power said profit before tax for the six months to June 30 grew 54% to €52.5m. In 2009 Betfair earned £42m for the whole year.
Paddy Power said an “exceptional” World Cup tournament generated total gross win of €18m (€12m in the period), a more than four-fold increase compared to Euro 2008 and the World Cup 2006.
Betfair eyes up filipino
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 24th, 2010
Having made its first major move into the Asian gaming market last year with an agreement to provide IT solutions to Interactive Entertainment Solutions Technologies (IEST), operator of a betting exchange in the Philippines, Betfair has now been offered a 40 per cent stake in IEST worth US$15m by Philippines-based Diversified Financial Network Inc (DFNN).
DFNN notified the Philippine Stock Exchange this week that IEST and Betfair had defined an option agreement for Betfair to acquire a 40 per cent stake in the company at a value of $15m. DFNN told the Philippine Stock Exchange that Betfair’s option to acquire the stake is valid until August 19th 2011 and may be exercised at any time before expiry.
IEST is a unit of Pacific Gaming Investments Pte Ltd, owned by Diversified Financial Network Inc – a leading IT solutions provider in the Philippines.
Betfair for the iPad
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 12th, 2010
I see Betfair have launched an iPad app. I quickly downloaded it but there isn’t a great deal to it at the moment, so don’t rush.
As the iPad has a much bigger screen it is possible to log in and operate via the Betfair web site which works pretty well, thought the username and password entry can be a pain. Simple additions like viewing my P&L for the day would make this app useful but that’s not available, just an account balance etc, the same as on the iPhone app. Also, like the iPhone, it uses the battery hungry location services to make sure you are betting from a legal territory, this is a real pain. Unless Betfair improve this app, I don’t really see it being of great use to me at the moment.
However, If you are interested in downloading it here is the link: -
http://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/betfair-for-ipad/id384896490?mt=8
Betfair API problems
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 4th, 2010
Just a short note to confirm that there were problems with the Betfair API this afternoon. For those that are new to Bet Angel you may be interested to know that we support API and non API connections. In the event of an API issue you can just switch from one mode to another to carry on you activity. There are some differences between the modes so make sure you are aware of those before switching connection mode.
Ascot
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 15th, 2010
It’s that time of year when the Queen nips out the house and down the road to have a fiver or two on a few nags. I’ll also be looking to put a few fivers on them as well, but from behind my desk. When I’ve finished all my work on betting exchanges, maybe I will nip up the road for once! Ascot has always been a key part of the summer racing and it’s no surprise with five days of wall to wall quality on display this week. I’m actually not that optimistic that I will do as well as in previous years. There are two reasons behind my change in sentiment.
First, volumes on key races on Betfair have been falling away a lot this year. I am always careful to note the volume and activity on the big races as they can make a good month a great one. So far this year, nearly all the big races have seen drops in traded volume. Second, the fill rate at these big meetings has been falling off as well. This makes it much harder to hit the heights I have in previous years. I’m not particulary despondant, it just means that I may not be able to get some of the bigger totals I have seen in previous years. Also, I am picking up more and more in the day to day racing which is more than compensating. Currently I am about a ‘month’ ahead of where I was this time last year at the moment. I’ll just have to keep trying to find new and better ways for my activity this week.
This year I will also be trading using Betdaq at Ascot. Where fill rate and sitting behind a massive order queue is a problem on Betfair, it doesn’t appear to be a problem on Betdaq. It sits in that busy but not too busy area. This has meant it has become quite a viable trading platform during the big meetings. During the day to day stuff the liquidity isn’t quite enough to work well or to use big stakes but I have noticed that it ‘feels’ just right during the big races. Worth a try in my opinion if you can’t get on with these markets on Betfair, which I know a lot of traders do struggle on. I put up a video on You Tube recently about trading on Betdaq, but this is more on the lower liquidity stuff. I will try both Betfair and Betdaq this Ascot, as I’ll need to work hard this week I feel.
Whatever you do this week, Good luck!
The Queen tries some tic tac
Betfair signs deal with Samsung
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 14th, 2010
Betfair’s wholly owned subsidiary Betfair TV has signed a pan-European commercial agreement with Korean electronics giant Samsung Electronics, under which the two companies will deploy sports betting and gaming applications on Samsung’s Connected TV platform which is powered by the Yahoo! Widget Engine.
