Posts Tagged england
Poppycock
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on November 9th, 2011
You wouldn’t think such a widely accepted charity symbol could possibly be a controversial figure, but I am sure that FIFA are determined to make it so. You would think a largely political organisation would be able to successfully brush aside any possible controversy about remembering the sacrifice people make during wars in a calm and reasoned manner before anything controversial came of it. But FIFA appear to have fowled up again on this one.
You can see the logic of stopping national teams making statements on their shirt, but I’m not sure this is the case on this occasion. If I were the FA I would stop the arguing and give every supporter in the stadium a poppy before the match starts, send a Lancaster over the pitch with a belly full of poppies and put one prominently in the background at the start of the match. Something to show FIFA why they need to rethink future similar decisions.
My eldest daughter is just discovering, through her history lessons, at high school just what happened during the war and the incredible waste of life that took place. Nobody should ever forget that.
Overreaction to Aussie supremacy?
Having taken a look at the stats in preparation for the fourth Ashes Test down under, one of the things that has really stood out is that there has not been a draw at the MCG since 1997. In that period there have been 10 Australian victories and England were beaten by an innings and 99 runs the last time the sides clashed.
There’s no denying that the Baggy Greens have an excellent record at the MCG, but traders should remember that the Aussies are a shadow of the team they were last time England visited the imposing venue.
Other than the batting collapse in Perth, England have been the dominant side in the series and their price – they were available at 3.25 on Betdaq at time of writing - looks longer than it should be for this pivotal contest. Unlike the pitch in Perth, the MCG track will help negate the pace attack from the Aussies while also allowing spinner Graeme Swann to have a say in the result, something he was largely denied last time.
Overall England look the better value to win the Boxing Day clash and that of course would mean a British return for the urn. I would certainly expect England’s price come in a fair bit towards the middle of the contest.
Trade the Ashes to Adelaide…
Australia enter the second Ashes Test under intense pressure after being humiliated by England, who managed to turn around the first Test in Brisbane last week.
The Adelaide Oval, venue for the Second Test, was once famous for throwing up frequent draws, although there have only been three here since 1991.
If anyone’s considering laying the draw on Betfair or Betdaq (currently trading at 2.06), I wouldn’t disagree with them, despite Australia seemingly lacking a convincingly reliable wicket taker and cooler weather forecast which will probably not help the pitch to break up. However, I will point out the potential benefits of backing now before laying off after day one.
The Oval track is undoubtedly a batsman’s pitch and we are likely to see some big totals on the first couple of days. If the batting team have racked up a hefty score without the loss of too many wickets, the price for a draw is sure to shorten to odds-on, at which point you can lay off to lock in a profit.
Are England Hungary enough?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 11th, 2010
After that rather forgettable world cup campaign do England have enough enthusiasm to munch through some goals against Hungary?
Some new blood is expected to be on the pitch this evening but I can’t muster much enthusiasm for the match. From a betting and trading perspective I don’t like friendlies as it’s difficult to really establish what the true price should be. That makes recommending a really viable and worthwhile strategy incredibly tough. I struggle to participate in things I don’t understand or can’t model and friendlies fall right into that category.
The market is pricing in three goals in total and 2.40 of those to England so it should be a comfortable England win. I think the most ‘interesting’ bet though is from Paddy Power. You can get 5/1 on “Any England player to be caught giving an offensive gesture to the crowd”
Ouch, that’s embarrassing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
I don’t think it needs any more comment really does it? Apparently the English league is the most competitive and highly paid in the world with some of the best individuals. And individuals they will remain!!!
I’ve consoled myself by smashing into a few horse races that followed the match, sorry about that! But one of them was the Irish Derby, too good to miss. Grabbing a few hundred will allow me to drown my sorrows tonight.
Obviously blatter is happy to see this time and time again
Coin flippers re-union at 3pm
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
Had a look at THE match stats this morning.
