Posts Tagged football
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 16th, 2010
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I will be keep tabs on Blackpool.
Liverpool’s match against Arsenal was interesting and it played out pretty much as expected. Liverpool didn’t want to lose and neither did Arsenal. But Arsenal were lucky in the end to get the point. I still don’t think that Liverpool are title challengers.
Andy Murray did a fantastic job in defeating Nadal and Federer on his way to the title in Toronto. You shouldn’t read too much emphasis on this title. Most elite athletes will focus on key objectives. Nadal will be very focused on the US open in this tournament will have been a prep for that but not the real deal. Both Nadal and Federer will not be too disappointed at losing. But an excellent win nonetheless for Murray given his path to the title.
I got some kudos at the weekend for correctly predicting the result and score from Portsmouth vs Reading match. The local newspaper asked me to do a write up. So I guess I will be asked again until my luck runs out!
Are England Hungary enough?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 11th, 2010
After that rather forgettable world cup campaign do England have enough enthusiasm to munch through some goals against Hungary?
Some new blood is expected to be on the pitch this evening but I can’t muster much enthusiasm for the match. From a betting and trading perspective I don’t like friendlies as it’s difficult to really establish what the true price should be. That makes recommending a really viable and worthwhile strategy incredibly tough. I struggle to participate in things I don’t understand or can’t model and friendlies fall right into that category.
The market is pricing in three goals in total and 2.40 of those to England so it should be a comfortable England win. I think the most ‘interesting’ bet though is from Paddy Power. You can get 5/1 on “Any England player to be caught giving an offensive gesture to the crowd”
First trade of the premiership season
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on August 10th, 2010
It’s not often that the first decent trade of the season occurs before the season has started, but have a look at the odds on the Aston Villa’s first match of the season against West Ham.
With a lack of funds available for transfers it was quite likely O’Neill may get upset, though I am not sure many anticipated his departure. If you read the August edition of Gambling magazine you will see I hinted at clubs where this could happen. To quote from the article “Several teams like Aston Villa, Bolton, Fulham and Sunderland face high
wage bills in terms of their overall level of indebtedness and that could put pressure on these teams.”
The effect of the depature on the team is obviously going to be negative and the market is in the process of discounting that now into the price. It’s probably gone far enough now.
It’s over
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 12th, 2010
Last night finally saw the World Cup end.
It’s been a great couple of months but I’m exhausted, so I am personally glad to see the end of this busy period. It’s really great having such opportunities, but it’s impossible to work flat out like this for any length of time. Time for some recuperation and hindsight. It has been very rewarding though, with last week bringing in my second biggest week ever.
I’ve also gathered lots of data to look at and come up with some new ideas, so I am really looking forward to digging through this and expanding my repertoire. I thought it was interesting last night that just short of £23m was matched on the World cup final last night and that it rose to ‘only’ £34m by the end of 90 minutes. That’s less than I expected.
No sooner than it fades away than it’s back. The football season is already undewary again as the second round of UEFA champions league qualifying takes place this week. Next weekend we have some decent pre-season friendlies. It’s going to be a busy year!
The world cup effect?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 10th, 2010
We noticed recently that the racing markets have picked up a bit recently. So I thought I would look to see if volume had been affected by Wimbledon and the World Cup. I picked a day when England were playing and looked to see if volumes had dropped.
You can see the gap on the graph, but this was mainly caused by the first race not reaching the same volume as the last race, last year. If you adjust the graph for that fact, there is actually little difference between the two sets of data. Basically volumes didn’t drop because of the World Cup. If felt like that in the markets, so I think I can summarise by saying that while the volume didn’t drop the type of activity did seem to change. It could be a coincidence but it certainly felt different. Now these markets are at or near their end things seem to have reverted back to their old pattern.
An interesting observation.
Germany vs Spain
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 7th, 2010
The market is priced for 2.40 goals or thereabouts with a 1.20 goals to Spain. The Germans have stormed through to the semi final whereas the Spanish appear to have ground out results but both teams slipped up in the group stages.
