Posts Tagged champions league
It’s over
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 12th, 2010
Last night finally saw the World Cup end.
It’s been a great couple of months but I’m exhausted, so I am personally glad to see the end of this busy period. It’s really great having such opportunities, but it’s impossible to work flat out like this for any length of time. Time for some recuperation and hindsight. It has been very rewarding though, with last week bringing in my second biggest week ever.
I’ve also gathered lots of data to look at and come up with some new ideas, so I am really looking forward to digging through this and expanding my repertoire. I thought it was interesting last night that just short of £23m was matched on the World cup final last night and that it rose to ‘only’ £34m by the end of 90 minutes. That’s less than I expected.
No sooner than it fades away than it’s back. The football season is already undewary again as the second round of UEFA champions league qualifying takes place this week. Next weekend we have some decent pre-season friendlies. It’s going to be a busy year!
The battle for fourth place
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 6th, 2010
While most eyes were firmly focused on Man City vs Spurs last night, a remarkable battle was taking place 200 miles further north for the same place in the Scottish Premiership. Unlike the English battle, which ensured ‘arry team has broken into the previously exclusive top four, the battle in Scotland was for Europa cup place and infinity more exciting and in fact totally remarkable.
UK users can watch the highlights here: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/scot_prem/8658858.stm
The match ended 6-6 and that included a saved penalty! The last goal in the match was worthy of squaring such an amazing game. As soon as the result flashed in I was scrambling through my data to find out if there had ever been a 6-6 draw in the top divisions before. When I was young I was lucky enough to watch a 5-5 draw but 6-6 seemed a virtually impossible result. Just seeing twelve goals in a match was remote according to the stats. If you are optimistic then it would be around a 1 in 20,000 chance, but on average it would take nearly 70,000 matches before you would see 12 in one match, the chance of 6-6 would be even remoter.
My correct score spreadsheet didn’t show a single one so I had to dig around to find another. From what I can find , there have been two previous 6-6 draws. Leicester and Arsenal drew 6-6 in April 1930 in the top division, and Charlton drew 6-6 with Middlesbrough in October 1960 in the second division. Charlton had three other matches that season with six or more goals. So unless somebody can inform me otherwise in the many tens of thousands of intervening matches there have been no 6-6 draws. The mean return time appears to be 30-50 years for the entirety of top flight football.
I feel sorry for the Motherwell fans who left at 6-2 down, they just missed a piece of football history.
Backhim?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 10th, 2010
2-3 is an interesting score line for Mr Beckham to bring to Old Trafford. I thought Beckham was anonymous in the first match. I am sure he will want to do better in this leg. Two away goals is a killer for AC Milan and therefore Man U are at very short prices to qualify. Milan need a clear two goal win to stand any chance so they must score.
The market is pricing in just short of three goals with a .75 goal advantage to Man Utd. Similar to yesterdays Arsenal match. Would be a surprise to see a similar score line! I sense a tentative start by Man U who will wait to pick a hole in the Milan defence and try and catch them on the break. It’s Milan who have to make things happen!
Real Madrid are priced to comfortably over turn Lyon in their match. Priced at 3.20 goals with a 2.20 advantage. They only have one goal to overcome, but a Lyon away goal would really throw the cat among the pigeons. I think both matches show a lack of clear cut opportunties so I fancy making a little money before the off and picking some outside chances in both.
Return of the hulk
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 9th, 2010
I like this stage of the champions league. Something has to happen for a team to go through.
Arsenal are priced to beat Porto but there are many permutations available which mean that both sides have a big incentive to score. The market has been pretty accurate as a reflection of that. It is pricing in just under three goals with nearly a goal advantage to Arsenal. Usually you would expect these to be tight contests, but an early goal would create a significant incentive for another goal hence the pricing.
Arsenal have not turned around a first leg deficit in Europe since November 1 1978 but do have the advantage of the away goal. Wenger confirmed the importance of the away goal in a recent interview. ““Having the away goal is massive,” he said. “When you don’t have it you think that if we concede we are nearly dead.” On the flip side Porto don’t have a great record at the Emirates.
Porto have been patchy since the first leg. They thrashed second-place Braga 5-1 but then lost to Sporting Lisbon 3-0 and only salvaged 2-2 draw at lowly Olhanense thanks to an injury time goal. Should be a good game, Arsenal can’t afford to sit back and Porto need that away goal. My biggest ever win on champions league match came courtesy of Porto at Man Utd, so I’ll have above average interest in the game.
Champions league trading
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 17th, 2010
Porto vs. Arsenal
Priced at a lowly 2.30 goals, this is fairly typical construction for a match of this type. Porto are priced as having a slight edge but only just. The market is pretty much spot on in terms of pricing.
B.Munich vs. Fiorentina
A less competitive clash according to the market. Priced at 2.90 with Munich having a 1.30 goal advantage. Under 2.50 goals offers long term value, I would have priced at 2.14 vs. 2.22 in the market.