The market has priced in just a shade over two goals for the Germany vs England match. England have a 0.10 goal advantage. The market is pricing in a tight nervous affair where one goal could be enough, but a draw is the most likely result. Obviously if you share two goals amongst two teams then a draw is very likely.
I sense a nervous two hours come 3pm but having read the Germany press this morning, putting the rally calls aside, Germany seem equally nervous after there last two performances. This is where managers and tactics can make a big difference.
I won’t be taking a position during the match for obvious reasons, but will be trading pre-off. Good luck if you are having a go. Going to be a great day in the UK for watching the match, will it be a memorable one?
The maths behind penalities – Part Two
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
Yesterday we saw that goalkeepers are basically glory seekers, or at least showing that they understand the psychology of failing the right way. Today we give a final answer on what David James should do if faced by a German penalty today.
Often the best way to look at something is to turn it on it’s head. When we looked at penalities we saw that while kicks are randomly distributed, the goalkeepers actions are not. So lets look at when they get it right.
In the sample we were looking at, 32/268 penalties were ‘saved’, around 11%. Saved shots were reasonably equally distributed whether the taker sent them left right or down the middle. But, when you combine this with goalkeeping stats one thing really stands out. If the goalkeeper stands in the middle and a shot is sent in roughly that direction, it was saved 60% of the time. This is more than double the rate at which a goalkeeper who guesses right can save a kick. Obviously if a shot is sent left and the goalkeeper goes right the strike rate is err.. zero.
Whichever way you look at it, standing still is actually a good tactic. It’s difficult to reach the ball in a far corner from a good penalty taker, so it’s better to captialise on nervous takers who don’t want to risk missing. Of course this all depends on one penalty being independant from another. Let on that you are going to stand still and you increase the chance that the ball will not go down the centre. That is where it gets more complex, should your strikers assume the goalkeeper will dive or stand still? Logic tells you to send it into the corner but reality indicates that at least half the time the goalkeeper will dive that way. It all comes down to psychology. With England so fragile I would be tempted to suggest, just keep in on target and hit it hard. James should stand still and be prepared to get it in the neck for ‘not trying’. That should do the trick.
If you want to do more research ahead of today’s match I suggest you visit: -
http://www.penaltyshootouts.co.uk/
For the definite way to take a penalty, I’ll leave it to the master.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/2275796.stm
The maths behind penalities – Part One
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 26th, 2010
Groups stages, tight games, can’t afford to lose, Germany, England. This must only add up to one thing, penalties!
Are we going to suffer again, will there be the same agony as in prior years? Penalties is another area I have looked at and I think the findings may be of use to any prospective England goalkeeper facing a penalty, football traders may also benefit.
First off, you can reach some easy conclusions. From spot to net, the ball will travel just 12 yards and it is estimated that this will happen in about 0.30 seconds. Stikers should score from this distance! This also forces each goalkeeper to make a decision about what to do, BEFORE, the ball is struck; he has to anticipate which way to dive. He could dive left, right or stand still.
This is where a subtle peice of psychology comes into play, it is what I shall call the action / inaction bias. Imagine the scenario, you know that any goal in a match in the knockout stages will be significant and that by saving a penalty you will almost certainly have a significant impact on the match and on your status. What do you do? If you stand in the middle of the goal like a lemon you could be a national pariah if a goal is conceded. Dive spectacularly and tip it around the post and the praise will come flooding in. What happens is that the goalkeeper ends up facing the same dilemma and regret pang as a gambler or trader. The goalkeeper is fearing the negative consequences of his actions, rather than making a logical and reasoned choice. This fear is so overwhelming it has a strange effect. In 286 matches analysed, the goalkeeper dived in one direction or another 268 times. He went for glory 94% of the time. Did the goalkeeper make a logical choice? To do this you need to analyse where the ball went.