Some interesting notes I’ve copied from elsewhere: -
- Victory at Euro 2008 was only Spain’s second win in eight competitive games against the Germans.
- Germany are unbeaten in three previous World Cup games against the Spanish.
- Overall, the two nations have met 20 times: Germany have won eight and Spain six, with six draws.
- Germany have reached this stage in six of the last eight World Cups.
- While Italy beat the Germans in 1970 and 2006, it is 52 years since a side other than the Azzurri defeated them at the semi-final stage.
I’ve always been a keen advocate of psychology over stats and I think the Germans definitely have the wind behind them. The Spanish have the weight of expectation on them as they are the first Spainish team to reach the semi finals of the World Cup. By contrast this will be Germany’s 11th world cup semi final and most German’s wouldn’t have expected that this time around.
I’m tempted to plump for a contrary trade by favouring the German’s to win a low scoring contest.
Uruguay vs Netherlands
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on July 6th, 2010
I think you would have to fancy the Netherlands in this match, which the market is doing by one goal. But it is also pricing in very few goals, just short of 2.30. So the market summarises this as a tight match with the Dutch should win.
I would secretly like a Germany / Netherlands final as it would add some serious spice to the mix, but I suspect Uruguay will feel they have an equal chance. A lot rests on Forlan, with a couple of suspensions this makes the match a stiffer task than they would like. If they do win, it will probably be through tactical nous. At least we know how the last penalty would be taken!
How many times do I have to say 'Don't dive!'
More about penalties
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 29th, 2010
Following the recent chatter on penalties, I note the absence of them so far! Somebody posted on the forum about a very useful tool that you can use.
I didn’t know this existed, so thanks to the poster for finding it. It confirms what I was talking about, but more importantly it could prove very useful if a match goes to penalties. This is because it allows you to examine all previous results from the penalty takers and savers. Very useful.
Ouch, that’s embarrassing
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
I don’t think it needs any more comment really does it? Apparently the English league is the most competitive and highly paid in the world with some of the best individuals. And individuals they will remain!!!
I’ve consoled myself by smashing into a few horse races that followed the match, sorry about that! But one of them was the Irish Derby, too good to miss. Grabbing a few hundred will allow me to drown my sorrows tonight.
Obviously blatter is happy to see this time and time again
Coin flippers re-union at 3pm
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
Had a look at THE match stats this morning.
The market has priced in just a shade over two goals for the Germany vs England match. England have a 0.10 goal advantage. The market is pricing in a tight nervous affair where one goal could be enough, but a draw is the most likely result. Obviously if you share two goals amongst two teams then a draw is very likely.
I sense a nervous two hours come 3pm but having read the Germany press this morning, putting the rally calls aside, Germany seem equally nervous after there last two performances. This is where managers and tactics can make a big difference.
I won’t be taking a position during the match for obvious reasons, but will be trading pre-off. Good luck if you are having a go. Going to be a great day in the UK for watching the match, will it be a memorable one?
The maths behind penalities – Part Two
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 27th, 2010
Yesterday we saw that goalkeepers are basically glory seekers, or at least showing that they understand the psychology of failing the right way. Today we give a final answer on what David James should do if faced by a German penalty today.
Often the best way to look at something is to turn it on it’s head. When we looked at penalities we saw that while kicks are randomly distributed, the goalkeepers actions are not. So lets look at when they get it right.
In the sample we were looking at, 32/268 penalties were ‘saved’, around 11%. Saved shots were reasonably equally distributed whether the taker sent them left right or down the middle. But, when you combine this with goalkeeping stats one thing really stands out. If the goalkeeper stands in the middle and a shot is sent in roughly that direction, it was saved 60% of the time. This is more than double the rate at which a goalkeeper who guesses right can save a kick. Obviously if a shot is sent left and the goalkeeper goes right the strike rate is err.. zero.
