Posts Tagged champions league
Incentive to score
Posted by Peter Webb in Football / Soccer on December 6th, 2011
That one word is how I would describe the next two evenings worth champions league matches. Some teams will have a big incentive to score, others to not lose and others no incentive to do anything at all.
All the above will most likely throw up some of the best opportunities you will see in-play in this quality of match. It’s a bit like the knockout stage which returns in February. Early group stages can be tepid affairs but the next two sets of matches should set off some fireworks. I’ll be heading off to the Gym after today’s racing to squeeze in a couple of hours before returning to really get stuck into the football.
I’ll tend to do what I can before the game starts and then carry that over and then some into the in-play market. Once that trade is complete I’ll re-asses things at half time using information I’ve gathered in the first half to make some decisions.
Liquidity should be higher and opportunities abundant, so have a good look this over the next two nights. Check out incentive to score and what each team needs to do to progress. Double check team sheets as they come out and be prepared to go against the prevailing wisdom to catch some big potential. The rewards are so high for progression to the knockout stage, anything can and does happen.
This evening looks OK, but tomorrow night the setups are a little more intriguing; but there should be opportunity in both.
No champions league fireworks
Posted by Peter Webb in Champions league, Football / Soccer on November 23rd, 2011
Not sure if it’s just me, but I’ve found the group stages of the CL this year a little dull. After my racing hiatus I sat down yesterday evening to see some exciting matches, but not a great deal of opportunity. I guessed Man Utd would be keen to win against Napoli, but didn’t bank on such a quick equaliser! I sense the last few matches in the group stages should ignite some fireworks given the way results have panned out so far.
Tonight I’m working on a pre-off trading strategy. There isn’t, generally, a great deal of movement on these matches before the start; Rooney’s omission last night being an exception. But that doesn’t mean there is opportunity. I’ll be doing my best to work the market before the off so I can put some of that to speculative use this evening.
So in the UK we move from the Mancunian challenge to the London challenge. It will be interesting to see if both come to life in the knockout stages, as they seem to have spluttered through the groups. Advantage Spain I’d say at the moment!
The champions league gulf
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 19th, 2011
Just had a good look at this evenings matches you can’t help but wonder if UEFA’s coefficient is a bit cocked up. Either than or whether there really is such a massive gulf between the top teams in Europe and everybody else. I suggest the outcomes are driven by commercial incentives in reality.
Barcelona are an amazing 1.05 to beat Plzen this evening. We have Chelsea t 1.12, AC Milan 1.27 and Porto 1.30.
Several uncompetitive prices were offered out last night. The only tempting one last night was Man City, given their weak start to the group stages. Would have turned out to be a great trade. As it was, I was getting sozzled in a hospitality area at Southampton watching the curious phenomena of English players playing in an English league. Still some way from the billions of the champions league. Tonight I’ll be back behind my desk. I am looking for some value in the Porto match.
It doesn’t take a genuis to work out the most to least goals this evening, so I won’t post them up. Good luck this evening.
Pep, how many goals will you win by?
Champions league
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 27th, 2011
Tonight’s matches should generate on average around 23 goals. I’d rank most to least: -
Real Madrid vs Ajax
Man Utd vs FC Basel
B Munich vs Man City
Lyon vs Dinamo Zagreb
Otelul Galati vs Benfica
Napoli vs Villarreal
Trabzonspor vs Lille
CSKA Moscow vs Inter
I much prefer the knockout stage of the competition or the latter stages of the group stages when incentive to score is highest.
Stat of the evening for you. There is around an early 60′s% percent chance that B Munich could take the lead at some point during the match against Man City.
Champions league qualifiers
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 24th, 2011
An intruiging bunch of matches this evening. Several are priced for a great deal of uncertainty and that can create some good opportunities. I reckon we should be in for another 13/14 goals in the matches this evening. The matches are much more complex this evening, so after my tip last night, I’ll duck a tip this evening!
Arsenal can win in Udinese but it’s not going to be straight forward. I’ll be monitoring the first half and making a few decisions from there.
Champions league qualifiers
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 23rd, 2011
I reckon there will be around 14/15 goals this evening. The least number of goals this evening is likely to be in the match between APOEL & Wisla Krakow.