Betfair TV has developed a real-time betting interface that will bring live Betfair betting applications directly to Samsung’s Connected TVs and Samsung Connected Blu-ray Disc Players. The application uses a direct link to the data that drives the main Betfair.com website. According to Betfair, over 35 per cent of all televisions sold by the end of 2010 in the UK are expected to be internet enabled.
Happy 10th Birthday Betfair
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 9th, 2010
Let's hope it doesn't go pop!
It was ten years ago today that Betfair took their first bets. It is amazing to see what has happened in the intervening decade. I joined the fray about 9 days later, I’ll talk more about what happened from there in a few days time. I’ve sent Betfair some personal greetings, I’m interested to see if they reciprocate.
Oaks
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 4th, 2010
If you would have asked me what the Oaks were ten years ago, I would have talked to you about what the Victorians planted en masse on the green in the next village on from where I live. Now, my first thought turns to Epsom. How things have changed in ten years.
It was the Oaks that was Betfair’s first market ten years ago, but it was on the 11th June that year, not the 4th. So Betfair are just a week away from celebrating their tenth birthday. Ten years ago I was probably worried about a different sort of fill rate. I was probably parked in some retailers head office talking to them about product selection and how quickly certain items were selling. I remember sitting in a Cafe in Chantilly debating with a colleague what we would be doing in ten years time. I told him that it almost certainly wouldn’t be what I was doing then. He is still doing the same thing, but as somebody who is ever restless, its no real surprise that I am not. What will I be doing in ten years time now? I’d probably be tempted to give the same answer as I did ten years ago.
Bet Angel on the iPad
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 28th, 2010
Today saw the launch of the iPad so following my rule of ‘If it’s a gadget, new or takes two batteries’ I just had to get one. The first thing I did was put Bet Angel on it to have a play, you can see the video by clicking on this link. Bet Angel isn’t a native application on the iPad, but it is possible to get it running on it if you use the server addition of Bet Angel. I’m now going to have a busy weekend playing on the iPad itself and another new gadget that arrived from the US this morning, more on that when I have got it working properly.
Betfair have an iPhone application, but it’s a bit limited. Hopefully a better iPad app will follow.
An easy way to maintain discipline
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 20th, 2010
There are no end of horror stories out there of people that fail to exit a position before the off and then they let that trade turn into a gamble. If you struggle with this or simply want to automate some aspects of your trading you may want to use a spreadsheet in conjunction with Bet Angel to help you achieve this.
Using Bet Angel you can link to a spreadsheet and automate a variety of elements of your trading without having to worry about additional data charges. Bet Angel will even flick through each market for you automatically. You can use all the functions of Bet Angel and the spreadsheet at the same time. In this example we put some trades in via Bet Angel’s main interface and the spreadsheet closes all our positions at the off. Just one of many ways you can use the built in spreadsheet integration. I recently covered in this post how to create your own charts or indicators using the ready made spreadsheet we supply with Bet Angel, you may want to look at that as well.
Betfair takes a swipe at French legislation
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 19th, 2010
The European union is often termed the “common market“, a collection of inter-trading free trade economies where goods and services are free to . Unfortunately a lot of the market has nothing in common and there are quite a few trade imbalances in the markets. Until such time as taxation, legislation and spending are centralised I will always be sceptical as to whether the Euro and the trading bloc can continue without significant tensions. But that’s another story!
On Friday Betfair confirmed that they will no longer accept bets from any of its French-based customers. Betfair said it welcomed the principle of member states moving from a monopoly model to a licensed regime, but warned that the new French gaming laws impose restrictions on licensed operators which are both protectionist and go against the interests of French consumers.
“We are looking very hard at the French market and how we might operate within the new licensed regime,” said Tim Phillips, Director of European Public Affairs at Betfair. “Though it’s not impossible for a newcomer to create a commercially viable business, most projections show it will be very difficult to do so, given the proposed restrictions imposed on licence holders. “French legislation will certainly benefit the incumbent players and the ultimate loser will be the French consumer. The new law does not adequately open the former monopoly’s market to true competition from other operators. We hope that the review, scheduled 18 months from now, will amend the law to address these flaws.”
Moi?
Three million up
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 27th, 2010
Not my P&L LOL! But Betfair’s customer base, which has now just breached the 3 million mark according to various press comments.