Whichever way you look at it, standing still is actually a good tactic. It’s difficult to reach the ball in a far corner from a good penalty taker, so it’s better to captialise on nervous takers who don’t want to risk missing. Of course this all depends on one penalty being independant from another. Let on that you are going to stand still and you increase the chance that the ball will not go down the centre. That is where it gets more complex, should your strikers assume the goalkeeper will dive or stand still? Logic tells you to send it into the corner but reality indicates that at least half the time the goalkeeper will dive that way. It all comes down to psychology. With England so fragile I would be tempted to suggest, just keep in on target and hit it hard. James should stand still and be prepared to get it in the neck for ‘not trying’. That should do the trick.
If you want to do more research ahead of today’s match I suggest you visit: -
http://www.penaltyshootouts.co.uk/
For the definite way to take a penalty, I’ll leave it to the master.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/2275796.stm
The maths behind penalities – Part One
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 26th, 2010
Groups stages, tight games, can’t afford to lose, Germany, England. This must only add up to one thing, penalties!
Are we going to suffer again, will there be the same agony as in prior years? Penalties is another area I have looked at and I think the findings may be of use to any prospective England goalkeeper facing a penalty, football traders may also benefit.
First off, you can reach some easy conclusions. From spot to net, the ball will travel just 12 yards and it is estimated that this will happen in about 0.30 seconds. Stikers should score from this distance! This also forces each goalkeeper to make a decision about what to do, BEFORE, the ball is struck; he has to anticipate which way to dive. He could dive left, right or stand still.
This is where a subtle peice of psychology comes into play, it is what I shall call the action / inaction bias. Imagine the scenario, you know that any goal in a match in the knockout stages will be significant and that by saving a penalty you will almost certainly have a significant impact on the match and on your status. What do you do? If you stand in the middle of the goal like a lemon you could be a national pariah if a goal is conceded. Dive spectacularly and tip it around the post and the praise will come flooding in. What happens is that the goalkeeper ends up facing the same dilemma and regret pang as a gambler or trader. The goalkeeper is fearing the negative consequences of his actions, rather than making a logical and reasoned choice. This fear is so overwhelming it has a strange effect. In 286 matches analysed, the goalkeeper dived in one direction or another 268 times. He went for glory 94% of the time. Did the goalkeeper make a logical choice? To do this you need to analyse where the ball went.
Over the same 286 matches the penalty taker more or less evenly distributed the shots left, right and centre either by design or accident. In the data I looked at there was a bias to the right hand side but there could be many reasons for that. Excluding the bias it was a random shot choice. Therefore the goal keepers definitely were making a sub-optimal decision by choosing to dive so often. Penalty takers struck the ball down the middle nearly 29% of the time, goalkeepers only stood there around 6% of the time! If you are a goalkeeper, standing idly would appear to be a decent choice but as shots were equally distributed then any random choice would be sensible.
If you are a striker then you should engage in some gamesmanship to encourage the goalkeeper to dive, then send the ball down the middle. But there is more logic to taking and saving and that’s what I will cover tomorrow….
That match
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 23rd, 2010
Given the gloom and doom I am almost tempted to back England this evening. But much of that depends on price and what the team looks like when it is announced. The match is priced for 2.56 goals with a 1.60 advantage to England, yeah right! England just haven’t looked a potent threat upfront and I think it’s optimistic to imagine a free flowing high scoring game, lets hope I am wrong!
If you look at the world cup so far though, the market has forecasted around 2.30-2.40 goals a game. On average, I am missing a few matches and not totally up to date, there has only been an average of slightly less than two. This is a low scoring competition! I had forecast this a few months ago when I wrote an article for a magazine. In 1998 there was an average of 2.67 goals, 2.52 in 2002 and 2.30 in 2006. This tournament could see a new low. I suspect this is just due to the fact that the teams are much more competitive now thanks to so many players whose home team is not even in their country of origin now.
Anyhow, come on England!
Not a joke
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 19th, 2010
Honestly, not a joke; but this is the book I am reading at the moment just before I go to bed. It’s actually a really good read and highly recommended for sports traders!