Champions League
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 28th, 2011
Everybody else will be posting about it so I thought I would add my two penneth worth.
An intriguing clash, for once I think I will watch this than trade it.
A neutral venue but Man Utd will practically be at home, so you would have to favour Barca but discount some of the neutrality. I think this is the weakest Man Utd team for a while. Other teams really should have put in a stronger challenge for the premier league this season, but we all know the stories behind that.
These sort of matches are difficult to price, so I would suggest it’s the sort of match where you could find some value once a pattern develops in the match. It’s so delicately balanced and both teams have a huge incentive to win tactics will play an important role.
The market is saying 2.40 goals, slightly above normal for this type of match, with a 0.40 advantage to Barcelona. This is effectively saying this is a very even match but Barcelona are at ‘at home’, they have the equivalent of home advantage. I think it’s more uneven than that, but a lot will depending on whether there is an early goal. That will really set the agenda. I’ve had a delve through my database for similar matches, but they are all a bit inconclusive to be honest.
I would recommend seeing how the opening exchanges are playing out and getting involved from there. It’s difficult to make any firm judgements before the off, but I’m leaning on the side of Barcelona. I am hoping for an entertaining match!
May the 4th be with you
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 4th, 2011
Hmm, not sure Ferguson is making the right decision to rest players ahead of tonight’s Champions league semi final. OK a two goal lead should be plenty but a goal for Schalke could really put the cat amongst the pigeons. I guess he will bench key players and bring them on if it merits it?
I had a quick look on the DB and hunted for Man Utd matches at home priced between 1.50-1.60. It threw up five recent matches. United won 4/5 but on three occasions the away team scored first. The most poignant one was last December when Man Utd placed Valencia at Old Trafford and drew 1-1, Valencia scored first them as well.
United are on the drift at the moment.
Forgone conclusion?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 3rd, 2011
You can’t help but think, like the rest of the community, that the two champions league semi finals are forgone conclusions. I looked at the weekend markets and curiously all teams lost, so no clues in there. But it was possible to start opposing Man Utd after it dawned to me that they may have half an eye on the semi final.
The market is discounting a win by one goal for Barcelona tonight but much depends on whether Real Madrid throw the kitchen sink at them. They need at least a goal and that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons. I remember the famous Mourinho draw at Old Trafford that put Man Utd out a few years ago. I’m going to try and work some money into the market and go for an outside chance. I’ll likely know by half time whether this is likely or not.
Man Utd don’t have the strongest team of recent years but should be able to get past Schalke. There performance was a bit tepid over the weekend but, looking at the stats, were a little unlucky to lose against Arsenal. I think this semi final is a little more favouable to Utd. If the do progress they a have lot to worry about when it comes to the final and the league run in will not be helpful.
Strange things can happen in knockout competitions
Farcelona
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 28th, 2011
That was the word on the street after the sending off last night. It seems a common trait to dislike success, but you can’t escape the fact that Barcelona have proved on many occasions that they are by far the best team in the tournament and did so again last night. It’s just such a shame they have often degraded their performances with gamesmanship.
It’s also a shame that the first leg was a duplicate of the other semi final, as they both are now set up for uncompetitive second legs. That will reduce the ability to get a decent trade away on either. It’s unfortunate that the early rounds threw up so much opportunity, but the later rounds have done little. I lost money last night but much less than I made on the other semi final. You can’t win them all!
Still, here’s looking forward to a Man Utd vs Barcelona final. I think this would be intriguing as, while it is at a neutral venue, Man Utd will practically be at home I suspect. It will be interesting to see how the stats discount this into a price for the final. That’s what I am keeping my eye on now.
Sending off offence?
Schalke vs Man Utd review
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 27th, 2011
The market was predicting a low scoring affair but it was obvious, fairly early on, that the match was likely to be anything but. Man Utd’s pace seemed to surprise Schalke and plenty of chances were created.This produced the unusual effect of there being little price decay in the under 2.5 goals market.
Come half time there were plenty of shots but no goals so a back of overs was a natural step. It took a while be eventually there were two quick goals and this prompted Man Utd to go defensive with a couple of key substitutions and the prospect for another goal was greatly diminished, so I closed out. A satisfactory evening.
