Posts Tagged french open
Federer loses French Open final
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 5th, 2011
I’ve deliberately titled this post in a manner that is completely dissimilar to the current headlines out there. Well done to Nadal winning the French open; but if you look at the flow of the match from a statistical viewpoint, it was more like Federer who actually lost it in my opinion.
It was a fairly tight match, till the last set at least, 7-5, 7-6, 5-7, 6-1. You would expect the younger player of the two to do better in a tight match and the longer a match goes that has to be your leaning. Over all Nadal won 143 vs 130 points. For most the first set Federer was on top of the points tally, but the failure to close the set out was a real blow.
Set one and set two Nadal had 9 winners vs 15 & 18 from Federer; you can see Federer played some good shots. But the enforced error tally shows a different story. 17 for Nadal in the first two sets and 39 for Federer. For the third set Federer improved and the stats read 11/16 winners and 8/7 unforced errors, this set was farily even. But Federer couldn’t find any winners in the fourth and his error count went right back up. OK Nadal obviously had something to do with the way Federer played, but it was mainly errors on Federers behalf that cause the defeat. If you want a key to demolition job in the last set, Nadal’s return of Federers serve was at it’s peak at this point; he definately won that last set!
Now the Tennis circuit moves off clay and onto grass. Time for short points, power and the brutal servers to take centre stage.
Fab Friday
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 3rd, 2011
Today, we have a decent looking day ahead of us on the sporting front.
The Epsom derby meeting kicks off today and the Oaks is always a reminder of the first race that Betfair took bets on back in June 2000. To be honest I haven’t really ripped through this Friday for a few years. So I’ll be taking things careful until I get a feel for the day.
At the French Open the top four men in the world battle it out in the semi finals and it’s such a tantalising prospect. All of them have excellent reasons to want to win their respective matches. Djokovic hasn’t played for four days but will highly motivated to win against Federer who has been playing well recently. Murray has been looking the most complete he ever has, but is still ‘injured’. It’s all set up for two great matches. It could end up a bit distracting for me but I’ve already done the maths and know my possible entry and exit points in the matches and will have two TV’s running today in an attempt to keep up with the action.
Should be a great day.
French Open Tennis
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 23rd, 2011
Looking forward to getting stuck into the Tennis this week, especially with the football season now behind us.
Nadal has an easier draw potentially than Djokovic so Djokovic is right up against it if he is going to maintain his amazing start to 2011.
Don’t forget to use Tennis trader to frame your upside (or downside) when trading a tennis match.
Murray vs Gasquet
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 24th, 2010
I know British hopefuls will be dissapointed if Murray goes at in the first round at Roland Garros. But at the current market price Murray is priced at only being a couple of percent better than Gasquet. That makes it a tough match for Murray. Nadal is at very short prices to add a fifth title.
If Murray wins the first set then expect his price to reach 1.28, if Gasquet wins Murray would drift to 2.36.
Doing a Wozniacki
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 23rd, 2010
I am now fully prepared for the French Open tennis which starts today. Watched some Tennis last week and saw Wozniacki retire, again, through injury. As part of my preparation, I dusted off my fly swatter and started playing Tennis again. On the hottest day of year so far, I thrashed around the count waving my arms at random. It’s nice to play a sport that you want to get involved in on the markets, you often learn lots and get some prompts.
The first set was great and I won it 6-0, ball flying all over the place, opponent run ragged, thoughts of challenging Federer. Second set I was 4-0 up and cruising when I completely fell apart and ended up losing the set on a tie break. It was a nice reminder of the sort of things you should watch out for when trading Tennis. How could I lose from such a dominant position?
Two main reasons, outside of lousy Tennis. First was I’m not as fit as I used to be and probably not as fit as my opponent. I knew this so worked hard to start to get as big an advantage as I could, that worked. I was relying on my opponents psychology working against him after that first set. Unfortunately I am also carrying an injury, my achilles. As I moved through the second set, this started to really nag me along with my fitness and I started to lose my sharpness. The 4-0 lead was flattering as well, as each game was pretty close. It just turned out that I played some good shots at the critical moments. If you would have analysed the points won you, would have seen that I wasn’t really that far ahead. I did the stats when I got home and if you assume we were two evenly matched players, I would have been trading at 1.01. Knowing how I felt, I would have happily laid a few quid against myself!
