Posts Tagged fa cup
FA Cup – Round four winners
Posted by Peter Webb in FA CUP, Football / Soccer on January 28th, 2012
Rather than a prediction this is a glance back. A look if the ‘romance’ of the FA Cup is still alive.
At the start of the third round, premier league teams made up 93.69% of the market. They now make up 80% of the market, the romance of an outsider winning the cup is still alive it would seem.
However, top flight four teams met each other in round three so we will have to delete these for the purposes of what we are looking at. This deletion meant that the total book value of the remainder was 72.37%. We are now in round four and this percentage has increased to 80.27% a shift of 8% or so. If the book % increases between rounds in your selected group, this means it was sensible to back that group, this is why I deleted those other four. No point in backing a definite loser, of which there would have been two if we included those other two matches.
Basically, it didn’t make sense to lay any premier league teams, only back them to progress in aggregate. This is a fairly typically pattern for the FA Cup, especially in the earlier rounds. The only real hope for smaller clubs is if premier league teams knock each other out of contention and then a smaller club flukes a win. You have to go a looooooooong way back to find a season where a lower league team really had a chance. Millwall did well in 2003/4 thanks to a fortuitous route to the final, and in fact the chance of this increases in each round thanks to the random draw. But eventually they have to overcome much stronger opposition and the differential in strength at the top is wider than ever now. Best return to a level stake between round three and four was Leicester by the way.
While it appears to be a bit of a dream to see a lower league team reach later rounds, at least it’s more likely in the FA Cup. If you play in a seeded tournament, like the Tennis grand slams, the competition is unfairly set up to favour the strongest.
So there is a little romance left in the FA Cup, even if it’s only when you see the balls come out of the bag during the draw.
You only kiss your missis on the lips?
Shocking news
Posted by Peter Webb in FA CUP, Football / Soccer on January 7th, 2012
That’s what the lower league clubs will be hoping for today when they step out for the FA Cup third round today.
I quite like the FA CUP as it means more to teams. This means motivation is at a high and it is also non seeded. This means that the big guys can meet in the early rounds and knock each other out leaving some minion to an improbable appearance in the latter stages. It feels like the days of compete shocks and lower league teams winning are over. Man City and Utd are 7.6 & 10.5 respectively, but one of those will not be in the fourth round. So 10% of the market will end up having to back in another selection. If you looking in the middle section of the ‘winner’ market there are some crunchy odds.
However I am mainly on the look out for “shocks” in the early rounds. Whether through injury, illness or apathy a much higher ranked side can get dumped out of the competition. I have my head down this morning looking for probables. At first pass Brighton vs Wrexham and MK Dons vs QPR look promising, though the latter is the much more favourable as they are at home.
Good luck today!
No meeting in the final this year!
FA CUP final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 14th, 2011
Is it just me or does the FA Cup feel like it’s losing is significance? Maybe it’s the dominance by big teams, maybe it’s the fact that this season the premiership and the champions league have pushed it around a little? Anyhow that’s not to detract too much from this famous competition. I am sure either supporters will be rightly proud if their team pull of a win.
The market is pricing in 2.50 goals with an advantage of 0.50 to City, that seems about right. Regardless of the odds past FA Cup finals tell us the matches are very tight affairs with few or no goals and this is especially so in the first half. So my strategy will be based on a low scoring match with any goals likely to occur late on.
FA Cup
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 19th, 2011
Most of this weekends ties look to have a certain amount of inevitability about them. You would expect to see most of the favourites see off the weaker teams, but I do fancy the look of Stoke vs Brighton.
It has a nice set up to it with Stoke doing ‘OK’ in the Premiership but Brighton going great guns in league one. I reckon the seagulls will really be up for this match and will have the belief they can win. Therefore, for this match at least, I will favour positions that profit from a good Brighton performance (EDIT : I should caveat that this is a bit speculative as Brighton at away. At home it is much more favourable). For the others, I find it difficult to look much beyond the favourite, though team sheets could change that.
FA CUP fifth round
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 13th, 2010
I like the later stages of knockout competitions. There is lots to play for and when a goal down and ten minutes are left , it’s all or nothing. These are the places you not only find value but plenty of opportunity and teams playing out of their skin, I love it! Wembley stadium is only a few games away today and anything can happen.
