Posts Tagged derby
In the wrong Kompany!
Posted by Peter Webb in FA CUP, Football / Soccer on January 14th, 2012
There are many cases for backing or laying at 1.02. But last Sunday we had a great example of why you just wouldn’t back at such short odds.
First off lets look at the odds: -
At 1.02 you would return £2 for every £100 staked. If you laid, then the opposing situation is true; you would earn £100 for every £2 lost. At odds of 1.02 the market is telling you there is a 98% of this situation occurring. To get value from this situation you have to know that the event you are betting on will occur over 98% of the time. If you lay then you could concur that the opposing situation should be true, you would only stand a 2% chance of possibly winning anything. But that’s not actually true, thanks to volatility.
Therefore the trick to doing a successful trade is to expose yourself to potential upside at the lowest risk, then wait.
At half time in this match Man Utd were 3-0 up, away from home, in the FA Cup, a player up, in a local Derby. If you were in the dressing room at half time what would you recommend to your players? With a three goal lead and more players you could push on to try and finish the match and risk conceding, but at 3-0 up the match is all but lost by your opponents. Probably best then to try and limit your opponents opportunities, i.e. defend.
If you were Man City would you would probably feel aggrieved with that red card and would be desperate to avoid the sort of humiliation they dished out to their opponents at their ground, but also you would want to get things sorted out pretty sharpish in the second half.
If you backed Man Utd, you would have exposed yourself to 45 minutes of angst. OK they were likely to win but with the normal distribution of a goal well below 45 minutes, especially for the home team, a goal from City was quite likely and the odds would respond. You can use Soccer Mystic to work out upside you have, or how much time you have before your downside completes. If you laid, then it would take some time for the price on Man Utd to sink to 1.01 to Lay, but in that time your would expose yourself to plenty of upside.
Last Sunday it made sense to lay.
Red card, for the ref?
United vs City
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 23rd, 2011
One of the big matches of the season is up today, the Manchester Derby. I’m really intrigued.
This is the real acid test of who is going to be in the ascendancy over the season. Both have thrown down the gauntlet with very good early season performances and matching each other stride for stride so far. So this match is the first opportunity to throw both in the mix and see what comes out of the melting pot.
You have to feel there is a good chance of a draw. Either side will not want to lose and that will cause either side to really chase down a goal if they go behind. Local matches always throw up more draws than non local matches anyhow. I’d love to watch it but unfortunately I will be on a plane at kick off so I wont get to see it at all. I’ll have to fire up my laptop to view the highlights when I land.
Good luck if you are getting involved. You may be interested in taking up Betdaq’s offer of your commission back if either team come from behind to win. Click here to learn more about the offer. Just how often would this happen? On average the away team scores first 44% of the time. 32% of the time they will score first but not win, so it’s a definite possibility. But, Manchester City have only won once at Old Trafford since 1974 – a 2-1 victory for Sven-Goran Eriksson’s side in 2008. It’s going to be an interesting battle.
Click here to learn more about the offer
Derby result
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 4th, 2011
A satisfactory result. Not my best, but not my worst either. The market seemed pretty boyant today and volumes were much better than last year. Racing should be thankful that the Queen will bring so much attention to next years Derby. Can’t only help can’t it?
I’m taking tomorrow off from an activity perspective. I had hoped to trade the mens final at the French Open tennis, but I’ve been going downhill the last few days with a heavy cold and need a rest. I’ve struggled today. Hopefully I’ll be fit and raring to go again come Monday.
Derby Day
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 4th, 2011
An interesting day yesterday. The two Tennis semi finals were good, but not perfect trading fodder. I could have done with Murray coming back into the match a bit. Nadal / Murray had matched bet volume of £30m, the other semi was almost exactly the same amount. The Oaks had matched bet turnover of £2.6m.
Turnover on the Oaks was up on last year, but that can be accounted for by the way the field manifests itself. I will be keeping a keen eye out for the numbers on the Derby today. Given all the press around the Derby it should attract more than average interest today you would think.
Tennis will have to take a back seat to the horses today. I may look at the footy later depending on how the racing is going. I’ve got a really bad summer cold and chest infection to go with it, so I may have an easier day if the afternoon goes well.
Oaks
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 4th, 2010
If you would have asked me what the Oaks were ten years ago, I would have talked to you about what the Victorians planted en masse on the green in the next village on from where I live. Now, my first thought turns to Epsom. How things have changed in ten years.