A silly shot on my serve handed a break to my opponent, he won his serve and suddenly it was 4-2. I pushed to finish the match, but made some errors when going for the winner and lost serve again. It would have been easier just to return the ball and wait for his error, but suddenly is was 4-4. Now psychology was in reverse and despite a rally I was unable to save the set, my opponent had the momentum. With my heel feeling ever more stressed I did a Wozniacki and ‘retired’ at 1-1. Only if the first set is not complete will a market be voided, so on this occasion I would have hacked off a few 1.01 backers! Wozniakci’s retirement last week was quite predictable. If you are about to play in a grand slam the following week, why risk it?
Anyhow, Tennis trading is great fun and thanks to the unique scoring system can provide some great swings, as I hope my anecdotal evidence has proven! Good luck with the French Open!
New balls please
Biggest shock ever?
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on June 7th, 2009
This is what could happen today when Soderling steps out at Roland Garros to compete for the title of French open champion. Before the start of the tournament £1371 was traded at 1000 on Soderling. There is £1.3m riding on the outcome of this match at 1000′s.
I am all green on any winner on the final thanks in main to Nadal’s exit. Given the starting odds of Soderling it would be great if he won but spreading my profit is more likely a sensible move. I remember very well the last person I backed to win a tennis tournament at 1000. It was Maria Sharapova at Wimbledon, it would be great to Soderling pull it off!
Murray serves up another great trade
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 31st, 2009
If the Tennis carries on like this we could be in for a cracking warm up to Wimbledon. Murray again stuttered at the start of this match today, but fought back to take the first set. A weary Tipsarevic then retired after losing. Very similar scenario to the previous Murray trade. Murray is on court again today, so worth taking a look in what is likely to be a more competitive match.
In clay trading
Posted by Peter Webb in Bet Angel on May 28th, 2009
Great news, it’s the French Open. Your last chance to practice your Tennis trading before Wimbledon. While you are having a practice take a look at Bet Angel’s Guardian feature which is perfect for Tennis training. I’ve uploaded a video here: -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4X25nbH7vA
Murray served up a good start trading opportunity with a roller-coaster against an opponent ranked well below him. Starting at 1.05 and out of sorts, Murray sort of stumbled through the early part of the match with a bunch of unforced errors.This handed the initiative to Starace.
At 1.05 Murray looked a certainty but I’d always prefer to lay at this level. I didn’t though, as it was early on in the tournament and I didn’t expect a struggle. What I did do however was sit and wait for a turning point. With Starace heading for a 2-1 set lead I decided to get involved. I was really looking for Murray to get his game together, grab a few points or games and for Starace to drop his head. Sport is all about confidence and being in the zone. If you reach that point or fall out of it, things change.
I missed the exact turning point, but managed to back Murray at 2.14 when he seemed to step up a gear with some demoralising shots against his opponent. From there Murray really started to play better and better. My exact entry was determined by the change in mood on court but equally importantly, the up and downside risk. At the point I got involved Starace was priced to win the second set. If he did, my downside was limited but if Murray, ranked 100 places higher, turned things around the price would collapse back towards the starting price of 1.05 pretty quickly. That’s exactly what happened. Once Murray found his gear things really started to motor and Starace lost his way. When the price reached 1.07 I laid the trade back into the market for a fully green profit of 100% of my stake. I greened at this level for a similar reason as at the top. Here the upside was limited and the downside more prominent. As the match progresses the swings get wilder so for the sake of a few pound it was worth closing out. I also needed to get out for a walk or something for lunch. The road from 1.07 to 1.01 was going to take a bit of time and it didn’t make sense to hang on given the risk profile. Considering all the above it made sense to close at that point.
In all an excellent trade, Andy, I owe you another beer.