While three million sounds impressive it’s really difficult to know if the relevance of this metric. Where are those three million, what do they bet on, sports, games, casino? One question you can try to answer is how many are active. Last year Betfair said they have 652,000 active accounts and if their active accounts are tracking actual users, then we can assume that they may have around 750,000 active accounts now. Not sure what the definition of ‘active’ is though and Betfair have declined the opportunity to clarify that for me.
If you have an old fashioned premium charge statement, have a look on it and you will know what number between 1-3,000,000 you are. As I joined Betfair just seven days after they opened for business mine is very small, but newer accounts seem to track the growth Betfair have seen.
Of those 750k active users I suspect only a small percent are regular users and only a small percent of that small percent really use it ‘seriously’. So the number of really serious users is actually probably quite small. I think one of the key areas that Betfair have struggled in is the casual punter area and it would be nice to see them expand that sector of the market. Currently I think there are too many barriers in the way of the casual user.
One thing for sure Betfair will continue to grow so it will be interesting to see where we are in another few years.
Cheltenham – Post-mortem
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 1st, 2010
OK, it’s been a little while since Cheltenham finished, but I’ve been very busy on other projects and I have also been having a bit of a break before the start of the flat season proper.
Lets start from a top level. Measuring the activity to post time in the markets, a total of 26 races generated matched bet turnover on Betfair of £84.3m this year. In 2009 it generated £83m, so overall the matched bet turnover was up about 1.5% on the year. 49% of this turnover was matched on the 26 favourite’s. The remaining 51% was matched on the remaining 463 runners. Last year 53% of the money was matched on the favourites. £41.4m was traded on the favourites this year vs. £44.5m last year, so matched bets on favourites was down.
While there was top line growth of 1.5%, you have to take account for the types of races that were involved. This year there were four races where the favourite went of at odds on, last year there were just two. These races get a significant boost in turnover due to their pricing. So you could say that you would have expected this year to generate more in turnover. There are many ways to cut this data but the long and short of it is that turnover hasn’t risen much, if at all, this year. It felt like that in the market. I imagine there are more people doing similar things to me, especially as I talk openly about it, so it’s no surprise that some markets felt weak.
From a personal perspective I did OK, but not as well as last year. But it was better than the prior year so I can’t be dissatisfied with that. It was my 12th best week overall since I started all this, so I expect to get better weeks during the year. The biggest problem I had was getting orders filled, a lot of the time it was quite tricky to get orders filled in a reasonable time and that adds to the risk you take in a market. At some points it felt like I could have got changed, run around the block, had a shower and still returned to see an unmatched bet.
I didn’t really learn anything this year which is disappointing, but it was noteworthy that a strategy that I would have recommended a few years ago failed miserably this year. Just goes to show you how the market is constantly adapting and changing shape. Next up, the Grand National!
Betfair extend cross matching
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 26th, 2010
Betfair today announced that they had extended their cross matching algorithm to include a trail on in-running horse racing markets. Full announcement is detailed below: -
Improved bet matching algorithm trial on today’s in-running markets at Carlisle and Sedgefield
For the win markets on today’s cards at Carlisle and Sedgefield we will be improving our bet-matching algorithm to include cross-selection matching (‘cross-matching’). Cross-matching will only be activated after the markets are turned in-play. Please note that this is just a trial for these two meetings today.
Cross-matching was introduced on most sports during 2008 and has had a significant, positive impact on liquidity. It has meant that a customer’s bet is more likely to be matched than it would have been without cross-matching. When a bet request cannot be matched by an opposing bet on the same selection, cross-matching will attempt to match the bet request with unmatched liquidity on the remaining selections in the market. Importantly, cross-matching incorporates ‘best execution’ meaning that whenever the algorithm can match you at a better price than you requested then it will do so, resulting in you getting the best possible price.
The potential for non-runners which may require the application of Reduction Factors has prevented us from introducing cross-matching on horseracing to date. For pre-play markets Reduction Factors remain a hurdle. However, Reduction Factors are not applied to bets matched in-play.
We don’t expect customers to notice any material difference in the way the markets operate today. We will assess the results of today’s trial and should a further trial be undertaken or if we seek to apply cross-matching to in-play horseracing markets on a more permanent basis, we will announce that in advance.
Connection modes on Bet Angel
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 1st, 2010
We have had lots of questions emailed in about API and non API modes on Bet Angel.
