Posts Tagged chelsea
Match of the season
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 8th, 2011
A tantalising match this afternoon between Man Utd and Chelsea and the market is being cautious by pricing up Man Utd at 2.34 for the win. I would have priced Chelsea near 4.00 for a win here, but with so much at stake; its probably right for the price to be a bit shorter. The market is priced for 2.50 goals with 1.30 going to Man Utd.
Home advantage is historically 0.40 goals so if you take that out, the market is saying Man Utd are 0.90 goals better than Chelsea. If you think that is too high then you should back Chelsea. Away teams typically score first around 40% of the time in matches like this, so there are several strategic options available for you. I am visiting relatives for the day so no chance for me to trade unfortunately. But, thanks to the wonders of modern technology, I should be able to watch it.
If you want to do something with more certainty then look no further than the Italian league. The volume leader in all matches for whole of today, when I did my analysis this morning, was Bolonga vs Parma with over £600k traded already. Nearly all that is on the draw, which is priced at the astoundingly low price of 1.41. I wonder how that match will pan out 
Cat and mouse
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 12th, 2011
I’m expecting a game of cat and mouse tonight at Old Trafford, both teams would like to score but both have very strong incentives not to concede. This is the only match that holds any great interest in the remaining quarter finals, the others are formalities it would seem. I’ll put some energy into this match this evening but I’ll be planning on doing something else tomorrow.
Man Utd vs. Chelsea is priced at 2.40 goals with a 0.25 goal advantage to Man Utd. That seems a little light on both accounts. The first leg had a rousing start and with a bit of luck Chelsea would have scored. You sense they will go for it tonight and try and get that critical away goal. If they don’t it will be a timid exit from the competition. I’m already busy working some money into the market and will try and look for an outside chance, Chelsea or goals, to get the money rolling in-play.
Showdown
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 6th, 2011
Barcelona are priced for an easy win against Shakhtar and I can’t see beyond that. Barca will want to put this to bed comprehensively in the first leg. However, there are decent trades available for this scenario. Goals give you plenty of scope to hedge good set ups.
Last night’s legs were uncompetitive and the return legs look a formality now, which is a shame. The same can’t be said of tonights showdown at Stamford Bridge. I would have priced in a very tight match with little to either side but the market has priced it like two teams of equal ability but with home advantage to Chelsea. So your decision should centre on whether you feel that this is like a normal league fixture, I’d argue not.
If you look at matches where Chelsea are priced in a similar manner to tonight, then the last eight read WWLDDDDW. In these matches Chelsea have not scored more than two goals and the match hasn’t contained three goals once. Will either team risk it tonight? I doubt it, a Chelsea goal will see Man Utd try to stop conceding another and a Man Utd goal will see them shut up shop. Advantage Ferguson.
Tangerine time
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 7th, 2011
Interesting match this evening with Blackpool up against Chelsea. It must seem a long time since Blackpool charged up the league with some notable wins against high profile opposition. Only a couple of points above the drop zone, their focus now must be on the bottom of the league, rather than the top.
I’m not ashamed to say that Blackpool was one of my favourites to get relegated this season. Nothing against Blackpool, who have been very entertaining this season, but they are just not set up for the premier league.
They would appear to be up against it this evening with the suspension of two key players. They also have the worse defensive record in the league so goals seem pretty assured. Cue a 0-0 scoreline!
I’ve put up some more info on the forum for discussion.
Blackpool league position - Courtesy of Statto.com
Arsenal’s price shoots out
The draw for the first knockout stage of the Champions League has been made and of the four English clubs in the competition Arsenal have been dealt the toughest two-legged clash by drawing Barcelona.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the price for the Gunners to win the tournament immediately doubled subsequent to the draw from around 15 to 30. Traders watching the proceedings may have been able to see that Arsenal were to draw Barca, anticipate the shift and beat the hordes to lay and back at the higher price. Well done if you did!
You may remember Lionel Messi’s four goals against Arsenal at the quarter final stage last year and for those who think he is likely to do so again, his odds to be the competition’s top scorer will prove attractive, even at 3.0. Chelsea’s Nicholas Anelka has five CL goals to his name so far this season and considering he will go against big outsiders FC Copenhagen next, his 13.0 to get the golden boot could also shorten after his side’s round of 32 match.
Full draw is as follows: Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk, AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Valencia v Schalke, Inter Milan v Bayern Munich, Lyon v Real Madrid, Arsenal v Barcelona, Marseille v Manchester United, FC Copenhagen v Chelsea.