Over the same 286 matches the penalty taker more or less evenly distributed the shots left, right and centre either by design or accident. In the data I looked at there was a bias to the right hand side but there could be many reasons for that. Excluding the bias it was a random shot choice. Therefore the goal keepers definitely were making a sub-optimal decision by choosing to dive so often. Penalty takers struck the ball down the middle nearly 29% of the time, goalkeepers only stood there around 6% of the time! If you are a goalkeeper, standing idly would appear to be a decent choice but as shots were equally distributed then any random choice would be sensible.
If you are a striker then you should engage in some gamesmanship to encourage the goalkeeper to dive, then send the ball down the middle. But there is more logic to taking and saving and that’s what I will cover tomorrow….
That match
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 23rd, 2010
Given the gloom and doom I am almost tempted to back England this evening. But much of that depends on price and what the team looks like when it is announced. The match is priced for 2.56 goals with a 1.60 advantage to England, yeah right! England just haven’t looked a potent threat upfront and I think it’s optimistic to imagine a free flowing high scoring game, lets hope I am wrong!
If you look at the world cup so far though, the market has forecasted around 2.30-2.40 goals a game. On average, I am missing a few matches and not totally up to date, there has only been an average of slightly less than two. This is a low scoring competition! I had forecast this a few months ago when I wrote an article for a magazine. In 1998 there was an average of 2.67 goals, 2.52 in 2002 and 2.30 in 2006. This tournament could see a new low. I suspect this is just due to the fact that the teams are much more competitive now thanks to so many players whose home team is not even in their country of origin now.
Anyhow, come on England!
Not a joke
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 19th, 2010
Honestly, not a joke; but this is the book I am reading at the moment just before I go to bed. It’s actually a really good read and highly recommended for sports traders!
It does what it says on the tin
1.05 about to be turned over?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 19th, 2010
Should England pack up and come home? Traded at 1.05 to qualify last night must have those backers quivering. After failing to beat Algeria, which most teams in the English football league could surely achieve, has there ever been a more defining moment in English national football?
For many, many years we have had loads of great individuals but seemingly no team. Last night showed this up in clear light again and surely the time has come to stop picking individuals and go for a real footballing team. Everybody knows Gerrard and Lampard can’t play together. The Man Utd team is geared around supplying Rooney with chances, England is not. Last night was just a completely inept performance on a scale I have not seen before. At least Gerrard could see that and hung his head while admitting it wasn’t good enough, the less said about Rooney the better. With little to lose why not go radical and put Defoe and Crouch upfront, drop Rooney, Lampard and inject some real energy into the game. If we put out another lame performance, then I think we should scrap the whole thing and start again, we just can’t go on like this.
Over-reaction, maybe, but I did wait till this morning to write this and I think lots of people feel the same.
Some people paid a lot of money to watch that Wayne.
England’s fate already known
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 18th, 2010
When England step out onto the pitch this evening they will know what they need to do. If the USA get a good result against Slovenia, then England really need to dispatch Algeria with confidence. If not it all goes to the last game. I say this because the English will probably want to avoid the impressive Germans. No point in holding out for a draw in the knockout phase is there?
The US are priced at 2.20 goals against Slovenia with a 0.40 goal advantage. By a coincidence that is the same advantage as a normal match with home advantage, so the market is saying the US are effectively playing at home; well sort of! England are a much more generous 2.70 goals with a 2.00 goal advantage, they should win comfortably, should.
Two mitigating factors in play therefore before England kick off, the US result and how the German’s play in the first match of the day. If Capello is worth his salt he will use these two earlier results to really fire up the team. Which ever way these early matches go, I think it’s advantage England thanks to the timing.
Blunt start by England
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 12th, 2010
In fact, most of the matches have been pretty blunt, which seems to often be the case in the world cup early matches. England had a great chance to really get off to a good start after taking the lead so early, but I don’t feel there were aggressive enough going forward. England now need to convincingly win the next two games or they could end up on the wrong side of the draw.
No doubt the following image will sum up the match in the press tomorrow morning.