It does what it says on the tin
1.05 about to be turned over?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 19th, 2010
Should England pack up and come home? Traded at 1.05 to qualify last night must have those backers quivering. After failing to beat Algeria, which most teams in the English football league could surely achieve, has there ever been a more defining moment in English national football?
For many, many years we have had loads of great individuals but seemingly no team. Last night showed this up in clear light again and surely the time has come to stop picking individuals and go for a real footballing team. Everybody knows Gerrard and Lampard can’t play together. The Man Utd team is geared around supplying Rooney with chances, England is not. Last night was just a completely inept performance on a scale I have not seen before. At least Gerrard could see that and hung his head while admitting it wasn’t good enough, the less said about Rooney the better. With little to lose why not go radical and put Defoe and Crouch upfront, drop Rooney, Lampard and inject some real energy into the game. If we put out another lame performance, then I think we should scrap the whole thing and start again, we just can’t go on like this.
Over-reaction, maybe, but I did wait till this morning to write this and I think lots of people feel the same.
Some people paid a lot of money to watch that Wayne.
Blunt start by England
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 12th, 2010
In fact, most of the matches have been pretty blunt, which seems to often be the case in the world cup early matches. England had a great chance to really get off to a good start after taking the lead so early, but I don’t feel there were aggressive enough going forward. England now need to convincingly win the next two games or they could end up on the wrong side of the draw.
No doubt the following image will sum up the match in the press tomorrow morning.
How much!
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 17th, 2010
It was interesting to read this article today which details just how much money each premiership club collects each year.
It’s amazing to think that any club could go into administration with so much money being dished out each year. Couple this with parachute payments and it seems that the premier league is clearly set to pull away from the old football league in terms of development. There is an interesting graphic here that clearly illustrates the amount of the money handed out.
You should read this in conjunction with an older article here. A stark contrast to when the premier league started. Back then, in the 92/93 season, Nottingham Forest were relegated and received £37,055 for their troubles. This year Portsmouth received nearly £32m for the same feat! Money paid out has risen from nearly £10m back then, to an astonishing £160m in 2010.
FA Cup Final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 15th, 2010
A curious one this year. Chelsea are on for the double and will surely try their best to get it. Pompey have performed miracles to get the final and wont want to lose it. Chelsea are at a very short price so I’d be nervous mopping up at that price.
Curiously we have profiled this match and it has come out very similar to the Chelsea vs Stoke match on the 25/4/10. Of course Chelsea won this 7-0! All similar matches were easy wins for the stronger side, no surprise there. If you tweak the parameters a bit you end up with B Munich vs Hannover which also ended up 7-0, Barcelona vs Malaga 6-0 and Real Madrid vs Zaragoza which was also 6-0. The market is pricing in 3.20 goals and 2.60 of them to Chelsea. There have been a few draws here and there but the market is discounting a very one sided final which shouldn’t be a surprise considering it’s top vs bottom. I guess the only real comparison you can point at would be Man U vs Milwall a few years ago which ended 3-0 but even that isn’t a direct comparison.
I’m probably going to go for trading any unquoted on this match. I can’t see Chelsea letting this slip, but it is a cup final and Pompey have had a bit of a fairytale route to the final, so a bit of money on big outside odds probably isn’t a terrible idea.
Europa league final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 12th, 2010
Who would put it past Fulham to end the season in glory tonight? Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus and Hamburg have all been beaten by Fulham en route to the final, with just Atletico Madrid now standing in their way.
The match itself is priced for a low scoring affair with a slight edge to Athletico. The market is pricing in a paltry 2.40 goals, which means the draw should be a likely result for 90mins. I predict if you played this match 100 times the average time of the first goal would be around 34 minutes. There is around an 8% chance of a goal between 0-10 minutes.
We found a total of 134 matches on our database which had very similar characteristics to this match. Over these matches an average of 2.33 goals where scored with a 0.50 advantage to the shorter priced team (Ahletico in this case). 45% ended as home wins, 22% away wins and 32% draws. 61% of the time these matches produced under 2.50 goals, pricing the unders market around 1.64.