FA Cup Final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 15th, 2010
A curious one this year. Chelsea are on for the double and will surely try their best to get it. Pompey have performed miracles to get the final and wont want to lose it. Chelsea are at a very short price so I’d be nervous mopping up at that price.
Curiously we have profiled this match and it has come out very similar to the Chelsea vs Stoke match on the 25/4/10. Of course Chelsea won this 7-0! All similar matches were easy wins for the stronger side, no surprise there. If you tweak the parameters a bit you end up with B Munich vs Hannover which also ended up 7-0, Barcelona vs Malaga 6-0 and Real Madrid vs Zaragoza which was also 6-0. The market is pricing in 3.20 goals and 2.60 of them to Chelsea. There have been a few draws here and there but the market is discounting a very one sided final which shouldn’t be a surprise considering it’s top vs bottom. I guess the only real comparison you can point at would be Man U vs Milwall a few years ago which ended 3-0 but even that isn’t a direct comparison.
I’m probably going to go for trading any unquoted on this match. I can’t see Chelsea letting this slip, but it is a cup final and Pompey have had a bit of a fairytale route to the final, so a bit of money on big outside odds probably isn’t a terrible idea.
Two horse race
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 2nd, 2010
So the premiership has narrowed to a two horse race to the line. Chelsea meet Liverpool and Wigan, while Man Utd mean Sunderland and Stoke. On the face of it Chelsea’s 1 point advantage looks tight but when I ran through all the possible combinations and, on average, the one point advantage should be enough to win it. Of course it really hinges on the result at Liverpool, so that really is the championship decider. That match is going to make compelling viewing.
I was thinking of posting up the stats, but its a big spreadsheet with lots of varitions and averaging etc. So I don’t think it’s easy enough to explain. But, there are eighteen paths to follow by the look of it but only four of those can result in Man Utd winning the premiership. For exanple Chelsea not to win on Sunday and Man Utd to win comes in at a 33% chance but for neither to win the next match is only a 4% chance. Basically, whichever way you cut it, Chelsea should do it, on average. You can’t help but thinking though, that at 1.58 to win the championship and with an away trip to Liverpool, it just doesn’t seem value does it?
1.58 says the title is mine Fergie, grazie
FA CUP fifth round
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 13th, 2010
I like the later stages of knockout competitions. There is lots to play for and when a goal down and ten minutes are left , it’s all or nothing. These are the places you not only find value but plenty of opportunity and teams playing out of their skin, I love it! Wembley stadium is only a few games away today and anything can happen.
I’ve checked through the odds and nothing wierd has been thrown up. But consider the general picture if you are going to have a play today. With Chelsea and Man City at home it would be a shock to see an upset there, but you may want to be with Stoke if you are looking for one. They have nothing to lose and Man City seem a little fragile. Backing Chelsea at 1.16 is more of a punt than a trade, so look to secondary markets for an opportunity. Cardiff will probably fight a rearguard action and hope to nick something on the break.
Derby, Reading and Southampton are all matches with similar traits. Weaker team playing at home with strong away teams. Both Reading and Southampton will fancy their chances but I’m not so sure about Derby. These matches will probably be played with caution by the stronger away team who don’t want to concede and give the home side an advantage. So I suspect not making mistakes will be the order of the day for the away sides. The longer the match goes on the more the quality should show. An early goal by either side will upset the apple cart.
Both Derby and Southampton’s matches are priced in as low scoring affairs, with little advantage to either side. Usually these matches turn out to scrappy draws. I think the price on the draw should be a little shorter.
Whatever happens, I’ll be on the lookout for late goals, as that is the key characteristic of knockout competitions.
Ratings: -
Chelsea vs. Cardiff Goals: 3.4 Supremacy: 2.8
Man City vs. Stoke Goals: 2.8 Supremacy: 1.8
Reading vs. West Brom Goals: 2.7 Supremacy: -0.1
Southampton vs. Portsmouth Goals: 2.5 Supremacy: -0.1
Derby vs. Birmingham Goals: 2.4 Supremacy: -0.2
The one that got away
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 6th, 2009
Ah well, you could feel it coming but I just, by seconds, failed to get filled with a very short priced lay on Chelsea this evening. Would have walked away with a nice profit but that counts for nothing now as my lay did not get filled, despite touching my target price. Somebody got filled ahead of me, so well done to the punter that got filled at 1.05. For the sake of an extra £10 I could have bagged £1k! Still, I made the decision to go for 1.05, such is life. It will happen again.
Bad luck Chelsea, but one goal was never safe enough. I always feel it’s incredible with such amounts of money at stake, that we don’t have video refs at this level. I think if I was a Chelsea player I would have also gone nuts at the end.