It was the Oaks that was Betfair’s first market ten years ago, but it was on the 11th June that year, not the 4th. So Betfair are just a week away from celebrating their tenth birthday. Ten years ago I was probably worried about a different sort of fill rate. I was probably parked in some retailers head office talking to them about product selection and how quickly certain items were selling. I remember sitting in a Cafe in Chantilly debating with a colleague what we would be doing in ten years time. I told him that it almost certainly wouldn’t be what I was doing then. He is still doing the same thing, but as somebody who is ever restless, its no real surprise that I am not. What will I be doing in ten years time now? I’d probably be tempted to give the same answer as I did ten years ago.
FA CUP fifth round
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 13th, 2010
I like the later stages of knockout competitions. There is lots to play for and when a goal down and ten minutes are left , it’s all or nothing. These are the places you not only find value but plenty of opportunity and teams playing out of their skin, I love it! Wembley stadium is only a few games away today and anything can happen.
I’ve checked through the odds and nothing wierd has been thrown up. But consider the general picture if you are going to have a play today. With Chelsea and Man City at home it would be a shock to see an upset there, but you may want to be with Stoke if you are looking for one. They have nothing to lose and Man City seem a little fragile. Backing Chelsea at 1.16 is more of a punt than a trade, so look to secondary markets for an opportunity. Cardiff will probably fight a rearguard action and hope to nick something on the break.
Derby, Reading and Southampton are all matches with similar traits. Weaker team playing at home with strong away teams. Both Reading and Southampton will fancy their chances but I’m not so sure about Derby. These matches will probably be played with caution by the stronger away team who don’t want to concede and give the home side an advantage. So I suspect not making mistakes will be the order of the day for the away sides. The longer the match goes on the more the quality should show. An early goal by either side will upset the apple cart.
Both Derby and Southampton’s matches are priced in as low scoring affairs, with little advantage to either side. Usually these matches turn out to scrappy draws. I think the price on the draw should be a little shorter.
Whatever happens, I’ll be on the lookout for late goals, as that is the key characteristic of knockout competitions.
Ratings: -
Chelsea vs. Cardiff Goals: 3.4 Supremacy: 2.8
Man City vs. Stoke Goals: 2.8 Supremacy: 1.8
Reading vs. West Brom Goals: 2.7 Supremacy: -0.1
Southampton vs. Portsmouth Goals: 2.5 Supremacy: -0.1
Derby vs. Birmingham Goals: 2.4 Supremacy: -0.2
Man Utd time
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 20th, 2009
Couldn’t help but watch the Manchester Derby. Man United desperately needed a late goal at home and guess what, the officials managed to find nearly seven minutes of extra time to allow Man Utd the best possible chance to score. Has this happened before I ask?
The average extra time added is around three minutes. So seven minutes is right at the far end of the bell curve, given that it represents 15% extra time in the half. But what is even more amazing is that the officials clearly, clearly, signalled FOUR minutes of added time. City manager Hughes was complaining on the touch line as to why the match was continuing well past the allocated time, he knew what was coming. The plain truth is that the match should have ended at least 90 seconds before Owen slotted in the winner. Hughes will quite rightly feel very aggrieved that yet again a match at Old Trafford finally ends when Manchester United eventually put the ball in the net.
No sour grapes from me, just an observation. When the match has drifted well into extra time I laid the draw with the profit I had made on scalping it after the sixth goal, but I would certainly wish this scenario wouldn’t play out time and time again at Old Trafford. I would happily dismiss claims of bias as an optical illusion but when you see something like that, it just doesn’t feel right, does it!
Steaming Saturday
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 6th, 2009
Well the weather wasn’t steaming but the markets were!
I guess with five cards going on it was always likely to throw up quite a few different opportunities. It felt like nearly every other race had some major activity going on. I’ll have a good look at it next week to see exactly what happened and report back. Gut feel is that there were lots of sharp movements and I definitely saw a lot of really big steamers. I grabbed a few screenshots of some of them. These sorts of moves are great if you are swing trading and catch it right, but a mare if you don’t get it right or try and scalp something moving at a million miles an hour!
Big focus of course was the Derby and it delivered. Volume matched at the off was £6.1m vs. £4.7m last year so I managed to pull a decent result out of it and beat last years result. I hope you had a good result on the Derby also. Things are getting very busy now and Royal Ascot is only just around the corner, I can’t wait!