Here is a very quick video I recorded back in September last year outlining what a connection mode is. This should enable you to understand how to set up Bet Angel to use connection modes and it also specifically refers to what you should do if you are unable, or unwilling, to connect to the Betfair’s standard API.
More Betfair problems today
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 31st, 2010
Last night there was a significant site outage, followed by issues for international customers. At 11am this morning the API went offline again.
It’s been a terrible week for Betfair. I know that due to the measures Betfair have taken in recent years the stress on their servers much be much lower on a like for like basis than in years gone by. So I am not sure why these issues have been occurring on such a frequent basis this year? While possible, it seems unlikely that all these issues occurred in isolation without some fundamental underlying, more general issue? I am aware that Betfair face many technical challenges, but I think it would be good if they came forward with a detailed explanation of what is behind all these problems to help restore confidence.
Just a reminder that you can still use Bet Angel even without the API. A small investment at less than 41p a day to have access if you are not a Bet Angel user already.
No API? No Problem
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 26th, 2010
After continued problems yesterday it appears things are not back to normal today at Betfair, currently the API is offline. But don’t worry, you can still trade with Bet Angel. One of the unique features of Bet Angel is that even if the API is down it can still connect to Betfair and allow you to trade as normal.
Also, if you want to try your hand elsewhere during the downtime. Bet Angel also had similar versions of the software that run on other exchanges.
Curious
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 28th, 2009
There seems to be an increasing trend for very low matched bet volume on Betfair on a Saturday.
Some of the early races today had much less money matched on them than their significantly inferior midweek counterparts, it’s a curious but persistent trend. In general, I would guess there is less money being matched on horse racing than in previous years, but I’ll have to do some more work on this before I can confirm one way or the other. One thing seems certain and that is that there doesn’t seem to be that much core growth going on in the horse racing markets.
It would be nice to see some more money spent to encourage growth here. At least money spent here funds an industry and real people and things. I think its a negative trend to see gambling based businesses focusing on ‘games’ where there is little substance behind the product and where the punter definitely can not find any edge or doesn’t get much entertainment for their losses. I can see why companies do this as they are easy to run and high, stable margin but other than being a margin generating source for those companies it contributes little else.
One thing I have learnt over time is how pervasive the racing industry is, it’s got a lot of depth. It would be a shame to see it’s funding source get completely detached from reality but racing itself also needs to do more to get participation at a grass roots level.
Betfair back, but not SP
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 26th, 2009
Betfair returned to normal about 1/2 hour after it went offline. Apparently their host lost connectivity which was the cause of the downtime and not any underlying technical issues.
For me, I’m annoyed, as I had an SP bet waiting to be matched before the official off time. Betfair are supposed to manually reconcile these bets when there are problems like this. On this occasion however, it was just cancelled. My log in Bet Angel shows clearly that the bet was submitted before the official off time and that was well before the race actually got underway. It’s only a small amount but it’s the principal that’s the thing. It would be nice to see Betfair reverse this error as a gesture of goodwill.
Betfair down
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 26th, 2009
Just after the off at the 14:30 at Uttoxeter Betfair look like they have had a serious crash. We haven’t had any news from Betfair at the moment as to what has happened, but the whole site including the API has gone.
If you still want to trade you can use Betdaq if you wish. You can download our sister product Betdaq Angel from the URL, http://www.betdaqangel.com. This is pretty much the same as Bet Angel but works on the Betdaq betting exchange.
Will I make a profit this week?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 12th, 2009
Yes and no I guess?
Yes I will make a profit, but technically I will right up against the wall, why?
Last week with the Melbourne Cup, Breeders Cup, the UK racing and the champions league it was a busy week. This week there isn’t a great deal on the card. On Wednesday the premium charge came out for last week and it was a big one. This week I may struggle to get in a day what I managed in just one race last week. Net result, I will probably spend most, if not all, this week working for Betfair. Boo hoo.
Betfair – Evening Standard article
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 17th, 2009
I went into town last Tuesday evening to meet up with a friend for meal out and to catch up on things since we last met. We spent most of the evening talking about markets and volatility. Gold prices, house prices, stock prices, commodity prices, horse prices! It was great to have some quality time, enjoy a nice meal and to debate various aspects of the markets.
