Posts Tagged carling cup
Carling cup lessons
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 1st, 2011
Some interesting lessons from last nights Carling Cup.
First, the best bet of the night wasn’t on Man Utd or Crystal Palace but elsewhere, have a think about it. In the underlying match itself there was a in-play characteristic that really showed up Man Utd’s struggles. It made an outside bet on Palace a good option.
I have to thank an ‘expert’ for hihglighting this characteristic that I hadn’t looked at before. But rather bizarrely this academic was using it to prove almost the complete opposite of what I am using it for. I found it by reading some of the more academic blogs out there. I often find this interesting as they are trying to answer the why of the more subtle aspects of football.
The problem you have with information is that you often find a problem with the way people approach things, especially academics. They tend to lack subjective thought. It’s easy to slip into the mode of looking for justification of something, rather than taking a step back and understanding what actually creates a characteristic. I.e. you seek to justify your findings rather than getting feedback on them. This often leads you down a blind alley which is what happened on the blog post I read.
I took one look at it and thought, ‘That’s interesting, but doesn’t seem right’. So I rolled up my sleeves and went to replicate his findings only to find out there was additional information contained in them that he had missed. This was only because he was seeking to illustrate and prove a point. In doing so he missed the a different point, in fact I’d say he got the whole thing wrong but I haven’t done enough to confidently say that just yet.
I have to say I’m not keen on these types of cup matches but did well this week from both of them by taking positions that were fairly likely to pay off or offer limited downside. Despite the mixed up lack of quality it proved entertaining. The Europa league is turning into the Carling cup of Europe by the look of it. So I’m a bit mixed on that this year, but will be hacking away at it again tonight.
Man City away
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on November 29th, 2011
I had a nose around the footy markets this evening and noted that Man City were around 2.30′s. Wasn’t completely sure that this was what I expected so checked back at recent Man City matches at these prices away from home. In fact I couldn’t find any this year but last year there were three. City won these 2-0, 4-1 and 3-1 respectively.
If we widen the net to include matches between 2.20-2.50 you capture a wider sample including City’s 5-1 away win at Spurs. The data hints that City don’t try really hard against teams they are expected to win against but up their game against higher profile teams.
Of course it’s the Carling cup, so a lot of what happens tonight rests on how important either team feels the competition is, but City also have strength in depth. I’ll be out watching footy tonight, so wont get the chance to trade it manually; but will keep and eye on things and doing some automated stuff while I’m out.
Good luck if you are getting involved. Carling Cup can be a bit of a gamble sometimes.
Every action..
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 25th, 2011
Requires an equal and opposite reaction… said Issac Newton.
So my attention is drawn to the clash between Aldershot and Man Utd this evening.
Man Utd should win, but the odds are discounting a bit of uncertainty, which is probably a fair reflection of the likely team and how they will play. But can Fergie risk anything less than an emphatic victory? I’m on the look out for a reaction to the stunning result on Sunday. I imagine that will galvanize them into action.
I’m not really into these matches generally as they are difficult to accurate assess, but I sense there could be an opportunity in this match this evening.
Too hard
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 22nd, 2010
There are many thousands of markets that will come under your eyes each year. So which ones should you do? The hard ones or the easy ones. Not a difficult question is it? So why do so many people pick situations that are likely to fall into the too hard category? I’ll explain on another post, but before that, let me explain how I approach each opportunity.
When I approach a market, I will label it easy, not sure or too hard. Tonght we had some Carling cup football matches on and I filed this in the too hard category. Teams with little incentive, unusual team line ups, it’s all a bit too tough to make a sound judgement on, so I will pass. Perhaps worth a speculative postion, but not much else.
Imagine you are batting at a cricket crease, but there is no wicket. You can let the bowler chuck balls at you all day long without getting out. All you need to do is wait for an easy delivery. When you see it, hit it. You should look to do exactly the same when you are looking for an opportunity in a market. If you don’t like the current one, another will be along in a minute. Try and hit everyone and you will probably do a poorer job overall.
Doing nothing can, rather curiously, be doing something.
Over / Under 10.5 goals
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 21st, 2010
You don’t see that market very often, but you did last night. What a remarkable match, Aston Villa 6 Blackburn 4! At 0-2 down Villa were matched in volume at 10′s, this match was a trading bonanza! The market was just slightly out on this one forecasting just 2.60 goals. Excluding specifics of the match itself, I can only find three 6-4′s in my recent detailed database of 10,189 matches. So its around at least a 3400-1 shot. Great entertainment anyhow. I think Milner should go to South Africa for the world cup next year. Every tournament needs some energetic new blood that the other countries won’t know much about, I think Milner fits the bill.
I had several emails of some spectacular totals from this match, much better than my efforts, I hope you did well also.