Liquidity was very good last night, so I will be going large on the next semi final tonight.
Nothing’s impossible
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 13th, 2011
That has to be the message that Harry Redknapp will send to his team this evening. But just what chance does he have?
When you can lay Real Madrid at 1.02 to qualify, so the market thinks Harry has less than a 2% chance. But memories are still fresh for me with that remarkable run Middlesbrough had in the UEFA cup a few years ago.
Spurs are priced at 3.35 for a win, the match is only priced for just under three goals. This is at the top end for this type of match, but given the need for goals I think this is a little light. Real Madrid can afford to concede and not worry and one away goal would mean a mammoth task for Spurs. You get the feeling Mr Redknapp will tell his team to go for it and sod the consequences. I’m going to lean on goals being scored.
I went back through my database and found 94 recent matches where the home team was priced at 3.35, a 30% chance of a win. 36% of those 94 matches ended up as a win. Only once did the home team score four goals or more and that wasn’t without reply so the prospects for Spurs do look a little bleak. However there were a few 3-0 results in there which would make the match a cracker. Man City won 3-0 at the same odds against Arsenal in 2008 and, more recently, Bristol City defeated Cardiff by the same margin in January. So not totally out of the question, especially given the incentive to win.
My focus will be on looking for goals. Stats tell me that if the game is likely to deliver more than three goals it would be ideal for that first goal to arrive before 30 minutes. 22 minutes or lower will definitely put four within sight. Therefore Spurs need to get at least three shots on target in the first 20 minutes to really be convincing candidates for a shock. Within the first 30 you will know whether things are going to plan or not.
Let’s hope for a interesting and exciting game!
Cat and mouse
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 12th, 2011
I’m expecting a game of cat and mouse tonight at Old Trafford, both teams would like to score but both have very strong incentives not to concede. This is the only match that holds any great interest in the remaining quarter finals, the others are formalities it would seem. I’ll put some energy into this match this evening but I’ll be planning on doing something else tomorrow.
Man Utd vs. Chelsea is priced at 2.40 goals with a 0.25 goal advantage to Man Utd. That seems a little light on both accounts. The first leg had a rousing start and with a bit of luck Chelsea would have scored. You sense they will go for it tonight and try and get that critical away goal. If they don’t it will be a timid exit from the competition. I’m already busy working some money into the market and will try and look for an outside chance, Chelsea or goals, to get the money rolling in-play.
Showdown
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 6th, 2011
Barcelona are priced for an easy win against Shakhtar and I can’t see beyond that. Barca will want to put this to bed comprehensively in the first leg. However, there are decent trades available for this scenario. Goals give you plenty of scope to hedge good set ups.
Last night’s legs were uncompetitive and the return legs look a formality now, which is a shame. The same can’t be said of tonights showdown at Stamford Bridge. I would have priced in a very tight match with little to either side but the market has priced it like two teams of equal ability but with home advantage to Chelsea. So your decision should centre on whether you feel that this is like a normal league fixture, I’d argue not.
If you look at matches where Chelsea are priced in a similar manner to tonight, then the last eight read WWLDDDDW. In these matches Chelsea have not scored more than two goals and the match hasn’t contained three goals once. Will either team risk it tonight? I doubt it, a Chelsea goal will see Man Utd try to stop conceding another and a Man Utd goal will see them shut up shop. Advantage Ferguson.
When Harry met Jose
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 5th, 2011
Home wins look the order of the day for the first leg of the champions league this evening. It’s difficult to see beyond that, but as we seen already, anything is possible. When Harry last visited Madrid he got mugged, most Spurs fans will hope it doesn’t happen again on the field of play.
The pressure has to be on Real Madrid to get a result at home against Champions league novices Spurs. Spurs best chance of progressing has to be to shut out Real away from home, but their current record means that a lack of goals is far from certain in this match. I’m a little uncertain on things overall so I will aim to work some money into the market before it starts with a view to carrying some risk in play. I think the matches on Wednesday will offer more clear cut opportunities.
