Posts Tagged betfair

Connection modes on Bet Angel

We have had lots of questions emailed in about API and non API modes on Bet Angel.

Here is a very quick video I recorded back in September last year outlining what a connection mode is. This should enable you to understand how to set up Bet Angel to use connection modes and it also specifically refers to what you should do if you are unable, or unwilling, to connect to the Betfair’s standard API.

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More Betfair problems today

Last night there was a significant site outage, followed by issues for international customers. At 11am this morning the API went offline again.

It’s been a terrible week for Betfair.  I know that due to the measures Betfair have taken in recent years the stress on their servers much be much lower on a like for like basis than in years gone by. So I am not sure why these issues have been occurring on such a frequent basis this year? While possible, it seems unlikely that all these issues occurred in isolation without some fundamental underlying, more general issue? I am aware that Betfair face many technical challenges, but I think it would be good if they came forward with a detailed explanation of what is behind all these problems to help restore confidence.

Just a reminder that you can still use Bet Angel even without the API. A small investment at less than 41p a day to have access if you are not a Bet Angel user already.

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No API? No Problem

After continued problems yesterday it appears things are not back to normal today at Betfair, currently the API is offline. But don’t worry, you can still trade with Bet Angel. One of the unique features of Bet Angel is that even if the API is down it can still connect to Betfair and allow you to trade as normal.

Also, if you want to try your hand elsewhere during the downtime. Bet Angel also had similar versions of the software  that run on other exchanges.

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Curious

There seems to be an increasing trend for very low matched bet volume on Betfair on a Saturday.

Some of the early races today had much less money matched on them than their significantly inferior midweek counterparts, it’s a curious but persistent trend. In general, I would guess there is less money being matched on horse racing than in previous years, but I’ll have to do some more work on this before I can confirm one way or the other. One thing seems certain and that is that there doesn’t seem to be that much core growth going on in the horse racing markets.

It would be nice to see some more money spent to encourage growth here. At least money spent here funds an industry and real people and things. I think its a negative trend to see gambling based businesses focusing on ‘games’ where there is little substance behind the product and where the punter definitely can not find any edge or doesn’t get much entertainment for their losses. I can see why companies do this as they are easy to run and high, stable margin but other than being a margin generating source for those companies it contributes little else.

One thing I have learnt over time is how pervasive the racing industry is, it’s got a lot of depth. It would be a shame to see it’s funding source get completely detached from reality but racing itself also needs to do more to get participation at a grass roots level.

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Betfair back, but not SP

Betfair returned to normal about 1/2 hour after it went offline. Apparently their host lost connectivity which was the cause of the downtime and not any underlying technical issues.

For me, I’m annoyed, as I had an SP bet waiting to be matched before the official off time. Betfair are supposed to manually reconcile these bets when there are problems like this. On this occasion however,  it was just cancelled. My log in Bet Angel shows clearly that the bet was submitted before the official off time and that was well before the race actually got underway. It’s only a small amount but it’s the principal that’s the thing. It would be nice to see Betfair reverse this error as a gesture of goodwill.

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Betfair down

Just after the off at the 14:30 at Uttoxeter Betfair look like they have had a serious crash. We haven’t had any news from Betfair at the moment as to what has happened, but the whole site including the API has gone.

If you still want to trade you can use Betdaq if you wish. You can download our sister product Betdaq Angel from the URL, http://www.betdaqangel.com. This is pretty much the same as Bet Angel but works on the Betdaq betting exchange.

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Will I make a profit this week?

Yes and no I guess?

Yes I will make a profit, but technically I will right up against the wall, why?

Last week with the Melbourne Cup, Breeders Cup, the UK racing and the champions league it was a busy week. This week there isn’t a great deal on the card. On Wednesday the premium charge came out for last week and it was a big one. This week I may struggle to get in a day what I managed in just one race last week. Net result, I will probably spend most, if not all, this week working for Betfair. Boo hoo.

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Betfair – Evening Standard article

I went into town last  Tuesday evening to meet up with a friend for meal out and to catch up on things since we last met. We spent most of the evening talking about markets and volatility. Gold prices, house prices, stock prices, commodity prices, horse prices! It was great to have some quality time, enjoy a nice meal and to debate various aspects of the markets.

As per usual, I only just managed to get back to Waterloo to catch the last train home. I slumped onto the seat in an attempt to recover from my last minute dash to catch the train. Next to me was an article on spread betting and a full page on Betfair. I have reproduced if for you interest. Click on the images to expand them and read the article. To be honest I’m not sure what I make of the article as there are a quite a few contradictory messages coming out of it!