Trading the draw and scenarios based on a lack of goals / early goals seems a sensible option tonight.
Would you back the draw at 1.30?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 8th, 2010
If a football match was near the end, perhaps ten or fifteen minutes or so, 1.28 may represent value. But before the match has started, no way! Mathematically speaking it’s highly improbable for the draw to be priced at 80% certainty in a fair match. However these strange odds seem to occur often at the end of the Italian football season. Not all of them play out as the odds intend but it’s certainly very strange to keep seeing such massive anomalies. We have another one for Sunday, make of it what you will.
Start of season, end of season
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 24th, 2010
As you are probably aware from my posts, there is nothing more I like that a football match with a strong incentive behind it. At the start of a season, form is difficult to spot early on. Though promotion and relegation isnt’ so tricky. But it’s the end of the season when things really begin to happen. With many matches classed as ‘six pointers’ for one reason or another, this time of year has always been a fertile hunting ground. Wear your hunting hat now and you will benefit significantly.
In horse racing we are in the early flat turf season. This also presents opportunity, as there is often a lack of form. This lack of form means that people are looking for any clues as to how a horse will perform. If money is coming for or against a horse with little form, there is often a tendency to follow that money and re-inforce any trend. This tends to make the early turf season races, especially maidens, very ‘swingy’. Trends can be persistent and extensive at this time of year. The early part of yesterday was a spectacularly swingy day.
Keeping an eye open for either opportunities can be very rewarding.
Make cash from ash
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 20th, 2010
I hope you are not one of many being inconvenienced by the erupting volcano in Iceland, or the national air bodies, depending on how you see it. The office is quieter this Monday thanks to the failure of quite a few people failing to return from overseas after the school Easter holidays. My wife spoke to a friend last night, still stuck in the US with little hope of return this week. Scheduled ETA at least two weeks away, I think the airline industry and the economy needs this like a hole in the head. I live under very busy airspace so it’s been very novel seeing no planes in the sky aside from the occasional paraglider or small light aircraft, I will enjoy it while I can. But I think the paranoia may have spread a little too far as the local RAF helicopter base doesn’t appear to be flying either and the last time I looked helicopters didn’t go past 20,000 feet.
Still, where ever there is something major going on, there is always opportunity on the flip side somewhere. I think the same could be the case in the sports markets too. I am currently looking at the sports that involve travel to see how they could be affected. Formula 1 cars are currently parked a long way from Spain at the moment and may not get the chance to be refitted for the next race if they can’t travel soon. European football matches could also experiance some interesting additional shapes, given that air travel could be ruled out. I am sure there are many more but these are just a couple of examples of things you should be looking at right now. It’s often the unusual things that deliver some great opportunties at these moments.
I notice the BBC have summarised some of the problems on this page.
It's not just ash that drifts
Bit of a Kop out
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 17th, 2010
No surprise to see Tom Hicks and George Gillett exit stage left at Liverpool. Struggling to refinance their debt they have to find a viable exit, but it’s a terrible time to sell. Liverpool are heading for a poor season and the attractiveness of the club must have been dented by their lack of success, not only this season but in prior seasons also. For the amount of wages they pay they really should be performing better, but I am sure that the constant chatter in the background about everything other than football hasn’t helped.
The problem Liverpool face is that money talks big time in football now and if they can’t get any success this season they will have less to spend next year, unless they find a massive benefactor. If they spend less, the correlation of money to success is so high in this division that they will continue to struggle. When I did some research on the funding of clubs the correlation of wage bill to league position was staggering. It has proved a very reliable predictor this year in the promotion and relegation markets. It’s a sad fact, but unless Liverpool find success or a billionaire with loose pockets , they could find themselves slipping out of the big four bracket for some time. The only solace is that thanks to the recession and tighter FIFA rules it’s unlikely that many new Chelsea’s or Man City’s will appear in the next few years to supplant the incumbents. It’s going to be an interesting end to the season, one which start to determine next season before it’s even started.