USA 1 – 0 England
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 11th, 2010
Not a premonition but a recollection of times gone past. Until England drew the US in the group stages I wasn’t even aware of this episode of sporting history. It seems England have always been under-performers, but perhaps were a bit unlucky on this occasion. You would get 17′s for a repeat performance tonight.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_v_United_States_%281950%29
Ratings for today: -
England vs US – Market is forecasting 2.50 goals with at least 1.70 to England, leaving a paltry 0.30 to the US.
South Korea vs Bankrupt Economy – Market is forecasting just 2 goals pretty evenly split. Should be an ‘interesting’ game.
Due to lack of data, i.e. neutral grounds etc. etc. It’s tough to give you a brilliant steer on similar matches in the past. I am much better at league football. There is more data and matches in league footbal, so that is where the bread and butter is. But, most matches similar to England’s have ended in comfortable wins for the stronger team. There is only one example from the, albeit small, data set that I have where the weaker team won and that was only by one goal.
I won’t be trading in-play on the England match as my emotions will probably get in the way, but I will on all other matches that I can.
England lose on penalities
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 7th, 2010
Not a prediction, this happened at the weekend. OK it’s only Soccer Aid, but losing in a penalty shoot out on the Sunday before World Cup week isn’t the best omen is it?
Still at least that’s out of the system, so it can’t happen in the world cup, can it? I can’t figure out why England players in any form can’t win a shoot out. Quite a few years ago I ‘qualified’ for a world cup tournament where I played for England in a football tournament organised by my then employers Compaq. Off we flew to Munich and made our way to the semi finals where, you guessed it, we lost on a penalty shootout. Maybe it’s something that just needs to be shaken out of our nations psyche somehow? I will never why England don’t draft in Matt Le Tissier, he was just awesome at penalty taking. See this article.
"Brian Clough" and Robbie
World cup warm up shocker
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 25th, 2010
You could be forgiven, given the English papers this morning, that I was referring to England’s performance against Mexico. But no, this was Portugal’s electric preparation for the World Cup against the Cape Verde islands. Fielding a full strength squad they thrashed Cape Verde 0-0. You could still back a win for Portugal at 9′s in th dying moments of the match, not sure I have seen those sorts of odds before so late in a draw. Match report follows: -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup-2010/7762662/Portugal-0-Cape-Verde-0-match-report.html
Well done England
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 18th, 2010
Has the feel good spirit started for English sport? The English cricketers comprehensively won the 20/20 Cricket world cup on Sunday, can the English football team respond by wining their world cup? I doubt it, but it’s nice to dream, even if that is all it becomes. Well done to the Cricketers though, not only does it take skill to win something but a little psychological mettle and some luck. The English win was a definite and deserved victory though I feel. I’m not just saying that from bias, it looked to me like a comprehensive victory across the tournament.
I played around in the market but not being a cricket specialist I didn’t achieve anything of any significance. Such was the nature of Englands victory that a collapse never happened and I never feel comfortable chasing short and shortening odds. However, here is the graphs of odds for you for your interest: -
Retrograde motion
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 15th, 2009
Have a look at the England match last night and you could see a classic bit of why the market is efficient, but it isn’t. Immediately after the first England goal it was quite possible to back the draw and see it come in a fair bit. A fair bit as far as the odds were concerned, but not much in implied probability, around 2.5%.
The price on the draw came in after the first goal and this is contrary to what the stats would say, the stats would say the draw would get much less likely, not more. But this actually happens quite often around pivotal points in the market. The reason last night was that Belarus did not lose their shape after that early goal, but kept possession and controlled a lot of the first half. Therefore the market was discounting the possibility they may score. You can’t forecast that ahead of a match, but you can monitor the in play stats to get a better idea of what is happening when it is underway. That’s what I recommend, make your judgement before the match starts but play close attention once it’s underway. I’m already looking forward to a busy summer next year!