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Betfair Aussie license set to expire soon

With Betfair’s Aussie license set to expire in 15 months time, the positioning and negotiation is well underway by the look of it. It could be a seminal moment, as agreement on a structure and new license will determine how the exchange model plays out down under. With the announcement from the French it seems widespread acceptance of exchanges is still someway from being achieved.

Full story on this link.

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French say non!

The French government has effectively outlawed the online betting exchange Betfair after passing an amendment to new gambling laws. Under a surprise last-minute amendment, betting exchanges such as Betfair that allow punters to lay as well as place bets were excluded from the legislation in a move that the company described as “discriminatory”.

Full story by clicking this link.

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Simple scalping

We uploaded this video recently and it has proved pretty popular so I thought I would put this on the blog. It’s just a simple guide to the thought process that goes into a simple scalp. On this video we get £40 gross with a couple of quick scalps on something priced at 6’s. Double click the video to enlarge. Enjoy…

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The two grand race

Ok not quite two grand and also it shouldn’t have been! But thanks to Betfair’s well documented problems this week, a failure to turn markets in play, I fluked a big gain on one race today. See below: -

090711 - 1740 - Nottingham £1800 - 02 - CopyTo be honest I’d rather forgo the money and have the whole system working as it should do. It serves no one to have a faulty platform and it would be much better to be sure that you know what is going to happen next. I also take issue with the fact that Betfair were not correctly backdating “at inplay take sp” orders. A very errant approach in my opinion. While a bonus is nice it isn’t real and these things work both ways. Earlier in the day at the 15:00 at The Curragh, I got a big negative. I decided then not to risk anything further but the issue didn’t seem to be present at UK races so I got suckered at Nottingham. As luck would have it, the right horse won and I got the benefit. But that’s it for the moment, no more till I am confident that Betfair is working properly again.

Betfair quote ‘technical issues’ as the problem. I strongly suspect that it is the SP reconciliation process that is broken. I also suspect that Betfair are placing their own SP orders into the market at this moment. I can’t confirm this but from the evidence I have seen, the way the SP is shifting, this problem and the delayed SP reconciliation this evening make me suspect that this is what the problem is. I’ll ask Betfair and let you know what they say. Clarification on the issue would go some way to pacifying what must be a whole bundle of unhappy customers. I was lucky today to escape, but I suspect there are many out of pocket.

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Betfair changes matching process

Betfair have just announced that they are to change the way bets can be matched on their exchange. This is a move back to the early days of Betfair and an original concept that is actually in use by other exchanges. Full information is listed here: -

http://site.forum.betfair.com/jive3/betex/ThreadsFrameset.jsp?forumID=9&forumName=Service&threadID=1931073&tName=Improvement+to+the+display+of+unmatched+bets&schatname=&iMessageCount=1

Difficult to judge the immediate impact but certainly a lot of markets will have the illusion of money in them. You are also more likely to get matched more often I would guess. On the downside some arb opportunities may have just vanished! I’ve asked the guys to put a link up in the forum so everybody can discuss in there.

It comes into force next Tuesday.

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Suspended in dis-belief

Despite my nervousness, as expressed in a previous post,  I actually did pretty well last Saturday, in fact it wasn’t the delays on Betfair that caught me out  in the end however. It was the late suspension of the 15:05! I already had an open lay bet in the market and closed the position as expected before the off. In fact I had several positions that I closed together.

When the market failed to appear in play I took screen shots and data from the race, knowing what was likely to happen next. Betfair decided to resettle the market.

The big issue I have when Betfair do this, is that it seems to be completely arbitrary. I know they throw the terms at you and quote ‘offical off time’ but I am just not sure where the ‘official’ off time comes from or how it is calculated. I know for an absoluete fact that all my positions where equal at the time the race actually started as I closed all positions together. I saw the start, even if Betfair didn’t!! However, when the market was re-settled some of those positions were settled as though some were open and some closed. Impossible when you consider that they all closed at exactly the same time. I have plenty of evidence to prove this simple fact.

You could be forgiven for thinking this rant is because I lost some money, but on this occasion I actually gained as a result of the error on Betfair, but it still annoys me something rotten. What I want are clearly defined rules, not  arbitary ones, especially when incorrect in my eyes. I know when I placed the bets and when the market should have gone in play and I was out by that point. According to official off I wasn’t. It could have been very nasty if it had gone the other way.

Fortunately on this occassion it didn’t and I got a small bonus. But it worries me that there doesn’t seem to be any way to ensure this is a fair settlement. That’s concerning for everybody, what ever you do on the exchanges and however you do it.

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Biggest premium charge?

