Posts Tagged cricket trading
Morgan inclusion offers opportunity
England’s World Cup bid suffered another setback with the news of Stuart Broad’s injury that has ruled him out for the remainder of the tournament. The loss of Broad was even more of a blow as Kevin Pietersen has already returned home for surgery. Paceman Chris Tremlett has been called in at short notice to help out with the bowling duties.
Eoin Morgan will step in to fill KP’s boots and is likely to have his first opportunity to impress against Bangladesh. This may just be a blessing in disguise given the Irishman’s ODI record. England have played 38 matches with the Irishman in the starting XI and they have won 20 of those matches. Without the batsmen in the side, England have played seven matches and won only three of those.
The winning percentage with Morgan playing since his debut is 52.63%, while it drops to 42.86% when he’s not picked. Morgan has averaged 40 runs in his ODI career since his debut and he has scored three centuries.
There’s further support that England may actually benefit from Pietersen’s injury as England’s win percentage is actually lower when he starts. England have played 112 ODI’s with KP in the side and have won 49 and lost 51.
Without the big-hitting batsman, England have played 39 matches – winning 18 and losing 21. The winning percentage since KP’s debut is 46.15% when England haven’t been able to call upon him and it’s 43.75% when he has started.
Many punters will feel that without KP in the side England are set to score fewer, but the analysis reveals that isn’t necessarily the case. This offers an opportunity for astute traders to take advantage of England’s lower total runs price and look to make a larger profit with Morgan’s positive effect.
Hoping for luck of the Irish
We don’t often discuss cricket, but the World Cup is on right now so it’s a good time to do so.
Just before the World Cup began I looked at England’s prices, and despite going unbeaten in their opening two group games, they have lengthened from around 6.0 to 10.0 to lift the trophy.
Next up for the Three Lions is Ireland and England will know they cannot take William Porterfield’s side lightly given their close call against another Associate nation. England’s slim margin of victory against Netherlands perhaps makes their match odds of 1.04 seem stingy, but I certainly would not be laying after England sensationally matched India’s huge total on Sunday. Outright trading opportunities are limited so we might do better to look at the range of other markets on offer.
Andrew Strauss’s knock of 158 against the hosts puts him at the head of the tournament batting charts with a total of 246 runs and an average of 123.00. He is 1.71 to score a 50, and it’s worth backing now. It will only shorten if he stays in for a few overs and there are few better equipped to keep a cool head and mount an early score against Ireland’s often wayward bowlers.
Youngster George Dockrell displayed his talents against Bangladesh with two wickets and England will be keeping a close eye on the 18-year-old spinner, who has said in the build-up to this game that he is considering pursuing a career with the English Test side. He’s favourite to be Ireland’s top wicket taker, but that looks a lay at 6.4. He proved economical against Bangladesh, but four wickets fell before he claimed a scalp.
Overreaction to Aussie supremacy?
Having taken a look at the stats in preparation for the fourth Ashes Test down under, one of the things that has really stood out is that there has not been a draw at the MCG since 1997. In that period there have been 10 Australian victories and England were beaten by an innings and 99 runs the last time the sides clashed.
There’s no denying that the Baggy Greens have an excellent record at the MCG, but traders should remember that the Aussies are a shadow of the team they were last time England visited the imposing venue.
Other than the batting collapse in Perth, England have been the dominant side in the series and their price – they were available at 3.25 on Betdaq at time of writing - looks longer than it should be for this pivotal contest. Unlike the pitch in Perth, the MCG track will help negate the pace attack from the Aussies while also allowing spinner Graeme Swann to have a say in the result, something he was largely denied last time.
Overall England look the better value to win the Boxing Day clash and that of course would mean a British return for the urn. I would certainly expect England’s price come in a fair bit towards the middle of the contest.