Posts Tagged catania
Would you back the draw at 1.30?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 8th, 2010
If a football match was near the end, perhaps ten or fifteen minutes or so, 1.28 may represent value. But before the match has started, no way! Mathematically speaking it’s highly improbable for the draw to be priced at 80% certainty in a fair match. However these strange odds seem to occur often at the end of the Italian football season. Not all of them play out as the odds intend but it’s certainly very strange to keep seeing such massive anomalies. We have another one for Sunday, make of it what you will.
Even odder
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 22nd, 2010
Thanks for all the people that emailed in about the Chievo vs Catania match. Many different views and opinions on this match. Also thanks to my Italian friends that got in contact to talk about this particular game.
No surprise that the match ended up 1-1 as strongly predicted by the market. 95% of all the money on the match was traded on the draw which is pretty much unheard of in a soccer match. There is vigorous discussion on the forum about this match so I’m not going to try and repeat or summarise that here. Just glad I didn’t lay the draw on this one!
Very odd
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 20th, 2010
Not often I talk about Italian football but this one can’t go by without comment.
Chievo vs. Catania
Cheivo are 3.15 to win this match, nothing unusual there. But the really unusual thing this that the draw is priced at odds on. You don’t see that very often, in fact, you never see it. Draw’s occur fairly randomly and the odds for the draw is one of the easiest things to predict. I’ve never seen fit to predict a draw at odds on, as there is virtually no scenario where you think that it could possibly be value to back at this price. Neither could you say that backing 1-1 as the correct score is value at 2.5, yet both the draw and 1-1 are coming in for spectacular support in this match. Make your own mind up as to what is happening here. Let’s just say that the pricing of this match is highly unusual.