I was passed some information this morning that indicates that at least one Betfair customer paid fees of some sort somewhere in the region of £200-250k in the last three months of the year! Puts things into perspective doesn’t it? It also makes you wonder just how much money is being generated in premium charges? It will be interesting to see where it ends up on Betfair’s next annual report. If they are spending it to get new customers then that’ll be great, but I have to say it doesn’t feel to me like the horse racing markets are growing in all honesty. We’ll have to wait for answer to both I guess.

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Hereford 16:30

Gee, thanks Betfair. Just started trading this race when they suspended it and put it in-play. No problem usually there, but it was well before the start of the race. Obviously some head scratching went on as I was held in the market for ages with a half finished trade before, just seconds from the start, they brought the market back. What a mess, but luckily I escapted with a 80p profit in running. Phew. I hope you didn’t get too shafted on this!

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Blast from the past

I was wading back through my archives the other day and realised I am older than I thought! I actually placed my first bet on a betting exchange on June 5th 2000. It wasn’t on Betfair but on Flutter, Betfair’s early rival. I didn’t start on Betfair till the 18th June.

On the 5th June, I had a whopping £5 bet on the FTSE up or down market. A day later on the interest rate market and my first sport was Golf. I was backing and laying Tiger woods to win / not win the US Open and Colin Montgomerie as well.

Embedded on the spreadsheet are the immortal words ‘If you want to make money you need to lay at a lower price than you back at’. Would never have guessed back then, nearly nine years ago where those words would lead.

I knew way back then that it was worth putting some effort into things and seeing what I could make of the opportunity. I never realised just how big betting exchanges would get. I also didn’t realise just how the opportunity would present itself. If you said back then that in nine years time I would be gambling millions a week on the horses I would have thought you had gone mad. Just goes to show, always use the words impossible with the greatest of caution!

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Being contrary

Have a look at the following chart from the 14:15 at Lingfield on Saturday. This is a very big steamer. Of course in hindsight you would say, ‘If I backed it at X and laid it at Y I would have made £Z’. Most people would look at this chart and back it high and lay it low. After all backing at 3 and laying at 2 would net you a 100% profit on your stake and fully greened up 50%.
Steamer at Lingfield

Steamer at Lingfield

I often look at these moves and do the opposite. It’s easy to get sucked into such a move and follow it. You can see that it has come in a long way, the market likes it, but also it has accounted for a disproportionate amount of volume, £239k out of £284k for the total market! But of course it can’t go all the way into 1.01, that would be impossible. So at some point people have to stop backing it and the price will rebound. That’s exactly what happened today. Catching this move also benefits you in another way. When the price rebounds, it tends to do so with a lot of vigour as most people in the market can’t help but follow the trend. When the trend breaks, everybody heads for the door and there lies your opportunity.

Bet Angel - One click screen

Bet Angel - One click screen

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Premium charge online

Just been emailed this link: -

https://premiumcharge.betfair.com/PremiumPortal/portal

By the look of it it appears to generate your last premium charge statement, or at least the front page of it. Despite efforts to reduce the charge mine still makes grim reading. But I suppose in some ways I should be thankful that is the case.

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Financial spreads vs. Betfair

As you know I spend quite a bit of time nosing around the financial markets. If you have never touched financial markets it’s worth having a look at some point.

Each morning I spend a lot of time browsing company reports and reading up on companies, industries and all manner of things. Today I was looking at IG index and the spread betting industry. IG are an interesting company and one I have held shares in twice. The report makes interesting reading.

Click here for the IG Index annual report

IG is a spread betting company that started in 1974. It offered spread bets on gold back then but now it includes sports as well as financials. In comparison to Betfair it is booming, it’s also a lot more profitable.
IG’s earnings for 2008 were £97m vs. £20m for Betfair but it’s the growth that is the most interesting aspect. IG’s revenue is up 50% year on year compared to Betfair’s 25%. Most of the growth at IG has come from financial spread bets as opposed to sports betting. When I joined Betfair this is where I thought Betfair could completely clean up. I felt the exchange model they had could really make inroads to traditional financial spreadbetting. However Betfair never gained acceptance into the financial community and perhaps FSA accreditation may have helped there? It’s interesting to see how fast the financial spread betting market is growing. Dominance, it would appear, hasn’t turned out to be the case for Betfair and they recently hived off the financial markets to London Capital Group as a white label product.

Click here for the LCG annual report

This doesn’t appear to have worked either as volumes on Tradefair are very low and none of the really big financial traders I know use them, they prefer, despite their flaws, companies like IG. I think one of the problems is that city firms very often make a market in financials and as a market maker they are almost impossible to beat. No sooner have you submitted a bet than the market moves and your value is swept up before you even knew there was any there. That’s a killer. I guess this will always be a flaw of these types of markets, it’s an uneven playing field.

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