League football is where I perform best and where I have most of my data, so I am always quite likely to build a lot more margin of safety into these matches. I suggest you do the same. First legs of the knockout round in this competition tend to be dominated by teams playing safe for the first leg and trying to sneak a goal. Home teams are usually desperate not to concede an away goal. We didn’t see that last night in Italy where Man Utd are in a dominant position for the return leg. When I saw the odds for the match I didn’t really believe that they were so favourble for a Man Utd win, but the market was right.
Don’t forget that in these big games it is quite easy to trade before the off. There is so much money passing through the markets that you can trade quite casually and still manage to get a positive result. When you have done that, you will have some free cash to throw at an outside chance in-play. A good tactic even if you are not into football much. Little risk, plenty of upside.
If you want to view some videos on trading on Soccer / Football. We have a number here. Soccer Mystic is free when you have a subscription to Bet Angel.
Arsenal vs Man Utd.
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 5th, 2009
What an interesting prospect we have tonight!
Thanks to the vagaries of the aggregate score system you would think that somebody must score to go through tonight. Well I suppose it could go to extra time and penalties but you would hazard a guess that both teams would look to seal it before that. Arsenal need to overturn a 1-0 deficit, which doesn’t look impossible and Man U know if they score Arsenal will need three goals.
This seems to be reflected in the market, as it is pricing in more or less 2.4-2.5 goals with a tiny advantage to Man U. This is significant because matches of these types would typically be priced at a much lower goal tally. However, most of the ‘derivate’ markets seem to reflect that in their pricing and the prices look pretty much spot on across the board.
The draw trading higher at some point looks a distinct possibility. Man Utd got away with a slim result in Porto so I doubt they will want to hold onto a 0-0 or risk squeezing another tight result. An interesting scenario and one that would create a very entertaining match would be an early goal by either side. I suspect that each manager has instructions not to concede early, at any cost. Should be an interesting match, lets hope for an early goal.
Champions league – Past performance
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 29th, 2009
When you read a financial sales letter or advertisment, they always put that little caveat in that “past performance is not an indicator of future performance”, how apt in the current environment!!! You may be interested to know this often afflicts the betting market also.
It seems to be a classic case of placing too much reliance on past activity. What you often tend to find is that if something unusual has happened recently people think it has a higher chance of happening again. It’s like watching people playing roulette and upping their stake, just because red has come in six times in a row.
For a more recent example look at tonights champions league. Based upon the free scoring quarter finals you may find that tonights market gets mis-priced at the higher end of the market, i.e. it makes sense to lay and vice versa. I’m tempted to put this into use tonight on the correct score market. It may not work tonight but I am pretty sure that over the long term I will end ahead as that’s always been the case.
You may want to try using the ducthing to a profit target option to take advantage of the many opportunities and potential strategies in play on the correct score market. I’ve embedded a video of this function. This is where I will be lurking tonight.
A classic case for lay the draw?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 14th, 2009
Both champions league matches tonight are interesting from the viewpoint that somebody HAS to score. Liverpool have a mountain to climb after their comprehensive defeat at home and they must score to have any chance. They have nothing to lose. Much depends on whether Chelsea kill the game off or simply pack men behind the ball. I’m not sure what Hiddinks instructions will be? It’s quite possible they will just try to frustrate Liverpool and then catch them on the break when Liverpool push too far forward. Given history, this doesn’t look like a good plan as one early goal could really fire Liverpool up. I suspect though that Chelsea will not be adventerous for the same reason.
The market is priced for 2.58 goals and a slight advantage to Chelsea, but only slight.
Bayern Munich however need a bigger miracle and playing at home must surely score at least once! I suspect this will be all out Bayern attack as it doesn’t really matter if they can’t score. Barca will surely just sit back and try and nick a goal if they can and kill the tie. Whatever happens, Bayern will be desperate to make amends for some poor performances and will almost certainly do anything to get a goal or two. Of the two matches this is the one most likely to see a goal and the market has priced in at least three. You can’t have half a goal each so this looks like a good candidate for a lay the draw and trade out type position. There you go, I’ve cursed it now!
Make sure you use Soccer Mystic to work out your risk and profit scenarios for these games.
Champions league is back – Inter vs Man Utd
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 24th, 2009
Tonight sees the resumption of the champions league with the intriguing match of Inter vs Man Utd.
Mixed signals are coming out of both camps about how they will play. Mourinho suggesting defence will be key, Ferguson hinting that won’t be the case. I doubt either are likely to tell you exactly what they are thinking.
The market is thinking about a draw. The goal forecast from the market is for 2.20 goals on average with a slight edge to Inter. Looking at my stats I reckon Man Utd are a little too short in the market. Fair value should be around 3.05-3.35. Under 2.5 goals should be around 1.56 for a match with these characteristics, so that looks long term value.
If you are interested in how I view this match and the most sensible way to trade it, view the following video. The following video was made using Soccer Mystic. Soccer Mystic is free when you sign up to Bet Angel.