The Real Madrid match is priced for three goals with two of those going to Real. It seems logical that there could be an above average goal tally in this match. Inter & Schalke are priced for 2.60 with a fairly firm advantage to Inter. Inter haven’t been that convincing so far.
Champions league
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 16th, 2011
Well that was a cracking start to the champions league knock out stages!
The cat has been well and truly put amongst the pigeons with Spurs win in Milan. Harry’s steps towards legendary status are getting quite common now. Can Arsenal over turn Barcelona this evening? It would be a memorable night if they could and this match has my attention. Arsenal can’t afford to concede but must really win to have any chance in Barcelona. Barca will have no expectation other than a win on their mind. Since that infamous match against Chelsea a few seasons ago I am sure it will be an electric evening at the Emirates. I sense Barca will try and soak up the pressure and hit Arsenal on the counter. After the fireworks of last night, my contrary manner makes me want to step aside the emotion and do something around Barca. However, at this tight stage it often makes sense to back the outsider and trade out at half time if things haven’t happened. Should be an intriguing match.
This evenings European football
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 15th, 2011
The two key champions league matches don’t look exciting prospects from my viewpoint. Two home wins on the card and two away teams that will be trying to avoid defeat. The first leg in these cases don’t throw up many clear opportunities usually. It’s the second leg that is often more interesting given what happens in the first.
The match that has caught my eye today is the Aris vs Man City match. Man City are quite short but should win away from home and their pedigree is unproven as yet. That’s the one that looks most interesting at first glance.
Arsenal’s price shoots out
The draw for the first knockout stage of the Champions League has been made and of the four English clubs in the competition Arsenal have been dealt the toughest two-legged clash by drawing Barcelona.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the price for the Gunners to win the tournament immediately doubled subsequent to the draw from around 15 to 30. Traders watching the proceedings may have been able to see that Arsenal were to draw Barca, anticipate the shift and beat the hordes to lay and back at the higher price. Well done if you did!
You may remember Lionel Messi’s four goals against Arsenal at the quarter final stage last year and for those who think he is likely to do so again, his odds to be the competition’s top scorer will prove attractive, even at 3.0. Chelsea’s Nicholas Anelka has five CL goals to his name so far this season and considering he will go against big outsiders FC Copenhagen next, his 13.0 to get the golden boot could also shorten after his side’s round of 32 match.
Full draw is as follows: Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk, AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Valencia v Schalke, Inter Milan v Bayern Munich, Lyon v Real Madrid, Arsenal v Barcelona, Marseille v Manchester United, FC Copenhagen v Chelsea.
Lessons from Liverpool
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on December 7th, 2010
Tonight we are in the final group stages of the champions league. These matches can throw up some odd results as some have strong incentives to win and others much less so.
Last night the market was pretty stable in the Liverpool vs Aston Villa match. Then the teamsheet came out and there was no Gerrard or Torres on it! You can see the effect this had on the price. It is always worth remembering that while football matches are generally very stable before the off, there are times when that is definately not the case. At least we can often get an understanding of why.
In the end the market got this wrong and Liverpool were comfortable winners. In hindsight some good value was created by this move.
Busy week ahead
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 23rd, 2010
World tour finals Tennis in London, top quality stuff afternoon and evening. Champions league football and then cricket throws in its hat with the Ashes. Going to be a great week to exit November!
Champions league ratings
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 20th, 2010
A successful night last night. The ratings plumped for 46 goals in all matches last night, including the champions league, and the matches delivered 43. For the champions league I was looking for 23 goals and got 25. The matches pretty much turned out as expected, though Basel’s win at Roma wasn’t on the radar. I reckon there will be around 23 goals tonight. Bear in mind there could be more or less but over the long term we will be pretty close.
This evening the matches look much more interesting with lots of nice setups across the board. How will Man Utd play after the Rooney kerfuffle this week, will Rangers shut out Valencia, will Spurs put in a good performance in Italy, will Barca thrash Copenhagen? There is lots to get stuck into this evening.
Most goals to least: -
Barcelona v FC Copenhagen
Man Utd v Bursaspor
Twente v W Bremen
Schalke v Hap Tel Aviv
Inter v Tottenham
Lyon v Benfica
Rangers v Valencia
Panathinaikos v Rubin Kazan