I’ve checked through the odds and nothing wierd has been thrown up. But consider the general picture if you are going to have a play today. With Chelsea and Man City at home it would be a shock to see an upset there, but you may want to be with Stoke if you are looking for one. They have nothing to lose and Man City seem a little fragile. Backing Chelsea at 1.16 is more of a punt than a trade, so look to secondary markets for an opportunity. Cardiff will probably fight a rearguard action and hope to nick something on the break.
Derby, Reading and Southampton are all matches with similar traits. Weaker team playing at home with strong away teams. Both Reading and Southampton will fancy their chances but I’m not so sure about Derby. These matches will probably be played with caution by the stronger away team who don’t want to concede and give the home side an advantage. So I suspect not making mistakes will be the order of the day for the away sides. The longer the match goes on the more the quality should show. An early goal by either side will upset the apple cart.
Both Derby and Southampton’s matches are priced in as low scoring affairs, with little advantage to either side. Usually these matches turn out to scrappy draws. I think the price on the draw should be a little shorter.
Whatever happens, I’ll be on the lookout for late goals, as that is the key characteristic of knockout competitions.
Ratings: -
Chelsea vs. Cardiff Goals: 3.4 Supremacy: 2.8
Man City vs. Stoke Goals: 2.8 Supremacy: 1.8
Reading vs. West Brom Goals: 2.7 Supremacy: -0.1
Southampton vs. Portsmouth Goals: 2.5 Supremacy: -0.1
Derby vs. Birmingham Goals: 2.4 Supremacy: -0.2
Couldn’t make it up
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 24th, 2010
One tie looks set to light up what otherwise appears to be a dull and predictable fifth round FA Cup draw.
I waited with baited breath knowing that there were a few ties that could produce a classic cup match, but was amazed when the one top of my list occurred, Southampton vs Porstmouth. I couldn’t believe it!
This should be a real classic fifth round tie. Local derby, quite a history behind this fixture and a perfect set up. One team seemingly in inexorable decline and another who suffered the same fate now back on the march with full confidence. I’m too close on this one to get involved, as loyaltes will get in the way of sound judgement. But it’s looking set up for an excellent fifth round battle.
FA CUP value
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 23rd, 2010
Where is the value in today’s FA Cup?
To be honest any recommendations would come with a large pinch of salt. While predicting matches in the same league is quite a straightford process, doing the same in a cup competition can be pretty tricky. If there are any matches I am likely to get caught out on, its quite likely to be a cup competition, especially in the early rounds. As such I’ll do some simple things when the screen is full of cup matches. It’s just too risky to use the same model as you do elsewhere.
Looking for upsets and ‘local’ derbies is a good place to hunt. But nothing can replace simple, low risk, trading positions. Once complete you can use this money to take fairly speculative positions that can have good pay off if a shock occurs. This is where I be playing this afternoon.
FA Cup shock
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 12th, 2010
Just watched Coventry take the lead against Portsmouth and the commentator said, ‘The shock is on’.
Portsmouth are not exactly on fire and I think Coventry will fancy their chances. In contrast Portsmouth are really low on morale and just don’t look up for it. The odds seem to fairly reflect that as they are pricing in an even match, so hardly a shock in my books if Coventry win.
A little tit bit for you. Steve Claridge helping commentate this evening on five live, I used to go to the same school as Steve! I used to play in the school football team, alas, I never became a professional footballer. I think I would have enjoyed that.
FA Cup value?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on January 2nd, 2010
In the absence of horse racing today I’ve taken a look at the FA Cup fixtures this afternoon. Subject to team sheets there appears to be a lot of potential value in the Reading vs. Liverpool fixture this afternoon. I’ve explained my full rationale on the forum.
Of course, just seeing value doesn’t mean the result will come in. But over time hunting for value is always a good strategy. If the weather persists in being so cold, I’ll get the chance to explain more.
One for the conspiracy theorists!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on February 4th, 2009
Was it my imagination or did the live TV feed from the Everton vs Liverpool FA Cup match break down right at the critical moment? One minute the match was dragging on to a 0-0 draw and penalties. The next minute the feed is lost and we see adverts and the like. During the ‘outage’ Everton score. Goodness knows how many minutes without a goal and then an outage in the seconds a goal goes in. A coincidence I am sure, but a huge problem for in-play traders and something to keep the conspiracy theorists chattering for some time I think. If you want a fast feed for a football match, listen to the radio, that’s the best way. Watch the pictures on TV but listen to the radio and you will get the best of both worlds.