I appear to have forgotten my wallet
Italian end of season matches
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on April 13th, 2010
Since my first posting some time ago there have been plenty more Italian matches with strange prices. However, not all have ended up with the predicted result. There appears to be a process of reversion to mean going on! I was lucky on this one, as rather than backing the draw I opted to back Lazio, who went on to win. Because of the propensity for these matches to be unpredictable I wonder whether an element of this unusual pricing is the madness of crowds and / or the net effect of lots of arbing with naive bookmakers. Having done some research these things appear to be more common place in Italian football than I suspected. Whatever, it’s a curious phenomena but one that is proving profitable if you are aware of where that all important next goal is likely to come from.
Even odder
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 22nd, 2010
Thanks for all the people that emailed in about the Chievo vs Catania match. Many different views and opinions on this match. Also thanks to my Italian friends that got in contact to talk about this particular game.
No surprise that the match ended up 1-1 as strongly predicted by the market. 95% of all the money on the match was traded on the draw which is pretty much unheard of in a soccer match. There is vigorous discussion on the forum about this match so I’m not going to try and repeat or summarise that here. Just glad I didn’t lay the draw on this one!
Very odd
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 20th, 2010
Not often I talk about Italian football but this one can’t go by without comment.
Chievo vs. Catania
Cheivo are 3.15 to win this match, nothing unusual there. But the really unusual thing this that the draw is priced at odds on. You don’t see that very often, in fact, you never see it. Draw’s occur fairly randomly and the odds for the draw is one of the easiest things to predict. I’ve never seen fit to predict a draw at odds on, as there is virtually no scenario where you think that it could possibly be value to back at this price. Neither could you say that backing 1-1 as the correct score is value at 2.5, yet both the draw and 1-1 are coming in for spectacular support in this match. Make your own mind up as to what is happening here. Let’s just say that the pricing of this match is highly unusual.
Europa League
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 18th, 2010
More fun planned this evening with an infinite range of permutations available on each match. But the two English matches do look the most interesting.
Fulham are 3-1 down, but a home goal would create a massive difference to that score line and you get the feeling anything is possible with Fulham. I wouldn’t bet against Fulham pulling it off this evening. The match is priced for 2.6 goals with a slight advantage to the home team. I think that’s too low given the scenarios available.
A team I would be tempted to bet against is Liverpool. OK they thumped Portsmouth the other day, but their confidence is fragile and I don’t know many teams that wouldn’t fancy having a go at them at the moment. A slip up in defence tonight could shred their nerves to the limit or an edgy start and the crowd will get no doubt pass their feelings to the players. Defeat for Benitez could spell the beginning of the end. Liverpool are at quite a short price to defeat Lille and are priced for 2.8 goals with a 1.50 goal advantage. While they should win, I am sure Lille will look to catch them on the break and change the entire complexion of the tie. I don’t think it will take much to do that so I’ll be looking for an upset.
If you are new to football trading, try trading before off. This will give you some risk free cash to splurge in play!
Broke it like Beckham
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on March 15th, 2010
It was sad to see Beckham break down in that match last night. The good news for England fans is that it doesn’t seem to have affected the odds on England winning the world cup. Though at 7.00 these seem pretty short I think!
I really felt Beckham’s pain last night because I have suffered the same injury, I hope his doesn’t have the impact it had on me. I used to be very sporty and where ever I went I always had a pair of trainers packed in my bag. I managed to pretty much “run the world” and completed hundreds of long distance races and became a reasonable runner. I could run a half marathon in the 80′s.
One day my running career came to an abrupt end. Pushing off from the floor to ‘bust a move’ while dancing with the kids, my achilles went. Not being a sporting superstar, I couldn’t fly to Sweden the next day to get it repaired. Despite trying to get a full recovery, it never healed effectively and my achilles is now so tight and it stops me from doing all those sports I used to love. Running is completely out of the question.
I really miss being able to compete in sport and its a very tough on the psychology when you want to do things, but just can’t. Let’s hope this isn’t the end to Beckham’s career, it would be a sad way to end it.