Posts Tagged european
Mission impossible
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 11th, 2011
Scotland travel to Spain this evening in an attempt to pull off the biggest shock in Euro qualification history with a win in the world champions back yard. Before we completely dismiss their chances, lets look at the some stats.
The market is pricing in a dominant Spanish performance with Spain coming out winners by at least two goals on average. In the past there have been some big wins in matches like this, but also a few shocks. Overall I found 211 similar looking matches in my database and of those 15 ended up as away wins or 7%. Scotland are priced at 20′s or around a 5% chance. 162 matches ended up as home wins equating to around 1.30 in digital odds. Spain are priced at 1.20, a little short. Spain should win but the stats hint that with such a strong Scottish incentive to win, the odds on a Spainish win are a little on the skinny side. The market has the overs and unders market spot on according to historic stats.
If you are looking for how such an unlikely win could occur here are a selection of matches where the unlikely did happen, study them for potential clues: -
Away – 2010 – Liverpool vs Blackpool – Result – 1-2
Away – 2010 – Arsenal vs Newcastle – Result – 0-1
Away – 2008 – Porto vs Leixoes – Result – 2-3
Away – 2009 – B Munich vs FC Koln – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – Barcelona vs Espanyol – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – AC Milan vs FC Zurich – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Man Utd vs Leeds – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Tottenham vs Wigan – Result – 0-1
Internationals
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 7th, 2011
I had my own international experiance last night when I met up with Howard Hamilton from Soccermetrics. A dedicated group of stats experts huddled in a pub in Fulham to discuss all things football related. Could have done with a quieter pub!
With so many international matches going off at once, or at best close to each other, you may consider using a generic strategy that you can automate. All this can be done in practice mode as well, so you have no risk of losing money. Have a look at these videos for some ideas: -
Trading multiple markets in one football match
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/176-multiple-markets-football
Linking and trading multiple football matches
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/177-multiples-matches-football
Example overs/under football spreadsheet
http://www.betangel.tv/video/trading-on-football-soccer/210-overunders-ss
When Harry met Jose
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 5th, 2011
Home wins look the order of the day for the first leg of the champions league this evening. It’s difficult to see beyond that, but as we seen already, anything is possible. When Harry last visited Madrid he got mugged, most Spurs fans will hope it doesn’t happen again on the field of play.
The pressure has to be on Real Madrid to get a result at home against Champions league novices Spurs. Spurs best chance of progressing has to be to shut out Real away from home, but their current record means that a lack of goals is far from certain in this match. I’m a little uncertain on things overall so I will aim to work some money into the market before it starts with a view to carrying some risk in play. I think the matches on Wednesday will offer more clear cut opportunities.
The Real Madrid match is priced for three goals with two of those going to Real. It seems logical that there could be an above average goal tally in this match. Inter & Schalke are priced for 2.60 with a fairly firm advantage to Inter. Inter haven’t been that convincing so far.
Arsenal’s price shoots out
The draw for the first knockout stage of the Champions League has been made and of the four English clubs in the competition Arsenal have been dealt the toughest two-legged clash by drawing Barcelona.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the price for the Gunners to win the tournament immediately doubled subsequent to the draw from around 15 to 30. Traders watching the proceedings may have been able to see that Arsenal were to draw Barca, anticipate the shift and beat the hordes to lay and back at the higher price. Well done if you did!
You may remember Lionel Messi’s four goals against Arsenal at the quarter final stage last year and for those who think he is likely to do so again, his odds to be the competition’s top scorer will prove attractive, even at 3.0. Chelsea’s Nicholas Anelka has five CL goals to his name so far this season and considering he will go against big outsiders FC Copenhagen next, his 13.0 to get the golden boot could also shorten after his side’s round of 32 match.
Full draw is as follows: Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk, AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Valencia v Schalke, Inter Milan v Bayern Munich, Lyon v Real Madrid, Arsenal v Barcelona, Marseille v Manchester United, FC Copenhagen v Chelsea.
TV rights to do a Bosman?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on October 4th, 2010
An important case taking place this week in the European courts of justice. If successful the case could led to a deterioration of the money coming into UK football. I suspect there will be many battles to follow if the ruling goes against the premier league.
You can’t help but feel sympathy for people in one territory who are forced to pay much higher costs just because of a line drawn on a map. Given the mobility of information in the modern world, I don’t think this is a situation that can remain tje same in the long term future, whatever the reasons for or against.
Full story: -
European Court rejects gambling restrictions
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on September 8th, 2010
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11234128
The European Court of Justice (ECJ) said German laws that protect state monopolies for gambling were “unjustifiable”.
The ruling could open the way for foreign betting companies to establish a presence in Germany.