As per usual, I only just managed to get back to Waterloo to catch the last train home. I slumped onto the seat in an attempt to recover from my last minute dash to catch the train. Next to me was an article on spread betting and a full page on Betfair. I have reproduced if for you interest. Click on the images to expand them and read the article. To be honest I’m not sure what I make of the article as there are a quite a few contradictory messages coming out of it!
Betfair Aussie license set to expire soon
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 9th, 2009
With Betfair’s Aussie license set to expire in 15 months time, the positioning and negotiation is well underway by the look of it. It could be a seminal moment, as agreement on a structure and new license will determine how the exchange model plays out down under. With the announcement from the French it seems widespread acceptance of exchanges is still someway from being achieved.
Full story on this link.
French say non!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 9th, 2009
The French government has effectively outlawed the online betting exchange Betfair after passing an amendment to new gambling laws. Under a surprise last-minute amendment, betting exchanges such as Betfair that allow punters to lay as well as place bets were excluded from the legislation in a move that the company described as “discriminatory”.
Full story by clicking this link.
Simple scalping
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 5th, 2009
We uploaded this video recently and it has proved pretty popular so I thought I would put this on the blog. It’s just a simple guide to the thought process that goes into a simple scalp. On this video we get £40 gross with a couple of quick scalps on something priced at 6′s. Double click the video to enlarge. Enjoy…
The two grand race
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 11th, 2009
Ok not quite two grand and also it shouldn’t have been! But thanks to Betfair’s well documented problems this week, a failure to turn markets in play, I fluked a big gain on one race today. See below: -
To be honest I’d rather forgo the money and have the whole system working as it should do. It serves no one to have a faulty platform and it would be much better to be sure that you know what is going to happen next. I also take issue with the fact that Betfair were not correctly backdating “at inplay take sp” orders. A very errant approach in my opinion. While a bonus is nice it isn’t real and these things work both ways. Earlier in the day at the 15:00 at The Curragh, I got a big negative. I decided then not to risk anything further but the issue didn’t seem to be present at UK races so I got suckered at Nottingham. As luck would have it, the right horse won and I got the benefit. But that’s it for the moment, no more till I am confident that Betfair is working properly again.
Betfair quote ‘technical issues’ as the problem. I strongly suspect that it is the SP reconciliation process that is broken. I also suspect that Betfair are placing their own SP orders into the market at this moment. I can’t confirm this but from the evidence I have seen, the way the SP is shifting, this problem and the delayed SP reconciliation this evening make me suspect that this is what the problem is. I’ll ask Betfair and let you know what they say. Clarification on the issue would go some way to pacifying what must be a whole bundle of unhappy customers. I was lucky today to escape, but I suspect there are many out of pocket.
How many racing traders are there?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 11th, 2009
I often get asked how many traders are on the exchanges, how much volume do they do etc? The honest answer is that I currently don’t know, but I can confirm roughly how many existed a few years ago.
Back in 2003 Betfair issued a document that actually clearly laid out what a market looked like. In the document they looked at a horse race and showed how many people placed back bets only, how many laid only and how many did both; trading in other words.
I worked out how to ‘trade’ by accident. I started on the exchanges doing arbitrage. I would do this by backing at a bookmaker and laying off on the exchange. I soon realised you could actually do the same thing on an exchange by simply putting money back into the market at a different price, instead of at a bookmaker.
By 2003 according to the Betfair document, on one particular race, more than 500 people had figured out the very same thing. It turns out that this activity made up nearly one fifth of the participants in the market. By volume it accounted for nearly 50% of the entire market.
That was a bit of a revelation to me as I hadn’t really spoken to many people about what I was doing, mainly because people didn’t understand or care. So it was quite a surprise to learn back in 2003 that more than 500 people were quite likely doing a similar thing. There have been some pretty high profile casualties in the intervening years, I wonder how many of those 500 are still around? I doubt I’ll ever learn, but at least I can sort of part answer the original question.
Betfair changes matching process
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 8th, 2009
Betfair have just announced that they are to change the way bets can be matched on their exchange. This is a move back to the early days of Betfair and an original concept that is actually in use by other exchanges. Full information is listed here: -
Difficult to judge the immediate impact but certainly a lot of markets will have the illusion of money in them. You are also more likely to get matched more often I would guess. On the downside some arb opportunities may have just vanished! I’ve asked the guys to put a link up in the forum so everybody can discuss in there.
It comes into force next Tuesday.