Posts Tagged final
Well done Djokovic
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 3rd, 2011
Well played and and excellent job so far this year. A remarkable season so far, I wonder what heights he will reach this year?
I managed to call the final just right as it was easy to read and conformed to most entry and exit points. Wimbledon has been great this year. It’s probably the best tournament I have traded in terms of results and very few mistakes. This is rare, as you expect a few howlers through a grand slam.
Now the Tennis tour slowly rolls over the pond to the US. So some late night matches to focus on. I hope you had a good tournament.
Wimbledon 2004
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 2nd, 2011
I’ll never forget the Womans final of 2004 when Sharapova defeated defending champion Serena Williams. It was really the first big win I had on Tennis, which I had traded infrequently up to that point, so it was a bit of a watershed moment. Would be nice to get a result like that today but I’m not going to bet on it! Should be an interesting final though. Kvitova was tipped up to me early on in the tournament but I didn’t act on it. Such is life!
Champions League
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 28th, 2011
Everybody else will be posting about it so I thought I would add my two penneth worth.
An intriguing clash, for once I think I will watch this than trade it.
A neutral venue but Man Utd will practically be at home, so you would have to favour Barca but discount some of the neutrality. I think this is the weakest Man Utd team for a while. Other teams really should have put in a stronger challenge for the premier league this season, but we all know the stories behind that.
These sort of matches are difficult to price, so I would suggest it’s the sort of match where you could find some value once a pattern develops in the match. It’s so delicately balanced and both teams have a huge incentive to win tactics will play an important role.
The market is saying 2.40 goals, slightly above normal for this type of match, with a 0.40 advantage to Barcelona. This is effectively saying this is a very even match but Barcelona are at ‘at home’, they have the equivalent of home advantage. I think it’s more uneven than that, but a lot will depending on whether there is an early goal. That will really set the agenda. I’ve had a delve through my database for similar matches, but they are all a bit inconclusive to be honest.
I would recommend seeing how the opening exchanges are playing out and getting involved from there. It’s difficult to make any firm judgements before the off, but I’m leaning on the side of Barcelona. I am hoping for an entertaining match!
FA CUP final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 14th, 2011
Is it just me or does the FA Cup feel like it’s losing is significance? Maybe it’s the dominance by big teams, maybe it’s the fact that this season the premiership and the champions league have pushed it around a little? Anyhow that’s not to detract too much from this famous competition. I am sure either supporters will be rightly proud if their team pull of a win.
The market is pricing in 2.50 goals with an advantage of 0.50 to City, that seems about right. Regardless of the odds past FA Cup finals tell us the matches are very tight affairs with few or no goals and this is especially so in the first half. So my strategy will be based on a low scoring match with any goals likely to occur late on.
Going Dutch
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 11th, 2010
This isn’t a pick! I think the Spanish have done a good job so far tactically and may test the Dutch defence in a way it hasn’t been tested so far this World Cup. This is a reference to what I will be aiming to do this afternoon. I have Dutchand German friends just round the corner from where I live, but as the German’s didn’t get to the final I will be going Dutch for the final. As I am unlikely to experience the thrill of watching England play for the greatest price there is in International football, so I may as well do it by proxy with a native supporter. It should be a fun afternoon.
The match is priced at 2.20 goals with a 0.36 goal advantage to the Spanish. I think that’s fair given the progress of both teams so far. I would have expected the market to price closer to 2.00 goals so I wonder if the draw could be value at this level. If you look at the stats home advantage is worth 0.40 of a goal so that effectively means it’s an even match but Spain are playing at home. If you don’t believe that, then Spain would be a value lay.
I won’t be trading the final as I will trying to get into the swing of things before the final.
Europa league final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 12th, 2010
Who would put it past Fulham to end the season in glory tonight? Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus and Hamburg have all been beaten by Fulham en route to the final, with just Atletico Madrid now standing in their way.
The match itself is priced for a low scoring affair with a slight edge to Athletico. The market is pricing in a paltry 2.40 goals, which means the draw should be a likely result for 90mins. I predict if you played this match 100 times the average time of the first goal would be around 34 minutes. There is around an 8% chance of a goal between 0-10 minutes.
We found a total of 134 matches on our database which had very similar characteristics to this match. Over these matches an average of 2.33 goals where scored with a 0.50 advantage to the shorter priced team (Ahletico in this case). 45% ended as home wins, 22% away wins and 32% draws. 61% of the time these matches produced under 2.50 goals, pricing the unders market around 1.64.
Trading the draw and scenarios based on a lack of goals / early goals seems a sensible option tonight.